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Estimating Infrastructural Investment Needs for India

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  • Chandan, Sharma
  • Bhanumurthy, N R

Abstract

This paper attempts to systemically project the demand and fund requirements of the Indian infrastructure sector up to 2013. In the infrastructure sector transportation (rail, port, air and road), electricity and telecommunication sectors are covered in this study. Our analysis is performed in three stages. In the first stage, long run linkage between infrastructure variables and income are established by applying cointegration method. Subsequently, infrastructure demand functions are estimated by using Dynamic OLS (DOLS) technique. In the second stage, by using the estimated infrastructure elasticity to income of variables and IMF’s projected income data, we project the sector-wise demand and funding requirement. In the final stage, we put forward some suggestions for reforms in infrastructure financing, so the projected demand in the country would be achieved. The results of the analysis indicates that in important sectors like electricity and port, the government(the Planning Commission) has seriously underestimated the future demand, while in air transport sector, the demand seems to be overestimated. Only in telecommunication sector, the projections of this study are at par with their projections. Overall, we find that the government has at least 7% underestimated the infrastructure needs. Based on these results, we propose for initiation of a set of reforms in existing financing pattern of infrastructure in the country

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22188.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22188

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Keywords: Infrastructure projection; DOLS; India;

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Johannes Fedderke & Željko Bogetic, 2005. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," Working Papers 39, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  3. Mitra, Arup & Varoudakis, Aristomene & Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2002. "Productivity and Technical Efficiency in Indian States' Manufacturing: The Role of Infrastructure," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 395-426, January.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Hulten, Charles R. & Schwab, Robert M., 1997. "A fiscal federalism approach to infrastructure policy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 139-159, April.
  6. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Muhammad Akmal & David I. Stern, 2001. "Residential energy demand in Australia: an application of dynamic OLS," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 0104, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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