IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cde/cdewps/239.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Internal Dynamic Of Indian Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Pulapre Balakrishnan

    (Ashoka University, New Delhi & IIM Kozhikode)

  • Mausumi Das

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India)

  • M Parameswaran

    (Centre for Development Studies Thiruvananthapuram, India)

Abstract

A stylised fact of Indian economic history since 1950 is that the rate of growth of the economy has accelerated periodically and across policy regimes. In this paper we present a theoretical framework that can generate such a pattern due to cumulative causation through positive feedback. The growth process is then investigated using cointegration analysis. We are able to establish the existence of positive feedback which is at the centre of cumulative causation. We are also able to date the onset of this mechanism which has driven growth in India for close to half a century by now. This leads us to conclude that the internal dynamics are at least as important as the policy regimes to understand growth over the long term in this country.

Suggested Citation

  • Pulapre Balakrishnan & Mausumi Das & M Parameswaran, 2014. "The Internal Dynamic Of Indian Economic Growth," Working papers 239, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cdedse.org/pdf/work239.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1998. "Is there always too little research in endogenous growth with expanding product variety?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 61-69, January.
    2. Kaushik Basu & Annemie Maertens, 2007. "The pattern and causes of economic growth in India," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 143-167, Summer.
    3. Yohei Yamamoto & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Estimating and testing multiple structural changes in linear models using band spectral regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 400-429, October.
    4. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    7. Boyce, James K, 1986. "Kinked Exponential Models for Growth Rate Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(4), pages 385-391, November.
    8. Madsen, Jakob B. & Saxena, Shishir & Ang, James B., 2010. "The Indian growth miracle and endogenous growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 37-48, September.
    9. Ciccone, Antonio & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-59, April.
    10. Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Richard J, 1994. "A Generalized R[superscript]2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variables Method," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 705-710, May.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, Decembrie.
    12. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    13. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1989. "Income Distribution, Market Size, and Industrialization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 537-564.
    14. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Adsera, Alicia & Ray, Debraj, 1998. "History and Coordination Failure," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 267-276, September.
    16. Jens Matthias Arnold & Beata Javorcik & Molly Lipscomb & Aaditya Mattoo, 2016. "Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 1-39, February.
    17. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    18. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    19. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    20. Kim, Jae-Young, 2003. "Inference On Segmented Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 620-639, August.
    21. Klasing, Mariko J., 2014. "Cultural change, risk-taking behavior and implications for economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 158-169.
    22. Kevin S. Nell, 2013. "An alternative explanation of India's growth transition: a demand-side hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-141.
    23. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Kim, Jae-Young, 2006. "Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 379-394, October.
    24. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2015. "Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 119-144, January.
    25. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    26. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    27. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    29. Kosei Fukuda, 2008. "Detection of switching cointegration rank allowing for switching lag structure: an application to money-demand function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1571-1582.
    30. Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
    31. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1972. "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1237-1255, December.
    32. Faini, Riccardo, 1984. "Increasing Returns, Non-Traded Inputs and Regional Development," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 308-323, June.
    33. Balakrishnan, Pulapre, 2010. "Economic Growth in India: History and Prospect," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198065470, Decembrie.
    34. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    35. Eswaran, Mukesh & Kotwal, Ashok, 2002. "The role of the service sector in the process of industrialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 401-420, August.
    36. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    37. Agarwal, Manmohan & Whalley, John, 2013. "The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 128, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    38. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    39. Elhance, Arun P. & Lakshmanan, T. R., 1988. "Infrastructure-production system dynamics in national and regional systems : An econometric study of the Indian economy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 511-531, November.
    40. Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 623-646, October.
    41. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
    42. George J. Stigler, 1951. "The Division of Labor is Limited by the Extent of the Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59, pages 185-185.
    43. Ashok Kotwal & Bharat Ramaswami & Wilima Wadhwa, 2011. "Economic Liberalization and Indian Economic Growth: What's the Evidence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1152-1199, December.
    44. Ashok Kotwal & Bharat Ramswami, 1998. "Economic reforms of agriculture and rural growth," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 369-402.
    45. Supriyo De, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in India: Trends and Trajectory," Working Papers id:4751, eSocialSciences.
    46. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    47. Kaushik Basu, 2008. "The Enigma of India," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 396-406, June.
    48. Gaurav Nayyar, 2013. "Inside the black box of services: evidence from India," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 143-170.
    49. Manmohan Agarwal & John Whalley, 2013. "The 1991 Reforms, Indian Economic Growth, and Social Progress," NBER Working Papers 19024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. W. Robert Reed, 2013. "A Note on the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Working Papers in Economics 13/32, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    51. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    52. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    53. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aditya Bhattacharjea, 2022. "Industrial policy in India since independence," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 565-598, December.
    2. Suna Sahin, 2021. "The Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected Countries and Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(35), pages 111-128, December.
    3. Pulapre Balakrishnan & Mausumi Das & M. Parameswaran, 2020. "Growth Transitions in India: Myth and Reality," Working Papers 39, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pulapre Balakrishnan & Mausumi Das & M. Parameswaran, 2015. "The Mechanism of Long-Term Growth in India," Working Papers id:6414, eSocialSciences.
    2. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    3. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
    4. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    5. Yasusada Murata, 2009. "On the Number and the Composition of Varieties," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(539), pages 1065-1087, July.
    6. Ciccone, Antonio & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-59, April.
    7. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    8. Ghosh, Taniya & Parab, Prashant Mehul, 2021. "Assessing India’s productivity trends and endogenous growth: New evidence from technology, human capital and foreign direct investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 182-195.
    9. Carraro, Alessandro & Stefani, Gianluca, 2011. "Price Transmission in Three Italian Food Chains: A Structural Break Approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114317, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022. "Tests for segmented cointegration: an application to US governments budgets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 567-600, August.
    11. Skrobotov, Anton, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 117-141.
    12. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, Elsevier.
    13. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    14. Boiscuvier, Éléonore, 2001. "Innovation, intégration et développement régional," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 255-280, juin.
    15. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Peretto, Pietro F., 1999. "Industrial development, technological change, and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 389-417, August.
    17. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    18. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    19. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Coordination failures and government policy: A model with applications to East Asia and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 1-22, February.
    20. Ajit K. Ghose, 2016. "Globalization, Growth and Employment in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 10(2), pages 127-156, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; India; cumulative causation; increasing returns; producer services;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sanjeev Sharma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdudein.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.