IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/e/c/pru10.html

Glenn Rudebusch

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Open Letter to Senator Rand Paul
      by Stephen G. Cecchetti in Huffington Post Business on 2015-09-06 19:54:41
    2. Do central banks need capital?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-05-26 17:19:47
    3. Open Letter to Senator Rand Paul
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-08-23 18:43:47
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Will the economic recovery die of old age?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-12-11 19:02:11
  3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 17:19:00
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What risk models are useful?
      by Ajay Shah in Ajay Shah's blog on 2009-07-22 19:40:00
    2. What Risk Models are Useful?
      by Ajay Shah in Citizen Economists on 2009-07-23 20:00:03
  5. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Blogs review: The Monetary Regime and the drawbacks of NGDP targeting
      by ? in Bruegel blog on 2013-02-08 16:19:36
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Wisdom of crowds - a puzzle
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2008-01-22 20:31:11
    2. Nothing to fear but...
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2015-08-25 17:17:50
    3. The trouble with experts
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-02-13 20:13:28
    4. Big Facts in economics
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-12-18 19:20:45
    5. Non-expiring information
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2019-02-15 13:44:47
    6. The forecasting record
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2019-02-12 13:27:57
    7. On forecasting
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2021-01-13 16:30:53
    8. On economic intuitions
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2021-06-10 13:45:15
    9. Stealing a living
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2022-05-21 09:57:05
    10. All bark but no bite? What does the yield curve tell us about growth?
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2019-06-04 08:00:14
  7. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Wisdom of crowds - a puzzle
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2008-01-22 20:31:11
    2. Nothing to fear but...
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2015-08-25 17:17:50
    3. The trouble with experts
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-02-13 20:13:28
    4. Big Facts in economics
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-12-18 19:20:45
    5. Non-expiring information
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2019-02-15 13:44:47
    6. The forecasting record
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2019-02-12 13:27:57
    7. On forecasting
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2021-01-13 16:30:53
    8. On economic intuitions
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2021-06-10 13:45:15
    9. Stealing a living
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2022-05-21 09:57:05
    10. All bark but no bite? What does the yield curve tell us about growth?
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2019-06-04 08:00:14
  8. Author Profile
    1. A Global Economics Rank of #257 in REPEC's "Recent Publications" Category
      by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2013-10-22 05:29:00
    2. Ranking California Economists as of May 2015
      by Matthew Kahn in Environmental and Urban Economics on 2015-06-04 02:25:00

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt (REStat 2019) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks (AEJ:MA 2012) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve (J Business & Econ Statistics 2009) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Karen Davtyan & Adel R. Kalozdi, 2025. "The Power of Words: Central Bank Green Communication and Performance of Energy Sectors," Working Papers wpdea2515, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    2. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

  2. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Ole Wilms, 2023. "Where Is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 10246, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Chong & Tao, Miaomiao & Qi, Lingli & Roubaud, David, 2025. "Can green CEOs trigger the green premium effect?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    3. Jaccard, Ivan & Kockerols, Thore & Schüler, Yves, 2025. "Green and brown returns in a production economy," Working Paper Series 3030, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.
    5. Badía, Guillermo & Cortez, Maria Céu & Silva, Florinda, 2024. "Do investors benefit from investing in stocks of green bond issuers?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Li, Tinghui & Shu, Xin & Liao, Gaoke, 2024. "Does corporate greenwashing affect investors' decisions?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    7. Li, Renzhong & Fei, Chen & Fei, Weiyin, 2025. "Impact of government’s support policy on decision-making of platform participants under ESG," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    8. Shen, Jie & Zheng, Haitao & Zhu, Lei, 2025. "Quantifying firm-level carbon risk: A novel emission reduction stress factor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Liêu, Minh-Lý & Dao, Thuy & Nguyen, Tam Huy & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Duineveld, Sijmen & Hambel, Christoph & Lessmann, Kai, 2025. "Green investors and the return on capital in general equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    11. Bogdan Ionut Anghel & Radu Lupu, "undated". "Green Energy Consumption and Stock Performance: Evidence from the German Market," BASIQ Conference Proceedings 2024:055, Bucharest University of Economic Studies.
    12. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2025. "Understanding the connectedness between US traditional assets and green cryptocurrencies during crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Huij, Joop & Laurs, Dries & van Zanten, Jan Anton, 2025. "The investment implications of sustainable investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Plante, Michael, 2025. "Investing in the batteries and vehicles of the future: A view through the stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Offner, Eric & Renkel, Marlene & Wilms, Ole, 2024. "Corporate green pledges," IMFS Working Paper Series 214, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    18. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Zanin, Luca, 2023. "A flexible estimation of sectoral portfolio exposure to climate transition risks in the European stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.
    21. Matteo Crosignani & Emilio Osambela & Matthew Pritsker, 2025. "Understanding the Pricing of Carbon Emissions: New Evidence from the Stock Market," Staff Reports 1161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Zhao, Daping & Wang, Yande & Fang, Yong, 2024. "Greenium and public climate concerns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    23. Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2024. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128528, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    25. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    26. Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis, 2024. "A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    28. Covachev, Svetoslav & Martel, Jocelyn & Brito-Ramos, Sofia, 2025. "Are ESG factors truly unique?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    29. Shen, Yiran & Sun, Xiaolei & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Climate events matter in the global natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    30. Beyer, Victor & Bauckloh, Michael Tobias, 2024. "Non-standard errors in carbon premia," CFR Working Papers 24-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    31. Duong, An Thi Thuy, 2025. "Resilience or returns: Assessing green equity index performance across market regimes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    32. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    33. Hambel, Christoph & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2025. "Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    34. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    35. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2024. "ESG investing in good and bad times: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    36. Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
    37. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    38. Benchora, Inessa & Galanti, Sébastien, 2024. "Verified carbon emissions and stock returns in the EU Emissions Trading System," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    39. Boubaker, Sabri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Hasan, Fakhrul & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2024. "Firm carbon risk exposure, stock returns, and dividend payment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 248-276.
    40. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    41. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    42. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    43. Timothy King & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2025. "ESG crypto coins: speculative assets, or, the future of green money?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-816, August.
    44. Minh-Lý Liêu & Thuy Dao & Tam Huy Nguyen & Vu Quang Trinh, 2024. "Climate governance and carbon risk in the global energy sector: Insights into corporate environmental initiatives," Post-Print hal-04834052, HAL.
    45. Dennis, Benjamin N. & İsçan, Talan B., 2026. "A new measure of climate transition risk based on distance to a global emission factor frontier," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    46. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    47. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.
    48. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

  3. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions," Papers 2307.03552, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Álvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions: using score-driven threshold climate models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39546, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2024. "Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    3. Brock, William A. & Miller, J. Isaac, 2024. "Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: A structural econometric approach to estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
    4. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2024. "Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1-27.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).

  4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Donia Besher & Anirban Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data," Papers 2507.12276, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    2. Wanidwaranan, Phasin & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and trading behavior: Evidence from aggregate herd behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Dunbar, Kwamie & Treku, Daniel N., 2025. "Do energy transition investment flows aid climate commitments?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Fischer, Lion & Rapp, Marc Steffen & Zahner, Johannes, 2024. "Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions," IMFS Working Paper Series 198, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Malim Franco, João Pedro & Barasal Morales, Adriano & Poletti Laurini, Márcio, 2026. "When green turns exuberant: Bubble detection in clean-energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Florackis, Chris & Muktadir-Al-Mukit, Dewan & Sainani, Sushil & Zhang, Ziyang (John), 2025. "Stock market reaction to mandatory carbon disclosure announcements: The role of institutional investors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Piero Basaglia & Clara Berestycki & Stefano Carattini & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Tobias Kruse, 2025. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Firms' and Investors' Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 11782, CESifo.
    9. Fields, Micah & Lindequist, David, 2024. "Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Elias Hasler, 2025. "Assessing the Global Impact of EU Carbon Pricing: Economic and Climate Spillovers," Working Papers 2025-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.

  5. Martin C. Hänsel & Michael D. Bauer & Moritz A. Drupp & Gernot Wagner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10113, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Roggenkamp, Hauke, 2025. "A comment on ‘growth and inequality in public good provision’: Testing the robustness and generalizability of dynamic public good games," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

  6. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Maximilian Goebel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume," Papers 2203.04040, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2023. "Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Alexandre Andorra & Maximilian Gobel, 2024. "Unveiling True Talent: The Soccer Factor Model for Skill Evaluation," Papers 2412.05911, arXiv.org.
    3. Brock, William A. & Miller, J. Isaac, 2024. "Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: A structural econometric approach to estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
    4. Luke P. Jackson & Katarina Juselius & Andrew B. Martinez & Felix Pretis, 2025. "Modelling the dependence between recent changes in polar ice sheets: Implications for global sea-level projections," Working Papers 2025-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    5. B. Cooper Boniece & Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance," Papers 2310.04853, arXiv.org.
    6. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

  7. Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach," Papers 2003.14276, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.

    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Pedini, Luca & Valenti, Daniele, 2025. "“It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity!” New Climate Indices for Europe with a Multilevel Factor Model," FEEM Working Papers 376264, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Diego Fresoli & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Dealing with idiosyncratic cross-correlation when constructing confidence regions for PC factors," Papers 2407.06883, arXiv.org.
    5. Ar'anzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela & Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," Papers 2206.03187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    6. Hee Soo (test record) Kim & Christian Matthes & Toan Phan, 2011. "Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper 21-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Brock, William A. & Miller, J. Isaac, 2024. "Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: A structural econometric approach to estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
    8. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe, 2023. "Assessing and comparing fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice: Glide charts for feature-engineered linear regression and machine learning models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Escribano, Alvaro & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz, Esther, 2021. "30 years of cointegration and dynamic factor models forecasting and its future with big data: Editorial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1333-1337.
    11. Marina Friedrich & Luca Margaritella & Stephan Smeekes, 2023. "High-Dimensional Granger Causality for Climatic Attribution," Papers 2302.03996, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    12. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2021. "Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data," Staff Working Papers 21-22, Bank of Canada.
    13. Tarek Zaatar & Ali Cheaitou & Olivier Faury & Patrick Rigot-Muller, 2025. "Arctic sea ice thickness prediction using machine learning: a long short-term memory model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(1), pages 533-568, February.
    14. Atin Aboutorabi & Ga'etan de Rassenfosse, 2024. "Nowcasting R&D Expenditures: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2407.11765, arXiv.org.

  8. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    2. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Emanuel Moench & Robin Schaal, 2025. "The impact of extreme weather events on the term structure of sovereign debt," Working Papers 11088, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Wu, Ran & Li, Ming & Ma, Shenglin & Zeng, Hongjun, 2026. "Asymmetric market connectedness and systemic risk: A novel quantile and time-frequency evidence from brazilian energy firms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    6. Yuan, Xue & Dong, Yu & Liang, Liang & Wei, Yuting, 2025. "The impact of carbon emission trading scheme policy on information asymmetry in the stock market: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    8. Bauer, Adam Michael & Hallegatte, Stephane & McIsaac, Florent, 2024. "The Timing versus Allocation Trade-off in Politically Constrained Climate Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10971, The World Bank.
    9. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Pauline Chikhani & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2025. "An analytical framework to price long‐dated climate‐exposed assets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(4), pages 1093-1146, November.
    11. Ma, Feng & Guo, Yangli & Luo, Qin & Zhong, Juandan, 2025. "Forecasting corporate bond returns amid climate change risk: A dynamic forecast combination approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Peng, Pei & Guo, Yangli & Huang, Dengshi & Wang, Hui, 2025. "Climate change risk and bond risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    13. Meng, Weizhen & Chen, Tuyue & Yang, Jinqiang, 2025. "The economic and policy consequences of carbon emissions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Fangzhi Wang, 2024. "Towards a representative social cost of carbon," Papers 2404.04989, arXiv.org.
    15. Liu, Congcong & Luo, Danglun, 2025. "Feeling the heat: The impact of temperature anomalies on corporate investment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.

  9. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics," Papers 1907.06303, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2021. "A tale of three cities: climate heterogeneity (special issue of SERIES in homage to Juan J. Dolado)," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32200, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Kumar, Naveen & Maiti, Dibyendu, 2025. "Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. María Dolores Gadea Rivas & Jesús Gonzalo, 2022. "A tale of three cities: climate heterogeneity," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 475-511, May.

  10. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections," Papers 1912.10774, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting," Papers 2101.10359, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Marc Gronwald, 2023. "Explosive Temperatures," CESifo Working Paper Series 10680, CESifo.
    4. Yun-Sin Chen & Cheng-Yu Hu & Chun-Yi Li & Jia-Bin Lin & Yi-Che Shih, 2025. "Marine Spatial Planning for Offshore Wind Firms: A Comparison of Global Existing Policies and Data for Energy System Storage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models," Working Papers 22-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2024. "Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    8. Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach," Papers 2003.14276, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    9. Brock, William A. & Miller, J. Isaac, 2024. "Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: A structural econometric approach to estimation and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
    10. Vasco J.Gabriel & Luis F. Martins & Anthoulla Phella, 2021. "Modelling Low-Frequency Covariability of Paleoclimatic Data," Working Papers 2022_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Luke P. Jackson & Katarina Juselius & Andrew B. Martinez & Felix Pretis, 2025. "Modelling the dependence between recent changes in polar ice sheets: Implications for global sea-level projections," Working Papers 2025-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    13. B. Cooper Boniece & Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance," Papers 2310.04853, arXiv.org.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    15. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

  11. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Galo Nuño, 2025. "Three Theories of Natural Rate Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 11878, CESifo.
    2. Bok, Brandyn & Mertens, Thomas M. & Williams, John C., 2025. "Macroeconomic drivers and the pricing of uncertainty, inflation, and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Mirkov, Nikola & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 440, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Marc Peter Radke & Manuel Rupprecht, 2021. "Household Wealth: Low-Yielding and Poorly Structured?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, March.
    5. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    7. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    9. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries," KAE Working Papers 2023-093, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    11. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2024. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    13. Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Thinggaard Hetland, 2024. "Passive Quantitative Easing: Bond Supply Effects through a Halt to Debt Issuance," Working Paper Series 2023-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. He Nie & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 77-98, July.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(28), pages 1-05, October.
    17. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    18. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Galo Nuño & Philipp Renner & Simon Scheidegger, 2025. "Monetary policy with persistent supply shocks," Working Papers 2529e, Banco de España.
    20. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    22. Corneo, Giacomo, 2017. "Ein Staatsfonds, der eine soziale Dividende finanziert," Discussion Papers 2017/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    23. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    24. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation: Expectations and monetary policy in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    26. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Luis Ceballos & Jens H. E. Christensen & Damian Romero, 2023. "Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 2024-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld, 2025. "Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(2), pages 339-392, June.
    31. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    32. Hiroyuki Oi & Shigenori SHIRATSUKA & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2026. "Revisiting Shadow Short-term Interest Rate Models: Evidence from the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2026-007, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    33. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    35. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    36. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    37. Jens H. E. Christensen & Xin Zhang, 2025. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 2024-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    39. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
    40. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    41. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Galo Nuno & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars:Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    42. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    43. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Dan Costin NIȚESCU & Cristian ANGHEL, 2023. "Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Indicators on Lending Rates - A Global Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 64-77, March.
    45. Kábrt, Tomáš & Brůna, Karel, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of foreign capital on income inequality: The case of the Post-China 16 countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 613-626.
    46. Caldeira, João F. & Cordeiro, Werley C., 2026. "Decomposing nominal and real yield curves and inflation forecasting: Evidence from Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    47. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    48. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    49. Jens H. E. Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working Paper Series 2024-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gross, Marco & Neri, Stefano, 2017. "On secular stagnation and low interest rates: demography matters," Working Paper Series 2088, European Central Bank.
    51. Jens H. E. Christensen & Nikola Mirkov & Xin Zhang, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 2023-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    52. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    53. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    54. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    55. Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2019. "Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    2. Duffy, James A. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Wycherley, Sam, 2025. "Cointegration with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
    3. Nitschka, Thomas & Satkurunathan, Shajivan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242358, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Kopits, Elizabeth & Kraynak, Daniel & Parthum, Bryan & Rennels, Lisa & Smith, David & Spink, Elizabeth & Griffiths, Charles & Perla, Joseph & Burns, Nshan & Howerton, Michael, 2025. "Economic Damages from Climate Change to U.S. Populations: Integrating Evidence from Recent Studies," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 368258, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
    7. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2023. "Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 997-1026.
    9. Jia Li & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2334, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    11. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2019. "Trend Inflation Meets Macro-Finance: The Puzzling Behavior of Price Dispersion," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    14. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    17. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2021. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," Working Paper Series 2019-2, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Yan, Yayi, 2025. "Time-varying vector error-correction models: Estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    19. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    20. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    21. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    22. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    23. Rebonato, Riccardo & Nyholm, Ken, 2025. "Why does the Cochrane–Piazzesi model predict treasury returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    24. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    25. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    26. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    27. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 2019," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    29. Rabitsch-Schilcher, Katrin & Marsal, Ales & Kaszab, Lorant, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 350, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    30. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    31. Linlin Niu & Haoran Bai & Zhiwu Hong, 2026. "Geopolitical Risks, Inflation Pressure, and the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve," Working Papers 2025-09-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    32. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    33. Gao, Han & Kulish, Mariano & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    34. Ferrando, Annalisa & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vives, Xavier, 2021. "Product market structure and monetary policy: evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 2632, European Central Bank.
    35. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
    36. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    37. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    39. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    40. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
    41. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    42. Farmer, Leland E & Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2024. "Learning about the Long Run," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0tn1s1hp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    43. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
    44. Francesca Lilla & Gabriele Zinna, 2025. "Survey-based daily estimates of inflation expectations and risk premia in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    45. Cao, Shuo & Crump, Richard K. & ,, 2020. "Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 15122, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    46. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Discussion Papers 32/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    47. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    48. Olaf Posch, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 6925, CESifo.
    49. Asriyan, Vladimir & Laeven, Luc & Martin, Alberto & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Vanasco, Victoria, 2025. "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: lessons from general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 3070, European Central Bank.
    50. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    51. Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev, 2025. "Neutral rate of interest in a small open economy: The case of Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 990-1016, August.
    52. Adam Kucera & Milan Szabo, 2019. "Estimating the neutral Czech government bond yield curve," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    53. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    54. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & McNeil, James, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    55. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    56. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    57. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    58. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    59. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    60. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    61. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
    62. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    63. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    64. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian, 2019. "The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r," CEPR Discussion Papers 14201, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    65. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
    66. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    67. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    68. Joseph P Byrne & Shuo Cao, 2024. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 428-449.
    69. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Galo Nuno & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars:Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    70. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    71. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    72. Jonathan Chiu & Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 6708-6730, November.
    73. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    74. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    75. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    76. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    77. Elizabeth Kopits & Daniel Kraynak & Bryan Parthum & Lisa Rennels & David Smith & Elizabeth Spink & Joseph Perla & Nshan Burns, 2025. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies," Papers 2509.00212, arXiv.org.
    78. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    79. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    80. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    81. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2024. "An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 151-201, July.
    82. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    83. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    84. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    85. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    86. Kaebi, Mohammed Mehdi & Ferreira Batista Martins, Igor, 2025. "Long-Run Interest Rate Differentials and the Profitability of Currency Carry," Working Papers 2025:10, Örebro University, School of Business.
    87. Chia-Hsien Tang & Caijie Zhou, 2025. "Quantitative Easing and Stock Market Feedback Dynamics: Volatility Asymmetry in the S&P 500 and SOX," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(4), pages 21582440251, November.
    88. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.

  13. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," CREATES Research Papers 2017-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2018. "Zero-coupon interest rates: Evaluating three alternative datasets," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Umut Akovali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bond Market Connectedness in the New Normal," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño & Eliseo Navarro, 2022. "Yield curve data choice and potential moral hazard: An empirical exercise on pricing callable bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2124-2145, April.
    5. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "Yield curves from different bond data sets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 191-226, July.
    6. Natraj Raman & Jochen L. Leidner, 2018. "Municipal Bond Pricing: A Data Driven Method," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.

  14. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5187, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Backwell, Alex, 2021. "Unspanned stochastic volatility from an empirical and practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    5. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    8. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2020. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2024. "Oil price shocks and bond risk premia: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Alex Aronovich & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2021. "High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    12. Yuanzhi Wang & Xinbei Wei & Qunzi Zhang, 2025. "Asymmetric Commodity Tails and Index Futures Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 247-265, March.
    13. Edward N. Gamber (CBO), 2017. "Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates?: Working Paper 2017-07," Working Papers 53153, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    15. Moura, Rubens, 2022. "MultiATSM: An R Package for Arbitrage-free Multicountry Affine Term Structure of Interest Rates Models with Unspanned Macroeconomic Risk," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022001, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    16. Siyu Bie & Francis X. Diebold & Jingyu He & Junye Li, 2024. "Machine Learning and the Yield Curve: Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching," Papers 2408.12863, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    17. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    18. Dongho Song, 2016. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 915, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Jul 2016.
    19. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Min Wei, 2019. "Comments on "Determinants of Asia-pacific government bond yields"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing, volume 102, pages 41-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    22. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    23. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    24. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    25. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    26. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "How Macro Transactions Describe the Evolution and Fluctuation of Financial Variables," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, March.
    27. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    28. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    29. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    30. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    31. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    32. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. Zhang, Yugui & Zhu, Jie & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2021. "Global bond risk premia under falling stars," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    34. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    35. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 772, Bank of England.
    36. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    37. Ting-Jung Lee & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2025. "Option-Implied Zero-Coupon Yields: Unifying Bond and Equity Markets," Papers 2512.10823, arXiv.org.
    38. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.

  15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    2. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2024. "Modeling volatility in dynamic term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    6. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.

  16. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Simone Auer, 2018. "Labour market conditions and wage inflation in CEE economies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Chokri Zehri, 2020. "The Domestic Impacts And Spillovers Of Capital Controls," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 31-66, October –.
    4. Joerg Mayer, 2017. "How Could the South Respond to Secular Stagnation in the North?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 314-335, February.
    5. Boldrin, Michele, 2016. "Comment on “A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 26-32.
    6. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Wei, Xiaoyun & Li, Jie & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Optimal targeted reduction in reserve requirement ratio in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2026. "Expected versus unexpected Inflation:The role of Trade Policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Belke Ansgar, 2018. "Secular Stagnation, Unemployment Hysteresis and Monetary Policy in EMU: Scratches but Not Scars?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Craighead, William, 2016. "Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model," MPRA Paper 70777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    13. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Kurt See, 2021. "Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-16, Bank of Canada.
    14. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    15. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    16. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.

  17. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Sarah Mouabbi, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-2, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," CREATES Research Papers 2017-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    8. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    11. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2024. "China's monetary policy framework and global commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    13. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    14. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 52, november.
    15. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    17. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    19. Kang, Kyu Ho, 2015. "The predictive density simulation of the yield curve with a zero lower bound," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-66.
    20. Dang, Van Dan & Huynh, Japan, 2022. "Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    21. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Vijay Kumar & Sanjeev Acharya & Ly T. H. Ho, 2020. "Does Monetary Policy Influence the Profitability of Banks in New Zealand?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, June.
    23. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    24. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    25. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    26. Junttila, Juha & Perttunen, Jukka & Raatikainen, Juhani, 2021. "Keep the faith in banking: New evidence for the effects of negative interest rates based on the case of Finnish cooperative banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    27. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    28. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Dang, Van Dan & Dang, Van Cuong, 2021. "Liquidity injection, bank lending, and security holdings: The asymmetric effects in Vietnam," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    30. Junttila, Juha & Nguyen, Vo Cao Sang, 2022. "Impacts of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability: Evidence from euro area," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    31. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    32. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    33. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    34. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    35. Rui Wang, 2019. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan: Empirical Evidence from Estimated Shadow Rate DSGE Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-29, June.
    36. Leo Krippner & Michael Callaghan, 2016. "Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    37. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    38. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Post-Print hal-03319099, HAL.
    39. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    40. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2021. "Dynamic term structure models for SOFR futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1520-1544, October.
    41. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    42. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    43. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    44. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    45. Benjamin Garcia & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2017. "Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.

  18. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Papers 14-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.

    Cited by:

    1. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2022. "Exiting from an Exchange Rate Floor in a Small Open Economy: Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 51-105, June.
    3. Hall, Robert, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 10741, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Fiscal implications of interest rate normalization in the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 868-904, May.
    5. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    6. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Jane Ihrig & Elizabeth Klee & Canlin Li & Min Wei & Joe Kachovec, 2018. "Expectations about the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 341-391, March.
    8. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2024. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Monnet, Eric & Vari, Miklos, 2020. "A dilemma between liquidity regulation and monetary policy: some history and theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 15001, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    11. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    12. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Marco Del Negro & Christopher A. Sims, 2014. "When does a central bank’s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Staff Reports 701, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Aleksander Berentsen & Alessandro Marchesiani & Christopher Waller, 2014. "Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 523-542, July.
    15. Diego Caballero & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2019. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," BIS Working Papers 766, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    17. Daly, Pierce & Moloney, Kitty, 2017. "Liquidity & Risk Management: Results of a Survey of Large Irish-Domiciled Funds," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 48-62, July.
    18. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series 2016-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. R.J. Galema & S. Lugo, 2017. "When central banks buy corporate bonds:: Target selection and impact of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program," Working Papers 17-16, Utrecht School of Economics.
    21. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. De Genaro, Alan, 2016. "Systematic multi-period stress scenarios with an application to CCP risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-134.
    23. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    24. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    25. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Discussion Paper Series 208, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2020.
    26. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    27. Jörg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies and central bank profits," IMK Studies 62-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    28. Donnery, Sharon & Doran, David & Gleeson, Ruth & Carroll, Konstantina, 2017. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and the Balance Sheets of Eurosystem Central Banks," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 79-94, July.
    29. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2019. "Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/176, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    31. Atsushi Tanaka, 2021. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 249-262, June.
    32. Todd Keister & Antoine Martin & James J. McAndrews, 2015. "Floor systems and the Friedman rule: the fiscal arithmetic of open market operations," Staff Reports 754, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    33. Rhys M. Bidder & Andrew McKenna, 2015. "Robust stress testing," Working Paper Series 2015-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner, 2013. "Generating Historically-Based Stress Scenarios Using Parsimonious Factorization," FHFA Staff Working Papers 13-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency, revised Aug 2014.
    35. Hertrich, Markus, 2020. "Foreign exchange interventions under a one-sided target zone regime and the Swiss franc," Discussion Papers 21/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Piotr Karaś & Krzysztof Kil, 2025. "Interest rate risk of central banks in Central and Eastern European countries and its impact on profitability and credibility in a turbulent socio-economic environment," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 56(3), pages 269-308.
    37. Joerg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies and Central Bank Profits: Seigniorage as Fiscal Revenue in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_916, Levy Economics Institute.
    38. Devine, Kenneth & Dooley, Jennifer & Meehan, Ciaran & Menton, Aisling, 2017. "Consolidated Banking Data: Introducing Enhanced Statistics for Ireland," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 63-78, July.

  19. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Sarah Mouabbi, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-2, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Impact of US Monetary Policy Spillovers and Yield Curve Control Policy," Discussion Paper Series 760, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," CREATES Research Papers 2017-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Grochola, Nicolaus, 2023. "The influence of negative interest rates on life insurance companies," ICIR Working Paper Series 53/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    6. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    7. Renne Jean-Paul, 2017. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 99-116, February.
    8. Roussellet, Guillaume, 2025. "The term structure of macroeconomic risks at the effective lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    9. Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper 80542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    11. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
    12. Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Márquez-de-la-Cruz, Elena & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2022. "Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: The role of interest rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2020. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," Working Paper Series 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    15. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2017. "Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1991, European Central Bank.
    16. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    17. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    18. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    19. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2018. "A Survey-based Shadow Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    21. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    22. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Carlos Molina, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Policy Rates in a Small Open Economy and the Role of Foreign Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 915, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    24. Martin Hodula, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking: Trapped between a Rock and a Hard Place," Working Papers 2019/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    27. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 257-272.
    28. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    29. Francis, Neville R. & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 309-321.
    30. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    31. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    32. Lealand Morin & Ying Shang, 2021. "Federal Reserve policy after the zero lower bound: an indirect inference approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 2105-2124, April.
    33. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2022. "The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(18), pages 1-06, July.
    34. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    35. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    36. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Aigner, Philipp & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2023. "Enhancing gradient capital allocation with orthogonal convexity scenarios," ICIR Working Paper Series 47/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    38. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2017. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," CREATES Research Papers 2017-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    39. Peter Spencer, 2026. "Measuring the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the U.S. Banking and Bond Markets at the Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 533-562, March.
    40. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    41. Hiroyuki Oi & Shigenori SHIRATSUKA & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2026. "Revisiting Shadow Short-term Interest Rate Models: Evidence from the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2026-007, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    42. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    43. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    44. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    45. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    46. Teryoshin, Yevgeniy, 2023. "Historical performance of rule-like monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    47. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    48. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    49. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    50. Qianying Chen & Marco Lombardi & Alex Ross & Feng Zhu, 2017. "Global impact of US and euro area unconventional monetary policies: a comparison," BIS Working Papers 610, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    52. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
    53. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    54. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Masazumi Hattori & Tomohide Mineyama & Jouchi Nakajima, 2021. "Taylor Rule Yield Curve," Working Papers e156, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    56. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kjær, Mads Markvart & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    57. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    58. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    59. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    60. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    61. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2015. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Papers 2015-06, Swiss National Bank.
    62. Leo Krippner & Michael Callaghan, 2016. "Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    63. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 550, Bank of England.
    64. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    65. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    66. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    67. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    69. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. Halberstadt, Arne & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The effect of conventional and unconventional euro area monetary policy on macroeconomic variables," Discussion Papers 49/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    71. Peter Feldhütter, 2016. "Can Affine Models Match the Moments in Bond Yields?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-56, June.
    72. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    73. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Leo Krippner, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers across the Pacific when interest rates are at the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    74. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    75. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    76. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    77. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    78. Chunping Liu & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2025. "Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 983-1006, January.

  20. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Shadow Rates as a Measure of the Monetary Policy Stance: Some International Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9839, CESifo.
    2. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.

