IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/igiwpp/2021-004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing India's productivity trends and endogenous growth: New evidence from technology, human capital and foreign direct investment

Author

Listed:
  • Taniya Ghosh

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Prashant Mehul Parab

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

The study evaluates the role of R&D, human capital, and technology spillovers in influencing India's long-run productivity growth. The primary contributions of the article are: (1) analyzing the applicability of various endogenous growth models in the Indian context, while only R&D driven endogenous growth models have been studied so far, (2) highlighting the role of technology spillovers through FDI and import channels in affecting India's productivity at the aggregate level, as opposed to the existing industry level analysis and, (3) the first study to identify the potential non-linear effects of the variables of interest. The main findings are: (a) FDI and human capital influence India's long-term productivity growth, while R&D based models or technology spillovers via the import channel show mixed evidence of support, (b) the decline in FDI has had a more adverse effect on the economy than the positive effect of increased FDI. Therefore, sustained increase in human capital and FDI is recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Taniya Ghosh & Prashant Mehul Parab, 2021. "Assessing India's productivity trends and endogenous growth: New evidence from technology, human capital and foreign direct investment," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2021-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ioannis Bournakis & Dimitris Christopoulos & Sushanta Mallick, 2018. "Knowledge Spillovers And Output Per Worker: An Industry‐Level Analysis For Oecd Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1028-1046, April.
    2. Kaushik Basu & Annemie Maertens, 2007. "The pattern and causes of economic growth in India," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 143-167, Summer.
    3. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    4. Madsen, Jakob B. & Saxena, Shishir & Ang, James B., 2010. "The Indian growth miracle and endogenous growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 37-48, September.
    5. Makiela, Kamil & Ouattara, Bazoumana, 2018. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Exploring the transmission channels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 296-305.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    7. Arizala, Francisco & Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Galindo, Arturo, 2009. "Financial Development and TFP Growth: Cross-Country and Industry-Level Evidence," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1654, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    9. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2011. "Can Second-Generation Endogenous Growth Models Explain the Productivity Trends and Knowledge Production in the Asian Miracle Economies?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1360-1373, November.
    10. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 43-61.
    11. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    12. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    13. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    14. Ghate, Chetan & Wright, Stephen, 2012. "The “V-factor”: Distribution, timing and correlates of the great Indian growth turnaround," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 58-67.
    15. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    16. Botirjan Baltabaev, 2014. "Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity Growth: New Macro-Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 311-334, February.
    17. Chandana Chakraborty & Parantap Basu, 2002. "Foreign direct investment and growth in India: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1061-1073.
    18. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    19. Kevin S. Nell, 2013. "An alternative explanation of India's growth transition: a demand-side hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(1), pages 113-141.
    20. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    21. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    22. Asli Demeirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine (ed.), 0. "Finance and Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 17119.
    23. Wolfgang Keller & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2009. "Multinational Enterprises, International Trade, and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence from the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 821-831, November.
    24. Azizi, SeyedSoroosh, 2018. "The impacts of workers' remittances on human capital and labor supply in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 377-396.
    25. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    26. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Endogenous Product Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1214-1229, September.
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    28. Shishir Saxena, 2011. "Technology and spillovers: evidence from Indian manufacturing microdata," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1271-1287.
    29. Yoon Jung Choi & Jungho Baek, 2017. "Does FDI Really Matter to Economic Growth in India?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-9, June.
    30. Smruti Ranjan Behera & Pami Dua & Bishwanath Goldar, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment And Technology Spillover: Evidence Across Indian Manufacturing Industries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(02), pages 1-23.
    31. Sushanta Mallick & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Foreign Capital in a Growth Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 143-159, February.
    32. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Post-Print hal-02877966, HAL.
    33. Osei, Michael J. & Kim, Jaebeom, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 154-161.
    34. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
    35. Ashok Kotwal & Bharat Ramaswami & Wilima Wadhwa, 2011. "Economic Liberalization and Indian Economic Growth: What's the Evidence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1152-1199, December.
    36. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    37. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    38. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    39. Chun-Li Tsai & Ming-Cheng Hung & Kevin Harriott, 2010. "Human Capital Composition and Economic Growth," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 99(1), pages 41-59, October.
