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Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

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  • Pesaran, M. Hashem
  • Pick, Andreas
  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period direct forecasting models we propose a new SURE-based estimation method and modified Akaike information criteria for model selection. Empirical analysis of the 170 variables studied by Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2006) shows that information in factors helps improve forecasting performance for most types of economic variables although it can also lead to larger biases. It also shows that SURE estimation and finite-sample modifications to the Akaike information criterion can improve the performance of the direct multi-period forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 164 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 173-187

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:164:y:2011:i:1:p:173-187

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Direct forecasts Iterated forecasts Factor- augmented VARs SURE estimation Akaike information criterion;

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References

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  1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 254-279, April.
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  5. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
  7. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi-Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, 09.
  8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, October.
  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
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  12. Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Finite Sample Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 1, number 9780198774488.
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bao, Yong, 2007. "Finite-Sample Properties Of Forecasts From The Stationary First-Order Autoregressive Model Under A General Error Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 767-773, August.
  15. Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  16. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1989. "Measures of Deterministic Prediction Bias in Nonlinear Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 667-84, August.
  17. Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "VAR forecasting under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 99-136, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Mehmood, Sultan, 2013. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 44546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Araújo, Tanya & Dias, João & Eleutério, Samuel & Louçã, Francisco, 2013. "A measure of multivariate kurtosis for the identification of the dynamics of a N-dimensional market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3708-3714.
  4. Tanya Araujo & João Dias & Samuel Eleutério & Francisco Louçã, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/21, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 468-473.
  6. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  8. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
  9. Tanya Ara\'ujo & Jo\~ao Dias & Samuel Eleut\'erio & Francisco Lou\c{c}\~a, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Papers 1207.1202, arXiv.org.
  10. Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-046, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Adam Elbourne & Coen Teulings, 2011. "The potential of a small model," CPB Discussion Paper 193, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  13. Germán López-Espinosa & Antonio Moreno & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama, 2012. "Short-term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk: A Global CoVaR Approach," Faculty Working Papers 02/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  14. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Andrea Carriero & Todd Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Paper 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  18. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 12/46, International Monetary Fund.

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