Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

How Sensitive are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ernesto Lopez-Cordova

    ()

  • Alejandro Micco

    ()

  • Danielken Molina

    ()

Abstract

This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. The analysis considers the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United States by a fifth, although since other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent. Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent), but Latin America would see its share of the U.S. market decline by around 2 percent (2.5 percentage points). China's gains would come mainly at the expense of other regions of the world.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.brookings.edu/press/Journals/2008/economiaspring2008.aspx
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION in its journal JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008610

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords: Trade elasticities; trade policy; United States; China; Latin America;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Clark, Ximena & Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro, 2004. "Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 417-450, December.
  2. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Xiaodong Lu & Ronglin Li, 2010. "South-South cooperation: is there a foundation in trade?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 221-234, December.
  2. Majlesi, Kaveh, 2014. "Labor Market Opportunities and Women's Decision Making Power within Households," Working Papers 2014:4, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  3. Roberto Álvarez & Sebastián Claro, 2006. "The china price: evidence and some implications," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 117-140, December.
  4. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2013. "Chinese Export Competition, Declining Exports and Adjustments at the Industry and Regional Level in Europe," MPRA Paper 48878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Álvarez, Roberto & Claro, Sebastián, 2009. "David Versus Goliath: The Impact of Chinese Competition on Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 560-571, March.
  6. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond Robertson, 2008. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 14497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000425:008610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Bernal).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.