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The social costs of gun ownership revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (University of Marburg)

  • Florian Neumeier

    (University of Marburg
    Ifo Institute Munich)

  • Christian Westphal

    (University of Marburg)

Abstract

Cook and Ludwig (J Public Econ 90:379–391, 2006) use data on homicide rates and gun prevalence proxies from US counties over the period 1980–1999 and, in their panel data analysis, find a positive and statistically significant association between both variables. We reexamine their analysis and show that their findings are driven by spurious correlations arising from the use of a common denominator (ratio fallacy) to deflate both dependent and independent variables. When we attempt to replicate their results accounting for these issues, we no longer find any evidence that gun ownership is linked to homicides.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier & Christian Westphal, 2019. "The social costs of gun ownership revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1496-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1496-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 155-174, January.
    2. Christine Neill, 2010. "Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Panel Data," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 462-508.
    3. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
    4. Richard A. Kronmal, 1993. "Spurious Correlation and the Fallacy of the Ratio Standard Revisited," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 379-392, May.
    5. Mark Duggan, 2001. "More Guns, More Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1086-1114, October.
    6. Matthew Lang, 2013. "Firearm Background Checks and Suicide," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(12), pages 1085-1099, December.
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saccal, Alessandro, 2022. "A Nash equilibrium against gun control," MPRA Paper 115213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. John J. Donohue, 2022. "The Effect of Permissive Gun Laws on Crime," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 704(1), pages 92-117, November.
    3. Jessica Jumee Kim & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2022. "Proxies for legal firearm prevalence," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 239-273, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gun ownership; Social costs; Ratio fallacy; Spurious correlation; Log ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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