  21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    3. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Fernando Eguren-Martin & Andrew Meldrum & Wen Yan, 2020. "No-arbitrage pricing of GDP-linked bonds," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 849, Bank of England.
    5. Akcay, Mustafa & Elyasiani, Elyas, 2021. "The link between the federal funds rate and banking system distress: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    8. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    9. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    10. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    11. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2017. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Staff Reports 819, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Roussellet, Guillaume, 2025. "The term structure of macroeconomic risks at the effective lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    14. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    16. Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper 80542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    18. Dossani, Asad, 2024. "Monetary policy and currency variance risk premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2015. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86247, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro & Jean-Paul Renne & Guillaume Roussellet, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes : an application to term structure modelling," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 52, november.
    21. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2017. "Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1991, European Central Bank.
    22. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    23. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    24. Camilla Lupiani, 2024. "Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24218, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    25. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    26. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    27. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    28. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Carlos Molina, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Policy Rates in a Small Open Economy and the Role of Foreign Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 915, Central Bank of Chile.
    29. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "The Effects Of Asset Purchases And Normalization Of U.S. Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1279-1296, July.
    30. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    31. Yakov Ben‐Haim & Jan Willem Van den End, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty in the natural rate of interest: Info‐gap as guide for monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3228-3245, July.
    32. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Pass-Through of Shocks into Different U.S. Prices," Working Papers 2401, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    33. Evans, Jocelyn D. & Robertson, Mari L., 2018. "The effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign on nonbank mortgage lending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 164-168.
    34. Margaux MacDonald & Michal Ksawery Popiel, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy In A Small Open Economy," Working Paper 1367, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    35. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    36. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    37. Dimitriadis, Timo & Patton, Andrew J. & Schmidt, Patrick W., 2020. "Testing forecast rationality for measures of central tendency," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 12-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    38. Dang, Van Dan & Huynh, Japan, 2022. "Monetary policy and bank performance: The role of business models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    39. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper & Meldrum, Andrew, 2025. "Bond risk premiums at the zero lower bound," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    40. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    41. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 978, Bank of England.
    42. Francis, Neville R. & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "How has empirical monetary policy analysis in the U.S. changed after the financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 309-321.
    43. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    44. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Efficient Jacobian Evaluations for Estimating Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-77, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    46. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    47. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    48. Lealand Morin & Ying Shang, 2021. "Federal Reserve policy after the zero lower bound: an indirect inference approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 2105-2124, April.
    49. Christian Grisse, 2023. "Lower Bound Uncertainty and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 619-634, March.
    50. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "The stabilizing effect of the zero lower bound: A perspective of interest rate target zones," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 61-67.
    51. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    52. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    53. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    54. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O. & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Conventional and unconventional shadow rates and the US state-level stock returns: Evidence from non-stationary heterogeneous panels," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    55. Sheheryar Malik & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 518, Bank of England.
    56. Junttila, Juha & Nguyen, Vo Cao Sang, 2022. "Impacts of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability: Evidence from euro area," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    57. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    58. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    59. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    60. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    61. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    62. Peter Spencer, 2026. "Measuring the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the U.S. Banking and Bond Markets at the Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 533-562, March.
    63. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    64. Bianco, Timothy, 2021. "Monetary policy and credit flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    65. Rita Pimentel & Morten Risstad & Sjur Westgaard, 2022. "Predicting interest rate distributions using PCA & quantile regression," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 291-311, December.
    66. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    68. Jose David GARCIA REVELO & Yannick LUCOTTE & Florian PRADINES-JOBET, 2019. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policies : The Need to Dance the Tango in Harmony," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2691, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    69. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    70. Lu, You-Xun, 2022. "Interactive effects of monetary policy and patent protection: The role of endogenous innovation size," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    71. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    72. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    73. Hamza Bennani & Nicolas Fanta & Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath, 2020. "Does Central Bank Communication Signal Future Monetary Policy in a (post)-Crisis Era? The Case of the ECB," Post-Print hal-02486315, HAL.
    74. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    75. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    76. Phillip An & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Amaze Lusompa, 2025. "How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises," Research Working Paper RWP 25-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    77. Atsuki Hirata & Sohei Kaihatsu & Yoshiyasu Kasai & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jouchi Nakajima, 2024. "Effects and Side Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Shadow Rate Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-21, Bank of Japan.
    78. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 71432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    79. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    80. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Estimating DSGE models with Zero Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-32B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    81. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    82. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    83. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    84. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    85. Petter Eilif de Lange & Morten Risstad & Kristian Semmen & Sjur Westgaard, 2023. "Term Premia in Norwegian Interest Rate Swaps," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    86. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    87. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
    88. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    89. Manuel Gonzalez‐Astudillo, 2018. "Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 115-154, February.
    90. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    91. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 20486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    92. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    93. Rui WANG, 2019. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Measures of Japan in Shadow/ZLB Term Structure Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(6), pages 126-139, November.
    94. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    95. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    96. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    97. Rui Wang, 2019. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan: Empirical Evidence from Estimated Shadow Rate DSGE Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-29, June.
    98. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok, 2023. "Monetary policy inertia and the paradox of flexibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    99. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    100. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    101. Andrea Carriero & Lorenzo Ricci & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2022. "Expectations and term premia in EFSF bond yields," Working Papers 54, European Stability Mechanism.
    102. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2020-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    103. Leo Krippner, 2013. "Faster Solutions for Black Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-66, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    104. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    105. Garcia Revelo, José David & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2020. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: The need to dance the Tango in harmony," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    106. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    107. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    108. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    109. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    110. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    111. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    112. Hahn, Jaehoon & Jang, Woon Wook & Kim, Seongjin, 2017. "Risk aversion, uncertainty, and monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 118-122.
    113. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    114. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    115. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    116. Carlos Alba & Julio A. Carrillo & Raúl Ibarra, 2024. "Information Effects of US Monetary Policy Announcements on Emerging Economies: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2024-14, Banco de México.
    117. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    118. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    119. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A Tractable Framework for Zero-Lower-Bound Gaussian Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    120. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    121. Chunping Liu & Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou, 2025. "Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post‐Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 983-1006, January.
    122. Kentaro Kikuchi, 2024. "A term structure interest rate model with the Brownian bridge lower bound," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 301-328, September.
    123. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    124. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
    125. Jae‐Yun Jun & Victor Lebreton & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2021. "Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 367-386, April.
    126. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Modelling yields at the lower bound through regime shifts," BIS Working Papers 813, Bank for International Settlements.

  22. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    2. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
    3. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Franck Moraux & Olga Pakulyak, 2025. "How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    7. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    9. Park, Alex & Lappas, Petros, 2017. "Evaluating demand charge reduction for commercial-scale solar PV coupled with battery storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 523-532.
    10. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    11. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.

  23. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
    5. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Recent monetary policy effects on Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 12-17, October.
    6. Ellen Ryan & Karl Whelan, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks," Working Papers 201901, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Andrew Bailey & Jonathan Bridges & Richard Harrison & Josh Jones & Aakash Mankodi, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 899, Bank of England.
    8. Roy Havemann & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11024, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Nitschka, Thomas & Satkurunathan, Shajivan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242358, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    12. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Mirkov, Nikola & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 440, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Ansgar Belke, 2017. "Central Bank Communication: Managing Expectations through the Monetary Dialogue," ROME Working Papers 201704, ROME Network.
    14. Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policies in an agent-based model with mark-to-market standards," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 73-107, April.
    15. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    16. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest tate differentials," Ruhr Economic Papers 600, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    18. Kathi Schlepper & Heiko Hofer & Ryan Riordan & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," BIS Working Papers 625, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Stefański, Maciej, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects and transmission channels of quantitative easing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    22. Chernov, Mikhail & Longstaff, Francis & Dunn, Brett R., 2016. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 10947, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    23. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Ellen Ryan & Karl Whelan, 2021. "A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier," Working Papers 202107, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    25. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Working papers 697, Banque de France.
    26. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    27. Philippas, Dionisis & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tomuleasa, Iuliana, 2019. "The role of leverage in quantitative easing decisions: Evidence from the UK," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 308-324.
    28. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
    29. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2016. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 May 2020.
    30. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    31. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "Intraday exchange rate volatility transmissions across QE announcements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 128-134.
    32. Prabheesh, K.P. & Padhan, Rakesh & Bhat, Javed Ahmad, 2024. "Do financial markets react to emerging economies’ asset purchase program? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic period," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    33. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    34. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2021. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    35. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    36. Burns, Andrew & Kida, Mizuho & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy normalization in high-income countries : implications for emerging market capital flows and crisis risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6830, The World Bank.
    37. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    38. Ramaprasad Bhar & Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2015. "The impact of large-scale asset purchases on the S&P 500 index, long-term interest rates and unemployment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 6010-6018, November.
    39. Vasco Curdia, 2025. "Monetary Policy and The Medium-Run Natural Rate," Working Paper Series 2025-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    40. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    41. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    42. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and disaggregated bond excess returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-94.
    43. Stefano Micossi, 2015. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank (2002-2015)," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 35, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    44. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The role of ECB monetary policy and financial stress on Eurozone sovereign yields," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1189-1211, September.
    45. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2014. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and (un)expected bond excess returns," Discussion Papers 35/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    46. Peiris, M.Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2015. "Quantitative Easing in an Open Economy : Prices, Exchange Rates and Risk Premia," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 09, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    47. Óscar Arce & Ricardo Gimeno & Sergio Mayordomo, 2017. "Making room for the needy: the credit-reallocation effects of the ECB’s corporate QE," Working Papers 1743, Banco de España.
    48. Cristiano Cantore & Pascal Meichtry, 2024. "Unwinding Quantitative Easing: State Dependency and Household Heterogeneity," Working papers 955, Banque de France.
    49. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    50. Schrimpf, Paul & Kearns, Jonathan & XIA, Fan Dora, 2020. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," CEPR Discussion Papers 15006, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    51. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    52. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    53. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    54. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    56. Serag Masoud & Murad A. Bein & Wagdi Khalifa, 2022. "Examining the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and exchange rate movements: Empirical evidence from United States quantitative easing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3444-3458, July.
    57. Thomas I. Palley, 2015. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound and After: A Reassessment of Quantitative Easing and Critique of the Federal Reserve's Proposed Exit Strategy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 1-27, February.
    58. Mr. Manmohan Singh & Rohit Goel, 2019. "Pledged Collateral Market's Role in Transmission to Short-Term Market Rates," IMF Working Papers 2019/106, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    60. Yahyaei, Hamid & Singh, Abhay & Smith, Tom, 2025. "Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    61. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    62. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    63. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    64. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Program," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 79-94, February.
    65. Rafael B De Rezende & Annukka Ristiniemi, 2020. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 864, Bank of England.
    66. John Meszaros & Eric Olson, 2020. "The effects of U.S. quantitative easing on South Africa," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 321-331, April.
    67. Dimitris Kenourgios & Despoina Ntaikou, 2021. "ECB’s unconventional monetary policy and bank lending supply and performance in the euro area," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 211-224, April.
    68. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2019. "New Evidence on the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers halshs-02073826, HAL.
    69. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    70. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    71. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Soudant, Joey, 2022. "Monetary policy and portfolio rebalancing: Evidence from European equity mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    72. Mortaza OJAGHLOU & Begum KAYA SOZTANACI, 2022. "Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 46-54.
    73. Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 121-147, February.
    74. Bai, Haoran & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and Taiwan’s government bond yields: Evidence from Nancy Pelosi’s visit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    75. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    76. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    77. Daisuke Ikeda & Shangshang Li & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "Testing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in Japan and the United States," Economics Series Working Papers 961, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    78. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    79. Hsu, Feng-Jui & Chen, Sheng-Hung, 2021. "US quantitative easing and firm’s default risk: The role of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 650-664.
    80. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series 2016-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    81. Micossi, Stefano, 2015. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank (2002-2015)," CEPS Papers 10610, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    82. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    84. Vasco Curdia, 2019. "How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    85. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Post-Print hal-03457846, HAL.
    86. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2013. "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 425, Bank for International Settlements.
    87. Bua, Giovanna & Dunne, Peter G., 2017. "The Portfolio Rebalancing Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    88. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "To the problem of turbulence in quantitative easing transmission channels and transactions network channels at quantitative easing policy implementation by central banks," Papers 1305.5656, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    89. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Ibarra Raúl, 2023. "Effects of the Extraordinary Measures Implemented by Banco de México during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Conditions," Working Papers 2023-03, Banco de México.
    90. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    91. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?," Staff Working Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    92. Hubert, Paul & Blot, Christophe & Bozou, Caroline & Creel, Jérôme, 2024. "Same actions, different effects: The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    93. Yutaka KURIHARA, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Stock/Foreign Exchange Market Liquidity: The Japanese Case," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, March.
    94. Kevin Pallara & Luca Rossi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2026. "Macroeconomic shocks and the term premium in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1520, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    95. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 978, Bank of England.
    96. Jorge Alberto Fornero & Roque Esteban Montero & Andrés J. Yany, 2017. "Reassessing the Effects of Foreign Monetary Policy on Output: New Evidence from Structural and Agnostic Identification Procedures," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 31-72, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    97. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    98. Franziska Bremus & Franziska Schütze & Aleksandar Zaklan, 2021. "The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases on European Green Bonds," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1938, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    99. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    100. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    101. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Government Bond Yields At The Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 102-120, January.
    102. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    103. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    104. D’Amico, Stefania & Klausmann, Johannes & Pancost, N. Aaron, 2026. "The benchmark greenium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    105. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    106. Iryna Kaminska & Alex Kontoghiorghes & Walker Ray, 2025. "QT versus QE: who is in when the central bank is out?," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1108, Bank of England.
    107. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2017. "The impact of quantitative easing on aggregate mutual fund flows in the UK," Working Papers 20171704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    108. Chen, Hsuan-Chi & Yeh, Chia-Wei, 2021. "Global financial crisis and COVID-19: Industrial reactions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    109. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)," Working Paper Series 2075, European Central Bank.
    110. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Eurozone bond market dynamics, ECB monetary policy and financial stress," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03458554, HAL.
    111. Djuric, Uros & Neugart, Michael, 2017. "Helicopter money: survey evidence on expectation formation and consumption behavior," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168062, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    112. Smith, Ariel, 2020. "The United Kingdom's Asset Purchase Program (U.K. GFC)," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 2(3), pages 437-458, April.
    113. Anna Cieslak & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," BIS Working Papers 761, Bank for International Settlements.
    114. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    115. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    116. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    117. Shah, Imran Hussain & Schmidt-Fischer, Francesca & Malki, Issam & Hatfield, Richard, 2019. "A structural break approach to analysing the impact of the QE portfolio balance channel on the US stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 204-220.
    118. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    119. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek & Vivian Z. Yue, 2016. "The response of sovereign bond yields to U.S. monetary policy," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 102-106, August.
    120. Tiago Araújo & Óscar Afonso & Pedro Cunha Neves & Elena Sochirca, 2025. "International spillovers of unconventional monetary policy: A meta-analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(2), pages 205-224, May.
    121. Liu, Chunzi & Chen, Xiaoli, 2024. "Spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed statements on China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 712-741.
    122. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    123. Vácha, Lukáš & Šmolík, Filip & Baxa, Jaromír, 2019. "Comovement and disintegration of EU sovereign bond markets during the crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-556.
    124. Schrimpf, Paul & Kearns, Jonathan & Ferrari, Massimo, 2017. "Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11918, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    125. Berndt, Antje & Yeltekin, Şevin, 2015. "Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-136.
    126. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    127. Lloyd, Simon & Ostry, Daniel, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of quantitative tightening and easing on financial markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    128. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    129. Belke, Angar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 335-349.
    130. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    131. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    132. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    133. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    134. Barry Eichengreen, 2020. "Keynesian economics: can it return if it never died?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 23-35, January.
    135. Bluford H. Putnam, 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7, January.
    136. Tarek Chebbi & Waleed Hmedat, 2024. "Inventory information arrival and the crude oil futures market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1513-1533, April.
    137. Jakl Jakub, 2019. "The True Nature of the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Policy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(2), pages 95-117, June.
    138. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    139. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    140. Eva Zamrazilová, 2014. "Měnová politika: krátkodobá stabilizace versus dlouhodobá rizika [Monetary Policy: Short-Term Stabilization versus Long-Term Risks]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 3-31.
    141. Atsuki Hirata & Sohei Kaihatsu & Yoshiyasu Kasai & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jouchi Nakajima, 2024. "Effects and Side Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Shadow Rate Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-21, Bank of Japan.
    142. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    143. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    144. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    145. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    146. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    147. Moumita Paul & Kalluru Siva Reddy, 2022. "US QE and the Indian Bond Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 137-157, March.
    148. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    149. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    150. Kanupriya Madan & Amlendu Dubey, 2025. "Tracing the Literature on Central Bank Communication: A Bibliometric Review," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 28(4), pages 553-594, December.
    151. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Ifedola Olanipekun & Oktay Özkan, 2024. "Stock Market Response to Quantitative Easing: Evidence from the Novel Rolling Windows Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 947-977, August.
    152. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    153. Ceballos, Luis & Romero, Damian, 2022. "International portfolio bond spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    154. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    155. Putnam, Bluford H., 2013. "Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-7.
    156. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    157. Michiel De Pooter & Robert F. Martin & Seth Pruitt, 2015. "The Liquidity Effects of Official Bond Market Intervention," International Finance Discussion Papers 1138, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    158. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    159. Ben Charoenwong & Randall Morck & Yupana Wiwattanakantang, 2019. "Bank of Japan Equity Purchases: The (Non-)Effects of Extreme Quantitative Easing," NBER Working Papers 25525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    160. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    161. Laséen, Stefan, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases: Insights from quantitative easing auctions of government bonds," Working Paper Series 419, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    162. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Overnight Indexed Swap Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1733, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    163. Doran, David & Dunne, Peter & Monks, Allen & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2013. "Was the Securities Markets Programme Effective in Stabilizing Irish Sovereign Yields?," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    164. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.
    165. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    166. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Quantitative Easing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Country Study," KAE Working Papers 2023-088, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    167. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    168. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    169. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    170. Cong Gu & Benfu Lv & Ying Liu & Geng Peng, 2021. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Cryptocurrency," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 27-34.
    171. Stelios Bekiros & Amanda Dahlström & Gazi Salah Uddin & Oskar Ege & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2020. "A tale of two shocks: The dynamics of international real estate markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 3-27, January.
    172. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    173. Nyholm, Ken, 2016. "US-euro area term structure spillovers, implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 1980, European Central Bank.
    174. Zhaogang Song & Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    175. King, Thomas B., 2019. "Expectation and duration at the effective lower bound," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 736-760.
    176. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    177. Taoufik Bouraoui, 2015. "The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1562-1573, March.
    178. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    179. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    180. Philippe Andrade & Christophe Cahn & Henri Fraisse & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2015. "Can the Provision of Long-Term Liquidity Help to Avoid a Credit Crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs," Working papers 540, Banque de France.
    181. Thomas Mcinish & Christopher J. Neely & Jade Planchon, 2024. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Shorts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 805-835, June.
    182. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.
    183. Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    184. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 550, Bank of England.
    185. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    186. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    187. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    188. David M. Arseneau & David E. Rappoport & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2017. "Private and Public Liquidity Provision in Over-the-Counter Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    189. Meegan, Andrew & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2018. "Financial market spillovers during the quantitative easing programmes of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 128-148.
    190. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    191. Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2016. "The Portfolio Balance Mechanism and QE in the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(S1), pages 84-105, September.
    192. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Testing for Multi-Asset Systemic Tail Risk," Working Papers 2023-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 May 2026.
    193. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    194. Schaffer, Matthew & Segev, Nimrod, 2025. "Quantitative easing, bank lending, and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    195. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2018. "Central bank-driven mispricing," SAFE Working Paper Series 226, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    196. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63.
    197. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    198. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    199. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    200. Chadha, J. S. & Macchiarelli, C. & Goel, S. & Hantzsche, A. & Mellina, S., 2026. "Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Geopolitical Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2606, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    201. Simon Shui-Ming Wan, 2017. "Credit policy, real exchange rate volatility and moral hazard," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 553-578, October.
    202. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    203. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    204. Walker Ray, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Limits to Arbitrage: Insights from a New Keynesian Preferred Habitat Model," 2019 Meeting Papers 692, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    205. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    206. Andreas Kettemann & Signe Krogstrup, 2013. "Portfolio balance effects of the SNB's bond purchase program," Working Papers 2013-01, Swiss National Bank.
    207. LUPU, Radu & CALIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "Co-Movements Of Regime Shifts In Gbp Currency Pairs Around Boe Quantitative Easing Announcements," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 89-101.
    208. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    209. Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
    210. Michiel De Pooter & Robert F. Martin & Seth Pruitt & Rebecca DeSimone, 2015. "Cheap Talk and the Efficacy of the ECB’s Securities Market Programme: Did Bond Purchases Matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    211. Benjamin Chabot & Gabe Herman, 2013. "A History of Large-Scale Asset Purchases before the Federal Reserve," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 140-152.
    212. Jakub Jakl, 2020. "Outreach and Effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(3), pages 291-314.
    213. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    214. Matthew Schaffer & Nimrod Segev, 2023. "Quantitative Easing, Bank Lending, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2023.01, Bank of Israel.
    215. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    216. David Knezevic & Martin Nordström & Pär Österholm, 2021. "The relation between municipal and government bond yields in an era of unconventional monetary policy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
    217. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    218. Wang, Ling, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions under asset purchase programs: Some comparative evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 208-221.
    219. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2025. "Forecasting with shadow rate VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 795-822, July.
    220. Tao Wu, 2024. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long‐Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(8), pages 2061-2104, December.
    221. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2020. "Modelling the dynamics of unconventional monetary policies’ impact on professionals’ forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    222. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    223. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    224. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," CARF F-Series CARF-F-283, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    225. Wang, Yi-Chen & Wang, Ching-Wen & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2015. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the tail risks of stock markets between U.S. and Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 41-51.
    226. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "On quantitative easing and high frequency exchange rate dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-125.
    227. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    228. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2013. "Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?," Working Paper Series 2013-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    229. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Νikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy effects on output and inflation: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 295-305.
    230. Timothy Sharpe & Martin Watts, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the UK: A Modern Money Critique," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 41-64, September.
    231. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia," International Finance Discussion Papers 1172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    232. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    233. Lloyd, Simon P., 2021. "Overnight indexed swap-implied interest rate expectations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    234. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    235. Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  24. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Santiago García-Verdú & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2016. "On the costs of deflation: a consumption-based approach," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 247-273, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Is deflation trap a serious threat? Case study of FED, ECB and NBP," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14(2), pages 243-259, June.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    5. Philippe Andrade & Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    6. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2020. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," Working Paper Series 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Pricing Deflation Risk with US Treasury Yields," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1107-1152.
    8. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    10. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
    11. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    13. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2014. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Discussion Papers 24/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2017. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," CREATES Research Papers 2017-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    16. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    17. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    18. Kazuhiro Hiraki & Wataru Hirata, 2020. "Market-based Long-term Inflation Expectations in Japan: A Refinement on Breakeven Inflation Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    19. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    20. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    21. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    22. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    23. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "TIPS liquidity, breakeven inflation, and inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue june20.

  25. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zheng & Wang, Wenxue & Song, Ciji, 2024. "Quantitative easing and bank risk-taking: Evidence from the federal reserve's large-scale asset purchases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    3. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. William B. English & J. David López-Salido & Robert J. Tetlow, 2013. "The Federal Reserve's framework for monetary policy - recent changes and new questions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2018. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
    7. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "Global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 200-216.
    8. Ethan Struby & Michael F. Connolly, 2022. "Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-03, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    9. Ellen Ryan & Karl Whelan, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Hot Potato Effect: Evidence from Euro Area Banks," Working Papers 201901, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    10. Andrew Bailey & Jonathan Bridges & Richard Harrison & Josh Jones & Aakash Mankodi, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 899, Bank of England.
    11. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Mirkov, Nikola & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 440, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Jeff W. Huther & Jason S. Seligman, 2013. "Yield curve impacts of forward guidance and maturity extension programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t," Working Papers 2012-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Eric T. Swanson, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lu, Yundi & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2024. "A tale of two tightenings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    18. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech the 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New ," Speech 1038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Kathi Schlepper & Heiko Hofer & Ryan Riordan & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," BIS Working Papers 625, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    21. Stefański, Maciej, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects and transmission channels of quantitative easing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Ivan Hajdukovic, 2022. "Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies," Post-Print hal-03912666, HAL.
    23. Adam S. Posen, 2012. "Commentary: methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 289-302.
    24. Utku Altunöz, 2025. "Deciphering the Role of Expectations in the Process of Inflation Formation in the USA," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(2), pages 21582440251, May.
    25. Nick Butt & Rohan Churm & Michael McMahon & Arpad Morotz & Jochen Schanz, 2015. "QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1523, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    26. Kaoru Hosono & Shogo Isobe, 2014. "The Financial Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies in the U.S., the U.K., the Eurozone, and Japan," Discussion papers ron259, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    27. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Working papers 697, Banque de France.
    28. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 2021-03, CRESE.
    29. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2023. "New Trends In The European Central Bank Monetary Policy," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 17(1), pages 39-60.
    30. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2020. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-482, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    31. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    32. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2016. "Rules versus Human Beings, and the Mandate of the ECB," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 68-87.
    33. Elías Albagli & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Diego Saravia, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 9, pages 285-307, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2013. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1304, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    35. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    36. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2021. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    37. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    38. Nikoletta Poutachidou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The Effect of Quantitative Easing through Google Metrics on US Stock Indices," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, October.
    39. Prabheesh, K.P. & Padhan, Rakesh & Bhat, Javed Ahmad, 2024. "Do financial markets react to emerging economies’ asset purchase program? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic period," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    40. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    41. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 3-39, March.
    42. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    43. Burns, Andrew & Kida, Mizuho & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy normalization in high-income countries : implications for emerging market capital flows and crisis risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6830, The World Bank.
    44. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    45. Ramaprasad Bhar & Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2015. "The impact of large-scale asset purchases on the S&P 500 index, long-term interest rates and unemployment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(55), pages 6010-6018, November.
    46. Altavilla, Carlo & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2024. "Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    47. Eric T. Swanson, 2016. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on asset prices," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 78-100, August.
    48. Wieladek, Tomasz & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope," CEPR Discussion Papers 11309, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    49. Bats, Joost & Hoondert, Jurian J.A., 2022. "The relationship between central bank auctions and bill market liquidity," Working Paper Series 2708, European Central Bank.
    50. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    52. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    53. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
    54. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    55. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2015. "Exchange rates and monetary policy," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    56. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    57. Wang, Ling, 2022. "The dynamics of money supply determination under asset purchase programs: A market-based versus a bank-based financial system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    58. Kozo Ueda & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Ippei Fujiwara, 2014. "Policy Regime Change against Chronic Deflation? Policy option under long-term liquidity trap," AJRC Working Papers 1402, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    59. Uluc Aysun, 2016. "The credit channel is alive at the zero lower bound but how does it operate? Firm level evidence on the asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 2016-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    60. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    61. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    62. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    63. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    64. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    65. Signe Krogstrup & Samuel Reynard & Barbara Sutter, 2012. "Liquidity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-02, Swiss National Bank.
    66. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    67. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.
    68. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    69. Xenaneira Shodrokova & Bernadette Robiani & Anna Yulianita, 2025. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Macroeconomics on Long-term Government Bond Yields Interest Rate in Emerging Markets: ARDL Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 113-132.
    70. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion - nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 43-107.
    71. Richhild Moessner & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The zero lower bound, forward guidance and how markets respond to news," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    72. Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2022. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-31, December.
    73. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    74. Caccavaio, Marianna & Carpinelli, Luisa & Marinelli, Giuseppe & Schmidt, Julia, 2018. "International spillovers of monetary policy: evidence from France and Italy," Working Paper Series 2216, European Central Bank.
    75. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    76. Adriana Lojschova, 2017. "Did quantitative easing boost bank lending? The Slovak experience," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    77. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    78. Andrew Lee Smith, 2014. "House prices, heterogeneous banks and unconventional monetary policy options," Research Working Paper RWP 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    79. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    80. Wang, Ling, 2019. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on MBS spreads: A comparative study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 235-251.
    81. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Program," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 79-94, February.
    82. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    83. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 946-965, December.
    84. Banegas, Ayelen & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Siga, Lucas, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on mutual fund investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    85. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    86. J. Boeckx & N. Cordemans & M. Dossche, 2013. "Causes and implications of the low level of the risk-free interest rate," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 63-88, September.
    87. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    88. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    89. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Soudant, Joey, 2022. "Monetary policy and portfolio rebalancing: Evidence from European equity mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    90. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    91. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    92. Simon Gilchrist & David López-Salido & Egon Zakrajšek, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-109, January.
    93. Pudner, Damian, 2025. "Rethinking Monetary Policy: The case for adopting NGDP targeting in Britain," IEA Discussion Papers 136, Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
    94. Aeimit Lakdawala & Michael Bauer & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 1403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    95. Andreas Kettemann & Signe Krogstrup, 2013. "Portfolio balance effects of the SNB's bond purchase program," ECON - Working Papers 116, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    96. Thealexa Becker & Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 57-78.
    97. Itay Goldstein & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2018. "Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing," Staff Working Papers 18-33, Bank of Canada.
    98. Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2014. "How the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) Influence Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yields and U.S. Mortgage Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Bauer, Michael D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2022. "A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification," IMFS Working Paper Series 165, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    100. Naoko Hara & Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "The Effects Of Asset Purchases And Normalization Of U.S. Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1279-1296, July.
    101. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    102. Mäki-Fränti, Petri & Silvo, Aino & Gulan, Adam & Kilponen, Juha, 2022. "Monetary policy and inequality: The Finnish case," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2022, Bank of Finland.
    103. W. Scott Frame & Eva Steiner, 2022. "Quantitative easing and agency MBS investment and financing choices by mortgage REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 931-965, December.
    104. Julián Caballero & Blaise Gadanecz, 2023. "Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work?," BIS Working Papers 1080, Bank for International Settlements.
    105. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2016. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series 2016-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    106. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    107. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    108. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    109. Andrea Nocera & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Causal effects of the Fed's large-scale asset purchases on firms' capital structure," Papers 2310.18638, arXiv.org.
    110. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2013. "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 425, Bank for International Settlements.
    111. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    112. Jean-Paul Renne, 2012. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Working papers 395, Banque de France.
    113. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    114. Alba Carlos & Cuadra Gabriel & Ibarra Raúl, 2023. "Effects of the Extraordinary Measures Implemented by Banco de México during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Conditions," Working Papers 2023-03, Banco de México.
    115. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    116. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?," Staff Working Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    117. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    118. Hubert, Paul & Blot, Christophe & Bozou, Caroline & Creel, Jérôme, 2024. "Same actions, different effects: The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    119. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    120. Christopher Hanes, 2019. "Quantitative Easing in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1169-1207, August.
    121. Steeley, James M., 2015. "The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 303-336.
    122. Marc Giannoni & Christina Patterson & Marco Del Negro, 2015. "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," 2015 Meeting Papers 1529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    123. Koetter, Michael, 2020. "Lending effects of the ECB’s asset purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 39-52.
    124. Andrejs Zlobins, 2023. "Is There a Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of QE in Latvia?," Working Papers 2023/05, Latvijas Banka.
    125. Martijn Boermans & Tomás Carrera de Souza & Robert Vermeulen, 2025. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," Working Papers 826, DNB.
    126. Richard Harrison, 2017. "Optimal quantitative easing," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 678, Bank of England.
    127. Stephanos Papadamou & Νikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2020. "US non-linear causal effects on global equity indices in Normal times versus unconventional eras," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 381-407, May.
    128. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    129. Juhro, Solikin M. & Anglingkusumo, Reza, 2021. "The Impact of Post-GFC Monetary Policy in the US on Capital Flows to the SEACEN Economies," MPRA Paper 115721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    131. Lüdering, Jochen & Tillmann, Peter, 2020. "Monetary policy on twitter and asset prices: Evidence from computational text analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    132. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    133. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    134. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2018. "Quantitative easing auctions of Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 103-124.
    135. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2106, European Central Bank.
    136. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    137. Thornton, Daniel L., 2017. "Effectiveness of QE: An assessment of event-study evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 56-74.
    138. Tsai, I-Chun, 2020. "Alternative explanation of the money illusion: The effect of unexpected low inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 110-123.
    139. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    140. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    141. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    142. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.
    143. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    144. Canetg, Fabio & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2022. "Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    145. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)," Working Paper Series 2075, European Central Bank.
    146. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame, 2020. "Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs," Working Papers 202020, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    147. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\" Conference hosted by the Opportunity and Inclus," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    148. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    149. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.
    150. Duca, John V. & Murphy, Anthony, 2013. "Would a Bagehot style corporate bond backstop have helped counter the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 351-353.
    151. Paludkiewicz, Karol, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy, bank lending, and security holdings: The yield-induced portfolio rebalancing channel," Discussion Papers 22/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    152. Vasco Curdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2013. "How stimulatory are large-scale asset purchases?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug12.
    153. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    154. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    155. Eric M. Engen & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    156. Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
    157. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius Rodriguez, 2023. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 111-158, March.
    158. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    159. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek & Vivian Z. Yue, 2016. "The response of sovereign bond yields to U.S. monetary policy," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 102-106, August.
    160. Tiago Araújo & Óscar Afonso & Pedro Cunha Neves & Elena Sochirca, 2025. "International spillovers of unconventional monetary policy: A meta-analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(2), pages 205-224, May.
    161. Liu, Chunzi & Chen, Xiaoli, 2024. "Spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed statements on China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 712-741.
    162. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2017. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 165-186.
    163. Schrimpf, Paul & Kearns, Jonathan & Ferrari, Massimo, 2017. "Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11918, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    164. Thomas B. King, 2016. "Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    165. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    166. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael W. Mccracken & Michael T. Owyang, 2025. "Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 5-30, February.
    167. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    168. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    169. Kapoor, Supriya & Peia, Oana, 2021. "The impact of quantitative easing on liquidity creation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    170. Floro, Danvee & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Can forward guidance be ambiguous yet effective?," Kiel Policy Briefs 65, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    171. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    172. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    173. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    174. David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2022. "The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under," Staff Reports 1013, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    175. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    176. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2016. "Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through," Working Paper Series 1978, European Central Bank.
    177. Smith, A. Lee & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2023. "The financial market effects of unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    178. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    179. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    180. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    181. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    182. Chang, Jui-Chuan Della & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2018. "The asymmetric effects of U.S. large-scale asset purchases on the volatility of the Canadian dollar futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 15-28.
    183. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    184. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at “A Hot Economy: Sustainability and Trade-Offs,” a Fed Listens event sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, ," Speech 1085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    185. Frederick S. Mishkin, 2013. "Central Banking after the Crisis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 714, Central Bank of Chile.
    186. Jakl Jakub, 2019. "The True Nature of the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing Policy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(2), pages 95-117, June.
    187. Nikola Mirkov, 2014. "International financial transmission of the Fed's monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 7-49, September.
    188. W. Scott Frame & Eva Steiner, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Agency Mortgage REITs," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    189. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    190. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "The ECB’s asset purchase programme: A model-based evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-140.
    191. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    192. Stefan Behrendt, 2013. "Monetary Transmission via the Central Bank Balance Sheet," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 49-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    193. Cole, Stephen J. & Huh, Sungjun, 2024. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools under adaptive learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    194. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    195. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional PaThéof Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    196. Moumita Paul & Kalluru Siva Reddy, 2022. "US QE and the Indian Bond Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 137-157, March.
    197. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1995, European Central Bank.
    198. Pinzon-Puerto, Freddy & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2025. "Foreign exchange intervention: A comparative analysis of announcements versus trades," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    199. Abidi, Nordine & Falagiarda, Matteo & Miquel-Flores, Ixart, 2023. "Quantitative easing and credit rating agencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    200. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    201. Edison Yu, 2016. "Did quantitative easing work?," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(1), pages 5-13, January.
    202. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "International spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of major central banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    203. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    204. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and Monetary Union],\" Helsinki, Finland, July 1, ," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    205. Michael Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing," NBER Working Papers 22581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    206. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    207. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    208. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    209. Benoit Mojon & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Dora Xia, 2025. "Integrating balance sheet policy into monetary policy conditions," BIS Working Papers 1281, Bank for International Settlements.
    210. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    211. Anna Duszak, 2018. "Does the Way of Financing Quantitative Easing Programmes Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(2), pages 101-131, June.
    212. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "Industry effects of unconventional monetary policy, within and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    213. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    214. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Quantitative Easing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Country Study," KAE Working Papers 2023-088, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    215. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "The importance of being special: Repo markets during the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 392-429.
    216. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    217. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    218. Zhaogang Song & Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    219. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Fed communication and the zero lower bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    220. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    221. Hanisch, Max, 2017. "The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 110-134.
    222. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    223. Stefania D'Amico & William B. English & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs: rationale and effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    224. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2014/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    225. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    226. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2014. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4731, CESifo.
    227. K. P. Prabheesh & Sanjiv Kumar, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    228. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    229. Hudepohl, Tom & Malderez, Suzanne, 2024. "The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework in 2022 and 2023," Occasional Paper Series 355, European Central Bank.
    230. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Fed asset buying and private borrowing rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may21.
    231. Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation?," Working Papers halshs-01545830, HAL.
    232. Stefania D'Amico & Tim Seida, 2020. "Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening," Working Paper Series WP-2020-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    233. Enders, Zeno & Hünnekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from german firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 45-63.
    234. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    235. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Risk-Taking Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Bank Lending," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-24, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2019.
    236. Bubeck, Johannes & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Manganelli, Simone, 2018. "The portfolio of euro area fund investors and ECB monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 103-126.
    237. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    238. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Nur vorübergehende Störung - Aufschwung bleibt intakt," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(3), pages 39-81.
    239. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2023. "The 1932 Federal Reserve Open‐Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    240. Emre Örün, 2020. "Theoritical Seekings in Macroeconomics," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 451-477, December.
    241. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    242. Jagjit Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2017. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 476, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    243. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Estimating Nominal Interest Rate Expectations: Overnight Indexed Swaps and the Term Structure," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1734, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    244. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    245. Riedler, Jesper & Koziol, Tina, 2021. "Scaling, unwinding and greening QE in a calibrated portfolio balance model," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-086, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    246. Montano Pierina & Quineche, Ricardo & Tipo, Royer, 2025. "Distributional Patterns in US Monetary Transmission: Quantile Cointegration Evidence," EconStor Preprints 323756, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    247. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2018. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 3, pages 049-095, Central Bank of Chile.
    248. Michael D. Bauer & Eric Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," Working Paper Series 2023-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    249. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
    250. Daniel L. Thornton, 2013. "An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?," Working Papers 2013-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    251. Marie Finnegan & Supriya Kapoor, 2023. "ECB unconventional monetary policy and SME access to finance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1253-1288, October.
    252. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2018. "Central bank-driven mispricing," SAFE Working Paper Series 226, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    253. Ling Wang, 2025. "Bank financing for SMEs in times of crisis: when “whatever-it-takes” confronts “black swans”," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-812, August.
    254. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    255. Aeimit Lakdawala & Bhanu Pratap & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2023. "Impact of RBI's monetary policy announcements on government bond yields: Evidence from the pandemic," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-04, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    256. Stefania D’Amico & N Aaron Pancost, 2022. "Special Repo Rates and the Cross-Section of Bond Prices: The Role of the Special Collateral Risk Premium [Pr icing the term structure with linear regressions]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 117-162.
    257. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    258. Chadha, J. S. & Macchiarelli, C. & Goel, S. & Hantzsche, A. & Mellina, S., 2026. "Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Geopolitical Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2606, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    259. Andrejs Zlobins, 2022. "Into the Universe of Unconventional Monetary Policy: State-dependence, Interaction and Complementarities," Working Papers 2022/05, Latvijas Banka.
    260. Michael T. Kiley & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2025. "The Evolution of Inflation Targeting from the 1990s to 2020s: Developments and New Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    261. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    262. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    263. Sam Miller & Boromeus Wanengkirtyo, 2020. "Liquidity and monetary transmission: a quasi-experimental approach," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 891, Bank of England.
    264. Tomasz Wieladek & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2016. "The European Central Bank's QE: A New Hope," CESifo Working Paper Series 5946, CESifo.
    265. Walker Ray, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Limits to Arbitrage: Insights from a New Keynesian Preferred Habitat Model," 2019 Meeting Papers 692, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    266. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    267. Chadha, J. S. & Turner, P. & Zampolli, F., 2025. "The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt Maturity: Solving the Bond Conundrum," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2519, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    268. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
    269. J. Benson Durham, 2013. "More on U.S. Treasury term premiums: spot and expected measures," Staff Reports 658, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    270. Mr. Tao Wu, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/189, International Monetary Fund.
    271. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    272. Daniel L. Thornton, 2014. "QE: is there a portfolio balance effect?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 55-72.
    273. Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
    274. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    275. Istiak, Khandokar, 2019. "The nature of shadow bank leverage shocks on the macroeconomy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    276. Benjamin Chabot & Gabe Herman, 2013. "A History of Large-Scale Asset Purchases before the Federal Reserve," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 140-152.
    277. David KRIZEK & Josef BRCAK, 2021. "Support for export as a non-standard Central Bank policy: foreign exchange interventions in the case of the Czech Republic," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 191-218, June.
    278. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    279. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policies and credit co-movement in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    280. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    281. Gerlach, Petra, 2013. "Euro area CDS spreads in the crisis: The role of open market operations and contagion," Papers WP449, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    282. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    283. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
    284. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    285. John Kandrac & Bernd Schlusche, 2021. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 635-676, June.
    286. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    287. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    288. James Dean & Scott Schuh, 2026. "From Conventional to Unconventional Monetary Policy: Is the Taylor Rule an Adequate Representation in Macro Models?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 1-48, February.
    289. António Afonso & Francisco Gomes Pereira, 2025. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: Impacts on loans, employment, and investment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 190-220, January.
    290. Takeshi Kimura & Jouchi Nakajima, 2013. "Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    291. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    292. Rafael Cezar & Maëva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    293. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    294. Sun, Xinxin & Lu, Xinsheng & Yue, Gongzheng & Li, Jianfeng, 2017. "Cross-correlations between the US monetary policy, US dollar index and crude oil market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 326-344.
    295. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    296. Lenza, Michele & Slacalek, Jiri, 2018. "How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2190, European Central Bank.
    297. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    298. Kabaca, Serdar & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "International transmission of quantitative easing policies: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    299. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

