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Hidden Cointegration

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  • Granger, Clive W.J.
  • YOON, GAWON

Abstract

Possibly hitherto unnoticed cointegrating relationships among integrated components of data series are identified. If the components are cointegrated, the data are said to ahve hidden cointegration. The implication of hidden cointegration on modeling data series themselves is discussed throughwhat we call crouching error correction models. We show that hidden cointegration is a simple example of nonlinear cointegration. Economic examples are provided with U.S. short-term and long-term interest rates and output and unemployment, for which no evidence of standard cointegration is found.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt9qn5f61j.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt9qn5f61j

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Keywords: hidden cointegration; crouching error correction models; shocks; interest rates; hysteresis of unemployment;

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Cited by:
  1. Alexakis, Christos & Dasilas, Apostolos & Grose, Chris, 2013. "Asymmetric dynamic relations between stock prices and mutual fund units in Japan. An application of hidden cointegration technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-8.
  2. Karantininis, Kostas & Katrakylidis, Kostas & Persson, Morten, 2011. "Price Transmission in the Swedish Pork Chain: Asymmetric non linear ARDL," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114772, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through, monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 236-251, March.
  4. Abdulnasser, Hatemi-J, 2011. "Hidden panel cointegration," MPRA Paper 31604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Yann Schorderet, 2003. "Asymmetric Cointegration," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2003.01, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  6. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
  7. Afshin Honarvar, 2010. "Modeling of Asymmetry between Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 237-262, October.
  8. Honarvar, Afshin, 2009. "Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States: An application of hidden cointegration technique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-402, May.
  9. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2012. "Is the UAE stock market integrated with the USA stock market? New evidence from asymmetric causality testing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 273-280.
  10. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
  11. Yann Schorderet, 2002. "A Nonlinear Generalization of Cointegration : A Note on Hidden Cointegration," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2002.03, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  12. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
  13. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2011. "Asymmetric generalized impulse responses and variance decompositions with an application," MPRA Paper 31700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
  15. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
  16. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.

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