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The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building

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  • Cubadda, Gianluca

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  • Hecq, Alain

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new methodology to build composite coincident and leading indexes. Based on a formal definition which requires that the first difference of the leading index is the best linear predictor of the first difference of the coincident index, we show that the notion of polynomial serial correlation common features can be used to build these composite variables. Concepts and methods are illustrated by an empirical investigation of the US business cycle movements.

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File URL: http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP03002.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI in its series Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers with number esdp03002.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03002

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Keywords: Coincident and Leading Indexes; Common Cyclical Features; Reduced Rank Regression.;

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  1. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2001. "Self-Generating Variables in a Cointegrated VAR Framework," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6010k0xn, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  2. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 429, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  8. Gianluca Cubadda, 1999. "Common serial correlation and common business cycles: A cautious note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 529-535.
  9. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
  10. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
  11. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
  13. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  14. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Common and uncommon trends and cycles," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10153, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
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