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Stabilized business cycles with increased output volatility at high frequencies

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  • Kimura, Takeshi
  • Shiotani, Kyosuke

Abstract

In Japan, like many other industrialized countries, output volatility declined dramatically in the 1980s. In order to investigate the cause of this decline, we decompose the variance of output growth by frequency. Our important findings are: (1) The total variance of output growth decreased, which resulted from a reduction in the volatility at business-cycle frequencies; (2) At business-cycle frequencies, the variance of production fell by a larger percentage than did the variance of sales; and (3) In stark contrast, at high frequencies, the variance of production increased, while the variance of sales decreased. These features of production at different frequencies cannot be explained by changes in the sales process and cost-shock process. Instead, improved business practices--such as the adoption of the just-in-time technique--played a direct role in stabilizing the business cycles, while increasing output volatility at high frequencies. J. Japanese Int. Economies 23 (1) (2009) 1-19.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-19

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:23:y:2009:i:1:p:1-19

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

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Keywords: Output volatility Inventories Business cycle;

References

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  1. Wen, Yi, 2002. "Understanding the Inventory Cycle," Working Papers 02-04, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  2. Andrew Eggers & Yannis Ioannides, 2004. "The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of U.S. Output Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0422, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  5. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, August.
  6. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
  7. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2005. "Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 11596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Margaret M. McConnell & Patricia C. Mosser & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1999. "A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Aug).
  9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  10. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Teruyama, Hiroshi, 1988. "Some international evidence on inventory fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 225-230.
  11. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
  12. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1990. "The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 3408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Muto, Ichiro & Kumano, Yusuke & Nakano, Akihiro, 2013. "What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan's output? A structural factor analysis of Japan's industrial production," MPRA Paper 48615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Murase, Koichi, 2013. "Great Moderation in the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 10-24.

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