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Estimating VAR models for the term structure of interest rates

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  • Vereda, Luciano
  • Lopes, Hélio
  • Fukuda, Regina

Abstract

In this paper we follow the work of Evans and Marshall and propose new approaches for modelling the joint development of macro variables and the returns of government bond yields of several maturities. The models are estimated and compared with other forecasting schemes previously proposed in the literature, especially those relying on univariate, VAR and error correction methods. The models are then used to judge the hypothesis that the information content of macro variables and the term structure of interest rates as a whole help improving forecasting performance. Our main conclusion is quite simple: if one is interested in computing short-term forecasts, then there is no significant improvement in incorporating information other than the one already present in past observations of the yield at hand; however, if one worries about long-term forecasts (which is frequently the case with pension insurance companies), then the information content of macro variables and the term structure can improve forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Vereda, Luciano & Lopes, Hélio & Fukuda, Regina, 2008. "Estimating VAR models for the term structure of interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 548-559, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:2:p:548-559
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aswani Kumar Mallick & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2019. "Interest rates forecasting and stress testing in India: a PCA-ARIMA approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    3. Harrathi Nizar & Alhoshan Hamed M., 2020. "Validity of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.

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