  26. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Borgy & Thomas Laubach & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    2. Yun, Tack & Kim, Jinsook & Ko, Eunmi, 2012. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," MPRA Paper 44212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.

  27. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Venetis, Ioannis & Ladas, Avgoustinos, 2022. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," MPRA Paper 115801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    5. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
    6. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    7. Ajit Dayanandan & Jai Chander & N. R. V. V. M. K. Rajendra Kumar, 2023. "Size and liquidity of government securities in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 71-90, June.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Francesco Audrino & Lorenzo Camponovo, 2013. "Oracle Properties and Finite Sample Inference of the Adaptive Lasso for Time Series Regression Models," Papers 1312.1473, arXiv.org.
    10. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Joint estimation of multiple network Granger causal models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 120-133.
    11. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    12. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    13. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
    15. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. António Afonso & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2010. "Level, Slope, Curvature of Sovereign Yield Curve and Fiscal Behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    19. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    20. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lauren Stagnol, 2019. "Extracting global factors from local yield curves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 341-350, September.
    22. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    23. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    24. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    25. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
    26. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    27. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    28. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    29. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

  28. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2010. "Over The Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Euro money market spreads during the 2007–? financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 548-557.
    4. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information In The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 42-64, January.
    5. Scott Brave & Hesna Genay, 2011. "Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis," Working Paper Series WP-2011-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    7. Affinito, Massimiliano, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Working Paper Series 1607, European Central Bank.
    8. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The 2007-? financial crisis: a euro area money market perspective," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 35-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    9. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2015. "Credit Risk, Liquidity and Lies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-112, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Jean-Loup, Soula, 2017. "Measuring heterogeneity in bank liquidity risk: Who are the winners and losers?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 302-313.
    12. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. L. Gambacorta & B. Hofmann & G. Peersman, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/765, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    15. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    16. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    17. León, Carlos & Machado, Clara & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2018. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 75-92.
    18. Edoardo Rainone, 2025. "Reservation Rates in Interbank Money Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(7), pages 1931-1971, October.
    19. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    20. Liu, Xiaoling & Wu, Yuhui & Zhang, Huan, 2023. "Collateral-based monetary policy and corporate employment: Evidence from Medium-term Lending Facility in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    21. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Securitization," NBER Working Papers 18611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Morten L Bech & Cyril Monnet, 2013. "The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Overnight Interbank Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 18840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Xue Li & Hexiang Yang & Jenny Jing Wang, 2025. "Who Deserves the Credit for Lower Unemployment? Structural Monetary Policy Tools and Corporate Labour Employment in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(4), pages 3829-3843, December.
    25. Tiantao Guo & Yan Wang & Wanzhu Zhang, 2023. "Standing lending facility in interbank market: Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-18, May.
    26. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Paulo José Saraiva & Luiz Fernando De Paula & André De Melo Modenesi, 2016. "A Crise Financeira Americana E As Implicações Para A Política Monetária," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 114, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    28. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Carla Soares & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Determinants of the EONIA Spread and the Financial Crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 82-110, October.
    30. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    31. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "Repo Market – A Tool to Manage Liquidity in Financial Institutions," MPRA Paper 51590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. S Battiston & G di Iasio & L Infante & F Pierobon, 2015. "Capital and contagion in financial networks," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Mauricio Calani & Kevin Cowan & Pablo García S., 2010. "Inflation Targeting in Financially Stable Economies: Has it been Flexible Enough?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 587, Central Bank of Chile.
    36. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    37. Emanuella Enenajor & Alex Sebastian & Jonathan Witmer, 2010. "An Assessment of the Bank of Canada's Term PRA Facility," Staff Working Papers 10-20, Bank of Canada.
    38. Francisco Nadal De Simone & Franco Stragiotti, 2010. "Market and Funding Liquidity Stress Testing of the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 45, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    39. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Sungbae An & Hyosang Kim & Seung-Hyun Kim & Da Young Yang & Jinhee Lee & Ko Un Cho & Wongi Kim & Jinill Kim, 2021. "포스트 코로나 시대 주요국의 통화·재정정책 방향과 시사점(hanges, Challenges and Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions in the Post Pandemic Era)," Policy Analyses 21-15, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    41. Volha Audzei, 2012. "Efficiency of Central Bank Policy During the Crisis : Role of Expectations in Reinforcing Hoarding Behavior," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp477, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    42. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "To the problem of turbulence in quantitative easing transmission channels and transactions network channels at quantitative easing policy implementation by central banks," Papers 1305.5656, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    43. Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2009. "Interbank Lending, Credit-Risk Premia, and Collateral," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 5-43, December.
    44. Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2014. "What Drives Bank Funding Spreads?," Working Paper Series WP-2014-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    45. Claudio Morana, 2014. "New insights on the US OIS spreads term structure during the recent financial turmoil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 291-317, March.
    46. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    47. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    48. Gallitschke, Janek & Seifried (née Müller), Stefanie & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2017. "Interbank interest rates: Funding liquidity risk and XIBOR basis spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-152.
    49. Skylar Brooks, 2024. "Central Bank Liquidity Policy in Modern Times," Discussion Papers 2024-06, Bank of Canada.
    50. Stefano Puddu & Andreas Waelchli, 2011. "Too TAF Towards the Risk," IRENE Working Papers 11-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    51. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    52. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    53. Guidolin, Massimo & Tam, Yu Man, 2013. "A yield spread perspective on the great financial crisis: Break-point test evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-39.
    54. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    55. Daniel L. Thornton, 2011. "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy: the term auction facility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Nov), pages 439-454.
    56. Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," NBER Working Papers 14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Sujit Kapadia & Matthias Drehmann & John Elliott & Gabriel Sterne, 2012. "Liquidity Risk, Cash Flow Constraints, and Systemic Feedbacks," NBER Chapters, in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 29-61, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. David Skovmand & Jacob Bjerre Skov, 2022. "Decomposing LIBOR in Transition: Evidence from the Futures Markets," Papers 2201.06930, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    59. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    60. Lukasz Goczek, 2011. "Federal Policy Responses To The 2007-2009 Credit Crunch In The Us," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 27-42, September.
    61. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    62. De Socio, Antonio, 2013. "The interbank market after the financial turmoil: Squeezing liquidity in a “lemons market” or asking liquidity “on tap”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1340-1358.
    63. Sunil Kumar & Anand Prakash & Krishna M. Kushawaha, 2017. "What Explains Call Money Rate Spread in India?," Working Papers id:11975, eSocialSciences.
    64. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    65. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    66. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," KAE Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    67. Zhou, Tao & Li, Zhongfei & Bai, Hengrui & Du, Zhidi & Huang, Jinbo & Ding, Zengcai, 2024. "Does unconventional monetary policy improve credit support for the industry chain? The mechanism of trade credit," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 180-192.
    68. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    69. V. Brousseau & Alexandre Chailloux & Alain Durré, 2013. "Fixing the Fixings: What Road to a More Representative Money Market Benchmark?," IMF Working Papers 2013/131, International Monetary Fund.
    70. Campbell, Sean & Covitz, Daniel & Nelson, William & Pence, Karen, 2011. "Securitization markets and central banking: An evaluation of the term asset-backed securities loan facility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 518-531.
    71. Jean-François Bégin, 2016. "Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, December.
    72. Andrew Rose & Tomasz Wieladek, 2012. "Too big to fail: some empirical evidence on the causes and consequences of public banking interventions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 460, Bank of England.
    73. Brossard, Olivier & Saroyan, Susanna, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-185.
    74. Bassett, William & Demiralp, Selva & Lloyd, Nathan, 2020. "Government support of banks and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    75. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 16165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Drobyshevsky, S. & Trunin, P., 2014. "The Evolution of Theory and Practice of Monetary Policy as a Result of the Global Economic Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 141-158.
    77. Sarmiento, Miguel, 2024. "Sudden yield reversals and financial intermediation in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    78. Woon K. Wong & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Wanru Yao & Peter Howells, 2016. "Liquidity and Credit Risks in the UK s Financial Crisis: How Quantitative Easing changed the relationship," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    79. Olivier Brossard & Susanna Saroyan, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Post-Print hal-01293693, HAL.
    80. Li, Xiao-Lin & Xie, Pinyi & Ding, Hui & Si, Deng-Kui, 2023. "Central bank lending facility and investment efficiency of non-SOEs: evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    81. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    82. Yoldas, Emre & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2018. "Financial stress and equilibrium dynamics in term interbank funding markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-149.
    83. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    84. Miguel Sarmiento, 2022. "Sudden Yield Reversals and Financial Intermediation in Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 1210, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    85. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Pragidis, 2019. "Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 91-112, February.
    86. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    87. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    88. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    89. Yasuo Hirose & Shinsuke Ohyama, 2010. "Identifying the Effect of the Bank of Japan's Liquidity Facilities: The Case of Commercial Paper Operations During the Financial Turmoil," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 461-483, December.
    90. Carla Soares & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Determinants of the EONIA spread and the financial turmoil of 2007-2009," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

  29. Eric Swanson & Glenn Rudebusch, 2009. "Risk Premia on Equity and Debt in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," 2009 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Mucka & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.

  30. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2025. "Quantitative easing, tightening, and the term premium channel in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3089-3125, December.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Yunus Aksoy & Henriqu S Basso, 2012. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1211, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Impact of Pension System Structure on International Financial Capital Allocation," Working Papers 1601, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    5. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Heiberger, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market search, endogenous disasters and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "Indexed versus nominal government debt under inflation and price-level targeting," Working Papers 2013_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Mandelman, Federico S., 2016. "Labor market polarization and international macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Dario Bonciani & Joonseok Jason Oh, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 802, Bank of England.
    11. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Levintal, Oren, 2016. "Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters," CEPR Discussion Papers 11115, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Casper de Vries & Xuedong Wang, 2015. "Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-066/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," Economics Working Papers 2020-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
    16. Brent Bundick & Andrew Lee Smith, 2020. "Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 20-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models," Working Papers No 4/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2018. "Beauty contests and the term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Marlène Isoré & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "Disaster Risk and Preference Shifts in a New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2015-16, CEPII research center.
    22. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    25. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    26. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    27. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9328, CESifo.
    28. Sinha, Arunima, 2016. "Monetary policy uncertainty and investor expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 188-199.
    29. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2022. "Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It," Working Papers 22-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    30. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
    31. Maarten Dossche, 2009. "Understanding inflation dynamics : Where do we stand ?," Working Paper Research 165, National Bank of Belgium.
    32. Jonathan Benchimol & Sergey Ivashchenko, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Post-Print halshs-03248949, HAL.
    33. Bernard Dumas & Marcel Savioz, 2023. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1615-1657.
    34. Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Substitution," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1056, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    35. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.
    36. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2009. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    37. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    38. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    39. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
    40. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2019. "Trend Inflation Meets Macro-Finance: The Puzzling Behavior of Price Dispersion," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    41. Alistair Macaulay & Chenchuan Shi, 2025. "Ambiguity Aversion, Portfolio Choice, and Life Expectancy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0425, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    42. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    43. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    44. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    45. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    46. Ascari, Guido & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 129-152.
    47. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.
    48. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Bianchi, Francesco, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    49. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2024. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Aldrich Eric Mark & Kung Howard, 2021. "Computational Methods for Production-Based Asset Pricing Models with Recursive Utility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, February.
    51. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    52. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    53. Erica X.N. Li & Tao Zha & Ji Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2020. "Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    54. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & CHALLE, Edouard, 2011. "Stock Prices and Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8387, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    55. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," EIEF Working Papers Series 1021, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2010.
    56. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2015. "Risk-Sensitive Linear Approximations," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    57. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
    58. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics," Discussion Papers 14/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    59. Kliem, Martin & Uhlig, Harald, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model with asset prices," Discussion Papers 37/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    60. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    61. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    62. Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2012. "Skewness Risk and Bond Prices," Cahiers de recherche 17-2012, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    63. Gourio, Francois, 2011. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8201, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    64. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
    65. Jerry Tsai, 2013. "Rare Disasters and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Series Working Papers 665, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    66. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Müller, Georg & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers within the euro area in the context of sovereign risk and bank fragility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    67. Chan, Ying Tung & Qiao, Hui, 2023. "Volatility spillover between oil and stock prices: Structural connectedness based on a multi-sector DSGE model approach with Bayesian estimation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 265-286.
    68. Eric Swanson, 2018. "Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 290-321, April.
    69. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    70. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    71. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2016. "Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models," NBER Working Papers 22183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Kollmann, Robert, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," MPRA Paper 77558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Gourio, François, 2012. "Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia," Working Paper Series 1463, European Central Bank.
    74. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    75. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. TAKAMIZAWA, Hideyuki & 高見澤, 秀幸, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of Term Structures of Bonds and Equities," Working Paper Series G-1-19, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    77. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting," Working Papers 2013_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    78. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2014. "Solvability of perturbation solutions in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 366-388.
    79. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    80. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions in DSGE Models," Dynare Working Papers 14, CEPREMAP.
    81. Kumar, Anshul, 2023. "A basic two-sector new Keynesian DSGE model of the Indian economy," MPRA Paper 115863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Mikkelsen, Jakob & Poeschl, Johannes, 2019. "Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 94729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Federico S. Mandelman & Andrei Zlate, 2016. "Offshoring, Low-skilled Immigration, and Labor Market Polarization," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 16-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    84. Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 616, Bank of England.
    85. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    86. Grasso, Adriana & Natoli, Filippo, 2018. "Consumption volatility risk and the inversion of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2141, European Central Bank.
    87. Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    88. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2016. "Uncertainty-driven business cycles: assessing the markup channel," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145608, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    89. Ginters Buss & Patrick Gruning, 2020. "Fiscal DSGE Model for Latvia," Working Papers 2020/05, Latvijas Banka.
    90. Perazzi, Elena, 2022. "Sovereign Bailouts: Are Ex-Ante Conditions Useful?," MPRA Paper 113462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    91. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    92. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Faia, Ester & Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego, 2013. "Bank and sovereign debt risk connection," SAFE Working Paper Series 7, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2013.
    93. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
    94. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    95. Einian, Majid & Nili, Masoud, 2016. "Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: An Investigation in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(2), pages 207-223, April.
    96. Chien-Chiang Wang, 2023. "Asset Market Frictions, Household Heterogeneity, and the Liquidity Theory of the Term Structure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 67-99, January.
    97. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    98. Mei, Dongzhou & Wang, Jiaxin & Zhang, Mi, 2025. "US monetary policy spillovers, maturity mismatch and Chinese corporate financing premium," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    99. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    100. Fuerst, Timothy S., 2015. "Monetary policy and the term premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-10.
    101. Brent Bundick & A. Lee Smith, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Forward Guidance Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 946-965, December.
    102. Dergunov, Ilya & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "Extreme inflation and time-varying expected consumption growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 334, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    103. Jean-Paul Renne & Sarah Mouabbi & Adrien Tschopp, 2026. "Inflation and Growth Risk: Balancing the Scales with Surveys," Working papers 1036, Banque de France.
    104. Boutros, Michael, 2026. "Windfall income shocks with finite planning horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    105. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    106. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    107. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    108. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 441, Bank of England.
    109. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty shocks in currency unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15579, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    110. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 364-389.
    111. Iania, Leonardo & Tretiakov, Pavel & Wouters, Rafael, 2022. "The risk premium in New Keynesian DSGE models: the cost of inflation channel," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022008, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    112. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    113. Ales Marsal & Lorant Kaszab & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Government Spending and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    114. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    115. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    116. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2018/242, International Monetary Fund.
    117. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 242, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    118. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    119. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
    120. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 8985, CESifo.
    121. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    122. Susanto Basu & Giacomo Candian & Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Risky Business Cycles," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1029, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 17 Sep 2024.
    123. Rabitsch-Schilcher, Katrin & Marsal, Ales & Kaszab, Lorant, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 350, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    124. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2021. "Risk Premiums, Nominal Rigidities, and Limited Asset Market Participation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1899-1921, October.
    125. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    126. Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
    127. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
    128. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    129. François Gourio, 2009. "Disasters Risk and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    130. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    131. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    132. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    133. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    134. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    135. Ian Dew‐Becker, 2014. "Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 837-888, August.
    136. Martin M. Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2013. "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," CREATES Research Papers 2013-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    137. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    138. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    139. Parantap Basu & Kenji Wada, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Bond Market in Japan: A New-Keynesian Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    140. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    141. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    142. Tobias Blattner & Jonathan Swarbrick, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis," Staff Working Papers 20-34, Bank of Canada.
    143. Zhiting Wu, 2024. "The sensitivity of risk premiums to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 353-390, June.
    144. Eric T. Swanson, 2013. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," Working Paper Series 2013-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    145. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2014. "Decomposing Risk in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100523, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    146. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 17133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    147. Anastasios G Karantounias, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Recursive Preferences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2283-2317.
    148. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    149. Andreas Schrimpf & Markus Sihvonen, 2025. "Inflation and the joint bond-FX spanning puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1320, Bank for International Settlements.
    150. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2014. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 2014-06, McMaster University.
    151. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    152. Ferre De Graeve & Maarten Dossche & Marina Emiris & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2008. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Working Paper Research 150, National Bank of Belgium.
    153. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    154. Gauti Eggertsson & Jacob Robbins, 2018. "Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: the Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States," 2018 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    155. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    156. Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2024. "A general theory of tax-smoothing," Discussion Papers 2444, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    157. Lance Kent & Toan Phan, 2019. "Time-Varying Skewness and Real Business Cycles," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 59-103.
    158. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    159. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen, 2016. "Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution," CREATES Research Papers 2016-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    160. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    161. Hakon Tretvoll, 2018. "Real Exchange Variability in a Two-Country Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 123-145, January.
    162. Li, Erica X.N. & Palomino, Francisco, 2014. "Nominal rigidities, asset returns, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 210-225.
    163. Stephen Morris, 2014. "The Statistical Implications of Common Identifying Restrictions for DSGE Models," 2014 Meeting Papers 738, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    164. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    165. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    166. Howard Kung, 2014. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," 2014 Meeting Papers 560, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    167. Curran, Michael & Dressler, Scott J., 2020. "Preferences, inflation, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    168. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    169. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Research Working Paper RWP 14-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    170. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    171. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    172. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper, 2020. "The Importance of Timing Attitudes in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 95-117.
    173. J. David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande & Pierlauro Lopez, 2015. "Macro-Finance Separation by Force of Habit," 2015 Meeting Papers 980, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    174. Olaf Posch, 2018. "Resurrecting the New-Keynesian Model: (Un)conventional Policy and the Taylor Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series 6925, CESifo.
    175. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    176. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    177. Martijn Boons & Frans de Roon & Fernando M. Duarte & Marta Szymanowska, 2013. "Time-Varying Inflation Risk and Stock Returns," Staff Reports 621, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    178. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    179. Alex Ilek & Irit Rozenshtrom, 2017. "The Term Premium in a Small Open Economy: A Micro-Founded Approach," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.06, Bank of Israel.
    180. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    181. Levintal, Oren, 2017. "Fifth-order perturbation solution to DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-16.
    182. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    183. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & McNeil, James, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    184. Mohsan Bilal, 2017. "Zeroing in: Asset Pricing at the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    185. Morteza Ghomi & Jochen Mankart & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis, 2025. "Debt Maturity and Government Spending Multipliers," Working and Discussion Papers WP 14/2025, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    186. Pintor, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    187. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    188. Faia, Ester, 2016. "Sovereign Risk, Bank Funding and Investors’ Pessimism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11340, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    189. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    190. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    191. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
    192. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    193. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    194. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2235-2272, December.
    195. Faia, Ester, 2017. "Sovereign risk, bank funding and investors’ pessimism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 79-96.
    196. Francisco (F.) Blasques & Marc Nientker, 2019. "Transformed Perturbation Solutions for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-012/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Feb 2020.
    197. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    198. Jens H. E. Christensen & Xin Zhang, 2025. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 2024-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    199. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    200. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    201. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Working Papers 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    202. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    203. Horváth, Ferenc, 2017. "Essays on robust asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM e54d7b33-1f27-4b0e-9f84-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    204. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
    205. Yongo Kwon, 2019. "Nominal GDP growth indexed bonds: Business Cycle and Welfare Effects within the Framework of New Keynesian DSGE model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 504, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    206. Thien Nguyen, 2019. "Public Debt and the Slope of the Term Structure," 2019 Meeting Papers 957, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    207. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching monetary policy regimes and the nominal term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119070, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    208. Jongrim Ha, 2020. "Nonlinear transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to international financial markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 350-369, December.
    209. Martin Andreasen, 2012. "On the Effects of Rare Disasters and Uncertainty Shocks for Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 295-316, July.
    210. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    211. Michael Wickens, 2015. "How Did We Get to Where We Are Now? Reflections on 50 Years of Macroeconomic and Financial Econometrics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 60-82, December.
    212. de Groot, Oliver, 2015. "Solving asset pricing models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 308-321.
    213. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    214. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Georg Muller & Niki Papadopoulou, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers with Sovereign Risk and Fragile Banks," Working Papers 2022-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    215. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks, Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    216. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    217. Ying, Shan & Sheen, Jeffrey & Gu, Xin & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2025. "Does monetary policy uncertainty moderate the transmission of policy shocks to government bond yields?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    218. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2021. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Staff Working Papers 21-58, Bank of Canada.
    219. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    220. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    221. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    222. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 23480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    223. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki X., 2020. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 502-533.
    224. Dumas, Bernard & Savioz, Marcel René, 2020. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15507, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    225. Martin M. Andreasen & Anders Kronborg, 2017. "The Extended Perturbation Method: New Insights on the New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2017-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    226. Andrew Y. Chen & Francisco Palomino, 2026. "An Irrelevance Theorem for Risk Aversion and Time-Varying Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 61, August.
    227. Brent Bundick & Trenton Herriford & Andrew Lee Smith, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium," Research Working Paper RWP 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    228. Ivan Jaccard, 2014. "Asset Returns and Labor Supply in a Production Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 889-919, August.
    229. Jean‐Jacques Forneron, 2023. "A Sieve‐SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 943-977, May.
    230. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    231. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    232. Huh, Sungjun & Kim, Insu, 2021. "Real estate and relative risk aversion with generalized recursive preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    233. Eric T. Swanson, 2009. "Risk aversion, the labor margin, and asset pricing in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2009-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    234. Mankart, Jochen & Priftis, Romanos & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2024. "The long and short of financing government spending," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302414, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    235. Michael Chin & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Cross-Country Co-movement in Long-Term Interest Rates: A DSGE Approach," Working Papers 753, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    236. Taeyoung Doh, 2008. "Long run risks in the term structure of interest rates: estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 08-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    237. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    238. Ivan Sutoris, 2018. "Asset Prices in a Production Economy with Long Run and Idiosyncratic Risk," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp620, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    239. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-1691, June.
    240. Max Ole Liemen & Michel van der Wel & Olaf Posch, 2018. "Structural Estimation of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models using Higher-Frequency Financial Data," 2018 Meeting Papers 1049, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    241. Martin M. Andreasen & Mads Dang, 2019. "Estimating the Price Markup in the New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    242. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    243. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Malkhozov, Aytek & Tamoni, Andrea, 2021. "Expectations and aggregate risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 91-108.
    244. Tamai, Toshiki, 2022. "Economic growth, equilibrium welfare, and public goods provision with intergenerational altruism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    245. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Stochastic discounting and the transmission of money supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2174, European Central Bank.
    246. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2021. "Interest Rate Rules, Rigidities and Inflation Risks in a Macro-Finance Model," MNB Working Papers 2021/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    247. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    248. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2023. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 689-716, May.
    249. Malkhozov, Aytek, 2014. "Asset prices in affine real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-193.
    250. Andreasen Martin M. & Zabczyk Pawel, 2015. "Efficient bond price approximations in non-linear equilibrium-based term structure models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, February.
    251. Pierlauro Lopez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Q Theory and the Link Between Inflation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 85-105, July.
    252. Kozak, Serhiy, 2022. "Dynamics of bond and stock returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 188-209.
    253. Sanha Noh, 2020. "Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Nonlinear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 795-841, December.
    254. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "The Equity Premium in a DSGE Model with Limited Asset Market Participation," Working Papers 275, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    255. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    256. Lin-Yee Hin & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2016. "Short Rate Forecasting Based On The Inference From The Cir Model For Multiple Yield Curve Dynamics," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-33, March.
    257. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    258. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    259. YiLi Chien & Junsang Lee, 2018. "The Real Term Premium in a Stationary Economy with Segmented Asset Markets," Working Papers 2018-30, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    260. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 806, Bank of England.
    261. Martin M. Andreasen, 2019. "Explaining Bond Return Predictability in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    262. Ben Lockwood & Erez Yerushalmi, 2014. "Should transactions services be taxed at the same rate as consumption?," Working Papers 1423, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    263. Francisco RUGE-MURCIA, 2014. "Indirect Inference Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic General Equilibrium Models : With an Application to Asset Pricing under Skewness Risk," Cahiers de recherche 15-2014, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    264. Alex Hsu & Francisco Palomino & Liang Qian, 2023. "Gone with the Vol: A Decline in Asset Return Predictability During the Great Moderation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3025-3047, May.
    265. Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower bound beliefs and long-term interest rates," Working Papers 2017-05, Swiss National Bank.
    266. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    267. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    268. Xu, Yuan, 2015. "Robustness to model uncertainty and the nominal term premium puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 124-137.
    269. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2019. "Predicting Long‐Term Financial Returns: VAR versus DSGE Model—A Horse Race," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2239-2291, December.
    270. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    271. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    272. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 182577, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  31. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    2. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2025. "Optimal Time Varying Parameters in Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: A Simulation Study on BRICS Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(4), pages 2081-2113, April.
    4. Dauwe, Alexander & Moura, Marcelo L., 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Insper Working Papers wpe_233, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    6. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    7. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Balter, Anne G. & Pelsser, Antoon & Schotman, Peter C., 2021. "What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 202-219.
    9. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Molenaars, Tomas K. & Reinerink, Nick H. & Hemminga, Marcus A., 2015. "Forecasting the yield curve: art or science?," MPRA Paper 61917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
    12. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    14. Wali Ullah, 2020. "The arbitrage-free generalized Nelson–Siegel term structure model: Does a good in-sample fit imply better out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1243-1284, September.
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian term structure models when interest rates are near the zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Robert Brooks & Pavel Teterin, 2020. "Samuelson hypothesis, arbitrage activity, and futures term premiums," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1420-1441, September.
    18. Hong, Zhiwu & Wang, Zhenhan & Li, Xinda, 2024. "Foreign trade and China’s yield curve during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis based on an extended arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    19. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 761, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    21. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    22. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    23. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "Invariance, observational equivalence, and identification: Some implications for the empirical performance of affine term structure models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 292-305.
    24. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    25. Hokuto Ishii, 2018. "Modeling and Predictability of Exchange Rate Changes by the Extended Relative Nelson–Siegel Class of Models," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.
    26. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    27. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    28. Rihab Bedoui & Islem Kedidi, 2018. "Modeling Longevity Risk using Consistent Dynamics Affine Mortality Models," Working Papers hal-01678050, HAL.
    29. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    30. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    31. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    32. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    33. Lajos Horváth & Piotr Kokoszka & Jeremy VanderDoes & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Inference in functional factor models with applications to yield curves," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 872-894, November.
    34. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    35. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    36. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    37. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    38. Lorenčič Eva, 2016. "Testing the Performance of Cubic Splines and Nelson-Siegel Model for Estimating the Zero-coupon Yield Curve," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 42-50, June.
    39. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    40. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    41. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2016. "What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk: Information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    42. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    43. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Artur Sepp & Parviz Rakhmonov, 2025. "Stochastic volatility for factor Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1-57, October.
    45. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    46. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    47. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2015. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model: do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 876-904, April.
    48. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.
    49. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2020. "Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, August.
    50. António Afonso & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2010. "Level, Slope, Curvature of Sovereign Yield Curve and Fiscal Behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    51. Molenaars, Tomas K. & Reinerink, Nick H. & Hemminga, Marcus A., 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve - Forecast performance of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model from 1971 to 2008," MPRA Paper 61862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    53. Leo Krippner, 2012. "Modifying Gaussian Term Structure Models When Interest Rates Are near the Zero lower bound (this is a revised version of CAMA working paper 36/2011)," CAMA Working Papers 2012-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    54. Kei Imakubo & Haruki Kojima & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "The natural yield curve: its concept and measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 551-572, September.
    55. Craig Blackburn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Consistent Dynamic Affine Mortality Model for Longevity Risk Applications," Working Papers 201107, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    56. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    57. Albert K. Tsui & Junxiang Wu & Zhaoyong Zhang & Zhongxi Zheng, 2023. "Forecasting term structure of the Japanese bond yields in the presence of a liquidity trap," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1205-1227, August.
    58. Valentin Jouvanceau & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2020. "Euro Area Monetary Communications: Excess Sensitivity and Perception Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 79, Bank of Lithuania.
    59. Aleš Bulíř & Jan Vlček, 2023. "Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 93-112, February.
    60. Takamizawa, Hideyuki & 高見澤, 秀幸, 2015. "Impact of No-arbitrage on Interest Rate Dynamics," Working Paper Series G-1-5, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    61. Blackburn, Craig & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Consistent dynamic affine mortality models for longevity risk applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 64-73.
    62. Caio Almeida & Axel Simonsen & José Valentim Vicente, 2012. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Working Papers Series 288, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    63. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    64. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    65. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    66. Januj Amar Juneja, 2021. "How do invariant transformations affect the calibration and optimization of the Kalman filtering algorithm used in the estimation of continuous-time affine term structure models?," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-97, January.
    67. Fabricio Tourrucôo & João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & André A. P. Santos, 2016. "Forecasting The Yield Curve With The Arbitrage-Free Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: Brazilian Evidence," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    68. Linlin Niu & Gengming Zeng, 2013. "The Discrete-Time Framework of the Arbitrage-Free Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    69. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 10502, Banco de la Republica.
    70. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2008. "Giving flexibility to the Nelso-Siegel class of term structure models," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211322560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    71. Januj Amar Juneja, 2022. "A Computational Analysis of the Tradeoff in the Estimation of Different State Space Specifications of Continuous Time Affine Term Structure Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 173-220, June.
    72. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    73. Marcio Laurini, 2011. "Bayesian Factor Selection in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2167-2176.
    74. Alexander Dauwe & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Business and Economics Working Papers 135, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    75. Bekker, Paul A., 2017. "Interpretable Parsimonious Arbitrage-free Modeling of the Yield Curve," Research Report 17009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    76. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2012. "Measuring the natural yield curve," NBP Working Papers 108, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    77. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    78. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A Tractable Framework for Zero-Lower-Bound Gaussian Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    79. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    80. Frank J. Fabozzi & Francesco A. Fabozzi & Diana Tunaru, 2023. "A comparison of multi-factor term structure models for interbank rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 323-356, July.
    81. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.

