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Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis

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  • Eugenio Caverzasi
  • Alberto Russo

Abstract

The Great Recession that followed the financial crisis of 2007 is not only the largest economic crisis after the Great Depression of the 1930s, it also signals a crisis of economics as a discipline. This is not only the consequence of the inadequacy of mainstream macroeconomics, and specifically the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) workhorse model, to forecast such a huge event, or at least to detect the worrying tendencies towards it. Even more relevant is the choice to explicitly avoid the modeling of large crises (that for someone is a motivation for not attacking pre-crisis DSGE models focused on the analysis of small deviations from the steady-state), so denying the intrinsic nature of capitalism, a system that necessarily proceeds through cycles and (extended) crises. The replies of the DSGE approach to critics have led to extensions regarding for instance the role of financial frictions, heterogeneous agents, and bounded rationality (though typically in the form of quasi-rational expectations). The alternative paradigm of agent-based (AB) macroeconomics can take into account all these elements at once within an evolutionary modeling framework based on heterogeneity and interaction, so capable to endogenously reproduce complex dynamics, from small fluctuations to large crises, due to innovation and industrial dynamics, rising inequality and financial instability, and so on. The integration between AB macroeconomics and the (post-Keynesian) stock–flow consistent approach represents a promising way for the future development of this research field.

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  • Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:27:y:2018:i:6:p:999-1014.
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    3. Botta, Alberto & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "When complexity meets finance: A contribution to the study of the macroeconomic effects of complex financial systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    4. Silvano Cincotti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio, 2022. "Why do we need agent-based macroeconomics?," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    5. A. Karayev K. & А. Караев К., 2018. "Влияние финансиализации и неравенства распределения доходов на рост экономики, инвестиционные процессы и инновации // The Impact of Financialization and Income Inequality on Economic Growth, Investmen," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 11(6), pages 57-68.
    6. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Forecasting in a complex environment: Machine learning sales expectations in a stock flow consistent agent-based simulation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    6. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.
    7. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.
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    9. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Forecasting in a complex environment: Machine learning sales expectations in a stock flow consistent agent-based simulation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    11. Stefan Ederer & Miriam Rehm, 2018. "Making sense of Piketty’s ‘fundamental laws’ in a Post-Keynesian framework," Working Papers PKWP1808, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
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    17. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2018. "No man is an Island: The impact of heterogeneity and local interactions on macroeconomic dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 82-95.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    20. Alessandro Taberna & Tatiana Filatova & Andrea Roventini & Francesco Lamperti, 2021. "Coping with increasing tides: technological change, agglomeration dynamics and climate hazards in an agent-based evolutionary model," LEM Papers Series 2021/44, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    21. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
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    28. Alberto Russo, 2017. "An Agent Based Macroeconomic Model with Social Classes and Endogenous Crises," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 285-306, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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