Hysteresis and Unemployment: a Preliminary Investigation
AbstractThis paper elucidates hysteresis using a simple model of market entry and exit. A procedure for calculating hysteresis indices for economic time series is outlined. Some preliminary results assess the explanatory power of hysteresis variables in determining the equilibrium rate of unemployment in the UK. We find that natural and "unnatural" variables are involved in a cointegrating vector for UK unemployment over the period 1959-1996. The natural variable is the replacement ratio. The "unnatural" variables are the hysteresis indices for the exchange rate, the real oil price, and the real interest rate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 721.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1988.
"Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right - and some of the answers,"
NBER Working Papers
2698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1988. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right--and Some of the Answers," Working papers 502, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986.
"The Wage Price Spiral,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 543-65, August.
- Alan Manning, 1992.
"Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Keynes, Lucas, and Scientific Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 130-36, May.
- Bean, Charles R, 1994.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
- Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
- Laura Piscitelli & Michael Grinfeld & Harbir Lamba & Rod Cross, 1999. "On entry and exit in response to aggregate shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 569-572.
- Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
- Rod Cross & Michael Grinfeld & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "Hysteresis in Economic Systems," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 723, Society for Computational Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
NBER Working Papers
1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
- Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997.
"How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?,"
in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1987. "Why Is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 103-28, February.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Wyplosz, Charles, 1985. "The Zero Root Problem: A Note on the Dynamic Determination of the Stationary Equilibrium in Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 353-57, April.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
- Solow, Robert M, 1986. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S23-34, Supplemen.
- Cross, Rod, 1993. "On the Foundations of Hysteresis in Economic Systems," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 53-74, April.
- Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308, December.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
- Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-21, May.
- Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Rod Cross & Douglas Strachan, 2001. "Three Pillars of Conventional Wisdom," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 181-200.
- Charles, Sébastien & Lang, Dany & Asensio, Angel, 2010.
"Post-Keynesian modelling: where are we, and where are we going to?,"
30726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Angel Asensio & Dany Lang & Sbastien Charles, 2012. "Post Keynesian modeling: where are we, and where are we going to?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 393-412, April.
- Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," Working Papers 633, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.