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How sensitive are Latin American exports to Chinese competition in the U.S. market ?

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  • Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto
  • Micco, Alejandro
  • Molina, Danielken

Abstract

This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. The analysis considers the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United States by a fifth, although since other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent. Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent), but Latin America would see its share of the U.S. market decline by around 2 percent (2.5 percentage points). China's gains would come mainly at the expense of other regions of the world.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4497.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4497

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Free Trade; Markets and Market Access; Trade Policy; Debt Markets;

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  1. Ximena Clark & David Dollar & Alejandro Micco, 2004. "Port Efficiency, Maritime Transport Costs and Bilateral Trade," NBER Working Papers 10353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Xiaodong Lu & Ronglin Li, 2010. "South-South cooperation: is there a foundation in trade?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 221-234, December.
  2. Álvarez, Roberto & Claro, Sebastián, 2009. "David Versus Goliath: The Impact of Chinese Competition on Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 560-571, March.
  3. Roberto Álvarez & Sebastián Claro, 2006. "The china price: evidence and some implications," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 117-140, December.
  4. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond Robertson, 2010. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 137-159 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Majlesi, Kaveh, 2014. "Labor Market Opportunities and Women's Decision Making Power within Households," Working Papers 2014:4, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  6. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2013. "Chinese Export Competition, Declining Exports and Adjustments at the Industry and Regional Level in Europe," MPRA Paper 48878, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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