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Variable Selection, Estimation and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Andreas Pick
  • Allan Timmermann

Abstract

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period direct forecasting models we propose a new SUREbased estimation method and modified Akaike information criteria for model selection. Empirical analysis of the 170 variables studied by Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2006) shows that information in factors helps improve forecasting performance for most types of economic variables although it can also lead to larger biases. It also shows that finitesample modifications to the Akaike information criterion can modestly improve the performance of the direct multi-period forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 250.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:250

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Keywords: Multi-period forecasts; direct and iterated methods; factor augmented VARs;

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References

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  1. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Bao, Yong, 2007. "Finite-Sample Properties Of Forecasts From The Stationary First-Order Autoregressive Model Under A General Error Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 767-773, August.
  4. Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1989. "Measures of Deterministic Prediction Bias in Nonlinear Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 667-84, August.
  6. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
  7. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  8. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
  9. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts From Autoregressive Models Under Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4401, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
  11. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 254-279, April.
  12. Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Finite Sample Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 1, number 9780198774488.
  13. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  15. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, October.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "VAR forecasting under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 99-136, September.
  18. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Araújo, Tanya & Dias, João & Eleutério, Samuel & Louçã, Francisco, 2013. "A measure of multivariate kurtosis for the identification of the dynamics of a N-dimensional market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3708-3714.
  2. Adam Elbourne & Coen Teulings, 2011. "The potential of a small model," CPB Discussion Paper 193, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Andrea Carriero & Todd Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Paper 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  5. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
  6. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
  7. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-046, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
  9. Tanya Ara\'ujo & Jo\~ao Dias & Samuel Eleut\'erio & Francisco Lou\c{c}\~a, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Papers 1207.1202, arXiv.org.
  10. Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 878, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  13. M Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Mikhail Pranovich, 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks," DNB Working Papers 327, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  14. Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 468-473.
  15. Tanya Araujo & João Dias & Samuel Eleutério & Francisco Louçã, 2012. "How Fama Went Wrong: Measures of Multivariate Kurtosis for the Identification of the Dynamics of a N-Dimensional Market," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/21, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 12/46, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Mehmood, Sultan, 2013. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 44546, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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