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The Effect of Low-Wage Import Competition on U.S. Inflationary Pressure

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  • Raphael Anton Auer
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

This paper develops a new methodology to estimate the effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. producer prices. We first document that when low-wage countries grow, their exports to the United States increase most in labor-intensive sectors. Second, we demonstrate that the temporary and relative component of imports induced by labor intensity and output growth in low-wage countries is orthogonal to U.S. supply and demand shocks and can, therefore, be utilized to identify the causal impact of import competition on prices. In a panel covering 325 manufacturing industries from 1997 to 2006, we find that imports from nine low-wage countries are associated with strong downward pressure on U.S. prices. When these nations capture 1% U.S. market share, producer prices decrease by 3.1%, which is nearly fully accounted by a 2.4% increase in labor productivity and a 0.4% decrease in markups. Overall, we find that imports from the examined countries have decreased U.S. manufacturing PPI inflation by around two percentage points each year.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2008-18.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2008-18

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Keywords: Low-Wage Country Import Competition; Comparative Advantage; Globalization;

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References

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  1. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  2. David E. Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization And The Gains From Variety," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 327, Econometric Society.
  3. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
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  6. Davin Chor, 2008. "Unpacking Sources of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach," Working Papers 13-2008, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
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  14. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  16. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond Robertson, 2008. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 14497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, . "The age of the dragon: Chinese competition and the pricing behavior of the Italian firms," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  2. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M & Kropf, Andreas, 2011. "The arrival of cheap goods: Measuring the impact of Chinese import competition on Nordic prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 8544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Raphael Anton Auer & Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2011. "Low-Wage Import Competition, Inflationary Pressure,and Industry Dynamics in Europe," Working Papers 2011-09, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Chevassus-Lozza, Emmanuelle & Gaigne, Carl & Le Mener, Leo, 2012. "Does input trade liberalization boost downstream firms’ exports? Theory and firm-level evidence," Working Papers 126946, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
  6. Raphael A. Auer, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3759, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Auer, Raphael & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M, 2010. "Globalization and Inflation in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 11-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Anna Maria MAYDA & NAKANE Masato & STEINBERG, Chad & YAMADA Hiroyuki, 2012. "Exposure to Low-wage Country Imports and the Growth of Japanese Manufacturing Plants," Discussion papers 12038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Stefano Federico, 2012. "Industry dynamics and competition from low-wage countries: evidence on Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 879, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2011. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," CEP Discussion Papers dp1000, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2010. "The non-monetary side of the global disinflation," Working Papers halshs-00564957, HAL.
  13. Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2010. "The non-monetary side of the global disinflation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564957, HAL.
  14. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  15. Raphael Anton Auer, 2010. "Are Imports from Rich Nations Deskilling Emerging Economies? - Human Capital and the Dynamic Effects of Trade," Working Papers 2010-18, Swiss National Bank.

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