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The Return to Capital in China

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Author Info
Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Yingyi Qian
Abstract

China's investment rate is one of the highest in the world, which naturally leads one to suspect that the return to capital in China must be quite low. Using the data from China's national accounts, we estimate the rate of return to capital in China. We find that the aggregate rate of return to capital averaged 25% during 1978-1993, fell during 1993-1998, and has become flat at roughly 20% since 1998. This evidence suggests that the aggregate return to capital in China does not appear to be significantly lower than the return to capital in the rest of the world. We also find that the standard deviation of the rate of return to capital across Chinese provinces has fallen since 1978.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12755.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12755

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Perkins, Dwight Heald, 1988. "Reforming China's Economic System," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 601-45, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "New capital estimates for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-185. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Dollar & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Das (Wasted) Kapital: Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China," NBER Working Papers 13103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2007. "FDI and credit constraints : firm level evidence in China," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne bla07009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Raphael Auer & Andreas M. Fischer, 2008. "The effect of trade with low-income countries on U.S. industry," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mattlin, Mikael, 2007. "The Chinese government's new approach to ownership and financial control of strategic state-owned enterprises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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