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Il NAIRU: la stima e l’effetto della riallocazione settoriale permanente dell’occupazione

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  • Vincenzo Di Maro

    ()
    (Università «Parthenope», Napoli)

Abstract

Questo saggio analizza il NAIRU utilizzando un VAR cointegrato e dati che riferiscono al mercato del lavoro italiano. In questo saggio si mostrerà perché un VAR cointegrato rappresenta un approccio statisticamente adeguato alla stima del NAIRU, cioè un modo efficace di superare i diversi problemi connessi all’approccio strutturale standard. In particolare il saggio si propone di valutare se uno shift permanente nella composizione settoriale dell’occupazione nell’industria italiana (allo scopo di misurare la variazione settoriale della domanda di lavoro è stato usato l’indice di dispersione riferito all’occupazione sviluppato da Neumann e Topel [34]) ha effetti sulla disoccupazione. I risultati di questo saggio indicano che lo shift settoriale permanente dell’occupazione ha un effetto sulla disoccupazione sia nel lungo che nel breve periodo. Un altro risultato interessante è che l’effetto della riallocazione settoriale sul tasso di disoccupazione si manifesta solo con un certo ritardo.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by SIPI Spa in its journal Rivista di Politica Economica.

Volume (Year): 92 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (November-December)
Pages: 69-110

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Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:92:y:2002:i:6:p:69-110

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  1. C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  4. Brunello, Giorgio & Lupi, Claudio & Ordine, Patrizia, 2000. "Regional Disparities and the Italian NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 146-77, January.
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 405-429, December.
  9. Rissman, Ellen R., 1993. "Wage growth and sectoral shifts : Phillips curve redux," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 395-416, June.
  10. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  11. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
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