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China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries

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  • Gordon H. Hanson
  • Raymond Robertson

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing. Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy. Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs. We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China's export growth. Our results suggest that had China's export supply capacity been constant over the 1995-2005 period, demand for exports would have been 0.8% to 1.6% higher in the 10 countries studied. Thus, even for the developing countries most specialized in export manufacturing, China's expansion has represented only a modest negative shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14497.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Publication status: published as Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond Robertson. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," in Robert C. Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, editors, "China's Growing Role in World Trade" University of Chicago Press (2010)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14497

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. David E. Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization And The Gains From Variety," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 327, Econometric Society.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2005. "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
  6. Ernesto Lopez-Cordova & Alejandro Micco & Danielken Molina, 2008. "How Sensitive are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market," Journal of LACEA Economia, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
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