    40. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
    41. Ronald Findlay, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16.
    42. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 279-303, April.
    43. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    44. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    45. Henry, Michael & Kneller, Richard & Milner, Chris, 2009. "Trade, technology transfer and national efficiency in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 237-254, February.
    46. Kevin S. Nell, 2015. "The Complementary Nature Between Technological Progress and Capital Accumulation in India's Long-Run Growth Transitions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 565-605, November.
    47. Isher Judge AHLUWALIA, 2008. "Rapid Economic Growth: Contributing Factors and Challenges Ahead," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(2), pages 180-204, December.
    48. Yao, Shujie & Wei, Kailei, 2007. "Economic growth in the presence of FDI: The perspective of newly industrialising economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 211-234, March.
    49. Ranjan Dash & P. Parida, 2013. "FDI, services trade and economic growth in India: empirical evidence on causal links," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 217-238, August.
    50. Li, Chengchun & Tanna, Sailesh, 2019. "The impact of foreign direct investment on productivity: New evidence for developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 453-466.
    51. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    52. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
    53. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    54. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Endogenous Product Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1214-1229, September.
    55. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    56. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
    57. Dinopoulos, Elias & Thompson, Peter, 1998. "Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 313-335, December.
    58. Nemlioglu, Ilayda & Mallick, Sushanta, 2020. "Does multilateral lending aid capital accumulation? Role of intellectual capital and institutional quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    59. Eapen, Alex & Yeo, Jihye & Sasidharan, Subash, 2019. "Finance constraints and technology spillovers from foreign to domestic firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 50-62.
    60. Dukhabandhu Sahoo & Maathai K. Mathiyazhagan, 2003. "Economic Growth In India: "Does Foreign Direct Investment Inflow Matter?"," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 48(02), pages 151-171.
    61. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying Nie & Qingjie Liu & Rong Liu & Dexiao Ren & Yao Zhong & Feng Yu, 2022. "The Threshold Effect of FDI on CO 2 Emission in Belt and Road Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Fuzhong Chen & Guohai Jiang & Kangyin Dong, 2022. "How do FDI inflows curvilinearly affect carbon emissions? Threshold effects of energy service availability and cleanliness," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 798-824, December.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Zhu, Runqing & Raza, Muhammad Yousaf, 2022. "Fuel substitution and environmental sustainability in India: Perspectives of technical progress," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    4. Prashant Parab, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Callado-Muñoz, Francisco J. & Hromcová, Jana & Utrero-González, Natalia, 2023. "Can buying weapons from your friends make you better off? Evidence from NATO," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2014. "Human capital, technological progress and trade: What explains India's long run growth?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 15-31.
    2. A. Minniti & F. Venturini, 2014. "R&D Policy and Schumpeterian Growth: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers wp945, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Juhro, Solikin M. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Trisnanto, Budi, 2020. "Is there a role for Islamic finance and R&D in endogenous growth models in the case of Indonesia?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    5. Iordanis Petsas, 2010. "Sustained Comparative Advantage and Semi‐Endogenous Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 34-47, February.
    6. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2011. "Can Second-Generation Endogenous Growth Models Explain the Productivity Trends and Knowledge Production in the Asian Miracle Economies?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1360-1373, November.
    7. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    8. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    9. Frederic Tournemaine & Pongsak Luangaram, 2012. "R&D, human capital, fertility, and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 923-953, July.
    10. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    11. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    12. Funk, Peter, 2008. "Entry and growth in a perfectly competitive vintage model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 211-236, January.
    13. Jakob Madsen, 2008. "Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, March.
    14. Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    15. Madsen, Jakob B. & Saxena, Shishir & Ang, James B., 2010. "The Indian growth miracle and endogenous growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 37-48, September.
    16. Arkadiusz Kijek & Tomasz Kijek, 2020. "Nonlinear Effects of Human Capital and R&D on TFP: Evidence from European Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, February.
    17. Kaixing Huang, 2016. "Demographic Transition and the Unobservable Scale Effects of Economic Growth," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2016-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    18. Venturini, Francesco, 2012. "Looking into the black box of Schumpeterian growth theories: An empirical assessment of R&D races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1530-1545.
    19. Gerhard Sorger, 2006. "Quality-improving horizontal innovations," Vienna Economics Papers 0609, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    20. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Population Growth and Human Capital: A Welfarist Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 110-141, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetries; Endogenous growth; R&D; Human capital; FDI; Technology spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamprasad M. Pujar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/igidrin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.