Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach
AbstractThe aim of the paper is to compare the NAIRU hypothesis regarding �European unemployment and a Keynesian approach to the issue and to evaluate them econometrically. For the NAIRU explanation, wage push variables are key in explaining the rise of European unemployment, for a Keynesian approach it is capital accumulation that is key. The theories are tested using time series data for Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the USA, using the seemingly unrelated regression method (SUR). Unemployment benefits, union density and the tax wedge are used as wage push variables, and the growth of business capital stock as the accumulation variable. The NAIRU specification performs poorly, with only the tax wedge having a positive effect on unemployment as predicted and only unemployment benefits having a negative effect on employment growth. However the results are not robust to changes in the specification. The Keynesian approach is more successful, with capital accumulation being statistically significant in all countries and robust to changes in the specification. Moreover, it can be pooled across countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998.
"Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
- Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, . "Capital Shortages and Asymmetries in UK Unemployment," Working Papers 9607, University of East London, Department of Economics.
- Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995.
"Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 1996.
"Disinflation and the NAIRU,"
NBER Working Papers
5520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
NBER Working Papers
1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
- Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
- E. Yndgaard & Palle S. Andersen & Marc Klau, 1999. "Higher profits and lower capital prices: is factor allocation optimal?," BIS Working Papers 65, Bank for International Settlements.
- Hein, Eckhard & Schoder, Christian, 2009.
"Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation – A Post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany,"
18223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
- Hein, Eckhard & Schoder, Christian, 2009. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation: A Post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," IPE Working Papers 04/2009, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012.
"The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Hysteresis," IMK Working Paper 15-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Klär, 2008.
"Capital Accumulation, Labour Market Institutions, and Unemployment in the Medium Run,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
834, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Klär, 2011. "Capital accumulation, labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 437-457.
- Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2004. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former European key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or macroeconomic mismanagement?," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 37280, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
- Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005.
"What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former European key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?,"
- Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
- Ines Perez-Soba Aguilar & Elena Marquez de la Cruz & Ana Rosa Martinez-Canete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "Capital Stock and Unemployment: Searching for the Missing Link," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_475, Levy Economics Institute.
- Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1105, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.