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Monetary policy in the North, effects in the South

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago
  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero
  • Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca

Abstract

Portfolio flows across Emerging Markets (EMs) have been particularly volatile over the last years. Financial distress at the beginning of the crisis was followed by monetary policy reactions in developed economies and emerging countries triggering push and pull forces favourable for flow dynamics across Emerging Markets. Subsequent actions and discussion over the exit strategies of central banks in developed economies – particularly the Fed - were behind the various waves of risk-on/-off sentiment in financial markets. We propose a cross over approach (Dinamic Linear Model / Factor Augmented VAR) to disentangle the net effects of global shocks. This paper will focus on the effects of Monetary Policy in the North (more specifically, monetary policy normalization by the FED and the QE by the ECB) on cross border portfolio flows to the South (Emerging Markets) under six alternative plausible scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca, 2014. "Monetary policy in the North, effects in the South," Working Papers 1429, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1429
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    QE; tapering; emerging markets; monetary policy; porfolio flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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