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Productivity Shocks, Unemployment Persistence, and the Adjustment of Real Wages in OECD Countries

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  • Pascalau, Razvan

Abstract

This paper applies a set of unit root and cointegration tests with non-linear error-correction mechanisms to a subset of the OECD countries to investigate the empirical conclusions of some of the labor market models in the literature. I generally find that the unemployment rate, productivity, and real wages have a unit root even if one controls for threshold effects. This finding justifies the use of a cointegration approach to assess the existence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables of interest. For roughly half of the OECD countries in the sample, the unemployment rate, real wages, and productivity trend together over time. For four countries (i.e, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the US) the adjustment to the long run relationship appears mostly asymmetric. Also, an impulse response function analysis suggests that real wages and productivity adjust faster to the long-run equilibrium, while shocks to unemployment take longer to extinguish. Also, according to the sign of the shocks, the unemployment rates respond differently. These findings suggest that a proper analysis of the behavior of productivity, real wages, and unemployment should consider non-linear adjustment mechanisms to long-run equilibrium since a liner approach would be biased.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7222.

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Date of creation: 11 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7222

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Keywords: Unemployment; Wages; Collective bargaining; Hysteresis;

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  1. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1998. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 69-96, February.
  2. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 1997. "Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 545-65, November.
  3. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Olivier Blanchard, 2005. "European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-18, March.
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  7. Enders, Walter & Falk, Barry, 1998. "Threshold-autoregressive, median-unbiased, and cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 171-186, June.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  10. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  11. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  12. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  13. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Enders, Walter, 2001. "Do Real Wages Respond Asymmetrically to Unemployment Shocks? Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 495-515, October.
  14. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
  15. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  16. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 2000. "Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in the UK and Germany," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(5), pages 487-503, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Haefke, Christian & Sonntag, Marcus & van Rens, Thijs, 2008. "Wage Rigidity and Job Creation," IZA Discussion Papers 3714, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," Papers 1309.1757, arXiv.org.
  3. Elgin, Ceyhun & Kuzubas, Tolga Umut, 2013. "Wage-productivity gap in OECD economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yucel, Emekcan, 2014. "Determinants of the weight for leisure in preferences," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8(9), pages 1-26.

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