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The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices

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  • Steven B. Kamin
  • Mario Marazzi
  • John W. Schindler
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    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the import prices, and thus inflation performance, of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global import prices has been, while non- negligible, fairly modest. We identify a statistically significant effect of US imports from China on US import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in US GDP, the ultimate impact on US consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on US producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that, since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 0.25 percentage point or less on average. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 (05)
    Pages: 179-201

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:14:y:2006:i:2:p:179-201

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576

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    Cited by:
    1. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung," Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy info:hdl:10419/28829, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    3. Fabrice Defever, 2011. "Incomplete Contracts and the Impact of Globalization on Consumer Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 3484, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Raphael Anton Auer & Andreas M. Fischer, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Wage Import Competition on U.S. Inflationary Pressure," Working Papers 2008-18, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2010. "Vertically globalized production structure in New Keynesian Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 198-216, August.
    6. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.

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