IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/13111.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sequential identification of technological news shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Seymen, Atılım

Abstract

In an influential recent paper, Beaudry and Portier (2006) propose a sequential approach for identifying technological news shocks. Thereby, the correlation coefficient between news shocks of a short-run identification scheme and technology shocks of a long-run identification scheme in the VAR framework measures the extent to which news incorporated into forward-looking variables could reflect future technological developments. While structural VARs can potentially provide a useful guide for modelers as well as policy-makers, the ability of such models to recuperate structural shocks in general and news shocks in particular from the data is a contentious issue in the literature. In the current paper, I find by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the sequential approach can be quite successful in recuperating technological news shocks from artificial data.

Suggested Citation

  • Seymen, Atılım, 2013. "Sequential identification of technological news shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-111, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88694/1/775220949.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric R. Sims, 2012. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 81-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, June.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    8. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "On the dynamic implications of news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 96-98, February.
    9. Lucke, Bernd & Haertel, Thomas, 2008. "Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-21.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bernd Lucke, 2013. "Testing the technology interpretation of news shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-13, January.
    12. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
    13. Féve, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 919-932.
    14. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    3. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    4. Féve, Patrick & Jidoud, Ahmat, 2012. "Identifying News Shocks from SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 919-932.
    5. Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2019. "Sentiments in SVARs," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 877-896.
    6. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    7. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    8. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck & Seymen, Atılım, 2013. "Comparing two methods for the identification of news shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-110, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    11. Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2017. "Evidence on News Shocks under Information Deficiency," MPRA Paper 80850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.
    13. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    14. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. Massimo Franchi, 2013. "Comment on: Ravenna, F., 2007. Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models. Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 2048-2064," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2013/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    16. Ryan Chahrour & Kyle Jurado, 2018. "News or Noise? The Missing Link," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1702-1736, July.
    17. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.
    18. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2015. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 225-264.
    19. Massimo Franchi & Paolo Paruolo, 2012. "On ABCs (and Ds) of VAR representations of DSGE models," Working Paper series 56_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Aug 2012.
    20. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    News Shocks; Identification; Structural Vector Autoregressive Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.