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China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries

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  • Gordon H. Hanson
  • Raymond Robertson

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing. Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy. Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs. We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China's export growth. Our results suggest that had China's export supply capacity been constant over the 1995-2005 period, demand for exports would have been 0.8% to 1.6% higher in the 10 countries studied. Thus, even for the developing countries most specialized in export manufacturing, China's expansion has represented only a modest negative shock.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14497.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Publication status: published as China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries , Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond Robertson. in China's Growing Role in World Trade , Feenstra and Wei. 2010
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14497

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2007. "Is China's FDI coming at the expense of other countries?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-172, June.
  2. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Santos Silva, Joao & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 508, Econometric Society.
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  8. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Micco, Alejandro & Molina, Danielken, 2008. "How sensitive are Latin American exports to Chinese competition in the U.S. market ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4497, The World Bank.
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