Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips

Contents:

Author Info

  • Florence Thibault
  • Yannick L'Horty

Abstract

[fre] Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips par Yannick L'Horty et Florence Thibault . La courbe de Phillips a longtemps été un instrument privilégié pour expliquer le lien entre salaire et chômage. Le niveau du Nairu qui lui est implicite fournit en théorie un guide précieux pour la politique économique permettant d' apprécier l' opportunité respective d'une politique d'offre ou de demande. Cet article rappelle dans un premier temps les fondements donnés à cette relation et ses principaux enjeux. En second lieu, il discute ses insuffisances dans un contexte où le taux de chômage se maintient durablement à un niveau élevé et souligne a contrario les avantages d'une représentation de type courbe de salaire en niveau. À titre d'illustration, une évaluation du Nairu français a été réalisée sur la base d'une boucle prix-salaire standard spécifiée en taux de croissance et sans terme de rappel, c'est-à-dire conformément à la pratique traditionnelle des modélisateurs. Le Nairu ainsi évalué ne présente pas de tendance à la hausse depuis 1970. Combinaison linéaire de variables stationnaires, il est lui-même une variable stationnaire et fluctue autour d'une constante qui correspond par construction au niveau moyen du chômage effectif. On ne dispose donc pas d'une mesure fiable du chômage d'équilibre permettant de satisfaire l'objectif initial de Phillips qui était de fonder l'intervention de politique économique. [eng] The NAIRU in France: The Shortcomings of a Phillips Curve by Yannick L'Horty and Florence Thibault . The Phillips curve has long been the preferred instrument for explaining the link between wages and unemployment. Its implicit NAIRU level theoretically provides a valuable guide for economic policy in that it can be used to assess the respective opportunities of supply policy and demand policy. The article opens with a review of this relation's given bases and its main implications. It then discusses its shortcomings in a situation where the unemployment rate remains sustainably high and goes on to highlight the advantages of a wage curve representation in level. As an example, an evaluation of the French NAIRU is made based on a standard price- wage loop specified in terms of growth rates without an error correction term, i.e. in line with standard modeling practice. The NAIRU thus evaluated shows no upward trend since 1 970. As a linear combination of stationary variables, it is itself a stationary variable and fluctuates around a constant that by definition corresponds to the average level of actual unemployment. Consequently, no reliable measure of equilibrium unemployment can be found to satisfy Phillips' initial aim, which was to justify the intervention of economic policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1997.5838
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838/ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838.pdf?mode=light
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 127 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 83-99

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5838
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Joyce, Michael & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1991. "The Role of the Real Exchange Rate and Capacity Utilisation in Convergence to the Nairu," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 497-507, May.
  2. Nickell, Stephen J, 1990. "Unemployment: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 391-439, June.
  3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  4. Reza Moghadam, 1994. "Why is Unemployment in France so High?," IMF Working Papers 94/58, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  7. Phelps, Edmund S, 1992. "A Review of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1476-90, September.
  8. Pierre Poret, 1990. "The "Puzzle" of Wage Moderation in the 1980s," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
  9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December.
  10. Alan Manning, 1992. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
  12. Rod Cross, 2000. "Hysteresis and Emu," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 367-379, November.
  13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. Alan Manning, 1992. "Productivity Growth, Wage Setting and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  15. Solow, Robert M, 1980. "On Theories of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-11, March.
  16. Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "Hysteresis in History: Was There Ever a Phillips Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 220-25, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  2. François Legendre, 1999. "Qu'a-t-on appris sur le lien salaire/ emploi grâce à l'économétrie ?," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 221-255.
  3. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
  4. Heyer, E. & Le Bihan, H. & Lerais, F., 1999. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Frédéric Reynès, 2010. "The Phillips curve as a more general model than the Wage Setting curve," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-28, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Baghli, M. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & De Bandt, O. & Fraisse, H. & Villetelle, J-P., 2003. "Le modèle de prévision MASCOTTE pour l’économie française : principales propriétés et résultats de variantes," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 118, pages 63-86.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.