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China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries

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  • Gordon H. Hanson
  • Raymond Robertson

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing. Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy. Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs. We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China's export growth. Our results suggest that had China's export supply capacity been constant over the 1995-2005 period, demand for exports would have been 0.8% to 1.6% higher in the 10 countries studied. Thus, even for the developing countries most specialized in export manufacturing, China's expansion has represented only a modest negative shock.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14497.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Publication status: published as China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries , Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond Robertson. in China's Growing Role in World Trade , Feenstra and Wei. 2010
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14497

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  1. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings, Econometric Society 508, Econometric Society.
  4. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Micco, Alejandro & Molina, Danielken, 2008. "How sensitive are Latin American exports to Chinese competition in the U.S. market ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4497, The World Bank.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2005. "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 11335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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