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Differences in housing price forecastability across US states

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  • Rapach, David E.
  • Strauss, Jack K.

Abstract

Given the marked differences in housing price growth across USregions since the mid-1990s, we investigate forecasts of state-level real housing price growth for 1995-2006. We evaluate forecasts from an autoregressive benchmark model as well as models based on a host of state, regional, and national economic variables. Overall, our results highlight important differences in the forecastability of real housing price growth across USstates, especially between interior and coastal states. More specifically, we find that autoregressive models, and especially models that incorporate information from numerous economic variables, often provide relatively accurate housing price forecasts for a number of interior states during the period 1995-2006; all forecasting models, however, tend to perform relatively poorly for a group of primarily coastal states that experienced especially strong housing price growth during this period, pointing to a "disconnect" between housing prices and economic fundamentals for these states.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 351-372

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:2:p:351-372

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Real housing price growth Autoregressive distributed lag model Combination forecasts Mean square forecast error Coastal/interior USstates;

References

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