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Self-Generating Variables in a Cointegrated VAR Framework

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Author Info

  • Granger, Clive W.J.
  • YOON, GAWON

Abstract

A variable is defined to be self-generating if it can be forecast efficiently from its own past only. Conditions are derived for certain linear combinations to be self-generating in error correction models. Interestingly, there are only two candidates for self-generation in an error correction model. They are cointegrating relationships and common stochastic trends defined by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The usefulness of self-generation as a multivariate-modelling tool is investigated. A simple testing procedure is also presented. Some interesting economic hypothesis can be easily tested in the self-generation framework. For example, for forward exchange rate to have forecasting power for the future movements in spot rate, the latter should not be self-generating. Given that they are cointegrated, the spot exchange rate should not be a common stochastic trend, which can be easily tested. We also provide additional examples.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt6010k0xn.

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Date of creation: 20 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt6010k0xn

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Related research

Keywords: cointegration; VAR;

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Cited by:
  1. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "The Role of Common Cyclical Features for Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03002, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  2. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  3. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
  4. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 271-292, 04.

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