  32. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Wohlfarth, 2018. "Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy Attention on Global Asset Volatility Using Search Data," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    2. Marlène Isoré, 2012. "Essays in macro-finance [Essais de macro-finance]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-03669376, HAL.
    3. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2009. "Why do risk premia vary over time? A theoretical investigation under habit formation," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 361, Bank of England.
    5. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    6. Mehmet Pasaogullari & Simeon Tsonevy, 2011. "The term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve," Working Papers (Old Series) 1133, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Mirko Abbritti & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Antonio Moreno & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2013/223, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2018. "Beauty contests and the term structure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Søndergaard, 2017. "Revisiting the Forward Premium Anomaly Using Consumption Habits: A New Keynesian Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 516-540, July.
    10. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2020. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-482, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    14. Zha, Tao & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & , & Foerster, Andrew, 2013. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9464, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Ludovic Gauvin & Cameron McLoughlin & Dennis Reinhardt, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 512, Bank of England.
    16. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    17. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
    18. Gaudio, Francesco Saverio, 2025. "Stock market participation and macro-financial trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Michael Hatcher, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 440, Bank of England.
    20. Marlène Isoré & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2013. "Disaster Risk in a New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2013-12, CEPII research center.
    21. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    22. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    23. Kühl Michael, 2020. "The financial accelerator and marketable debt: the prolongation channel," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, January.
    24. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics," Discussion Papers 14/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    25. Kliem, Martin & Uhlig, Harald, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model with asset prices," Discussion Papers 37/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
    27. Jerry Tsai, 2013. "Rare Disasters and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Series Working Papers 665, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    28. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for non-linearity in multivariate stochastic processes," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    30. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    31. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2016. "Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models," NBER Working Papers 22183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    33. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
    34. Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    35. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    36. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
    37. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    38. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    39. Urban Jermann, 2013. "A Production-Based Model for the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 18774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2015. "Funding liquidity constraints and the forward premium anomaly in a DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 76-89.
    41. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    42. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    43. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    44. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 441, Bank of England.
    45. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    46. Kevin J. Lansing, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 67-103, October.
    47. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    48. Ales Marsal & Lorant Kaszab & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Government Spending and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    49. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2018/242, International Monetary Fund.
    50. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    51. Bianca De Paoli & Pawel Zabczyk, 2013. "Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 1-36, February.
    52. Lott, Sherwin, 2019. "Perturbations in DSGE models: An odd derivatives theorem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    53. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    54. Kung, Howard, 2015. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 42-57.
    55. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    56. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    57. Rabitsch-Schilcher, Katrin & Marsal, Ales & Kaszab, Lorant, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 350, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    58. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    59. François Gourio, 2009. "Disasters Risk and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Taeyoung Doh, 2009. "Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model," Research Working Paper RWP 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    61. Ian Dew‐Becker, 2014. "Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 837-888, August.
    62. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    63. Parantap Basu & Kenji Wada, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Bond Market in Japan: A New-Keynesian Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    64. Gildas Lamé, 2013. "Was there a "Greenspan conundrum" in the Euro Area ?," Working Papers 2013-07, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    65. Raphael Espinoza & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2015. "Monetary transaction costs and the term premium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(2), pages 355-375, June.
    66. Eric T. Swanson, 2013. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," Working Paper Series 2013-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    67. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Posch, Olaf & van der Wel, Michel, 2016. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models using mixed frequency macro and financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 116-137.
    68. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    69. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen, 2016. "Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution," CREATES Research Papers 2016-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    70. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    71. Li, Erica X.N. & Palomino, Francisco, 2014. "Nominal rigidities, asset returns, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 210-225.
    72. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    73. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    74. Howard Kung, 2014. "Macroeconomic linkages between monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," 2014 Meeting Papers 560, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    75. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
    76. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "Undesired Consequences of Calvo Pricing in a Non-linear World," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    77. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    78. Andreasen, Martin M. & Jørgensen, Kasper, 2020. "The Importance of Timing Attitudes in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 95-117.
    79. J. David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande & Pierlauro Lopez, 2015. "Macro-Finance Separation by Force of Habit," 2015 Meeting Papers 980, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    80. Hicham El Ouazzani & Hicham Ouakil & Abdelhamid Moustabchir, 2024. "A simulation of the macroeconomic effects of the Russia–Ukraine War on the Moroccan economy using the DSGE model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(S1), pages 75-93, December.
    81. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    82. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    83. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    84. Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    85. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    86. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Estimating DSGE models with Zero Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-32B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    87. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1680-1699, September.
    88. Kevin J. Lansing, 2011. "Asset pricing with concentrated ownership of capital," Working Paper 2011/18, Norges Bank.
    89. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & McNeil, James, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    90. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    91. Jaccard, Ivan, 2010. "Asset pricing, habit memory, and the labor market," Working Paper Series 1163, European Central Bank.
    92. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    93. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    94. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
    95. Francois Gourio, 2010. "Credit risk and Disaster risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 112, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    96. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2235-2272, December.
    97. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    98. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2023. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Working Papers 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    100. Horváth, Ferenc, 2017. "Essays on robust asset pricing," Other publications TiSEM e54d7b33-1f27-4b0e-9f84-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    101. Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, 2020. "Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 95-139, June.
    102. Michael Wickens, 2015. "How Did We Get to Where We Are Now? Reflections on 50 Years of Macroeconomic and Financial Econometrics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 60-82, December.
    103. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    104. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    105. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
    106. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    107. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    108. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Inflation versus price-level targeting and the zero lower bound: Stochastic simulations from the Smets-Wouters US model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    109. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    110. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
    111. Ivan Jaccard, 2014. "Asset Returns and Labor Supply in a Production Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 889-919, August.
    112. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    113. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
    114. Eric T. Swanson, 2009. "Risk aversion, the labor margin, and asset pricing in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2009-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    115. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    116. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    117. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-1691, June.
    118. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Stochastic discounting and the transmission of money supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2174, European Central Bank.
    119. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2021. "Interest Rate Rules, Rigidities and Inflation Risks in a Macro-Finance Model," MNB Working Papers 2021/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    120. Caroline Jardet & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    121. Abdymomunov Azamat & Kang Kyu Ho, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy regime shifts on the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 183-207, April.
    122. Andreasen Martin M. & Zabczyk Pawel, 2015. "Efficient bond price approximations in non-linear equilibrium-based term structure models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, February.
    123. Kozak, Serhiy, 2022. "Dynamics of bond and stock returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 188-209.
    124. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    125. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    126. Asiye Aydilek & Harun Aydilek, 2020. "An optimization model of retiree decisions under recursive utility with housing," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 258-277, April.
    127. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    128. Martin M. Andreasen, 2019. "Explaining Bond Return Predictability in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    129. Xu, Yuan, 2015. "Robustness to model uncertainty and the nominal term premium puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 124-137.
    130. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Sondergaard, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 365, Bank of England.
    131. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2019. "Predicting Long‐Term Financial Returns: VAR versus DSGE Model—A Horse Race," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2239-2291, December.

  33. Eric Swanson & Glenn Rudebusch, 2008. "Long-Run Inflation Risk and the Postwar Term Premium," 2008 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Pasaogullari & Simeon Tsonevy, 2011. "The term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve," Working Papers (Old Series) 1133, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  34. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2017. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 23304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Keleş, Gürsu & Polat, Tandoğan, 2017. "An empirical decomposition of the liquidity premium in breakeven inflation rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-192.
    5. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Seth Armitage & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2010. "Forecasting UK Inflation: An Empirical AnalysisÂ," CFI Discussion Papers 1002, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
    12. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    13. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.
    14. John Campbell & Robert Shiller & Luis Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2587, Yale School of Management.
    15. Colin Campbell & Anthony M. Diercks & Steven A. Sharpe & Daniel Soques, 2023. "The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Flávio de Freitas Val & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Marcelo Verdini Maia, 2011. "Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 83-100, July.
    17. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    18. Juan Andr�s Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Veland�a & Jos� Fernando Moreno-Guti�rrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflaci�n, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposici�n del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 13700, Banco de la Republica.
    19. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    20. Agnieszka Konicz & David Pisinger & Alex Weissensteiner, 2015. "Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 461-488, July.
    21. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2017. "How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. John C. Williams, 2015. "The view from here: the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy," Speech 135, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Cristhian Hernando Ruiz Cardozo & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2024. "The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt: Evidence from an Emerging Bond Market," Working Paper Series 2023-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Marcello Pericoli, 2019. "An assessment of recent trends in market-based expected iflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 542, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Chan R. Mang, 2014. "Uncertain Risk and Return in Bond Markets, I," 2014 Papers pma1706, Job Market Papers.
    26. Hamza Bennani, 2018. "Media Perception of Fed Chair's Overconfidence and Market Expectations," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    27. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
    28. Jean-Paul Renne, 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    29. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2020. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," Working Paper Series 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    31. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
    32. Michael D. Bauer, 2014. "Inflation Expectations and the News," Working Paper Series 2014-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    33. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Laura Wilcox, 2024. "Tale About Inflation Tails," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    35. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Franck Moraux & Olga Pakulyak, 2025. "How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    38. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    39. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    40. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    41. Jonathan Hambur & Richard Finlay, 2018. "Affine Endeavour: Estimating a Joint Model of the Nominal and Real Term Structures of Interest Rates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    42. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    43. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    44. John C. Williams, 2015. "The view from here: outlook and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    45. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "Has the Treasury benefited from issuing TIPS?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr18.
    46. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    47. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    48. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    49. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    50. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    52. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    53. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    54. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    56. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    57. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    58. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2025. "The inflationary impact of oil price shock in Korea: The role of inflation expectations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    59. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
    60. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    61. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Discussion Paper 2017-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    62. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates," Working Papers 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    63. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    64. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    65. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    66. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    67. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    68. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Jos� Fernando Moreno Guti�rrez, 2010. "Actualizaci�n de la descomposici�n del BEI cuando se dispone de nueva informaci�n," Borradores de Economia 7333, Banco de la Republica.
    69. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    71. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    72. Marcello Pericoli, 2013. "Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 927, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    73. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2021. "Is the future really observable? A practical approach to model monetary policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1189-1223, September.
    74. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    75. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    76. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    78. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    79. Duffee, Gregory R., 2013. "Bond Pricing and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 907-967, Elsevier.
    80. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2017. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," CREATES Research Papers 2017-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    81. Minwook Kang, 2020. "Inflation‐Indexed Bonds and Nominal Bonds: Financial Innovation and Precautionary Motives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 721-745, June.
    82. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
    83. Chlo Allison & Theuns de Wet, 2026. "Inflation targeting and the dynamics of inflation risk premia in South Africas bond market," Working Papers 11102, South African Reserve Bank.
    84. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    85. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    86. Francisco Palomino & Alex Hsu, 2013. "What do Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy tell us about the Real Yield Curve?," 2013 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    87. Arben Kita & Daniel L. Tortorice, 2021. "Arbitrage in International Sovereign Debt Markets? Evidence from the Inflation‐Protected Securities of Six Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1417-1448, September.
    88. Michael D. Bauer & Erin McCarthy, 2015. "Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    89. Jens H.E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An Arbitrage-Free Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model," NBER Working Papers 14463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    90. Abraham Lioui & Andrea Tarelli, 2023. "Money Illusion and TIPS Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 171-214, February.
    91. Netésunajev, Aleksei & Winkelmann, Lars, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    92. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    93. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    94. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
    95. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    96. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    97. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    98. Temperley Patricio, 2024. "La medición de las expectativas de inflación en Argentina: consultoras económicas versus mercados financieros," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4766, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    99. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    100. Jens H. E. Christensen & Xin Zhang, 2025. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 2024-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    101. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    103. Alturki, Sultan & Olson, Eric, 2022. "Oil sentiment and the U.S. inflation premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    104. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2019. "Inflation Expectations in the Costarican Sovereign Debt Market: Are They Anchored?," Documentos de Trabajo 1907, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    105. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    106. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    107. Acosta, Miguel & Ajello, Andrea & Bauer, Michael D. & Loria, Francesca & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2025. "Financial market effects of FOMC communication: Evidence from a new event-study database," IMFS Working Paper Series 227, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    108. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    109. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
    110. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    111. Benlagha, N., 2013. "Co-movement of Index linked bonds and conventional bonds in France: Subprime crisis and Structural Break, 2003-01, 2012-04," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 55-66.
    112. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen, 2016. "TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    113. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
    114. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    115. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 903, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    116. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2020. "The common and speci fic components of inflation expectation across European countries," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    117. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    118. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    119. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    120. Bouwman, Kees & Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "A practical approach to constructing price-based funding liquidity factors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-97.
    121. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    122. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    123. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure: An arbitrage-free approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    124. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2010. "Actualización de la descomposición del BEI cuando se dispone de nueva información," Borradores de Economia 620, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    125. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    126. Nicolás Cachanosky & Bryan P. Cutsinger & Thomas L. Hogan & William J. Luther & Alexander W. Salter, 2021. "The Federal Reserve's response to the COVID‐19 contraction: An initial appraisal," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1152-1174, April.
    127. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    128. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    129. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    130. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Gillan, James M., 2022. "Does quantitative easing affect market liquidity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    131. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    132. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    133. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    134. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    135. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
    136. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Other publications TiSEM 08878bbd-e76e-4216-bee9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    137. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    138. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "TIPS liquidity, breakeven inflation, and inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue june20.
    139. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    140. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2015. "International spillovers in inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1857, European Central Bank.
    141. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    142. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    143. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Winkelmann, Lars, 2014. "Inflation expectations spillovers between the United States and euro area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

  35. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Working Paper Series 2007-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    3. Wali Ullah & Yoshihiko Tsukuda & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting of Government Bond Yields with Latent and Macroeconomic Factors: Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 287, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Dempster, M.A.H. & Tang, Ke, 2011. "Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 639-652, March.
    5. Márcio Laurini, 2012. "Dynamic Functional Data Analysis with Nonparametric State Space Models," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-01, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    6. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.
    7. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    8. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    9. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Balter, Anne G. & Pelsser, Antoon & Schotman, Peter C., 2021. "What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 202-219.
    11. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    14. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    15. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    16. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    17. Joao F. Caldeira & Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Hudson S. Torrent, 2019. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the BRICS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis," Working Papers 201911, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Burak Saltoglu & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 48-63, November.
    19. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    20. Wali Ullah, 2020. "The arbitrage-free generalized Nelson–Siegel term structure model: Does a good in-sample fit imply better out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1243-1284, September.
    21. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Working Paper Series 2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    23. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2016. "The response of euro area sovereign spreads to the ECB unconventional monetary policies," Working Paper Research 309, National Bank of Belgium.
    24. Mario Figueiredo & Yuri F. Saporito, 2023. "Forecasting the term structure of commodities future prices using machine learning," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 57-90, March.
    25. Hong, Zhiwu & Wang, Zhenhan & Li, Xinda, 2024. "Foreign trade and China’s yield curve during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis based on an extended arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    26. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2018. "Fitting and forecasting yield curves with a mixed-frequency affine model: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 145-154.
    27. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    28. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    29. Misha Beek & Michel Mandjes & Peter Spreij & Erik Winands, 2020. "Regime switching affine processes with applications to finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 309-333, April.
    30. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    31. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "Global Yield Curves and Sovereign Bond Market Integration," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0902, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    32. Frédéric Godin & Ramin Eghbalzadeh & Patrice Gaillardetz, 2023. "Pricing swaptions and zero-coupon futures options under the discrete-time arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 171-206, October.
    33. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    34. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    36. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    37. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    38. Francesco Campigli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Maria Cristina Recchioni, 2021. "The talkative variables of the hybrid Heston model: Yields’ maturity and economic (in)stability," Working Papers 2021/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    39. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "Invariance, observational equivalence, and identification: Some implications for the empirical performance of affine term structure models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 292-305.
    40. Leo Krippner & Sandra Eickmeier & Julia von Borstel, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    41. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
    42. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    43. Francisco Rivadeneyra, 2012. "The U.S.-Dollar Supranational Zero-Coupon Curve," Discussion Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    44. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    45. Alexander Tsyplakov, 2011. "An introduction to state space modeling (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 9, pages 1-24, July.
    46. Almeida, Caio & Ardison, Kym & Kubudi, Daniela, 2014. "Approximating Risk Premium on a Parametric Arbitrage-free Term Structure Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
    47. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    48. Hokuto Ishii, 2018. "Modeling and Predictability of Exchange Rate Changes by the Extended Relative Nelson–Siegel Class of Models," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.
    49. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    50. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    51. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    52. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    53. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    55. Donati, Paola & Donati, Francesco, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank.
    56. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates?," Working Paper Series 2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    57. Engle, Robert & Roussellet, Guillaume & Siriwardane, Emil, 2017. "Scenario generation for long run interest rate risk assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 333-347.
    58. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    59. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    60. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    61. Gauthier, Geneviève & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2012. "Linearized Nelson–Siegel and Svensson models for the estimation of spot interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 442-451.
    62. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    63. Schupp, Fabian, 2020. "The (ir)relevance of the nominal lower bound for real yield curve analysis," Working Paper Series 2476, European Central Bank.
    64. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    65. Ajit Dayanandan & Jai Chander & N. R. V. V. M. K. Rajendra Kumar, 2023. "Size and liquidity of government securities in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 71-90, June.
    66. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    67. Recchioni, M.C. & Sun, Y., 2016. "An explicitly solvable Heston model with stochastic interest rate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 359-377.
    68. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2024. "Inflation (de-)anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2964, European Central Bank.
    69. Borochin, Paul & Chang, Hao & Wu, Yangru, 2020. "The information content of the term structure of risk-neutral skewness," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-274.
    70. Yajing Xu & Michael Sherris & Jonathan Ziveyi, 2020. "Market Price of Longevity Risk for a Multi‐Cohort Mortality Model With Application to Longevity Bond Option Pricing," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 571-595, September.
    71. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    72. Dare, Wale, 2017. "Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. treasury futures market," Economics Working Paper Series 1716, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    73. Sarah Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    74. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    75. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    76. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 576, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    77. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    78. A. Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & E. Vangelista, 2016. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Working papers 589, Banque de France.
    79. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    80. Alfaro, Rodrigo A., 2011. "Affine Nelson-Siegel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 1-3, January.
    81. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Armênio Dias Westin Neto, 2014. "Arbitrage In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 77-99, September.
    82. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    83. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    84. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    85. Thomas Nitschka & Diego M. Hager, 2022. "Responses of Swiss bond yields and stock prices to ECB policy surprises," Working Papers 2022-08, Swiss National Bank.
    86. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    87. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    88. Almeida, Caio Ibsen Rodrigues de & Vicente, José, 2007. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 657, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    89. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    90. Hager, Diego & Nitschka, Thomas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 and other Crises on the Responses of Swiss Bond Yields and Stock Prices to ECB Policy Surprises," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264018, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    91. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
    92. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    93. Francisco Ibáñez, 2016. "Calibrating the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: A Practitioner Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 774, Central Bank of Chile.
    94. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    95. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    96. Tobias Adrian & Daniel M. Covitz & J. Nellie Liang, 2013. "Financial stability monitoring," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    97. Wali Ullah, 2017. "Term structure forecasting in affine framework with time-varying volatility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(3), pages 453-483, August.
    98. Michal Dvorák & Zlatuše Komárková & Adam Kucera, 2019. "The Czech Government Yield Curve Decomposition at the Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 2-36, February.
    99. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2025. "The inflationary impact of oil price shock in Korea: The role of inflation expectations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    100. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    101. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
    102. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    103. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    104. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2016. "What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk: Information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    105. Li, Haitao & Ye, Xiaoxia & Yu, Fan, 2020. "Unifying Gaussian dynamic term structure models from a Heath–Jarrow–Morton perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1153-1167.
    106. Jae-Yun Jun & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2024. "Approximate Closed-Form Solutions for Pricing Zero-Coupon Bonds in the Zero Lower Bound Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-33, August.
    107. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    108. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers 0906, Banco de España.
    109. Butler, Sunil & Kokoszka, Piotr & Miao, Hong & Shang, Han Lin, 2021. "Neural network prediction of crude oil futures using B-splines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    110. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2019. "Inflation expectation, monetary policy credibility, and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    111. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    112. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    113. Artur Sepp & Parviz Rakhmonov, 2025. "Stochastic volatility for factor Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1-57, October.
    114. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    115. Nitschka, Thomas & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2023. "Shock and awe? Bond yield responses to domestic monetary policy in a small-open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    116. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    117. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2008. "Treasury bond yields and long-run inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug15.
    118. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Basil Guggenheim & Matthias Jüttner, 2019. "A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-18, December.
    119. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    120. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    121. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2015. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model: do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 876-904, April.
    122. Exterkate, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    123. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.
    124. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
    125. Eduardo Mineo & Airlane Pereira Alencar & Marcelo Moura & Antonio Elias Fabris, 2020. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Dynamic Constrained Smoothing B-Splines," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, April.
    126. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    127. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2020. "Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, August.
    128. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2009. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with an Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2009-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    129. Zaniar Ahmadi & Fr'ed'eric Godin, 2025. "Learning to Hedge Swaptions," Papers 2512.06639, arXiv.org.
    130. David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2022. "The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under," Staff Reports 1013, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    131. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    132. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    133. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    134. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    135. C Castro-Iragorri & J RamÔøΩrez, 2021. "Forecasting Dynamic Term Structure Models with Autoencoders," Documentos de Trabajo 19431, Universidad del Rosario.
    136. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    137. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    138. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    139. Carlos Castro-Iragorri & Juan Felipe Peña & Cristhian Rodríguez, 2021. "A Segmented and Observable Yield Curve for Colombia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 179-200.
    140. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    141. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
    142. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    143. Yallup, Peter J., 2012. "Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
    144. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
    145. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    146. Chen, Rui & Du, Ke, 2013. "A generalised arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model: The impact of unspanned stochastic volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 41-48.
    147. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    148. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    149. Ibanez, Francisco, 2015. "Calibrating the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: A Practitioner Approach," MPRA Paper 68377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    150. Bent Jesper Christensen & Mads Markvart Kjær & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2021. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," CREATES Research Papers 2021-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    151. Matthew Bickersteth & Yining Ding & Marek Rutkowski, 2021. "Pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    152. Nyholm, Ken, 2015. "A rotated Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro-financial applications," Working Paper Series 1851, European Central Bank.
    153. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    154. Dora Xia & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2018. "The negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 703, Bank for International Settlements.
    155. Mabelle Sayah, 2016. "Analyzing and Comparing Basel's III Sensitivity Based Approach for the interest rate risk in the trading book," Post-Print hal-01217928, HAL.
    156. Kourosh Rasmussen & Claus Madsen & Rolf Poulsen, 2014. "Can home-owners benefit from stochastic programming models? A study of mortgage choice in Denmark," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-23, January.
    157. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    158. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    159. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    160. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    161. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    162. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    163. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
    164. Jimmy Risk & Shen-Ning Tung & Tai-Ho Wang, 2025. "Dynamics of Liquidity Surfaces in Uniswap v3," Papers 2509.05013, arXiv.org.
    165. Nyholm, Ken, 2016. "US-euro area term structure spillovers, implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 1980, European Central Bank.
    166. Yonas Khanna & André Lucas & Norman Seeger, 2025. "Measuring and Explaining the CDS-Bond Basis Term-Structure Shape and Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-037/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    167. Takamizawa, Hideyuki & 高見澤, 秀幸, 2015. "Impact of No-arbitrage on Interest Rate Dynamics," Working Paper Series G-1-5, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    168. Dang-Nguyen, Stéphane & Le Caillec, Jean-Marc & Hillion, Alain, 2014. "The deterministic shift extension and the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 402-417.
    169. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    170. Caio Almeida & Axel Simonsen & José Valentim Vicente, 2012. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Working Papers Series 288, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    171. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    172. Sang-Heon Lee, 2025. "An Alternative Approach for Determining the Time-Varying Decay Parameter of the Nelson-Siegel Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2965-2990, May.
    173. Fang, Dong-Jie & Yeh, Zong-Wei & He, Jie-Cao & Lin, Shih-Kuei, 2024. "What drives jumps in the secured Overnight Financing Rate? Evidence from the arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model with jump diffusion," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    174. Azamat Abdymomunov & Kyu Ho Kang & Ki Jeong Kim, 2014. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    175. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    176. Elizondo Rocío, 2013. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico Using an Affine Model," Working Papers 2013-03, Banco de México.
    177. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri, 2012. "Non-Parametric Pricing of Interest Rates Options," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 32(2), April.
    178. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    179. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    180. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    181. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    182. Januj Amar Juneja, 2021. "How do invariant transformations affect the calibration and optimization of the Kalman filtering algorithm used in the estimation of continuous-time affine term structure models?," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 73-97, January.
    183. Fabricio Tourrucôo & João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & André A. P. Santos, 2016. "Forecasting The Yield Curve With The Arbitrage-Free Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model: Brazilian Evidence," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    184. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    185. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.
    186. Feng Guo, 2019. "Estimating yield curves of the U.S. Treasury securities: An interpolation approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 297-321, April.
    187. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    188. Bulíř, Aleš & Vlček, Jan, 2021. "Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 95-108.
    189. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2020. "The common and speci fic components of inflation expectation across European countries," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    190. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    191. Bouwman, Kees & Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "A practical approach to constructing price-based funding liquidity factors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-97.
    192. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    193. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    194. Januj Amar Juneja, 2022. "A Computational Analysis of the Tradeoff in the Estimation of Different State Space Specifications of Continuous Time Affine Term Structure Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 173-220, June.
    195. Lenka Košútová & Beáta Stehlíková, 2024. "Calibration of the Ueno’s Shadow Rate Model of Interest Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-12, November.
    196. Marcio Laurini, 2011. "Bayesian Factor Selection in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2167-2176.
    197. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2021. "Dynamic term structure models for SOFR futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1520-1544, October.
    198. Bekker, Paul A., 2017. "Interpretable Parsimonious Arbitrage-free Modeling of the Yield Curve," Research Report 17009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    199. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure: An arbitrage-free approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    200. Halberstadt, Arne & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The effect of conventional and unconventional euro area monetary policy on macroeconomic variables," Discussion Papers 49/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    201. Ishii, Hokuto, 2020. "Arbitrage-free relative Nelson–Siegel model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    202. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    203. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    204. Chen, S. & Härdle, W.K. & Wang, W., 2016. "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," Working Papers 16/06, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    205. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    206. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    207. Anastasis Kratsios & Cody B. Hyndman, 2017. "Deep Learning in a Generalized HJM-type Framework Through Arbitrage-Free Regularization," Papers 1710.05114, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    208. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    209. Geert Mesters & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman, 2014. "A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-071/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    210. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    211. Fusheng Luo & H'elyette Geman, 2026. "Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage," Papers 2605.12764, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
    212. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    213. Junko Koeda & Atushi Sekine, 2021. "Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan," Working Papers 2106, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    214. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    215. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    216. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    217. Ante Toni Vrdoljak, 2016. "Corporate Bond Yield Curve Estimation for the Croatian Financial Market Using the Nelson-Siegel Model," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(4), pages 269-284.
    218. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    219. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.
    220. Frank J. Fabozzi & Francesco A. Fabozzi & Diana Tunaru, 2023. "A comparison of multi-factor term structure models for interbank rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 323-356, July.
    221. Maria Cristina Recchioni & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2016. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: The effect of negative interest rates," Working Papers 2016/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    222. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.

  36. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2014. "Missing Variation in the Great Moderation: Lack of Signal Error and OLS Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George & Zhao, Yongchen, 2013. "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 219-221.
    3. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2012. "Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession," Working Papers hal-04141077, HAL.
    5. Yunus Aksoy & Henriqu S Basso, 2012. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1211, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Umit Bulut & Nicholas Apergis & Cem Isik & Serdar Ongan, 2025. "A new look at the finance–environment nexus: How yield spread affects environmental quality in the United States," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 749-761, January.
    7. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    9. Seitz, Franz & Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2015. "The Information Content Of Money And Credit For US Activity," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    11. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
    12. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    13. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    14. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    15. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    16. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    17. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    18. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    19. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    20. Rashad Ahmed & Menzie D. Chinn, 2025. "Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(8), pages 2075-2098, December.
    21. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
    23. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.
    25. Heikki Kauppi, 2019. "Recession Prediction with OptimalUse of Leading Indicators," Discussion Papers 125, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    26. Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    27. Andrzej Cieślik & Mehmet Burak Turgut, 2024. "Uncertainty and long-run economy: the role of R &D and business dynamism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1403-1441, April.
    28. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    29. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2016. "Do GDP Forecasts Respond Efficiently to Changes in Interest Rates?," Working Papers 16-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    30. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2016. "Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread," Working Papers 2016-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    31. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.
    32. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    33. Marie Bessec, 2016. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Working Papers hal-01358595, HAL.
    34. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    35. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    36. Lohrmann, Christoph & Luukka, Pasi, 2019. "Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 390-407.
    37. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
    38. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    39. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
    40. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    41. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    42. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020. "Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
    43. Marcell Peter Granat & Gabor Neszveda & Dorottya Szabo, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of the Predictive Power of European Yield Curves," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 22(3), pages 48-66.
    44. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    45. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    46. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    47. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    48. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2017. "What's the Story? A New Perspective on the Value of Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    50. Rybacki, Jakub, 2021. "Does International Monetary Fund Favor Certain Countries During the Fiscal Forecasting – Evidence of the Institutional Biases?," MPRA Paper 107681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    52. Leila Davis & Thomas R. Michl, 2024. "The Inverted Yield Curve in a 3-Equation Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 195-212, April.
    53. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    54. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    55. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Javier Sosvilla Rivero, 2013. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-19, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    56. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
    57. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    58. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2020. "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    59. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2016. "Do stock market trading activities forecast recessions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 370-386.
    60. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan & Vašaničová, Petra, 2024. "Macroeconomic environment and the future performance of loans: Evidence from three peer-to-peer platforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    61. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    62. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    63. Thomas Url, 2022. "Hohe Liquiditätszufuhr im Kreditwesen 2021 nur teilweise durch lebhafte Kreditnachfrage absorbiert," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(4), pages 263-274, April.
    64. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
    65. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Working Paper Series WP-2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    66. Marco Giacoletti & Kristoffer T. Laursen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Learning From Disagreement in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 395-441, February.
    67. David W. Findlay, 2024. "To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019)," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-63, February.
    68. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    69. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.
    70. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    71. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    72. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    73. Patrick J. Coe & Shaun P. Vahey, 2025. "Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 231-236, March.
    74. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    75. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Term Premium and Bank Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 06 Jul 2026.
    76. Matthieu Bussière & Stéphane Lhuissier, 2024. "What does an inversion of the yield curve tell us? [Que signifie l’inversion d’une courbe des taux ?]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 250.
    77. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    78. Lahiri, Kajal & Peng, Huaming & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Testing the value of probability forecasts for calibrated combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129.
    79. Lu, Ye & Suthaharan, Neyavan, 2023. "Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    80. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Alexandre Bonnet R. Costa & Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira C. Guillén & João Victor Issler & Artur Brasil Fialho Rodrigues, 2023. "Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting," Working Papers Series 587, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    82. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    83. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    84. Daniel H. Cooper & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2020. "Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy," Current Policy Perspectives 87522, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    85. Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
    86. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    87. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    88. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    89. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    90. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    91. Oscar Jorda & Travis Berge, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 308, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    92. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    93. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    94. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    95. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    96. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    97. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
    98. Serena Ng, 2014. "Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 1-34, February.
    99. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2023. "Yield spread selection in predicting recession probabilities," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1772-1785, November.
    100. Travis J. Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    101. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    102. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Recession fears and stock markets: An application of directional wavelet coherence and a machine learning-based economic agent-determined Google fear index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    103. Sabes, David & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2023. "Do yield curve inversions predict recessions in the euro area?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    104. António Afonso & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2010. "Level, Slope, Curvature of Sovereign Yield Curve and Fiscal Behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    105. Zaghum Umar & Mariya Gubareva & Tamara Teplova & Wafa Alwahedi, 2025. "Oil price shocks and the term structure of the US yield curve: a time–frequency analysis of spillovers and risk transmission," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 352(3), pages 363-387, September.
    106. Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2015. "Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    107. Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    108. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    109. Chatterjee, Ujjal K., 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and recessions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 64-75.
    110. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
    111. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
    112. Curry, Timothy J. & Fissel, Gary S. & Hanweck, Gerald A., 2008. "Is there cyclical bias in bank holding company risk ratings?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1297-1309, July.
    113. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    114. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    115. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    116. Li, He & Zhang, Zhichao & Zhang, Chuanjie, 2017. "China’s intervention in the central parity rate: A Bayesian Tobit analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 612-624.
    117. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    118. John G Powell & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2012. "Recession fears as self-fulfilling prophecies? Influence on stock returns and output," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 231-260, August.
    119. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    120. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers halshs-02549044, HAL.
    121. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2021. "Recession probabilities for the Eurozone at the zero lower bound: Challenges to the term spread and rise of alternatives," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1000-1026, September.
    122. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    123. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    124. Wojnilower, Joshua, 2018. "On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-56.
    125. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    126. Dean Croushore & Katherine Marsten, 2014. "The continuing power of the yield spread in forecasting recessions," Working Papers 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    127. Soojin Jo & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1702, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    128. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    129. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    130. Zihao Wang & Kun Li & Steve Q. Xia & Hongfu Liu, 2021. "Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network," Papers 2107.10980, arXiv.org.
    131. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    132. Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2020. "Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Dec 2020.
    133. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    134. Werner Ehm & Tilmann Gneiting & Alexander Jordan & Fabian Krüger, 2016. "Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 505-562, June.
    135. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    136. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis G. & Kyriazis, Dimitrios, 2015. "Does stock market liquidity explain real economic activity? New evidence from two large European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 42-64.
    137. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    138. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    139. Murè, Pina & Paccione, Cosimo & Marzioni, Stefano & Giorgio, Saverio, 2024. "How electricity and natural gas prices affect banking systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    140. Hanwool Jang & Yena Song & Sungbin Sohn & Kwangwon Ahn, 2018. "Real Estate Soars and Financial Crises: Recent Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, December.
    141. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
    142. Chen, Chih-Nan & Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2020. "The sources of pricing factors underlying the cross-section of currency returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 250-265.
    143. Rohit Garimella & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A New Labor Market Stress Indicator," Working Paper Series 2025-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    144. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    145. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    146. Belanger, Gilles, 2014. "Interest Rates Rigidities and the Fisher Equation," MPRA Paper 54705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    147. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    148. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    149. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Goebel & Karin Klieber, 2024. "Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts," Papers 2412.13076, arXiv.org.
    150. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    151. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    152. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    153. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    154. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
    155. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    156. Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    157. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    158. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, IZA Network @ LISER.
    159. Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
    160. Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
    161. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    162. Chatterjee, Ujjal K. & Zirgulis, Aras & Hüttinger, Maik & French, Joseph J., 2024. "Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    163. Cláudio Tadeu Cristino & Piotr Żebrowski & Matthias Wildemeersch, 2020. "Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, May.
    164. Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2021. "Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 723-740.
    165. Marie Bessec, 2015. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Post-Print hal-01276824, HAL.
    166. Caroline Jardet & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    167. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    168. Chatterjee, Ujjal Kanti & Bazzana, Flavio, 2024. "Do corporate credit spreads predict the real economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    169. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
    170. Wifo, 2022. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(4), April.
    171. Croushore, Dean, 2025. "Can you improve upon the GDP forecasts of professional forecasters using information about monetary policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    172. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Term structure and real-time learning," Working Papers 1803, Banco de España.
    173. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    174. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

  37. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Yunus Aksoy & Henriqu S Basso, 2012. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1211, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    2. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    3. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest tate differentials," Ruhr Economic Papers 600, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Mr. Wendell A. Samuel & Emilio Pineda & Mr. Mario Dehesa, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/077, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 489, Bank of England.
    7. Paolo Zagaglia, 2013. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a General-Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: What Role for Liquidity Services of Bonds?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(4), pages 383-430, November.
    8. Bini Smaghi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Global imbalances and monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 711-727.
    9. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    10. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    11. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Quantitative Easing and the Term Premium as a Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Papers halshs-02359503, HAL.
    12. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. Hess T. Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "A New-Keynesian Model of the Yield Curve with Learning Dynamics: A Bayesian Evaluation," Insper Working Papers wpe_250, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    16. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "What we do and don't know about the term premium," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul20.
    18. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    21. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    22. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    23. Michael T. Kiley, 2012. "The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    26. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2007. "Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével [Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 501-528.
    29. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    30. Elena Pelinescu & Mihaela Simionescu, 2017. "The Effects of the Recent Economic and Financial Crisis on the Romanian Economy," Working papers Globalization - Economic, Social and Moral Implications, April 2017 15, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    31. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    32. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    33. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 32, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    34. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 242, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    35. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    36. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    37. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Term Premium and Bank Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 06 Jul 2026.
    38. John Nana Francois, 2016. "Foreign Official Holdings of U.S Treasuries, Stock Effect and the Economy: A DSGE Approach," 2016 Papers pfr351, Job Market Papers.
    39. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The predictive content of the term premium for GDP growth in Canada: Evidence from linear, Markov-switching and probit estimations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 80-91.
    40. Hou, Keqiang & Li, Xing & Li, Zeguang & Wu, Ting, 2021. "Forecasting bond returns in a macro model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 524-545.
    41. Craig S. Hakkio & Andrew Lee Smith, 2017. "Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-39.
    42. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    43. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    44. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    45. Gildas Lamé, 2013. "Was there a "Greenspan conundrum" in the Euro Area ?," Working Papers 2013-07, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    46. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
    48. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    49. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    50. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
    51. McMillan, David G., 2021. "When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 331-343.
    52. Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
    54. Bingbing Dong, 2014. "Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 881, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    55. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2024. "Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    56. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    57. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    58. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    59. De Graeve, Ferre & Dossche, Maarten & Emiris, Marina & Sneessens, Henri & Wouters, Raf, 2010. "Risk premiums and macroeconomic dynamics in a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1680-1699, September.
    60. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    62. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    63. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
    64. John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Comment on "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 427-448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
    66. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Takahashi, Koji, 2023. "Do term premiums matter? Transmission via exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    67. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
    68. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    69. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    70. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    71. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Commentary on \\"Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 271-282.
    72. Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    73. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2014. "Interest Rates and Structural Shocks in European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 62031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    76. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    77. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2018. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," 2018 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    78. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    79. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    80. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    81. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    82. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "A New-Keynesian model of the yield curve with learning dynamics: A Bayesian evaluation," MPRA Paper 34461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2011.
    83. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The signaling channel for Federal Reserve bond purchases," Working Paper Series 2011-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    84. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    85. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    86. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    87. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    88. Carlo A. Favero, 2010. "Comment on "Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model"," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 440-445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    89. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 806, Bank of England.
    90. Carrera, César & Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson, 2014. "Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2014-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    91. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  38. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Pasaogullari & Simeon Tsonevy, 2011. "The term structure of inflation compensation in the nominal yield curve," Working Papers (Old Series) 1133, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Carol C. Bertaut & Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco, 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States, 2003-2007," International Finance Discussion Papers 1014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    5. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 435, Bank of England.
    6. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    7. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Euro Area Monetary Policy in Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 2009/185, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dong He & Robert N. McCauley, 2010. "Offshore Markets for the Domestic Currency: Monetary and Financial Stability Issues," Working Papers 1002, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    11. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 2, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    12. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2010. "The Bond Yield Conundrum : Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy," Other publications TiSEM 8b320ebf-1447-46c9-82e3-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
    14. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    17. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012. "Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
    20. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    21. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    23. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    24. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    25. Weißbach, Rafael & Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav & Zimmermann, Guido, 2006. "The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast," Technical Reports 2006,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    26. de Roode, F.A., 2014. "Model uncertainty in financial markets : Long run risk and parameter uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM c425daf8-c7a3-4ea4-8b18-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    27. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    28. Lange, Ronald H., 2017. "The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    29. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso, 2015. "Securitization and asset prices," Working Papers 1526, Banco de España.
    30. Catherine Mann & Oren Klachkin, 2015. "Has Quantitative Easing Affected the U.S. Treasury Auction Market?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 135-146, March.
    31. Bertaut, Carol & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder & Kamin, Steven & Tryon, Ralph, 2012. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 219-234.
    32. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou & Chris Stewart, 2011. "The contribution of us bond demand to the us bond yield conundrum of 2004 to 2007: an empirical investigation," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10719, Universidad EAFIT.
    33. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
    34. Joslin, Scott & Konchitchki, Yaniv, 2018. "Interest rate volatility, the yield curve, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 344-362.
    35. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    37. Mansur, Alfan & Al Arif, Munafsin, 2017. "Dampak Kepemilikan Asing terhadap Pasar Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) Indonesia [The Impact of Foreign Ownership on the Indonesian Government Bonds Market]," MPRA Paper 93944, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jun 2017.
    38. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields," Working Papers 2012-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    39. Catherine L. Mann & Oren Klachkin, 2014. "U.S. Treasury Auction Yields Before and During Quantitative Easing: Market Factors vs.Auction Specific Factors," Working Papers 67, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    40. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    41. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    42. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    43. Joseph P Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Domestic vs. International Correlations of Interest Rate Maturities," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1082-1090.
    44. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    45. Iryna Kaminska, 2008. "A no-arbitrage structural vector autoregressive model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 357, Bank of England.
    46. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    47. Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    49. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017. "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 12-31, April.
    50. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/066, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    52. Hasan Cömert, 2012. "Decoupling between the Federal Funds Rate and Long-term Interest Rates: Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the U.S," Working Papers wp295, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    53. Simeon Coleman & Kavita Sirichand, 2014. "International yield curve comovements: impact of the recent financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2014_07, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2014.
    54. Caroline Jardet & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    55. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    56. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
    57. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    58. Lange, Ronald H., 2015. "International long-term yields and monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 292-310.
    59. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Carol C. Bertaut & Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  39. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Andrew Haldane & Matt Roberts-Sklar & Tomasz Wieladek & Chris Young, 2016. "QE: The Story so far," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 624, Bank of England.
    3. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Nicola Acocella, 2008. "Controllability under rational expectations," CIMEO Working Paper Series 42, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    4. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
    5. Jeff W. Huther & Jason S. Seligman, 2013. "Yield curve impacts of forward guidance and maturity extension programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    7. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    8. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2018. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," Staff Working Papers 18-2, Bank of Canada.
    9. Giorgio Di Giorgio & Guido Traficante, 2011. "The loss from uncertainty on policy targets," Working Papers CASMEF 1104, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    10. Daniel Laskar, 2010. "Imprecision of Central Bank Announcements and Credibility," PSE Working Papers halshs-00562595, HAL.
    11. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The effect of ECB forward guidance on policy expectations," Working Papers hal-03459188, HAL.
    12. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2015. "What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do?," Working Paper Series WP-2015-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    13. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Purdah: on the rationale for central bank silence around policy meetings," Working Paper Series 868, European Central Bank.
    14. Clemens J. M. Kool Author-Name-First Clemens J. M. & Daniel L. Thornton Author-Name-First Daniel L., 2014. "How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?," Working Papers CASMEF 1405, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    15. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh K. Zahiri, 2016. "Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?," Working Papers No 8/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    19. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of Federal Reserve forward guidance," Working Paper Series WP-2012-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2025. "Open-sourced central bank macroeconomic models," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: enhancing the access to and sharing of data, volume 64, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Nicola Acocella, 2013. "When Can Policy Makers Anchor Expectations? Dynamic controllability and the limits to time inconsistency," CIMEO Working Paper Series 104, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    22. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010. "Central bank’s macroeconomic projections and learning," NBP Working Papers 72, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    23. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    24. Mirkov, Nikola & Natvik, Gisle James, 2013. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Working Papers on Finance 1303, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    25. Rosa, Carlo, 2008. "Talking less and moving the market more: is this the recipe for monetary policy effectiveness?: evidence from the ECB and the Fed," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    26. Melecky, Martin & Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 10545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Man-Keung Tang & Mr. Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2011/209, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Non-nested Information Sets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2009 Meeting Papers 896, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Does Forward Guidance Matter in Small Open Economies? Examples from Europe," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, June.
    30. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Rationalizing the Bias in Central Banks' Interest Rate Projections," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    31. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2022. "Testing for the rationality of central bank interest rate forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1037-1078, March.
    32. Marinescu, Ion-Iulian & Horobet, Alexandra & Lupu, Radu, 2018. "Dichotomous stock market reaction to episodes of rules and discretion in the US monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 56-66.
    33. Thealexa Becker & Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 57-78.
    34. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Nicola Acocella, 2013. "Central banks and economic policy after the crisis: What have we learned?," CIMEO Working Paper Series 106, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    35. Marius HERBEI & Florin DUMITER, 2010. "The emerging role of expectations in conducting and coordonating monetary policy," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(11), pages 196-203, May.
    36. Stenfors, Alexis, 2014. "LIBOR deception and central bank forward (mis-)guidance: Evidence from Norway during 2007–2011," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 452-472.
    37. Luis Pacheco, 2010. "ECB Projections: should leave it to the pros?," Working Papers 11/2010, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    38. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
    39. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Post-Print hal-03457846, HAL.
    40. John C. Williams, 2016. "Discussion of “Language after liftoff: Fed communication away from the zero lower bound”," Speech 164, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    41. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718.
    42. Coroneo, Laura, 2026. "Forecasting for monetary policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 22-33.
    43. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2008. "Monetary Policy Inclinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6761, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    44. Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2008. "Central bank policy rate guidance and financial market functioning," BIS Working Papers 246, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    46. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 39-95, December.
    47. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "The information content of central bank interest rate projections: Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    48. Güneş Kamber & Özer Karagedikli & Christie Smith, 2015. "Applying an Inflation Targeting Lens to Macroprudential Policy 'Institutions'," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    49. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
    50. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    51. Natvik, Gisle J. & Rime, Dagfinn & Syrstad, Olav, 2020. "Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    52. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2021. "Versatile forward guidance: escaping or switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    53. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2013. "Central Bank Forecasts of Policy Interest Rates: An Evaluation of the First Years," Working Papers 128, National Institute of Economic Research.
    54. Eric Leeper, 2010. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine "Good" Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 580, Central Bank of Chile.
    55. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Nicola Acocella, 2008. "Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations," CIMEO Working Paper Series 34, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    56. Gai, Prasanna & Lou, Edmund & Wu, Sherry X., 2020. "Targeted disclosure and monetary policy flexibility: A simple model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    57. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 1, pages 001-025, Central Bank of Chile.
    58. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007. "Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency," Working Paper Series 821, European Central Bank.
    59. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni, 2008. "When Can Central Banks Anchor Expectations? Policy communication and controllability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7078, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    60. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79861, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    61. Isabelle SALLE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2013. "How Transparent About Its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2013-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    62. Petra M. Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 235-268, August.
    63. Gomes, Sandra & Iskrev, Nikolay & Mendicino, Caterina, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 108-128.
    64. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Coordinating Expectations in Monetary Policy," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000956, UCLA Department of Economics.
    65. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    66. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
    67. Michelle L. Barnes, 2014. "Let's talk about it: what policy tools should the Fed \\"normally\\" use?," Current Policy Perspectives 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    68. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
    69. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 15514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    70. Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Does Greater Transparency Stabilize Output? Evidence from Panel Data," SBP Working Paper Series 59, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    71. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Enhancing Fed credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar17.
    72. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    73. Robert S. Chirinko & Christopher Curran, 2013. "Greenspan Shrugs: Central Bank Communication, Formal Pronouncements and Bond Market Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 4236, CESifo.
    74. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    75. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
    76. Alexis Stenfors, 2014. "The Swedish Financial System," FESSUD studies fstudy13, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    77. Martin Nordström, 2020. "A forecast evaluation of the Riksbank's policy‐rate projections," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
    78. Carl E. Walsh, 2008. "Announcements and the role of policy guidance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 421-442.
    79. Osama D. Sweidan, 2011. "Monetary policy inertia: case of Jordan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 144-155, May.
    80. Delis, Manthos & Hong, Sizhe & Paltalidis, Nikos & Philip, Dennis, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending," MPRA Paper 98159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni, 2012. "Expectations Dynamics: Policy, Announcements and Limits to Dynamic Inconsistency," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-25, April.
    82. John C. Williams, 2013. "Will unconventional policy be the new normal?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct7.
    83. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," Working Paper Series WP-2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    84. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/84, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    85. Feroli, Michael & Greenlaw, David & Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2017. "Language after liftoff: Fed communication away from the zero lower bound," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 452-490.
    86. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    87. George A. Kahn, 2007. "Communicating a policy path: the next frontier in central bank transparency?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q I), pages 25-51.
    88. Phan, Tuan, 2013. "Should Central Banks publish interest rate forecasts? - A Survey," MPRA Paper 44676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2013.
    89. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    90. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    91. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    92. Carlo Rosa, 2016. "Fedspeak: Who Moves U.S. Asset Prices?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 223-261, December.
    93. Elmar Mertens, 2008. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion?," Working Papers 08.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    94. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-04095385, HAL.
    95. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    96. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    97. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may22.
    98. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    99. Mr. Marcel Peter & Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 2006/278, International Monetary Fund.
    100. Olalla, Myriam García & Gómez, Alejandro Ruiz, 2011. "Robust control and central banking behaviour," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1265-1278, May.
    101. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Staff Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada.
    102. Brent Bundick & Trenton Herriford, 2017. "How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-22.
    103. Eric M. Leeper, 2011. "Anchors Aweigh: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 11, pages 411-453, Central Bank of Chile.
    104. John C. Williams, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 367-375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    105. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.

  40. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    2. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    3. Josué Cortés Espada & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Alberto Torres, 2009. "An empirical analysis of the mexican term structure of interest rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2300-2313.
    4. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
    5. Marco Matsumara & Ajax R.B. Moreira, 2005. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads? Studying the Brazilian Case," Discussion Papers 1106, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    6. Margherita Bottero & Stefano schiaffi, 2022. "Firm liquidity and the transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1378, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2021. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Degree of Persistence of US Stock Prices and Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 8976, CESifo.
    8. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    9. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Marco S. Matsumura, 2015. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 0173, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Paolo Zagaglia, 2013. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a General-Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: What Role for Liquidity Services of Bonds?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(4), pages 383-430, November.
    13. Raffaella Giacomini & Jason Lu & Katja Smetanina, 2024. "Perceived shocks and impulse responses," IFS Working Papers WCWP21/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Lee, Shyan Yuan & Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Chung, Yi-Fang, 2017. "Pricing corporate bonds and constructing credit curves in a developing country: The case of the Taiwan bond fund crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 261-274.
    16. Jacopo Panerati & Nicolas Schwind & Stefan Zeltner & Katsumi Inoue & Giovanni Beltrame, 2018. "Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    17. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    18. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
    19. Kwangyong Park, 2020. "The Excess Sensitivity of Long-term Interest rates and Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 2020-29, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    20. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
    21. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    22. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
    24. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    25. Jean-Paul Renne, 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    26. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February.
    27. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
    28. Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Ying He, 2011. "An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2011/247, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    30. Malefane Molibeli & Gary van Vuuren, 2025. "South African Government Bond Yields and the Specifications of Affine Term Structure Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-28, April.
    31. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2006. "A Factor Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Risk Premium Estimation for Latvia's Money Market," Working Papers 2006/01, Latvijas Banka.
    32. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2007. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    33. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 575-594.
    35. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "China'S Official Rates And Bond Yields," Working Paper Series 2009-3, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    36. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    38. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    40. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    41. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    42. Weißbach, Rafael & Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav & Zimmermann, Guido, 2006. "The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast," Technical Reports 2006,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    43. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    44. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    45. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    46. Wang, Zijun, 2012. "The causal structure of bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-102.
    47. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    48. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    49. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    50. Jing Yuan & Yan Peng & Tsun Zongwu Cai & Zhengyi Zhang, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 23(2), pages 197-221, November.
    51. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    52. Serati, Massimiliano & Manera, Matteo & Plotegher, Michele, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," International Energy Markets Working Papers 44426, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    53. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    54. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.
    55. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    56. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    58. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    59. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    61. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
    62. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    63. Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2015. "Equity volatility as a determinant of future term-structure volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-51.
    64. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
    65. Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto, 2023. "A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1255, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    66. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    67. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & Maxim Zagonov, 2015. "Public Real Estate and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cross-Country Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 503-540, November.
    68. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
    69. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    70. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2009. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    71. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    72. Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 952-970, April.
    73. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    74. Bhansali, Vineer & Dorsten, Matthew P. & Wise, Mark B., 2009. "Asymmetric monetary policy and the yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1408-1425, December.
    75. Raffaella Giacomini & Jason Lu & Katja Smetanina, 2024. "Perceived shocks and impulse responses," CeMMAP working papers 21/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    76. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    77. David Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada.
    78. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    79. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    80. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    81. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification test for Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 12962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    82. Marco S. Matsumura, 2006. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 1241, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    83. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    84. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    85. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    86. Bernaschi, Massimo & Tacconi, Elisa & Vergni, Davide, 2008. "A parametric study of the term structure dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1264-1272.
    87. Bennouna, Hicham, 2019. "Interest rate pass-through in Morocco: Evidence from bank-level survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 142-157.
    88. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    89. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "Forecasting the Yield Curve Using Priors from No Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 612, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    90. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
    91. Marco Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2015. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads? Studying the Brazilian Case," Discussion Papers 0152, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    92. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    93. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    94. Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2015. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve with no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 0171, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    95. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    96. Sensarma, Rudra & Bhattacharyya, Indranil, 2015. "Measuring monetary policy and its impact on the bond market of an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 81067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    97. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    98. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
    99. Marco Shinobu Matsumura & Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models," Working Papers Series 223, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    100. Gimeno, Ricardo & Nave, Juan M., 2009. "A genetic algorithm estimation of the term structure of interest rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2236-2250, April.
    101. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
    102. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    103. Januj Amar Juneja, 2022. "A Computational Analysis of the Tradeoff in the Estimation of Different State Space Specifications of Continuous Time Affine Term Structure Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 173-220, June.
    104. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
    105. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    106. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    107. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    108. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    109. Rui Chen & Jiri Svec & Maurice Peat, 2016. "Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 99-111, June.
    110. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    111. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy: Asset Allocation Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2012/078, International Monetary Fund.
    112. Markus Pelger & Ruoxuan Xiong, 2018. "State-Varying Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Papers 1807.02248, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    113. Cordeiro, Werley & Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2025. "Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using macroeconomics expectations and time-varying volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    114. Ferrero, Giuseppe & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts," Working Paper Series 979, European Central Bank.
    115. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    116. Emrah Ahi & Vedat Akgiray & Emrah Sener, 2018. "Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 23-49, January.
    117. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2015. "Prediction of Term Structure with Potentially Misspecified Macro-Finance Models near the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 85709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    118. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    119. Jing Yuan & Yan Peng & Zongwu Cai & Zhengyi Zhang, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202214, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    120. Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve With no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 1210, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    121. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    122. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    123. Nagano, Teppei & Baba, Naohiko, 2008. "Extracting market expectations from yield curves augmented by money market interest rates: the case of Japan," Working Paper Series 980, European Central Bank.
    124. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The transmission channels between the financial and real sectors: a critical survey of the literature," BCBS Working Papers 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    125. Marco S. Matsumura, 2007. "Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 060, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

  41. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. William B. English & J. David López-Salido & Robert J. Tetlow, 2013. "The Federal Reserve's framework for monetary policy - recent changes and new questions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    3. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2016. "Persistence and Volatility of Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Supply Shocks Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145752, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    7. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2024. "Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes," Working Papers No 04/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    10. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers wpdea1007, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    11. Roc Armenter, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?," Working Papers 2011/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    13. Yongseung Jung, 2008. "A Look at Habit Persistence over Business Cycles," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 14(3), pages 45-85, September.
    14. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 470-481, December.
    15. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2019. "Shock matters for estimating monetary policy rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 54-56.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    17. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy¤," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0608, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Aymen Makni, 2019. "A Macro-Model to Monetary Transmission Analysis in Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 13-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Jiang, Lei, 2014. "Stock liquidity and the Taylor rule," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 202-214.
    20. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    21. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
    23. Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2008. "Targets, zones, and asymmetries: a flexible nonlinear model of recent UK monetary policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 423-439, July.
    24. Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Policy Rate Decisions and Unbiased Parameter Estimation in Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2008/2, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    25. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    26. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. James Hebden & J. David López-Salido, 2018. "From Taylor's Rule to Bernanke's Temporary Price Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    28. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    29. Yash P. Mehra & Bansi Sawhney, 2010. "Inflation measure, Taylor rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke years," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(2Q), pages 123-151.
    30. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2009. "The Balance Sheet Channel," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 537, Central Bank of Chile.
    31. VanderHart, Peter G., 2009. "What is the best way to impede a central bank?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 784-797, August.
    32. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.
    33. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    35. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," NBER Working Papers 16707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates Since 1950," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 415-453, September.
    37. De Lipsis Vincenzo, 2021. "Dating Structural Changes in UK Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 509-539, June.
    38. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. De Fiore, Fiorella & Tristani, Oreste, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a model of the credit channel," Working Paper Series 1043, European Central Bank.
    40. Manuel Joaquim Da Natividade Silva & Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2016. "Dynamic relations of the inertia of monetary policy: application to the Brazilian case by a Kalman approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24.
    41. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    42. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 131-148, July.
    43. Stan Hurn & Nicholas Johnson & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2018. "Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2018-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    44. Alica Ida Bonk & Laure Simon, 2021. "From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender," Staff Working Papers 21-42, Bank of Canada.
    45. Eduardo Amaral, 2025. "The capital puzzle," BIS Working Papers 1288, Bank for International Settlements.
    46. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
    47. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    48. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Francisco Muñoz, 2012. "Monetary policy decisions by the world's central banks using real-time data," Documentos de Trabajo 426, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    49. Hasui, Kohei & Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2021. "Optimal irreversible monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    50. Mikhail V. Oet & Kalle Lyytinen, 2017. "Does Financial Stability Matter to the Fed in Setting US Monetary Policy?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 389-432.
    51. Keinsley, Andrew, 2016. "Indexing the income tax code, monetary/fiscal interaction, and the great moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-20.
    52. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    53. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1013, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    54. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    55. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    56. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
    57. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Do errors in forecasting inflation lead to errors in forecasting interest rates?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    58. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    59. Gorodnichenko, Y & Coibion, O, 2016. "How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qc6f09b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    60. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    61. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    62. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    63. Arina Wischnewsky & David‐Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Financial stability and the Fed: Evidence from congressional hearings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1192-1214, July.
    64. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    65. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
    66. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
    67. Flamini, Alessandro & Fracasso, Andrea, 2011. "Household's preferences and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 64-67, April.
    68. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2013. "Taylor's Rule Versus Taylor Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 71-93, February.
    69. Söderström, Ulf & Iversen, Jens & LASEEN, PER & Lundvall, Henrik, 2016. "Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank," CEPR Discussion Papers 11203, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    70. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    71. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks in a New-Keynesian Framework with Capital Accumulation," Post-Print halshs-01151642, HAL.
    72. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    73. King Yoong Lim & Pengfei Jia, 2019. "Police spending and economic stabilization in a monetary economy with crime and differential human capital," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2019/02, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    74. Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
    75. Yoosoon Chang & Steven N. Durlauf & Bo Hu & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility," Working Papers No 03/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    76. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2014. "Phillips curve shocks and real exchange rate fluctuations: SVAR evidence," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    77. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    78. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
    79. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    80. Debortoli, Davide & Kim, Jinill & Lindé, Jesper & Nunes, Ricardo, 2018. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?," Working Paper Series 366, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2019.
    81. Lars Svensson, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 403, Central Bank of Chile.
    82. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2019. "The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 95479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    84. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K van Dijk, 2024. "Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-074/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    85. Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP-2016-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    86. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
    87. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2011. "Determinacy, stock market dynamics and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 7-10, July.
    88. Matthias Neuenkirch & Pierre Siklos, 2011. "What’s in a Second Opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    89. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    90. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes of the Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy under Ambiguity," CARF F-Series CARF-F-295, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    91. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 271-305.
    92. Leighton Vaughan Williams & Chunping Liu & Hannah Gerrard, 2019. "How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2019/03, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    93. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    94. George A. Kahn, 2012. "Estimated rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q IV).
    95. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    96. Emanuele Ciola & Enrico Turco & Andrea Gurgone & Davide Bazzana & Sergio Vergalli & Francesco Menoncin, 2022. "Charging the macroeconomy with an energy sector: an agent-based model," Working Papers 2022.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    97. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf, 2012. "Monetary Policy Conditions in Spain Before and After the Changeover to the Euro: A Taylor Rule Based Assessment," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 8(01), pages 1-17, February.
    98. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    99. Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2010. "The global slack hypothesis," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep.
    100. Browne, Frank & Doran, David, 2007. "Addressing Puzzles in Monetary Dynamics," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 121-166, October.
    101. Christian Bauer & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "Forecast Uncertainty and the Taylor Rule," Research Papers in Economics 2015-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    102. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    103. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    104. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    105. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    106. Eduardo G. C. Amaral, 2024. "Smoothing the New-Keynesian Capital Puzzle," Working Papers Series 606, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    107. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 63-79, October.
    108. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Subjective Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1012, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    109. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    110. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    111. Boehm, Christoph E. & House, Christopher L., 2019. "Optimal Taylor rules when targets are uncertain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 274-286.
    112. Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2021. "Higher Order Interest-Smoothing, Time-Varying Inflation Target and the Prospect of Indeterminacy," Working Papers 21-10, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    113. Pelin Ilbas, 2007. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Working Paper 2008/21, Norges Bank, revised 12 Dec 2008.
    114. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," Working Papers 25-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Jan 2025.
    115. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2013. "Time Horizons and Smoothing in the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between the Standard GMM and Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 662-679, October.
    116. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    117. Eduardo Amaral & Torsten Ehlers & Ilhyock Shim & Alexandre Tombini, 2025. "Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty: insights from a survey of central banks in the Americas and beyond," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 7-30, Bank for International Settlements.
    118. Ester Faia & Eleni Iliopulos, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00497486, HAL.
    119. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    120. Jarod Coulter & Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García, 2022. "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 417, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    121. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    122. Best Gabriela & Kapinos Pavel, 2016. "Monetary policy and news shocks: are Taylor rules forward-looking?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 335-360, June.
    123. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2010. "Policy irreversibility and interest rate smoothing," MPRA Paper 19931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    124. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    125. Osama D. Sweidan, 2009. "Asymmetric central bank's preference and inflation rate in Jordan," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 232-245, October.
    126. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    127. Kohei Hasui & Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Tomohiro Sugo, 2019. "Irreversible monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 1906, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    128. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields," Working Papers 2012-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    129. William A. Branch, 2014. "Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 1035-1055, August.
    130. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    131. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2015. "The Simultaneity Bias of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: evidence using survey data for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1718-1725.
    132. Feunou Bruno & Fontaine Jean-Sébastien & Jin Jianjian, 2021. "What model for the target rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, February.
    133. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    134. Rubio, Margarita & Yao, Fang, 2025. "The Conduct of LTV Policy under Inflationary Shocks," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    135. Roc Armenter, 2014. "The Perils of Nominal Targets," 2014 Meeting Papers 428, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    136. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    137. Pengfei Jia & King Yoong Lim, 2021. "The stabilization role of police spending in a neo‐Keynesian economy with credit market imperfections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 103-125, February.
    138. Omer Bayar, 2022. "Reducing large datasets to improve the identification of estimated policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 113-140, July.
    139. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    140. Gaurav Saroliya, 2007. "The New Keynesian Business Cycle Achievements and Challenges," Discussion Papers 07/20, Department of Economics, University of York.
    141. Enrique Martínez García & Diego Vilán & Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples," Globalization Institute Working Papers 105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    142. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    143. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    144. Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "The informational effect of monetary policy and the case for policy commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    145. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will monetary policy become more of a science?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    146. Faia, Ester & Iliopulos, Eleni, 2011. "Financial openness, financial frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1976-1996.
    147. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    148. Enrique Martínez García, 2015. "The global component of local inflation: revisiting the empirical content of the global slack hypothesis with Bayesian methods," Globalization Institute Working Papers 225, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    149. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
    150. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    151. Carrillo, J.A., 2010. "How well does sticky information explain inflation and output inertia?," Research Memorandum 018, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    152. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2021. "Specification errors, nonlinearities, and structural breaks in the Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1243, March.
    153. Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    154. Osama D. Sweidan, 2011. "Monetary policy inertia: case of Jordan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 144-155, May.
    155. Nikola Mirkov & Gisle James Natvik, 2016. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 901-920, August.
    156. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    157. Bayar Omer, 2014. "Temporal aggregation and estimated monetary policy rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 553-577, January.
    158. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, July.
    159. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.
    160. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is Chinese monetary policy forward-looking?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    161. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper, 2009. "Monetary Shocks and Central Bank Liquidity with Credit Market Imperfections," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 120, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    162. Auray, Stéphane & Fève, Patrick, 2008. "On the observational (non)equivalence of money growth and interest rate rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 801-816, September.
    163. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "Infation Targeting matters! - Novel evidence from 'ex ante' Taylor rules in emerging markets," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    164. Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "What Drives Low and Stable Inflation?," Working Papers 25-02, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Feb 2025.
    165. Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?," Staff Working Papers 17-60, Bank of Canada.
    166. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    167. Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
    168. Yash P. Mehra & Brian D. Minton, 2007. "A Taylor rule and the Greenspan era," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 229-250.
    169. Olivier Coibion & Daniel Goldstein, 2012. "One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 401-431, March.
    170. Ferland, René & Gauthier, Geneviève & Lalancette, Simon, 2010. "A regime-switching term structure model with observable state variables," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-109, June.
    171. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    172. Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2014. "Technical note on "assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples"," Globalization Institute Working Papers 190, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    173. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    174. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    175. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Expectations, Taylor Rules, and Credibility – Evidence from Four Small Open European Economies with Independent Central Banks," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    176. Christian R. Proano, 2009. "Heterogenous Behavioral Expectations, FX Fluctuations and Dynamic Stability in a Stylized Two-Country Macroeconomic Model," IMK Working Paper 03-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    177. Podpiera, Jirí, 2008. "The role of ad hoc factors in policy rate settings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1003-1010, September.
    178. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    179. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    180. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.
    181. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "Do natural disasters affect monetary policy? A quasi-experiment of earthquakes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    182. Kano, Takashi, 2024. "Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    183. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    184. Feve, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Poilly, Celine, 2007. "Monetary policy dynamics in the Euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 97-102, July.
    185. Gregory Erin Givens, 2009. "Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion," Working Papers 200905, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    186. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2013. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Role of Supply Shocks Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79821, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    187. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Interest rate forecasts: a pathology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    188. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 11-96.
    189. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2021. "Interest Rate Rules, Rigidities and Inflation Risks in a Macro-Finance Model," MNB Working Papers 2021/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    190. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    191. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    192. Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2015. "Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?," NBER Working Papers 21569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    193. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    194. John B. Taylor, 2005. "Commentary : understanding the Greenspan standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 107-118.
    195. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may22.
    196. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    197. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Inflation targeting makes the difference: Novel evidence on inflation stabilization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1092-1105.
    198. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs, monetary policy, and stock price volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 79-125, March.
    199. David Cobham, 2006. "Using Taylor Rules to Assess the Relative Activism of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0602, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    200. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2015. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 126-154.
    201. Böhm, Jiří & Král, Petr & Saxa, Branislav, 2012. "The Czech National Bank's monetary policy in the media," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 341-357.
    202. Jonas E. Arias & Dario Caldara & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2014. "The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure," Working Papers 2014-13, FEDEA.
    203. Olalla, Myriam García & Gómez, Alejandro Ruiz, 2011. "Robust control and central banking behaviour," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1265-1278, May.
    204. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & Kateřina Šmídková, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
    205. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    206. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
    207. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "The Importance of Sound Monetary Policy: Some Lessons for Today from Canada’s Experience with Floating Exchange Rates since 1950," Working Papers 320, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    208. Onur Ince & Lei Jiang & Tanya Molodtsova, 2025. "Stock return predictability and Taylor rules," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 8-22, January.
    209. Jef Boeckx, 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions : A discrete choice approach," Working Paper Research 210, National Bank of Belgium.

  42. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2005. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Working Paper Series 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nason, James M. & Smith, Gregor W., 2007. "Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273616, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    6. Kwangyong Park, 2020. "The Excess Sensitivity of Long-term Interest rates and Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 2020-29, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    8. Anshul Kumar & Agnirup Sarkar & Bodhisattva Sengupta, 2024. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Impacts on the Indian Sovereign Bond Market: A VAR Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(2), pages 143-168, December.
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    11. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    13. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
    14. EL FAIZ, Zakaria & ZIANI, Manal, 2016. "Influence de la politique monétaire sur le taux long Quelques évidences empiriques, cas du Maroc [The impact of monetary on long rates : Some empirical evidence from Morocco]," MPRA Paper 72817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Barbedo, Claudio H.S. & de Melo, Eduardo F.L., 2012. "Joint dynamics of Brazilian interest rate yields and macro variables under a no-arbitrage restriction," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 364-376.
    18. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    19. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    21. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    22. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    24. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    25. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Hassan Shareef & Santhakumar Shijin, 2016. "Expectations Hypothesis and Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Evidence from Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 137-152, June.
    27. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Francesco Bianchi & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 363, Bank of England.
    29. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    30. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    31. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    32. Bharat Trehan, 2005. "Why has output become less volatile?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep16.
    33. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    34. Orphanides, Athanasios & Kim, Don H., 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    35. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    36. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 242, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    37. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
    38. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    40. Smith, Josephine M. & Taylor, John B., 2009. "The term structure of policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 907-917, October.
    41. Daniel Burren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a New Keynesian Model with Time-Varying Macro Volatility," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(2), pages 277-299, November.
    42. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    43. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    45. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    46. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    47. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    48. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2016. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, January.
    49. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    50. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    51. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    52. Nikola Mirkov, 2014. "International financial transmission of the Fed's monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 7-49, September.
    53. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    54. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
    55. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
    56. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    57. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    59. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    60. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    61. Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, 2020. "Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 95-139, June.
    62. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    63. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2014. "What does the Yield Curve imply about Investor Expectations?," Working Papers 14-02, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    64. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay & Taniya Ghosh, 2019. "Taylor rule implementation of the Optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    65. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 550, Bank of England.
    66. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    67. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    68. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    69. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    70. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    71. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    72. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
    73. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    75. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Hicham Bennouna & Lahcen Bounader, 2018. "Analyse de la transmission de la politique monétaire vers les taux souverains," Document de travail 2018-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    77. Yun, Jaeho, 2023. "International linkages of term structures: US and Korea Treasury bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    78. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 415-420, May.
    79. Caroline Jardet & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    80. Cordeiro, Werley & Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2025. "Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using macroeconomics expectations and time-varying volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    81. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    82. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    83. Werner, Thomas & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics," Working Paper Series 1045, European Central Bank.
    84. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    85. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    86. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.
    87. Sharon Kozicki & Gordon H. Sellon, 2005. "Longer-term perspectives on the yield curve and monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.

  43. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    4. Shu WU & Rende Li, 2025. "Estimating an affine term structure model of interest rates with correlated noise," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    7. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Roy Havemann & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11024, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2025. "Optimal Time Varying Parameters in Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: A Simulation Study on BRICS Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(4), pages 2081-2113, April.
    10. Tomasz Piotr Kostyra & Michał Rubaszek, 2020. "Forecasting the Yield Curve for Poland," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 103-117, December.
    11. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Josué Cortés Espada & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Alberto Torres, 2009. "An empirical analysis of the mexican term structure of interest rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2300-2313.
    13. Favero, Carlo A. & Giglio, Stefano, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5793, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
    15. Dauwe, Alexander & Moura, Marcelo L., 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Insper Working Papers wpe_233, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    16. Wali Ullah & Yoshihiko Tsukuda & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting of Government Bond Yields with Latent and Macroeconomic Factors: Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 287, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    17. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
    18. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Pilar Garcia Martinez & Laurent Kemoe, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco," IMF Working Papers 2016/103, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Marco Tronzano, 2018. "Does the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Hold in Korea after the Asian Financial Crisis? Some Empirical Evidence (1999-2017)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 191-226.
    23. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    24. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    25. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    26. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    27. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    28. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    29. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    30. Audrino, Francesco & Serwart, Jan, 2024. "Yield curve trading strategies exploiting sentiment data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    31. Esteban Méndez-Chacón & Diana Van Patten, 2022. "Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Toward Openness," Documentos de Trabajo 2204, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    32. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    33. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    34. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    35. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    37. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
    38. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    39. Anshul Kumar & Agnirup Sarkar & Bodhisattva Sengupta, 2024. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Impacts on the Indian Sovereign Bond Market: A VAR Approach," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(2), pages 143-168, December.
    40. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi & SUDO, Nao & HOGEN, Yoshihiko & TAKIZUKA, Yasutaka, 2023. "On the estimation of the natural yield curve," Discussion Paper Series 753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    41. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
    42. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    43. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    44. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    45. Li, Junye & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2024. "Risks and risk premia in the US Treasury market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    46. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
    48. Hong, Zhiwu & Wang, Zhenhan & Li, Xinda, 2024. "Foreign trade and China’s yield curve during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis based on an extended arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    49. Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
    50. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul Mussche, 2019. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Working Paper Series 2018-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    51. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2018. "Fitting and forecasting yield curves with a mixed-frequency affine model: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 145-154.
    52. Marco Tronzano, 2015. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India: Evidence from the Post-Liberalization Period (1996-2013). -La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India: una analisi empirica sul recente perio," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 275-295.
    53. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    54. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    55. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    56. Venetis, Ioannis & Ladas, Avgoustinos, 2022. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," MPRA Paper 115801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 395-422, March.
    58. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    59. Adriana Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    60. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    61. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    62. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    63. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "Global Yield Curves and Sovereign Bond Market Integration," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0902, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    64. Jamie L. Cross & Lennart Hoogerheide & Paul Labonne & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance," Working Papers No 11/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    65. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    66. Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Vo, Xuan vinh, 2022. "COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    67. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    68. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    69. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    70. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2020. "Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Regressions using Scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," Papers 2005.03906, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    71. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 73-87.
    72. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
    73. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
    74. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    75. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    76. Xu, Xiu & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2016. "Dynamic credit default swaps curves in a network topology," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-059, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    77. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2013. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP52/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    78. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 251-277, December.
    79. Edward N Gamber & Julie K Smith, 2020. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 407-424.
    80. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2012. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for approximate factor models of high dimension," MPRA Paper 42099, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2012.
    81. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Enrique Sentana, 2014. "A Spectral EM Algorithm for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2014_1411, CEMFI.
    82. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    83. Gijsbert Suren & Guilherme Moura, 2012. "Heteroskedastic Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2884-2898.
    84. Rangan Gupta & Marian Risse & David A. Volkman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Term Spread and Pattern Changes in Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test Using Over 250 Years of Data," Working Papers 201755, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    85. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2018_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    86. Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2012. "Skewness Risk and Bond Prices," Cahiers de recherche 17-2012, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    87. Pakasa Bary & Yoga Affandi & Berry A. Harahap & Fenty T. Suryani, 2020. "Natural Yield Curve: The Case of Indonesia," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 14(2), June.
    88. Cavaca, Igor Bastos & Meurer, Roberto, 2021. "International monetary policy spillovers: Linkages between U.S. and South American yield curves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 737-754.
    89. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    90. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
    91. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
    92. Bellini, Tiziano, 2013. "Integrated bank risk modeling: A bottom-up statistical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 385-398.
    93. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    94. Leite, André Luís & Filho, Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "Forecasting the yield curve: A statistical model with market survey data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 108-112, March.
    95. Carlo Altavilla & Riccardo Costantini & Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers 20/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    96. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    97. Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    98. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    99. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    100. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 2, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    101. Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Ying He, 2011. "An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2011/247, International Monetary Fund.
    102. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    103. Alexander Tsyplakov, 2011. "An introduction to state space modeling (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 9, pages 1-24, July.
    104. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    105. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    106. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Sögner, Leopold, 2020. "GMM estimation of affine term structure models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 2-15.
    107. Jan Hanousek & Evžen KoÄ enda & Petr ZemÄ Ã­k, 2008. "Bond Market Emergence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(2), pages 141-168, August.
    108. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    109. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    110. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    111. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    112. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    113. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    114. Marco Tronzano, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 401-421.
    115. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    116. Donati, Paola & Donati, Francesco, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank.
    117. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    118. Ronald Henry Lange, 2017. "Macroeconomic Switching Regimes and Monetary Policy in Canada," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 17-31, July.
    119. Massimo Guidolin & Serena Ionta, 2025. "Forecasting Asset Returns Using Nelson–Siegel Factors Estimated from the US Yield Curve," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-36, April.
    120. Olena Chyruk & Luca Benzoni & Andrea Ajello, 2012. "Core and `Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 922, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    121. Grasso, Adriana & Natoli, Filippo, 2018. "Consumption volatility risk and the inversion of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2141, European Central Bank.
    122. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2006. "A Factor Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Risk Premium Estimation for Latvia's Money Market," Working Papers 2006/01, Latvijas Banka.
    123. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    124. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    125. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2007. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    126. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Javier Sosvilla Rivero, 2013. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-19, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    127. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    128. Leo Krippner, 2010. "Connecting the dots: a yield curve perspective on New Zealand’s interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, September.
    129. Memmel, Christoph & Heckmann, Lotta, 2025. "Modeling the term structure," Discussion Papers 07/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    130. Ghent, Andra, 2007. "Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures," MPRA Paper 1708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    131. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    132. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2018. "The Interaction between Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Factors," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    133. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 575-594.
    134. Richard Startz & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1613-1640, December.
    135. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    136. Ken Nyholm, 2007. "A New Approach to Predicting Recessions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(1), pages 27-42, February.
    137. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    138. Devin Reilly & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2010. "Changes in monetary policy and the variation in interest rate changes across credit markets," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(2Q), pages 201-229.
    139. Meredith J. Beechey, 2006. "A closer look at the sensitivity puzzle: the sensitivity of expected future short rates and term premia to macroeconomic news," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    140. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    141. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    142. Vereda, Luciano & Lopes, Hélio & Fukuda, Regina, 2008. "Estimating VAR models for the term structure of interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 548-559, April.
    143. Francesco Audrino, 2012. "What Drives Short Rate Dynamics? A Functional Gradient Descent Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 315-335, March.
    144. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2008. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-108/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    145. Dmitry Fedorov & Timur Magzhanov & Philipp Kartaev, 2025. "Estimation and Forecasting of Russian Money Market Yield Curves," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(2), pages 36-64, June.
    146. Vieira, Fausto & Fernandes, Marcelo & Chague, Fernando, 2017. "Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using forward-looking variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 121-131.
    147. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    148. Knezevic, David & Nordström, Martin & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "The Relation between Municipal and Government Bond Yields in an Era of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2019:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    149. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    150. Lajos Horváth & Piotr Kokoszka & Jeremy VanderDoes & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Inference in functional factor models with applications to yield curves," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 872-894, November.
    151. Eder, Armin & Keiler, Sebastian & Pichl, Hannes, 2013. "Interest rate risk and the Swiss solvency test," Discussion Papers 41/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    152. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Aharon, David Y., 2022. "Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 275-288.
    153. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    154. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    155. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "International Effects of Euro Area Forward Guidance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1066-1110, October.
    156. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    157. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    158. Kei Imakubo & Haruki Kojima & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "The natural yield curve: its concept and measurement," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    159. Sokhanvar, Amin & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Comparative analysis of responses of risky and safe haven assets to stock market risk before and after the yield curve inversions in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    160. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2008. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: an economic value and capital adequacy perspective," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 339, Bank of England.
    161. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    162. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
    163. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    164. Choi, Ahjin & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2023. "Modeling the time-varying dynamic term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    165. Lorenčič Eva, 2016. "Testing the Performance of Cubic Splines and Nelson-Siegel Model for Estimating the Zero-coupon Yield Curve," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 42-50, June.
    166. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 242, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    167. Flavio Angelini & Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi, 2025. "Modeling Euro Area Benchmark Rates After the End of LIBOR," CEIS Research Paper 613, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 07 Oct 2025.
    168. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
    169. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
    170. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," Working Papers 335, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    171. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    172. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    173. Hana Hejlová & Zlatuše Komárková & Marek Rusnák, 2020. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(3), pages 251-273.
    174. David Bolder & Yuliya Romanyuk, 2008. "Combining Canadian Interest-Rate Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 08-34, Bank of Canada.
    175. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    176. Kang, Kyu Ho, 2015. "The predictive density simulation of the yield curve with a zero lower bound," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-66.
    177. Tomasz P. Kostyra, 2022. "Yield Curve Modelling with the Nelson-Siegel Method for Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 44-56.
    178. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO.
    179. Nagy, Krisztina, 2020. "Term structure estimation with missing data: Application for emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 347-360.
    180. Lange, Ronald H., 2017. "The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    181. Siyu Bie & Francis X. Diebold & Jingyu He & Junye Li, 2024. "Machine Learning and the Yield Curve: Tree-Based Macroeconomic Regime Switching," Papers 2408.12863, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    182. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    183. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    184. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    185. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    186. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    187. Vieira, Fausto José Araújo & Chague, Fernando Daniel & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2017. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Textos para discussão 445, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    188. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    189. Mr. Nathan Porter & Mr. Nuno Cassola, 2011. "Understanding Chinese Bond Yields and their Role in Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/225, International Monetary Fund.
    190. Christos Tzomakas, 2026. "Monetary policy transmission and the yield curve: the role of external market factors against the backdrop of Brexit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 1-42, January.
    191. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2025. "The inflationary impact of oil price shock in Korea: The role of inflation expectations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    192. Sanjay Singh & Neeraj Hatekar, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and evolution of term structure of interest rate: A dynamic latent factor approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 245-262, December.
    193. Mikhail Makushkin & Victor Lapshin, 2023. "Dynamic Nelson–Siegel model for market risk estimation of bonds: Practical implementation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 5-27.
    194. Djuranovik, Leslie, 2014. "The Indonesian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    195. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Aharon, David Y., 2021. "The relationship between yield curve components and equity sectorial indices: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    196. Jae Young Jang & Erdal Atukeren, 2019. "Sustainable Local Currency Debt: An Analysis of Foreigners’ Korea Treasury Bonds Investments Using a LA-VARX Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-23, June.
    197. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
    198. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 0000. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Sep 2010.
    199. Casoli, Chiara & Lucchetti, Riccardo, 2026. "A rotated Dynamic Factor Model for the yield curve: squeezing out information when it matters," FEEM Working Papers 388985, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    200. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    201. Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
    202. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    203. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Kang, Kyu Ho & Kim, Ki Jeong, 2016. "Can credit spreads help predict a yield curve?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 39-61.
    204. Connolly, Robert & Dubofsky, David & Stivers, Chris, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the distant forward-rate slope," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 140-161.
    205. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    206. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006. "High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    207. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    208. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    209. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Liesenfeld, Roman & Moura, Guilherme Valle & Oglend, Atle, 2022. "Analyzing Commodity Futures Using Factor State-Space Models with Wishart Stochastic Volatility," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 105-127.
    210. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2016. "What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk: Information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    211. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    212. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    213. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2006. "Extracting inflation expectations from the term structure: the Fisher equation in a multivariate SDF framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 261-277.
    214. C. N. V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2007. "On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads," Working Papers (Old Series) 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    215. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    216. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2019. "High-frequency and heteroskedasticity identification in multicountry models: Revisiting spillovers of monetary shocks," Papers 1912.03158, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    217. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    218. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    219. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    220. Linlin Niu & Haoran Bai & Zhiwu Hong, 2026. "Geopolitical Risks, Inflation Pressure, and the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve," Working Papers 2025-09-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    221. Kostyra, Tomasz P., . "Modelowanie krzywej dochodowości dla Polski z wykorzystaniem metody Nelsona-Siegla," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2022(2).
    222. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates," Working Papers 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    223. Taeyoung Doh, 2009. "Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model," Research Working Paper RWP 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    224. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    225. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
    226. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    227. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    228. Mustapha Olalekan Ojo & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2020. "A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2333-2351, May.
    229. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    230. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    231. Daniel Borup & Jorge Wolfgang Hansen & Benjamin Dybro Liengaard & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2023. "Quantifying investor narratives and their role during COVID‐19," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 512-532, June.
    232. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Potential Growth and Natural Yield Curve in Japan," Working Papers halshs-02091035, HAL.
    233. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    234. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
    235. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    236. Asgharian, Hossein & Liu, Lu & Larsson, Marcus, 2015. "Cross-Border Asset Holdings and Comovements in Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Papers 2015:30, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    237. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5259, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    238. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    239. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    240. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 297-311, June.
    241. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Posch, Olaf & van der Wel, Michel, 2016. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models using mixed frequency macro and financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 116-137.
    242. Exterkate, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    243. Efthymios Argyropoulos & Nikolaos Elias & Dimitris Smyrnakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Can country-specific interest rate factors explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 252-269, April.
    244. César Ulate-Sancho & Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2022. "A Sovereign Par Yield Curve in Dollars: A Dynamic Approach," Notas Técnicas 2206, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    245. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    246. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Water, 2012. "The Financial Market Impact of UK Quantitative Easing," Working Papers 696, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    247. Marco Tronzano, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
    248. Tvedt, Jostein, 2025. "A predictive term-spread model in the age of inflation targeting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    249. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "AnalysingthespillovereffectsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBanksbondpurchaseprogramme," Working Papers 11039, South African Reserve Bank.
    250. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling and Forecasting of Government Bond Yields," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 535-560, December.
    251. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    252. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, Jose Valentim Machado, 2011. "Identification of Gaussian Term Structure Models with Observable Factors," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(2), December.
    253. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
    254. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
    255. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets," Papers 1806.03647, arXiv.org.
    256. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    257. Peng Huang & C. James Hueng, 2009. "Interest-rate risk factor and stock returns: a time-varying factor-loadings model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(22), pages 1813-1824.
    258. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2009. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with an Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2009-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    259. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    260. Favero, Carlo A. & Sala, Luca & Niu, Linlin, 2007. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-Arbitrage Restrictions vs Large Information Set," CEPR Discussion Papers 6206, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    261. Qadan, Mahmoud & David, Or & Snunu, Iyad & Shuval, Kerem, 2024. "The VIX's term structure of individual active stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    262. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
    263. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    264. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    265. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    266. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Ritchken, Peter H. & Thomson, James B., 2010. "Predicting credit spreads," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 529-563, October.
    267. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    268. Bautista, Rafaél & Riáscos, Álvaro & Suárez, Nicolás, 2007. "La aplicación de un modelo de factores a las curvas de rendimiento del mercado de deuda pública colombiano," Galeras. Working Papers Series 014, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
    269. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    270. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mencía, Javier, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-253, March.
    271. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    272. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    273. Benoit Perron & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2007. "An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 383-400.
    274. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    275. Emmanouil Karimalis & Ioannis Kosmidis & Gareth Peters, 2017. "Multi yield curve stress-testing framework incorporating temporal and cross tenor structural dependencies," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 655, Bank of England.
    276. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
    277. Dana Kiseľáková & Paulina Filip & Erika Onuferová & Tomáš Valentiny, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Sustainable Economic and Financial Development in the Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    278. Lelo de Larrea Alejandra, 2020. "Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model," Working Papers 2020-01, Banco de México.
    279. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
    280. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    281. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    282. Ken Nyholm & Riccardo Rebonato, 2008. "Long-horizon yield curve projections: comparison of semi-parametric and parametric approaches," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1597-1611.
    283. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    284. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    285. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.
    286. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    287. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    288. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    289. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    290. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    291. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2018. "A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-150.
    292. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    293. Andreas Reschreiter, 2010. "Inflation And The Mean‐Reverting Level Of The Short Rate," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(1), pages 76-91, January.
    294. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Time-varying variance decomposition of macro-finance term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    295. C Castro-Iragorri & J RamÔøΩrez, 2021. "Forecasting Dynamic Term Structure Models with Autoencoders," Documentos de Trabajo 19431, Universidad del Rosario.
    296. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    297. Piero C. Kauffmann & Hellinton H. Takada & Ana T. Terada & Julio M. Stern, 2022. "Learning Forecast-Efficient Yield Curve Factor Decompositions with Neural Networks," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, March.
    298. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    299. Esteban Sánchez-Gómez, 2022. "Job Vacancy Index for Costa Rica 2010 - 2021," Notas Técnicas 2202, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    300. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    301. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
    302. Kim, Meeroo & Hong, Jong Soo, 2026. "The effects of increased Korea Treasury Bond issuance on the yield curve," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 48(2), pages 1-35.
    303. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    304. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    305. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
    306. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Mattos, Fabio, 2016. "The Information Content in the Term Structure of Commodity Prices," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285850, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    307. Boeing-Reicher, Claire A. & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Estimating the effects of the "flight to quality", with an application to German bond yields and interest payments," Kiel Working Papers 2086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    308. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    309. Wong, Edwin & Lucia, Kathlyn & Price, Stephanie & Startz, Richard, 2011. "The changing relation between the Canadian and U.S. yield curves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 965-981, October.
    310. Kessler, Stephan & Scherer, Bernd, 2009. "Varying risk premia in international bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1361-1375, August.
    311. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    312. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
    313. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    314. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    315. Bernhard O. Ishioro, 2014. "The Dynamics Of Exchange Rate Expectations Formation: The Nigerian Perspective," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 23(2), pages 431-460, december.
    316. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "Supervision in Factor Models Using a Large Number of Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2015-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    317. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    318. Zhang, Tao & Tang, Ke & Liu, Taoxiong & Jiang, Tingfeng, 2025. "High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    319. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato.
    320. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
    321. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    322. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    323. Harrathi Nizar & Alhoshan Hamed M., 2020. "Validity of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.
    324. Thomas Dimpfl & Tobias Langen, 2019. "How Unemployment Affects Bond Prices: A Mixed Frequency Google Nowcasting Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 551-573, August.
    325. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    326. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    327. João Caldeira & Guilherme Moura & André Santos, 2015. "Measuring Risk in Fixed Income Portfolios using Yield Curve Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 65-82, June.
    328. Antonios K. Alexandridis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Ioannis Souropanis, 2024. "Forecasting exchange rates: An iterated combination constrained predictor approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 983-1017, July.
    329. Leo Krippner & Michelle Lewis, 2018. "Real-time forecasting with macro-finance models in the presence of a zero lower bound," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    330. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    331. Lu, Biao & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 872-884, September.
    332. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    333. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.
    334. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    335. Nyholm, Ken, 2015. "A rotated Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro-financial applications," Working Paper Series 1851, European Central Bank.
    336. Guljanov, Gaygysyz & Mutschler, Willi & Trede, Mark, 2022. "Pruned Skewed Kalman Filter and Smoother: With Application to the Yield Curve," Dynare Working Papers 78, CEPREMAP.
    337. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    338. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    339. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    340. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Functional Shocks to Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates and Their Macroeconomic Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10656, CESifo.
    341. Giese, Julia V., 2008. "Level, Slope, Curvature: Characterising the Yield Curve in a Cointegrated VAR Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-20.
    342. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics.
    343. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    344. Sónia Costa & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2006. "The Forward Premium of Euro Interest Rates," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    345. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    346. Victor Curtis Lartey & Yao Li, 2018. "Zero-Coupon and Forward Yield Curves for Government of Ghana Bonds," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(3), pages 21582440188, September.
    347. Enzo Cassino, 2012. "Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    348. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    349. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2014. "Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 546-572, March.
    350. Wei-Choun Yu & Donald M. Salyards, 2009. "Parsimonious modeling and forecasting of corporate yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 73-88.
    351. Lauren Stagnol, 2019. "Extracting global factors from local yield curves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 341-350, September.
    352. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    353. Bernaschi, Massimo & Tacconi, Elisa & Vergni, Davide, 2008. "A parametric study of the term structure dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1264-1272.
    354. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mauricio Calani, 2018. "Pension Funds and the Yield Curve: The Role of Preference for Maturity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 821, Central Bank of Chile.
    355. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Working Paper 2009/16, Norges Bank.
    356. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    357. Apostolou, Barbara & Apostolou, Nicholas G. & Dorminey, Jack W., 2014. "The association of departures from spending rate equilibrium to municipal borrowing cost," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-8.
    358. Wolfgang Drobetz & Tim Richter & Martin Wambach, 2012. "Dynamics of time-varying volatility in the dry bulk and tanker freight markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1367-1384, August.
    359. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "Forecasting the Yield Curve Using Priors from No Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 612, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    360. Albert K. Tsui & Junxiang Wu & Zhaoyong Zhang & Zhongxi Zheng, 2023. "Forecasting term structure of the Japanese bond yields in the presence of a liquidity trap," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1205-1227, August.
    361. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
    362. Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2011. "Forecasting the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates using a Macroeconomic Smooth Dynamic Factor Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-063/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    363. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
    364. Erhard RESCHENHOFER & Thomas STARK, 2019. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Dynamic Factors," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 101-113, March.
    365. Boril Šopov & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Yield Curve Dynamics: Regional Common Factor Model," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 140-156.
    366. Ricardo Gimeno & Eva Ortega, 2016. "The evolution of inflation expectations in euro area markets," Working Papers 1627, Banco de España.
    367. Aleš Bulíř & Jan Vlček, 2023. "Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 93-112, February.
    368. David Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2008. "Measuring Central Bank Communication:," 2008 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    369. Lars Beckmann & Jörn Debener & Johannes Kriebel, 2023. "Understanding the determinants of bond excess returns using explainable AI," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1553-1590, November.
    370. Lengwiler, Yvan & Lenz, Carlos, 2010. "Intelligible factors for the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 481-491, August.
    371. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2018. "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-265.
    372. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2010. "Modeling and Forecasting Short-term Interest Rates: The Benefits of Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging," Textos para discussão 570, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    373. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon & Wenying Yao & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," Working Papers No 06/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    374. Takamizawa, Hideyuki & 高見澤, 秀幸, 2015. "Impact of No-arbitrage on Interest Rate Dynamics," Working Paper Series G-1-5, Hitotsubashi University Center for Financial Research.
    375. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    376. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Holly, Sean, 2010. "Macroeconomic models and the yield curve: An assessment of the fit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1343-1358, August.
    377. Caio Almeida & Axel Simonsen & José Valentim Vicente, 2012. "Forecasting Bond Yields with Segmented Term Structure Models," Working Papers Series 288, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    378. SYED, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2021. "Heterogeneous consumers in the Euro-Area, facing homogeneous monetary policy: Tale of two large economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    379. Junko Koeda & Yosuke Kimura, 2021. "Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present," Working Papers e163, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    380. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2012. "Die Zinslast des Bundes in der Schuldenkrise: Wie lukrativ ist der 'sichere Hafen'?," Kiel Working Papers 1780, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    381. Sang-Heon Lee, 2025. "An Alternative Approach for Determining the Time-Varying Decay Parameter of the Nelson-Siegel Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2965-2990, May.
    382. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    383. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna & Bhaduri, Saumitra, 2016. "Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 118-139.
    384. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    385. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    386. Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
    387. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    388. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    389. Jhonny Aguilar-Madrigal & Mauricio Vega-Araya & Luis Rivera, 2025. "Ecosystem Services Accounting in Costa Rica: Regulation, Provision, and Cultural Services," Notas Técnicas 2501, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    390. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    391. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    392. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
    393. Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2022. "Stock market in the age of COVID19: Mere acclimatization or Stockholm syndrome?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    394. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    395. Viacheslav Kramkov & Andrey Maksimov, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.
    396. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
    397. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    398. Sensarma, Rudra & Bhattacharyya, Indranil, 2015. "Measuring monetary policy and its impact on the bond market of an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 81067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    399. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    400. Zlatuse Komarkova & Marek Rusnak & Hana Hejlova, 2016. "The Relationship between Liquidity Risk and Credit Risk in The CNB's Liquidity Stress Tests," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2015/2016, chapter 0, pages 127-136, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    401. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
    402. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    403. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis, 2023. "Recessions and flattening of the yield curve (1960–2021): A two-way road under a regime switching approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 8-20.
    404. Cameron Fen & Samir Undavia, 2022. "Improving Macroeconomic Model Validity and Forecasting Performance with Pooled Country Data using Structural, Reduced Form, and Neural Network Model," Papers 2203.06540, arXiv.org.
    405. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    406. Daniel R. Kowal & David S. Matteson & David Ruppert, 2019. "Functional Autoregression for Sparsely Sampled Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 97-109, January.
    407. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    408. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    409. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 23480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    410. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
    411. Qian, Hang, 2015. "Inequality Constrained State Space Models," MPRA Paper 66447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    412. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "Analysing the spillover effects of the South African Reserve Banks bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11025, South African Reserve Bank.
    413. Marco Shinobu Matsumura & Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models," Working Papers Series 223, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    414. Linlin Niu, 2013. "An Affine Term Structure Model with Auxiliary Stochastic Volatility-Covolatility," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    415. Gimeno, Ricardo & Nave, Juan M., 2009. "A genetic algorithm estimation of the term structure of interest rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2236-2250, April.
    416. María-Dolores, Ramon & Vázquez, Jesús & Londoño, Juan M., 2009. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 4699, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
    417. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    418. Ken Nyholm, 2018. "A Rotated Dynamic Nelson†Siegel Model," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 113-124, February.
    419. Bulíř, Aleš & Vlček, Jan, 2021. "Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 95-108.
    420. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    421. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    422. Yin, Weiwei & Li, Junye, 2014. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate dynamics: A no-arbitrage macro-finance approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
    423. Yoshiyuki Suimon & Hiroki Sakaji & Kiyoshi Izumi & Hiroyasu Matsushima, 2020. "Autoencoder-Based Three-Factor Model for the Yield Curve of Japanese Government Bonds and a Trading Strategy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
    424. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2020. "The common and speci fic components of inflation expectation across European countries," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    425. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
    426. Adriana Corrales-Quesada & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2024. "Stress Testing of the Central Bank of Costa Rica: Risk Assessment of Fixed-Income Instruments," Notas Técnicas 2401, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    427. Damián Romero & Luis Ceballos, 2014. "The Yield Curve Information Under Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 732, Central Bank of Chile.
    428. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    429. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    430. Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2011. "Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 579-591, April.
    431. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez & César Ulate-Sancho, 2022. "A Sovereign Par Yield Curve in Dollars: A Dynamic Approach," Notas Técnicas 2210, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    432. Enrique Martínez García & Yixiang Zhang, 2024. "The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound," Globalization Institute Working Papers 430, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    433. Sensarma, Rudra & Bhattacharyya, Indranil, 2016. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-602.
    434. Bahaa Aly, Tarek, 2025. "Nonlinear Macroeconomic Granger Causality: An ANN Input Occlusion Approach on MSSA-Denoised Data," MPRA Paper 125453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    435. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    436. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
    437. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    438. Marco Morales, 2010. "The real yield curve and macroeconomic factors in the Chilean economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3533-3545.
    439. Alexander Dauwe & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Business and Economics Working Papers 135, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    440. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    441. Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," BCAM Working Papers 1403, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    442. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    443. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    444. Huseyin Ozturk, 2020. "The shape of sovereign yield curve in an emerging economy: Do macroeconomic or external factors matter?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 83-112, February.
    445. Bekker, Paul A., 2017. "Interpretable Parsimonious Arbitrage-free Modeling of the Yield Curve," Research Report 17009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    446. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
    447. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Threat of fiscal dominance?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65.
    448. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure: An arbitrage-free approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    449. Heidorn, Thomas & Mokinski, Frieder & Rühl, Christoph & Schmaltz, Christian, 2015. "The impact of fundamental and financial traders on the term structure of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 276-287.
    450. Joao Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2011. "Efficient Interest Ratecurve Estimation And Forecasting In Brazil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 133, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    451. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    452. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    453. Gordon H. Dash & Nina Kajiji & Domenic Vonella, 2018. "The role of supervised learning in the decision process to fair trade US municipal debt," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 139-168, June.
    454. Rui Chen & Jiri Svec & Maurice Peat, 2016. "Forecasting the Government Bond Term Structure in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 99-111, June.
    455. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    456. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy: Asset Allocation Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2012/078, International Monetary Fund.
    457. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2012. "Measuring the natural yield curve," NBP Working Papers 108, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    458. Jiawei Du & Yi Hong, 2025. "Ultimate Forward Rate Prediction and its Application to Bond Yield Forecasting: A Machine Learning Perspective," Papers 2601.00011, arXiv.org.
    459. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    460. Chen, S. & Härdle, W.K. & Wang, W., 2016. "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," Working Papers 16/06, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    461. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    462. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7796, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    463. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    464. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    465. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2019. "Efficient Dynamic Yield Curve Estimation in Emerging Financial Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    466. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A Tractable Framework for Zero-Lower-Bound Gaussian Term Structure Models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    467. Geert Mesters & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman, 2014. "A Dynamic Yield Curve Model with Stochastic Volatility and Non-Gaussian Interactions: An Empirical Study of Non-standard Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-071/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    468. Cordeiro, Werley & Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2025. "Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using macroeconomics expectations and time-varying volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    469. Audrino, Francesco & Offner, Eric A., 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    470. Chen, Jiazi & Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin, 2025. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints: The role of the functional demographic age distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 153-174.
    471. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    472. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
    473. Emrah Ahi & Vedat Akgiray & Emrah Sener, 2018. "Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 23-49, January.
    474. Elyas Elyasiani & Iftekhar Hasan & Elena Kalotychou & Panos K. Pouliasis & Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2020. "Banks’ equity performance and the term structure of interest rates," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 43-64, May.
    475. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    476. Chi-Sang Tam & Ip-Wing Yu, 2008. "Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 82-91.
    477. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2015. "Prediction of Term Structure with Potentially Misspecified Macro-Finance Models near the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 85709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    478. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    479. Annika Camehl & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2023. "Time-Varying Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Papers 2311.05883, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    480. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong, 2005. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," 2005 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    481. Marius Acatrinei, 2017. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and latent factor of the EU yield curve," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 11, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    482. Stona, Filipe & Caldeira, João F., 2019. "Do U.S. factors impact the Brazilian yield curve? Evidence from a dynamic factor model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 76-89.
    483. Jae Young Jang & Min Jae Park, 2019. "A Study on Global Investors’ Criteria for Investment in the Local Currency Bond Markets Using AHP Methods: The Case of the Republic of Korea," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, October.
    484. Scott Mixon & Tugkan Tuzun, 2018. "Price Pressure and Price Discovery in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    485. Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
    486. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    487. Almeida, Caio & Faria, Adriano, 2014. "Forecasting the Brazilian Term Structure Using Macroeconomic Factors," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(1), March.
    488. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    489. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    490. Martin M. Andreasen, 2019. "Explaining Bond Return Predictability in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    491. Francesca Biagini & Alessandro Gnoatto & Maximilian Hartel, 2013. "Affine HJM Framework on $S_{d}^{+}$ and Long-Term Yield," Papers 1311.0688, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    492. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & M. Hasan Yilmaz, 2021. "Do local and global factors impact the emerging markets' sovereign yield curves? Evidence from a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1214-1229, November.
    493. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    494. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.
    495. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.
    496. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
    497. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    498. Nagano, Teppei & Baba, Naohiko, 2008. "Extracting market expectations from yield curves augmented by money market interest rates: the case of Japan," Working Paper Series 980, European Central Bank.
    499. Maria Cristina Recchioni & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2016. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: The effect of negative interest rates," Working Papers 2016/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    500. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.
    501. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    502. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The transmission channels between the financial and real sectors: a critical survey of the literature," BCBS Working Papers 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    503. Krishna Prasanna & Subramaniam Sowmya, 2017. "Yield curve in India and its interactions with the US bond market," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 353-375, April.
    504. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  44. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Woodford, Michael, 2005. "Comment on: "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 881-887, July.
    2. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
    4. Hess T. Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Kui-Wai Li, 2017. "Is there an ‘interest rate – speculation’ relationship? Evidence from G7 in the pre- and post-2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(21), pages 2041-2059, May.
    6. Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    7. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2010. "Short and long interest rate targets," Working Papers 680, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    9. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    10. Morris, Stephen D., 2020. "Is the Taylor principle still valid when rates are low?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia, 2012. "Bonds Transaction Services and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Implications for Equilibrium Determinacy," Working Papers wp821, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Kedan, Danielle & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "Operational targets and the yield curve: The euro area and Switzerland," Economic Letters 04/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    14. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
    15. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2008. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-92, March.
    16. Massimiliano Marzo & Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Equilibrium Selection in a Cashless Economy with Transaction Frictions in the Bond Market," Working Paper series 28_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Renzhi, Nuobu & Beirne, John, 2023. "Corporate market power and monetary policy transmission in Asia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Features of Interest Rate Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime [Особенности Процентной Политики При Режиме Таргетирования Инфляции]," Working Papers 031812, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Hoelle Matthew, 2018. "Optimal Term Structure in a Monetary Economy with Incomplete Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Central Banks Going Long," Discussion Papers 1810, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    22. YUAN, Chunming & CHEN, Ruo, 2015. "Policy transmissions, external imbalances, and their impacts: Cross-country evidence from BRICS," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-24.
    23. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of rational expectations: A serial correlation extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 13, pages 159-179, May.
    24. Olmo, Jose & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy during crisis episodes: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 155-166.
    25. Jones, Callum & Kulish, Mariano, 2013. "Long-term interest rates, risk premia and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2547-2561.
    26. Bennett T. McCallum, 2011. "Should Central Banks Raise their Inflation Targets? Some Relevant Issues," NBER Working Papers 17005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. John C. Williams, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 367-375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  45. Francis X. Diebold, & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Cited by:

    1. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    2. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. David Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
    4. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    6. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato.
    7. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Kanjilal, Kakali, 2013. "Factors causing movements of yield curve in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 739-751.
    10. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.

  46. Francis X. Diebold, & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

    Cited by:

    1. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
    2. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. David Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
    4. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    6. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato.
    7. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Kanjilal, Kakali, 2013. "Factors causing movements of yield curve in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 739-751.
    10. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.

  47. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2003. "Macroeconomics and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 206, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.
    3. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve," Working Papers 0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
    5. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," Working Papers 335, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Andre Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2012. "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2012-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2006. "A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets," Working Paper Series 641, European Central Bank.
    13. Banerjee, A. & Bystrov, V. & Mizen, P., 2012. "How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies," Working papers 361, Banque de France.

  48. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," Working Paper Series 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Buncic, Daniel & Lentner, Philipp, 2016. "The term structure of interest rates in an estimated New Keynesian policy model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-150.
    7. Josué Cortés Espada & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Alberto Torres, 2009. "An empirical analysis of the mexican term structure of interest rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2300-2313.
    8. Backus, David & Zin, Stanley E. & Chernov, Mikhail & Zviadadze, Irina, 2013. "Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Casper de Vries & Xuedong Wang, 2015. "Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-066/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Christoph Berninger & Almond Stöcker & David Rügamer, 2022. "A Bayesian time‐varying autoregressive model for improved short‐term and long‐term prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 181-200, January.
    11. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    13. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard & Ligthart, Jenny, 2013. "On the impact of the global financial crisis on the euro area," Research Report 13011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    15. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    19. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Marco S. Matsumura, 2015. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 0173, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    21. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    22. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
    25. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Market beliefs about the UK monetary policy life-off horizon: a no-arbitrage shadow rate term structure model approach," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 541, Bank of England.
    26. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    27. Vladimir Borgy & Thomas Laubach & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    28. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model," Working Paper Series 2008-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Daniel, Betty C., 2014. "The Inflation Target at the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 66096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    31. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 15270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
    33. Li, Luyang & Yin, Ximing & Yu, Deshui, 2025. "On the time-varying relation between monetary policy uncertainty and bond risk premia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    34. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski & Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos & Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2024. "Sequential Learning and Economic Benefits from Dynamic Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(4), pages 2236-2254, April.
    36. Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
    37. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2018. "Fitting and forecasting yield curves with a mixed-frequency affine model: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 145-154.
    39. Junko Koeda, 2011. "Japanese Yield Curves In and Out of a Zero Rate Environmnet: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-254, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2011.
    40. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
    41. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
    42. Robert Brooks & Brandon N. Cline & Pavel Teterin & Yu You, 2022. "The information in global interest rate futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1135-1166, June.
    43. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    44. Ann Xing, Bingxin & Feunou, Bruno & Nongni-Donfack, Morvan & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2024. "U.S. macroeconomic news and low-frequency changes in bond yields in Canada, Sweden and the U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    45. Edda Claus, Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Can monetary policy surprise the market?," LCERPA Working Papers 0083, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Jan 2015.
    46. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    47. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
    48. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    49. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    50. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & CHALLE, Edouard, 2011. "Stock Prices and Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8387, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    52. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan José & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1141, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    53. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    54. Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2012. "Skewness Risk and Bond Prices," Cahiers de recherche 17-2012, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    55. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    56. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 18840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "What we do and don't know about the term premium," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul20.
    58. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
    59. Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2009. "Time-Variation in Term Permia: International Survey-Based Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-02, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    60. Jean-Paul Renne, 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    61. Carlo Altavilla & Riccardo Costantini & Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers 20/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    62. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    63. Iryna Kaminska, 2013. "A No-Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the UK Yield Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 680-704, October.
    64. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    65. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates of a single currency: The Chinese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 558-576.
    66. Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David & Hördahl, Peter, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 405, European Central Bank.
    67. Fricke, Christoph, 2012. "Expected and unexpected bond excess returns: Macroeconomic and market microstructure effects," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-493, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    68. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    69. Cho, Sungjun, 2013. "New return anomalies and new-Keynesian ICAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-106.
    70. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback," Research Papers in Economics 2009:14, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    71. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    72. Taeyoung Doh, 2007. "What does the yield curve tell us about the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target?," Research Working Paper RWP 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    73. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    75. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
    76. Lin, Jianhao & Fan, Jiacheng & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Information Dissemination and the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    77. Shu Wu, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200512, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2005.
    78. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
    79. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    80. Grasso, Adriana & Natoli, Filippo, 2018. "Consumption volatility risk and the inversion of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2141, European Central Bank.
    81. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    82. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje, 2010. "Determinants of Weekly Yields on Government Securities in India," Working Papers id:2834, eSocialSciences.
    83. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    84. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    85. M. Collin, 2007. "The flattening of the yield curve : causes and economic policy implications," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 47-60, June.
    86. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    87. Ajit Dayanandan & Jai Chander & N. R. V. V. M. K. Rajendra Kumar, 2023. "Size and liquidity of government securities in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 71-90, June.
    88. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.
    89. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
    90. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    91. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    92. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    93. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    94. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462.
    95. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    96. Francesco Audrino, 2012. "What Drives Short Rate Dynamics? A Functional Gradient Descent Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 315-335, March.
    97. P.A. Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in an Empirical Macro Model with Asymmetric Information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 146, Society for Computational Economics.
    98. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 364-389.
    99. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    100. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    101. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    102. Pavol Povala & Anna Cieslak, 2012. "Understanding bond risk premia," 2012 Meeting Papers 771, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    103. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    104. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    105. Anastasios Demertzidis & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2021. "Empirical Estimation of Intraday Yield Curves on the Italian Interbank Credit Market e-MID," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-23, May.
    106. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 32, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    107. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    108. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 241-270.
    109. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
    110. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 322, Bank of England.
    111. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj & Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "A model of fiscal dominance under the “Reinhart Conjecture”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 332-345.
    112. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    113. Wang, Zijun, 2012. "The causal structure of bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-102.
    114. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO.
    115. James A. Clouse, 2004. "Reading the minds of investors: an empirical term structure model for policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    116. Hokuto Ishii, 2019. "Forecasting Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, July.
    117. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    118. Fendel, Ralf, 2008. "A Joint Characterization of German Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the German Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 4(01-2), pages 1-19.
    119. Mariano Kulish, 2005. "Should Monetary Policy use Long-term Rates?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 635, Boston College Department of Economics.
    120. Jing Yuan & Yan Peng & Tsun Zongwu Cai & Zhengyi Zhang, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 23(2), pages 197-221, November.
    121. Fernandes, Marcelo & Nunes, Clemens & Reis, Yuri, 2021. "What Drives the Nominal Yield Curve in Brazil?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    122. Sanjay Singh & Neeraj Hatekar, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and evolution of term structure of interest rate: A dynamic latent factor approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 245-262, December.
    123. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    124. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    125. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
    126. Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
    127. Burak Eroglu & Secil Yildirim-Karaman, 2017. "Responses Of Term Structure Of Interest Rates And Asset Prices To Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1705, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    128. Martin Møller Andreasen, 2008. "Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-43, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    129. Semko, Roman, 2011. "Bayesian estimation of small-scale DSGE model of the Ukrainian economy," MPRA Paper 35215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    131. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    132. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2020. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14708, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    133. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2016. "What derives the bond portfolio value-at-risk: Information roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    134. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    135. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    136. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    137. Benjamin Croitoru & Lei Lu, 2015. "Asset Pricing in a Monetary Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2203-2219, September.
    138. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
    139. Taeyoung Doh, 2009. "Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model," Research Working Paper RWP 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    140. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel, 2011. "The yield curve in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 268-279.
    141. Gao, Han & Kulish, Mariano & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    142. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
    143. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Working Papers 228, Bank for International Settlements.
    144. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    145. Mustapha Olalekan Ojo & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2020. "A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2333-2351, May.
    146. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    147. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    148. Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus & Linzert, Tobias, 2013. "ECB monetary policy surprises: Identification through cojumps in interest rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-038, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    149. Ganchev, Alexander, 2023. "The Behaviour of Chinese Government Bond Yield Curve before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 117626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    150. Marcello Pericoli, 2013. "Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 927, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    151. Lars Winkelmann & Markus Bibinger & Tobias Linzert, 2016. "ECB Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification Through Cojumps in Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 613-629, June.
    152. Gilles Dufrénot & Meryem Rhouzlane & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2019. "Potential Growth and Natural Yield Curve in Japan," Working Papers halshs-02091035, HAL.
    153. Asgharian, Hossein & Liu, Lu & Larsson, Marcus, 2015. "Cross-Border Asset Holdings and Comovements in Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Papers 2015:30, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    154. Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto, 2023. "A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1255, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    155. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    156. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    157. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 297-311, June.
    158. Umut Akovali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bond Market Connectedness in the New Normal," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    159. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Posch, Olaf & van der Wel, Michel, 2016. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models using mixed frequency macro and financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 116-137.
    160. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," Working Papers 25-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Jan 2025.
    161. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
    162. Exterkate, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    163. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha, 2019. "The Neo-Fisherianism to Escape Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 92669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    164. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    165. Linzert, Tobias & Winkelmann, Lars & Bibinger, Markus, 2014. "ECB monetary policy surprises: identification through cojumps in interest rates," Working Paper Series 1674, European Central Bank.
    166. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    167. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    168. Su, Li & Zhu, Jingjing, 2024. "Term structures and firm dynamics: A FAVAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    169. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2008. "Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 85-116, December.
    170. Naohiko Baba & Shinichi Nishioka & Nobuyuki Oda & Masaaki Shirakawa & Kazuo Ueda & Hiroshi Ugai, 2005. "Japan's deflation, problems in the financial system and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 188, Bank for International Settlements.
    171. Horváth, Roman & Maršál, Aleš, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates in a small open economy DSGE model with Markov switching," FinMaP-Working Papers 22, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    172. António Afonso & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2010. "Level, Slope, Curvature of Sovereign Yield Curve and Fiscal Behaviour," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    173. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
    174. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2005. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Working Paper Series 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    175. Zhuoshi Liu & Peter Spencer, 2009. "An Admissible Term Structure Model Of Sovereign Yield Spreads With Macro Factors: The Case Of Brazilian Global Bonds," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 108-125, September.
    176. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    177. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Lyrio, Marco, 2018. "A macro-financial analysis of the corporate bond market," Working Paper Series 2214, European Central Bank.
    178. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
    179. Peter Claeys, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," CIMEO Working Paper Series 38, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    180. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    181. Dongho Song, 2016. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 915, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Jul 2016.
    182. Koutsobinas, Theodore, 2011. "Animal spirits, liquidity-preference and Keynesian behavioural macroeconomics: An intertemporal framework," MPRA Paper 43027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    183. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    184. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
    185. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    186. Chernov, Mikhail & Bikbov, Ruslan, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7096, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    187. Hibiki Ichiue, 2005. "How Do Monetary Policy Rules Affect Term Premia?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    188. Jessica James & Michael Leister & Christoph Rieger, 2017. "An empirical method of calculating the term premium," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1783-1793, December.
    189. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    190. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    191. Kliem, Martin & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2017. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Discussion Papers 30/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    192. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    193. Claus, Edda & Dungey, Mardi, 2016. "Can monetary policy surprises affect the term structure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 68-83.
    194. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    195. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    196. Andreas Reschreiter, 2010. "Inflation And The Mean‐Reverting Level Of The Short Rate," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(1), pages 76-91, January.
    197. Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 220, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    198. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    199. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
    200. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    201. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    202. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    203. Wei, Chao, 2009. "A quartet of asset pricing models in nominal and real economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 154-165, January.
    204. Tu, Anthony H. & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "A factor-based approach of bond portfolio value-at-risk: The informational roles of macroeconomic and financial stress factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-268.
    205. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.
    206. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    207. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    208. Martina Makarieva, 2021. "Yield curve modelling and forecasting in an undeveloped financial market: The case of Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 61-83,84-10.
    209. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    210. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    211. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    212. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    213. Park, Kwangyong, 2022. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates and central bank credibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    214. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    215. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    216. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    217. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    218. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    219. Carrillo, J.A., 2010. "How well does sticky information explain inflation and output inertia?," Research Memorandum 018, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    220. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    221. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "Forecasting the Yield Curve Using Priors from No Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 612, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    222. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
    223. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2005. "The Effects of the Bank of Japan's Zero Interest Rate Commitment and Quantitative Monetary Easing on the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-336, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    224. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
    225. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan-Miguel, 2013. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1852-1871.
    226. Di Xiao & Andreas Krause, 2022. "Bank demand for central bank liquidity and its impact on interbank markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 639-679, July.
    227. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the eurozone," Working Papers 0827, Banco de España.
    228. Fendel, Ralf, 2004. "Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,24, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    229. Lengwiler, Yvan & Lenz, Carlos, 2010. "Intelligible factors for the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 481-491, August.
    230. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2010. "Modeling and Forecasting Short-term Interest Rates: The Benefits of Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging," Textos para discussão 570, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    231. Niklas J. Westelius & Mathias Hoffmann & Jens Sondergaard, 2007. "The Timing and Magnitude of Exchange Rate Overshooting," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 418, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    232. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Holly, Sean, 2010. "Macroeconomic models and the yield curve: An assessment of the fit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1343-1358, August.
    233. Kumhof, Michael & Wang, Xuan, 2021. "Banks, money, and the zero lower bound on deposit rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    234. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1716.
    235. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    236. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    237. Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
    238. Adam Hale Shapiro, "undated". "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    239. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    240. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    241. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    242. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
    243. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    244. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    245. Sensarma, Rudra & Bhattacharyya, Indranil, 2015. "Measuring monetary policy and its impact on the bond market of an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 81067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    246. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    247. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriele M. Lepori, 2022. "Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2371, May.
    248. Linlin Niu & Gengming Zeng, 2013. "The Discrete-Time Framework of the Arbitrage-Free Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    249. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2018. "Nearly exact Bayesian estimation of non-linear no-arbitrage term structure models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1189, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    250. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    251. Filipova, Kameliya & Audrino, Francesco & De Giorgi, Enrico, 2014. "Monetary policy regimes: Implications for the yield curve and bond pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 427-454.
    252. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje, 2014. "Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 375-400, November.
    253. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 23480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    254. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2025. "Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    255. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    256. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    257. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    258. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2004. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    259. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    260. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    261. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    262. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
    263. Wolfgang Lemke & Deutsche Bundesbank, 2006. "Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-28344-7, September.
    264. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    265. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    266. Shigeru Iwata, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates When Short-Term Rates Are Close to Zero," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 59-78, November.
    267. Eric Swanson & Glenn Rudebusch, 2008. "Long-Run Inflation Risk and the Postwar Term Premium," 2008 Meeting Papers 988, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    268. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
    269. Bahaa Aly, Tarek, 2025. "Nonlinear Macroeconomic Granger Causality: An ANN Input Occlusion Approach on MSSA-Denoised Data," MPRA Paper 125453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    270. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    271. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    272. Jones, Callum & Kulish, Mariano, 2013. "Long-term interest rates, risk premia and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2547-2561.
    273. Walker Ray, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Limits to Arbitrage: Insights from a New Keynesian Preferred Habitat Model," 2019 Meeting Papers 692, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    274. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    275. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    276. Bojan Baskot & Silvije Orsag & Dejan Mikerevic, 2018. "Yield Curve In Bosnia And Herzegovina: Financial And Macroeconomic Framework," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15.
    277. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
    278. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    279. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2013. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-031, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    280. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models," NBER Working Papers 19360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    281. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    282. Tao Wu, 2008. "On the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's new liquidity facilities," Working Papers 0808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    283. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    284. Billio, M. & Busetto, F. & Dufour, A. & Varotto, S., 2025. "Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    285. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    286. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy: Asset Allocation Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2012/078, International Monetary Fund.
    287. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2012. "Measuring the natural yield curve," NBP Working Papers 108, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    288. Benjamin H Cohen & Peter Hördahl & Dora Xia, 2018. "Term premia: models and some stylised facts," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    289. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 18357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    290. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    291. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," NBER Working Papers 16764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    292. Cordeiro, Werley & Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2025. "Forecasting the Brazilian yield curve using macroeconomics expectations and time-varying volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    293. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    294. Jonas Nygaard Eriksen, 2015. "Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2015-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    295. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    296. Annika Camehl & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2023. "Time-Varying Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Papers 2311.05883, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    297. Jing Yuan & Yan Peng & Zongwu Cai & Zhengyi Zhang, 2022. "A Quantitative Evaluation of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202214, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    298. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    299. Marius Acatrinei, 2017. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and latent factor of the EU yield curve," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 11, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    300. Stona, Filipe & Caldeira, João F., 2019. "Do U.S. factors impact the Brazilian yield curve? Evidence from a dynamic factor model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 76-89.
    301. Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
    302. Werner, Thomas & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics," Working Paper Series 1045, European Central Bank.
    303. M. Falagiarda & M. Marzo, 2012. "A DSGE model with Endogenous Term Structure," Working Papers wp830, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    304. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    305. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
    306. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    307. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    308. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    309. Sen Dong, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rates:A Structural VAR Identified by No Arbitrage," 2006 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    310. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
    311. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    312. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The transmission channels between the financial and real sectors: a critical survey of the literature," BCBS Working Papers 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    313. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

  49. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    Cited by:

    1. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2020. "Identification robust empirical evidence on the Euler equation in open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2020-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Khalaf, Lynda & Lin, Zhenjiang, 2021. "Projection-based inference with particle swarm optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.
    5. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Laura Bacali, 2008. "The Impact of the Advance of SME's for the Romanian Economy," Working Papers 0804, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    7. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the New Phillips Curve)," Working papers 103, Banque de France.
    8. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artifact?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0016, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    9. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    11. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
    12. André Kurmann, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Theories with an Application to New Keynesian Pricing," Macroeconomics 0409028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Matheron, Julien & Poilly, Céline, 2009. "How well does a small structural model with sticky prices and wages fit postwar U.S. data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 266-284, January.
    14. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2014. "The relationship between the variance of inflation and the variance of output under different types of monetary policy," Working Papers 0814, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
    15. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    16. Mark Crosby & Tim Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2006. "How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2010. "Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 3081, CESifo.
    18. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2019. "The Phillips Multiplier," Working Papers 1070, Barcelona School of Economics.
    21. Mayer, Eric & Hülsewig, Oliver & Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "The Price Puzzle Revisited: Can the Cost Channel explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Shock?," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 74, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    22. Anna Florio, 2013. "The Implied Consumer Euler Rate: What Role for Financial Frictions?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(4), pages 650-675, December.
    23. Matteo Iacoviello, 2004. "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: a Structural Econometric Analysis," 2004 Meeting Papers 201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Ascari, Guido & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 129-152.
    25. Bechlioulis, Alexandros & Brissimis, Sophocles, 2014. "Consumer default and optimal consumption decisions," MPRA Paper 56864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2008. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Staff Reports 351, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Söderström, Ulf & Leitemo, Kai & ,, 2006. "Methods for Robust Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 5638, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    28. Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2009. "Evaluating Exchange Rate Management An Application to Korea," Working Papers 282009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    30. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    32. Ulf Söderström & Paul Söderlind & Anders Vredin, 2005. "New‐Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re‐examination of the Stylized Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 521-546, September.
    33. Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2012. "Changes in the Output Euler Equation and Asset Markets Participation," Post-Print hal-00680647, HAL.
    34. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    35. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Simple Test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 592, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    36. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Wollmershäuser, Timo & Mayer, Eric & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2006. "Bank Behavior and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 71, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    38. Dibartolomeo, Giovanni & Rossi, Lorenza & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," MPRA Paper 1094, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    39. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Why Are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 160, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    40. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    41. van den End, Jan Willem & Konietschke, Paul & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2021. "Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2620, European Central Bank.
    42. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    43. Michael T. Kiley, 2012. "The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    45. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "Estimating the Aggregate Consumption Euler Equation with State-Dependent Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 8233, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    46. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: Is there a puzzle?," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    47. Peter Claeys, 2005. "Policy Mix and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Fiscal Policy Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 1406, CESifo.
    48. Stracca Livio, 2017. "The Euler equation around the world," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-9, June.
    49. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Under Balanced Budget And Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(4), pages 455-472, September.
    50. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Comparison," Working Papers 0727, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    51. Favero, Carlo A. & Söderström, Ulf & Kaminska, Iryna, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    52. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    53. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    54. Morrisy, Stephen D., 2017. "Efficient estimation of macroeconomic equations with unobservable states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 408-423.
    55. Palma, Andreza Aparecida & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2011. "Preferences of the Central Bank of Brasil under the inflation targeting regime: commitment vs. discretion," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(4), November.
    56. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2018. "Is the new keynesian is curve forward looking?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 797, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    57. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2011. "Nonseparable Preferences, Frisch Labor Supply, and the Consumption Multiplier of Government Spending: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 221-251, February.
    58. Gabe J. Bondt, 2025. "Future real GDP: real interest rate and inflation matter," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(3), pages 661-681, September.
    59. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2015. "A novel ex-ante leading indicator for the EU industrial production," SAFE Working Paper Series 118, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    60. Luca Fanelli, 2009. "Estimation of quasi-rational DSGE monetary models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    61. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    62. Fuhrer, Jeffrey, 2006. "Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Kilponen, Juha & Vilmunen, Jouko & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2013. "Estimating intertemporal elasticity of substitution in a sticky price model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2013, Bank of Finland.
    64. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 03/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    65. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    66. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Bergljot Barkbu & Vincenzo Cassino & Aileen Gosselin-Lotz & Laura Piscitelli, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the United States and the euro area: aggregation bias, stability and robustness," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 285, Bank of England.
    68. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    69. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio & Fang Yao, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models," Working Paper Series 2014-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    70. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of stability and growth pact reform proposals in a small-scale macro framework," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01070286, HAL.
    71. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    72. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    73. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    74. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
    75. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Working Papers 228, Bank for International Settlements.
    76. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    77. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2004. "The great inflation, limited asset markets participation and aggregate demand: FED policy was better than you think," Working Paper Series 408, European Central Bank.
    78. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    79. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    80. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    81. Andrzej Torój, 2009. "Solving forward-looking models of cross-country adjustment within the euro area," MF Working Papers 2, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    82. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    83. Giesen, Sebastian & Scheufele, Rolf, 2013. "Effects of Incorrect Specification on the Finite Sample Properties of Full and Limited Information Estimators in DSGE Models," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    84. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predicting inflation expectations: A habit-based explanation under hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    85. Diana N. Weymark & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Quantifying Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response in the United States," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000321, UCLA Department of Economics.
    86. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
    87. Edge, Rochelle M., 2007. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1644-1669, September.
    88. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    89. Farmer, Roger & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Beyer, Andreas, 2005. "Factor Analysis in a New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5266, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    90. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    91. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Lansing, Kevin J., 2025. "A simple measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in FIRE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    92. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2014. "Staggered prices, the optimizing taylor rule and the irrelevance of the is curve," Working Papers 0714, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
    93. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    94. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "The case for price level or inflation targeting--What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-291, August.
    95. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    96. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Nguyen, Chau N., 2018. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 12, pages 1-13.
    97. Richard Dennis, 2003. "New Keynesian Optimal Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment," Working Paper Series 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    98. Ida Wolden Bache & Bjørn E. Naug, 2008. "Estimating New Keynesian import price models," Working Paper 2007/15, Norges Bank.
    99. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    100. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2021. "The impact of hedging on risk-averse agents’ output decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    101. Hashmat Khan & Charlotta Groth, 2007. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Carleton Economic Papers 07-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    102. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    103. Katuala, Hénock M., 2021. "Frictions financières et Dynamique macroéconomique : Examen des régularités cycliques," Dynare Working Papers 66, CEPREMAP.
    104. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Manzo, Marco, 2007. "Do tax distortions lead to more indeterminacy? A New Keynesian perspective," MPRA Paper 3549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Fisher's Relation and the Term Structure: Implications for IS Curves," MPRA Paper 55553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    106. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1461-1472.
    107. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
    108. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    109. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2004. "Estimating forward looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal instruments approach," Working Papers 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    110. Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," Working Papers 2012-04, Swiss National Bank.
    111. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    112. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: A G7 Comparison," Quaderni di Dipartimento 101, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    113. Jan Willem van den End & Paul Konietschke & Anna Samarina & Irina M. Stanga, 2020. "Macroeconomic reversal rate: evidence from a nonlinear IS-curve," Working Papers 684, DNB.
    114. Peter N. Smith & Mike Wickens, 2006. "The New Consensus in Monetary Policy: Is the NKM fit for the purpose of inflation targeting?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0610, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    115. Stephane Dees & Matthias Burgert & Nicolas Parent, 2013. "Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 789-816, October.
    116. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2007. "Investment adjustment costs: evidence from UK and US industries," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 332, Bank of England.
    117. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    118. Alexandros P. Bechlioulis & Sophocles N. Brissimis, 2021. "Are household consumption decisions affected by past due unsecured debt? Theory and evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3040-3053, April.
    119. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Testing for weak identification in possibly nonlinear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 246-261, April.
    120. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 49, Society for Computational Economics.
    121. Ji, Yangyang, 2022. "Can Discounting Alone Resolve the Forward Guidance Puzzle?," MPRA Paper 115353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    122. Malikane, Christopher, 2024. "Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    123. Stracca, Livio, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 600, European Central Bank.
    124. Jamie Murray, 2013. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    125. Bozhechkova, Alexandera V. (Божечкова, Александра В.) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Полбин, Андрей В.), 2018. "Evidence for the Interest Rate Channel in the IS Curve for the Russian Economy [Тестирование Наличия Процентного Канала В Кривой Is Для Российской Экономики]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 70-91, February.
    126. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    127. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou, 2012. "Is the honeymoon effect valid in the presence of both exchange rate and output expectations? A graphical analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 140-146.
    128. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle and Indeterminacy," Macroeconomics 0507021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    129. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    130. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.
    131. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi, 2007. "Heterogeneous consumers, demand regimes, monetary policy and equilibrium determinacy," CIMEO Working Paper Series 24, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    132. Alovokpinhou, Sedjro Aaron & Malikane, Christopher, 2024. "The effect of output and the real exchange rate on equity price dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    133. Kilponen, Juha & Vilmunen, Jouko & Vähämaa, Oskari, 2021. "Revisiting intertemporal elasticity of substitution in a sticky price model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2021, Bank of Finland.
    134. Castelnuovo Efrem, 2006. "The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    135. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/183, International Monetary Fund.
    136. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Switch, the Taylor Curve, and the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 59, Society for Computational Economics.
    137. Adam Altar-Samuel, 2008. "Robust Monetary Policy," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 21, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    138. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2008. "Generalized method of moments and inverse control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3113-3147, October.
    139. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Mixed frequency structural models: estimation, and policy analysis," Working Paper 2013/15, Norges Bank.
    140. Gregory E. Givens, 2012. "Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1033-1061, September.
    141. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    142. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    143. Kirdan Lees, 2006. "What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    144. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
    145. Andrzej Torój, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    146. Tsasa Vangu, Jean-Paul Kimbambu, 2014. "Diagnostic de la politique monétaire en Rép. Dém. Congo – Approche par l’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique," Dynare Working Papers 38, CEPREMAP.
    147. Costas Karfakis & Eftychia Karfaki, 2018. "Is the financial cycle a leading indicator of real output during expansions and contractions? A quantile analysis for Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2018_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2018.
    148. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    149. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    150. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    151. Diana N. Weymark & Mototsugu Shintani, 2004. "Measuring Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response: A General Approach Applied to US Data 1966 - 2001," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0424, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    152. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2012. "Real expectations: replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models," Working Papers 12-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    153. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    154. Ray Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2483, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    155. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2023. "Identification Robust Empirical Evidence on the Open Economy IS‐Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 345-372, April.
    156. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Reconsidered," MPRA Paper 55547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    157. Christopher Malikane, 2017. "The labour share and the dynamics of output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(37), pages 3741-3750, August.
    158. Kurmann, Andre, 2007. "VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to New Keynesian pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 767-796, March.
    159. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.
    160. Bilbiie, Florin, 2009. "Non-Separable Preferences and Frisch Labor Supply: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7484, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    161. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
    162. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.
    163. Nikolay Iskrev, 2013. "On the distribution of information in the moment structure of DSGE models," 2013 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    164. Lacina Balma & Daniel Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2019. "Working Paper 320 - Hands Off Oil Revenues? Public Investment and Cash Transfers," Working Paper Series 2446, African Development Bank.

  50. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Working Paper Series 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Open Access publications 10197/211, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 2006/276, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    4. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    6. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2007. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 453-462.
    7. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    8. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2005. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0506017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Brian Hayes, 2011. "Economics, Control Theory, and the Phillips Machine," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1101, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    10. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Laban K. Chesang & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2014. "Parameter Uncertainty and Inflation Dynamics in a Model with Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Working Papers 201437, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    13. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Takeshi Kimura & Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policymaking under Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 89-128, November.
    14. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Explaining ECB and Fed interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2014. "Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series 4871, CESifo.
    17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 395-422, March.
    18. Robert S. Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "On the German Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Interest Rate and Credit Channels for Investment Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series 838, CESifo.
    19. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry in Open Economy New Keynesian Framework," MPRA Paper 111567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    24. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 269, Econometric Society.
    25. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    26. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.
    27. Q. Farooq Akram & Gunnar Bärdsen & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Monetary policy and asset prices: to respond or not?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 279-292.
    28. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    29. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    30. Benati, Luca, 2021. "Leaning against house prices: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 399-412.
    31. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
    32. William A. Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry into Open Economy New Keynesian Macrodynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 217-253, April.
    33. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "La política monetaria cercada por un movimiento de pinzas," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 004-044, August.
    34. Dominique Pepin, 2010. "La BCE réagit-elle au prix des actifs financiers ?," Working Papers hal-00963626, HAL.
    35. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "Monetary policy in the grip of a pincer movement," BIS Working Papers 706, Bank for International Settlements.
    36. Dossche, Maarten & Everaert, Gerdie, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Series 495, European Central Bank.
    37. Harald Van Heerde & Kristiaan Helsen & Marnik G. Dekimpe, 2007. "The Impact of a Product-Harm Crisis on Marketing Effectiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 230-245, 03-04.
    38. Zhang, Chengsi & Clovis, Joel, 2010. "China inflation dynamics: Persistence and policy regimes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 373-388, May.
    39. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2016. "On the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique: the case of euro area money demand," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82, February.
    40. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    41. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: New Evidence From Time‐Varying Interest Rate Rules," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 933-950, October.
    42. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    43. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    44. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    45. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    46. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    48. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2014. "Macro effects of capital requirements and macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-93.
    49. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    50. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    51. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    52. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    53. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 2006/097, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "Ideal and Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Actual and Optimal Policy Measures," MPRA Paper 70688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 622-629.
    56. Chengsi Zhang, 2008. "Structural instability of US inflation persistence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1147-1151.
    57. Domenico Gatti & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati, 2010. "Complex agent-based macroeconomics: a manifesto for a new paradigm," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(2), pages 111-135, December.
    58. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    59. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "What anchors for the natural rate of interest?," BIS Working Papers 777, Bank for International Settlements.
    60. M Hashem Pesaran & Ron P Smith, 2017. "Tests of Policy Interventions in DSGE Models," BCAM Working Papers 1706, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    61. Peter Tillmann, 2010. "A note on the stability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 241-245, February.
    62. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Post-Print halshs-00943753, HAL.
    63. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2018. "How costly is a misspecified credit channel DSGE model in monetary policymaking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 484-505.
    64. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    65. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    66. Favero, Carlo A. & Monacelli, Tommas, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3887, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    67. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    68. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    69. Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Fisher's Relation and the Term Structure: Implications for IS Curves," MPRA Paper 55553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    70. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
    71. Ken Kuttner & Tim Robinson, 2008. "Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    72. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    73. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    74. E. Şimşek & M. Orhan & F. Macit, 2017. "Effect of Government Expenditure on GDP in the Turkish Economy," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 69-76, September.
    75. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    76. Fernando N. de Oliveira & Myrian Petrassi, 2010. "Is Inflation Persistence Over?," Working Papers Series 230, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    77. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2011/218, International Monetary Fund.
    78. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.
    79. Jonas Fisher, 2004. "Technology Shocks Matter," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 14, Econometric Society.
    80. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    81. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 6957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    82. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    83. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2002. "Macroeconomic models for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr19.
    84. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    85. Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2007. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis How important is empirical validity?," Memorandum 14/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    86. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2006. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis – Importance of empirical validity," Working Paper 2006/13, Norges Bank.
    87. Sam Warburton & Kirdan Lees, 2005. "A happy "halfway-house"? Medium term inflation targeting in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    88. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2016. "The euro effect: Tourism creation, tourism diversion and tourism potential within the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(1), pages 46-68, March.
    89. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2024. "Open-economy macroeconomics with financial frictions: A simple model with flexible exchange rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    90. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    91. Ray Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2483, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    92. Hafer, R.W. & Jones, Garett, 2008. "Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 609-616, June.
    93. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  51. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
    2. Mordecai Kurz & M. Motolese & G. Piccillo & H. Hu, 2015. "Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations," Working Papers 15-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    3. Kasimir Kaliva, 2008. "The Fisher effect, survey data and time-varying volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-10, August.
    4. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
    5. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    8. Favero, Carlo A. & Consolo, Agostino, 2009. "Monetary Policy Inertia: More a Fiction than a fact?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7341, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Barrdear, John, 2015. "Towards a new Keynesian theory of the price level," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86315, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Richard T. Froyen & Alfred V Guender, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in Open-Economy Taylor Rules: A Re-Assessment," Working Papers in Economics 16/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    13. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the New Phillips Curve)," Working papers 103, Banque de France.
    14. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 2005. "Some Further Evidence on Interest-Rate Smoothing: The Role of Measurement Errors in the Output Gap," Working Paper Series 178, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 241, Bank of England.
    16. Nadia Tahir, 2013. "Forward-Looking and Backward-Looking Taylor Rules: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 121-145, July-Dec.
    17. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    18. Thomas Lubik & Massimiliano Marzo, 2003. "An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Economics Working Paper Archive 500, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    19. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    20. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes of the Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy under Ambiguity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-863, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    22. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    23. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2009. "Taylor Rule or Optimal Timeless Policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behaviour since 1982," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2010.
    24. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    25. Yosra Baaziz, 2015. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Brazil: A LSTR Model Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, April.
    26. Maria Demertzis, 2006. "The Role of Expectations in Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 393-412, December.
    27. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
    28. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
    29. Yash P. Mehra, 2002. "The Taylor principle, interest rate smoothing and Fed policy in the 1970s and 1980s," Working Paper 02-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    30. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    31. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    32. Matheron, Julien & Poilly, Céline, 2009. "How well does a small structural model with sticky prices and wages fit postwar U.S. data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 266-284, January.
    33. Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?," Working Papers 2011/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    34. Ayşegül Ladin SÜMER, 2020. "Optimal Taylor rule in the new era central banking perspective," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 159-170, Spring.
    35. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2011. "Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention," Working Paper Series 1331, European Central Bank.
    36. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    37. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2008: Folgen der US-Immobilienkrise belasten Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(08), pages 03-71, April.
    38. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," NBP Working Papers 43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    39. Richard Dennis, 2001. "The Policy Preferences of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Working Paper Series 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    40. Yan Liu & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Reconstructing the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Carey Kevin, 2001. "Testing for Stabilizing Monetary Policy Rules: How Robust to Alternative Specifications?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, September.
    42. Eric Olson & Walter Enders, 2012. "A Historical Analysis of the Taylor Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1285-1299, October.
    43. Mehmet Fatih, Ekinci, 2010. "Inattentive Consumers and Exchange Rate Volatility," MPRA Paper 26472, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Oct 2010.
    44. Cancelo, José Ramón & Varela, Diego & Sánchez-Santos, José Manuel, 2011. "Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 804-820.
    45. Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Macro factors and the term structure of interest rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 25, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    46. Louis Phaneuf & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "Production Stages and the Transmission of Technological Progress," Cahiers de recherche 0802, CIRPEE.
    47. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Supply Side of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 422, Econometric Society.
    48. Anna Florio, 2009. "Asymmetric Preferences For Interest Rate Variability And Non‐Linear Monetary Policy Inertia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 685-704, November.
    49. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 719-734.
    50. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    51. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2013. "Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2796-2813.
    52. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "US Monetary Policy Rules: the Case for Asymmetric Preferences," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 199, Royal Economic Society.
    53. Jérôme Coffinet & Céline Poilly, 2009. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(2), pages 273-299.
    54. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    55. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 395-422, March.
    56. Engin Kara, 2009. "Micro data on nominal rigidity, inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 175, National Bank of Belgium.
    57. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    58. Hilde Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2011. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 755-777, May.
    59. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    60. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Staggered Wage Bargaining when Prices are Sticky," Working Paper Series 2006:31, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, revised 05 Jun 2009.
    61. Kuper, Gerard & Veurink, Jan Hessel, 2014. "Central bank independence and political pressure in the Greenspan era," Research Report 14020-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    62. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    63. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    64. Söderström, Ulf & Leitemo, Kai & ,, 2006. "Methods for Robust Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 5638, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    65. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2011. "Transmission lags and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 565-578, April.
    66. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2017. "Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 171-185, February.
    67. Bharat Trehan & Tao Wu, 2004. "Time-Varying Equilibrium Real Rates and Monetary Policy Analysis," Working Paper Series 2004-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    68. Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Policy Rate Decisions and Unbiased Parameter Estimation in Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2008/2, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    69. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017/2018: Deutsche Wirtschaft stark und stabil," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    70. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
    71. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    72. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2007. "How committees reduce the volatility of policy rates," DULBEA Working Papers 07-11.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    74. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "Taylor rules for the euro area: the issue of real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,37, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    75. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Sticky-Information Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 1-28, July.
    76. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," ESSEC Working Papers WP1610, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    77. Chang, Ming-Jen & Matsuki, Takashi, 2022. "Exchange rate forecasting with real-time data: Evidence from Western offshoots," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    78. Yash P. Mehra & Bansi Sawhney, 2010. "Inflation measure, Taylor rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke years," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(2Q), pages 123-151.
    79. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    80. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    81. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Nicolas Groshenny & Qazi Haque & Mark Weder, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy after the 2001 Slump," Adelaide Economics Working Papers 2016-18, Adelaide University, School of Economics.
    82. Michael Kumhof, 2004. "Inflation Inertia- THe Role of Multiple, Interacting Pricing Rigidities," Working Papers 182004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    83. Kai Leitemo, 2004. "Targeting Inflation by Forecast Feedback Rules in Small Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 18, Society for Computational Economics.
    84. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and the Nominal Term Premium," Working and Discussion Papers WP 9/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    85. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    86. Hartmann, Matthias & Conrad, Christian, 2014. "Cross sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100477, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    87. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo.
    88. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.
    89. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," NBER Working Papers 16707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    90. De Lipsis Vincenzo, 2021. "Dating Structural Changes in UK Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 509-539, June.
    91. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Michael Kumhof & Eric Parrado, 2003. "Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 232, Central Bank of Chile.
    92. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    93. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    94. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    95. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    96. Manuel Joaquim Da Natividade Silva & Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2016. "Dynamic relations of the inertia of monetary policy: application to the Brazilian case by a Kalman approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24.
    97. Divino, José Angelo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules Across OECD Countries," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(1), April.
    98. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    99. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    100. Lochner, Benjamin, 2014. "Employment protection in dual labor markets: Any amplification of macroeconomic shocks?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 14/2014, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    101. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Shadow rates as a measure of the monetary policy stance: Some international evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(5), pages 399-422, November.
    102. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 131-148, July.
    103. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Money Supply and the Implementation of Interest Rate Targets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-059/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    104. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    105. Stan Hurn & Nicholas Johnson & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2018. "Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2018-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    106. Ali Malik, 2010. "The importance of output for the monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 917-923.
    107. Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, 2005. "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 281, Bank of England.
    108. Mirkov, Nikola & Natvik, Gisle James, 2013. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Working Papers on Finance 1303, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    109. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Macroeconomics 0403009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    110. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61, pages 289-303.
    111. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 35, Bank of Greece.
    112. Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "How Do Central Banks React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    113. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    114. Hasui, Kohei & Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2021. "Optimal irreversible monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    115. Karl Whelan, 2002. "An overview of monetary policy in the US," Open Access publications 10197/205, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    116. Yu‐Hsi Chou & Chia‐Yi Yen, 2023. "Convenience yield and real exchange rate dynamics: A present‐value interpretation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 453-489, May.
    117. Keinsley, Andrew, 2016. "Indexing the income tax code, monetary/fiscal interaction, and the great moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-20.
    118. Federico Ravenna, 2005. "Vector Autoregressions and Reduced Form Representations of DSGE Models," 2005 Meeting Papers 841, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    119. Melecky, Martin & Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 10545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    120. Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2012. "Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy in Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 143-166, December.
    121. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    122. Helle Bunzel & Walter Enders, 2010. "The Taylor Rule and “Opportunistic” Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 931-949, August.
    123. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    124. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    125. Martin, C. & Milas, C., 2004. "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy," Working Papers 04/05, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    126. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Working Paper 324, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Aug 2008.
    127. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    128. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    129. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
    130. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2009. "Monetary policy rules in theory and in practice: evidence from the UK and the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2037-2046.
    131. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 164-169, May.
    132. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)," NBER Working Papers 12024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    133. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," Working Paper Series 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    134. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Do errors in forecasting inflation lead to errors in forecasting interest rates?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    135. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    136. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
    137. Gorodnichenko, Y & Coibion, O, 2016. "How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qc6f09b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    138. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    139. Peter N. Ireland, 2010. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    140. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    141. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
    142. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    143. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462.
    144. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Western Hemisphere," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 19-52, December.
    145. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    146. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
    147. Arefeva, Alina & Arefyev, Nikolay, 2025. "Playing by the Taylor rules or sticking to Friedman’s policy: A new approach to monetary policy identification," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    148. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Michael Wickens, 2015. "Revisiting the Great Moderation: Policy or Luck?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 197-223, April.
    149. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    150. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    151. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 94, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    152. Flamini, Alessandro & Fracasso, Andrea, 2011. "Household's preferences and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 64-67, April.
    153. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics.
    154. George A. Kahn & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
    155. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    156. Claire A. Reicher, 2016. "Matching labor’s share in a search and matching model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1254, June.
    157. Jaroslav Brada & Karel Brůna, 2004. "Analýza citlivosti referenčních úrokových sazeb PRIBOR na změny repo sazby České národní banky [An analysis of PRIBOR interest rates sensitivity to changes in Czech national bank repo rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 601-621.
    158. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    159. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    160. Carl Walsh, 2015. "Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," CESifo Working Paper Series 5293, CESifo.
    161. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice : Evidence from tunisia," MPRA Paper 66771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2015.
    162. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2009. "Does Central Bank Communication really Lead to better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 2760, CESifo.
    163. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    164. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.
    165. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
    166. Anders Vredin, 2015. "Inflation targeting and financial stability: providing policymakers with relevant information," BIS Working Papers 503, Bank for International Settlements.
    167. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    168. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2007. "Discretion and the transmission lags of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland.
    169. Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen & Alan Thanaset, 2006. "Forecasting changes in UK interest rates," Discussion Papers 06/06, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    170. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Effrosyni Alevizopoulou, 2012. "The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Policy Rules for European Banks: Further Extensions," Working papers 2012-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    171. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2002. "On (Sub) Optimal Monetary Policy Rules under Untied Fiscal Hands," Research Papers in Economics 2002:17, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    172. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2010. "Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1014-1024, December.
    173. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    174. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
    175. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Youngcheol Shin, 2011. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 2011-057, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    176. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”," NBER Working Papers 27013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    177. Fabia Gumbau-Brisa, 2005. "Heterogeneous beliefs and inflation dynamics: a general equilibrium approach," Working Papers 05-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    178. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    179. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    180. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 61-72.
    181. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2019. "The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 95479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    182. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-58, December.
    183. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
    184. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
    185. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    186. Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series WP-2016-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    187. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    188. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2004. "Habit Formation and Interest Rate Smoothing," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    189. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity," Working Paper Series 2007:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    190. Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules In The Run‐Up To The Emu," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 687-712, November.
    191. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
    192. Platonov, Konstantin & Goren, Amir, 2024. "Inflation targeting and output stabilization in an estimated monetary model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    193. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "How Central Should the Central Bank Be?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-133, March.
    194. Matthias Neuenkirch & Pierre Siklos, 2011. "What’s in a Second Opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201131, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    195. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    196. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    197. Spencer David E., 2004. "Output Gap Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the 1970s," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, February.
    198. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    199. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    200. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio & Fang Yao, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models," Working Paper Series 2014-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    201. Jan J J Groen & Akito Matsumoto, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 231, Bank of England.
    202. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    203. Ida Wolden Bache & Øistein Røislanda & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2011. "Interest Rate Smoothing and "Calvo-Type" Interest Rate Rules: A Comment on Levine, McAdam, and Pearlman (2007)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 79-90, September.
    204. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    205. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    206. Jose Angelo Divino, 2006. "Cross-Country Evidence On Monetary Policy Rules," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 178, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    207. Faia, Ester & Bursian, Dirk, 2015. "Trust in the Monetary Authority," CEPR Discussion Papers 10541, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    208. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    209. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2014. "Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-66.
    210. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    211. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
    212. Nuruddeen Usman & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana, 2025. "Inflation Persistence in the G7: The Effects of the Covid‐19 Pandemic and of the Russia‐Ukraine War," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 93(3), pages 281-288, June.
    213. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2011. "Contract length heterogeneity and the persistence of monetary shocks in a dynamic generalized Taylor economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 280-292, February.
    214. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
    215. Dongho Song, 2014. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    216. Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries," Kiel Working Papers 1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    217. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Decomposing Euro Area Sovereign Debt Yields into Inflation Expectations and Expected Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 68866, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2015.
    218. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Working Papers 2003-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    219. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Die Geldpolitik der EZB in der Klemme – kann mehr »Forward Guidance« helfen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 35-45, November.
    220. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    221. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    222. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    223. Roskelley, Kenneth D., 2016. "Augmenting the Taylor rule: Monetary policy and the bond market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 64-67.
    224. Pardo, S. & Rautureau, N. & Vallée, T., 2011. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2761-2775.
    225. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    226. Biqing Cai & Dag Tjøstheim, 2015. "Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Multivariate Null Recurrent Processes," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24, April.
    227. Bauer, Michael D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "The Fed's response to economic news explains the "Fed information effect"," IMFS Working Paper Series 155, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    228. Yu Guo And Wei Ma, 2016. "Time-Varying Coefficient Taylor Rule and Chinese Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Time-Varying Cointegration," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 27-44, December.
    229. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    230. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
    231. Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2021. "Higher Order Interest-Smoothing, Time-Varying Inflation Target and the Prospect of Indeterminacy," Working Papers 21-10, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    232. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences (new title: The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1280, CESifo.
    233. Fragetta, Matteo & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 855-879, October.
    234. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    235. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2013. "Time Horizons and Smoothing in the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between the Standard GMM and Ex Ante Forecast Approaches," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 662-679, October.
    236. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 235-249.
    237. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    238. Su, Li & Zhu, Jingjing, 2024. "Term structures and firm dynamics: A FAVAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    239. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    240. Froyen, Richard T. & Guender, Alfred V., 2018. "The real exchange rate in Taylor rules: A Re-Assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 140-151.
    241. Ester Faia & Eleni Iliopulos, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Financial Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00497486, HAL.
    242. Goodhart, Charles, 2004. "The Monetary Policy Committee's reaction function: an exercise in estimation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24708, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    243. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    244. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    245. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2017. "Monetary Rule, Central Bank Loss and Household’s Welfare: an Empirical Investigation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    246. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the Euro area," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 56, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    247. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    248. Verona, Fabio, 2014. "Pervasive inattentiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 287-290.
    249. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    250. Alan Armen & Evan F. Koenig, 2015. "Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    251. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    252. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
    253. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    254. Goodhart, Charles, 2004. "The interaction between the Bank of England's forecasts and policy, and the outturn," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24710, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    255. Imen Mohamed Sghaier & Zouheir Abida, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules for a Developing Countries: Evidence from Tunisia," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 5(1), pages 035-046, June.
    256. Favero, Carlo A. & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    257. Best Gabriela & Kapinos Pavel, 2016. "Monetary policy and news shocks: are Taylor rules forward-looking?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 335-360, June.
    258. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    259. Martin Feldstein & Mervyn King & Janet L. Yellen, 2004. "Panel Discussion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 41-48, May.
    260. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    261. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
    262. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2010. "Policy irreversibility and interest rate smoothing," MPRA Paper 19931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    263. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2011. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 959-992, August.
    264. Hibiki Ichiue, 2005. "How Do Monetary Policy Rules Affect Term Premia?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    265. Hakan Danis, 2017. "Nonlinearity and asymmetry in the monetary policy reaction function: a partially generalized ordered probit approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 161-178, August.
    266. Dudley Cooke & Engin Kara, 2018. "Can Trend Inflation Solve the Delayed Overshooting Puzzle?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 334, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    267. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    268. Samuel Howorth & Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos, 2019. "Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 191-217, April.
    269. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    270. Kohei Hasui & Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Tomohiro Sugo, 2019. "Irreversible monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 1906, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    271. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Greenspan’s conundrum and the Fed’s ability to affect long-term yields," Working Papers 2012-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    272. Louis Phaneuf & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Business Cycles: The Role of Processing Stages and Nominal Rigidities," Staff Working Papers 07-7, Bank of Canada.
    273. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    274. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
    275. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    276. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    277. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    278. Capazario, Michele, 2022. "Developing an Income-Distribution- Sensitive Taylor Rule: An Application to South Africa," MPRA Paper 112740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    279. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    280. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    281. Ricardo Reis, 2008. "A Sticky-Information General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 495, Central Bank of Chile.
    282. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    283. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2011. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in the new-Keynesian three-equations model," Economics Working Papers 2011-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    284. Hidi, János, 2006. "A magyar monetáris politikai reakciófüggvény becslése [Estimating the reaction function for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1178-1199.
    285. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    286. Gabriel Pino & Ariel Soto, 2014. "Analysis of wage flexibility across the Euro Area: evidence from the process of convergence of the labour income share ratio," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3572-3580, October.
    287. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
    288. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    289. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    290. Karel Bruna & Quang Van Tran, 2018. "Inflation Targeting and Variability of Money Market Interest Rates Under a Zero Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 519-539, December.
    291. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    292. Paolo Giordani, 2004. "Evaluating New‐Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 713-733, September.
    293. Omer Bayar, 2022. "Reducing large datasets to improve the identification of estimated policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 113-140, July.
    294. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, February.
    295. Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Fisher's Relation and the Term Structure: Implications for IS Curves," MPRA Paper 55553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    296. Alvarez Luis J. & Burriel Pablo, 2010. "Is a Calvo Price Setting Model Consistent with Individual Price Data?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, May.
    297. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2004. "Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(1), pages 37-66, March.
    298. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    299. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Frictions in a Small Open-Economy Model for Uganda," Working Papers 201710, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    300. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2003. "The reputation of a newborn central bank," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(224), pages 3-22.
    301. Lee, Seungcheol & Luetticke, Ralph & Ravn, Morten O., 2021. "Financial frictions: micro vs macro volatility," Working Paper Series 2622, European Central Bank.
    302. Rüdiger Bachmann & Sebastian K. Rüth, 2020. "Systematic Monetary Policy And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifts In Residential Loan‐To‐Value Ratios," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 503-530, May.
    303. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2008. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," Working Papers 006-08, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
    304. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.
    305. Qiong Li & Zhiwei Wang, 2010. "The Taylor rules and macroeconomic fluctuation in China: 1994–2006," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 232-253, June.
    306. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    307. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    308. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    309. Faia, Ester, 2016. "Sovereign Risk, Bank Funding and Investors’ Pessimism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11340, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    310. Enrique Martínez García & Diego Vilán & Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples," Globalization Institute Working Papers 105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    311. Charlotta Groth & Tracy Wheeler, 2008. "The behaviour of the MPC: Gradualism, inaction and individual voting patterns," Discussion Papers 21, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    312. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    313. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2012. "Real exchange rate dynamics in sticky-price models with capital," Working Paper Series 2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    314. David Navrátil, 2004. "Systematická složka měnové politiky ČNB v režimu cílování inflace [Systematic part of CNB's monetary policy in inflation targeting regime]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 623-636.
    315. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    316. Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "The informational effect of monetary policy and the case for policy commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    317. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    318. Hehui JIN, 2007. "Nominal Interest Rate Rules under Heterogeneous Beliefs," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 115(3), pages 403-442.
    319. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 74628, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2016.
    320. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    321. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    322. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2010. "Evolving Perceptions of Central Bank Credibility: The European Central Bank Experience," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 153-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    323. Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Real-time estimation of trend output and the illusion of interest rate smoothing," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.
    324. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics.
    325. Faia, Ester & Iliopulos, Eleni, 2011. "Financial openness, financial frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1976-1996.
    326. Faia, Ester, 2017. "Sovereign risk, bank funding and investors’ pessimism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 79-96.
    327. Alan S. Blinder, 2024. "Was Something Structurally Wrong at the FOMC?," Working Papers 338, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    328. Karel Brůna, 2006. "Glenn Rudebusch's View on the Targeting of Short-Term Interest Rates [Cílování krátkodobých úrokových sazeb pohledem Glenna Rudebusche]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 163-169.
    329. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    330. James Yetman, 2004. "Speed Limit Policies and Interest Rate Smoothing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(17), pages 1-6.
    331. Leon, Costas, 2006. "The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?," MPRA Paper 1650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    332. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    333. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    334. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
    335. Osama D. Sweidan, 2011. "Monetary policy inertia: case of Jordan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 144-155, May.
    336. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Persistence and the Role of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Inertia in Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 300, Central Bank of Chile.
    337. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 9274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    338. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    339. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14830, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    340. Mukherjee, Sanchita, 2011. "Does the level of capital openness explain “fear of floating” amongst the inflation targeting countries?," MPRA Paper 30289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    341. Bayar Omer, 2014. "Temporal aggregation and estimated monetary policy rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 553-577, January.
    342. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, July.
    343. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Sethudurai, Raja, 2013. "Non-Linear Taylor Rule through Threshold Estimation," MPRA Paper 44844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    344. Favero, Carlo A. & Carriero, Andrea & Kaminska, Iryna, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4301, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    345. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    346. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    347. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    348. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan-Miguel, 2013. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1852-1871.
    349. Florio, Anna, 2006. "Asymmetric interest rate smoothing: The Fed approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 190-195, November.
    350. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the eurozone," Working Papers 0827, Banco de España.
    351. Fendel, Ralf, 2004. "Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,24, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    352. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    353. Crespi, Fabrizio & Mandas, Marco & Migliavacca, Milena, 2025. "European banks’ interest margins and monetary policy: Evidence of a stickiness phenomenon," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    354. Lizardo Radhames A. & Mollick Andre Varella, 2011. "The Impact of Chinese Purchases of U.S. Government Debt on the Treasury Yield Curve," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, December.
    355. Tomura, Hajime, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs and housing-market boom-bust cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 735-755.
    356. Wouter Botzen, W.J. & Marey, Philip S., 2006. "Does the ECB respond to the stock market?," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    357. Auray, Stéphane & Fève, Patrick, 2008. "On the observational (non)equivalence of money growth and interest rate rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 801-816, September.
    358. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    359. Reiner Franke, 2018. "Competitive moment matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 201-239, July.
    360. Karel Brůna, 2009. "Měnová politika a predikce variability úrokových sazeb na peněžním trhu [Monetary policy and prediction of variability]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3), pages 361-382.
    361. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    362. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    363. Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
    364. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    365. Yash P. Mehra & Brian D. Minton, 2007. "A Taylor rule and the Greenspan era," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 229-250.
    366. Ferland, René & Gauthier, Geneviève & Lalancette, Simon, 2010. "A regime-switching term structure model with observable state variables," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-109, June.
    367. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Habit formation and its implications for small open economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 11, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    368. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.
    369. Christian Grimme & Radek Šauer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Auswirkungen möglicher Währungskonflikte auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 109, February.
    370. Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire A., 2015. "Estimating fiscal policy reaction functions: The role of model specification," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 113-128.
    371. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
    372. