The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building

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The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building

Author Info

Cubadda, Gianluca ()
Hecq, Alain

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a new methodology to build composite coincident and leading indexes. Based on a formal definition which requires that the first difference of the leading index is the best linear predictor of the first difference of the coincident index, we show that the notion of polynomial serial correlation common features can be used to build these composite variables. Concepts and methods are illustrated by an empirical investigation of the US business cycle movements.

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Paper provided by University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS in its series Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers with number esdp03002.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03002

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-06-04 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
- Hecq, A. & Palm, F. C. & Urbain, C. J.-P., 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity and P-T Decomposition in Cointegrated VAR Systems with Common Features," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 450, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 429, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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Toru Konishi & Clive Granger, 1992. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-51, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001. "The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/2001, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Common and uncommon trends and cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 624-635, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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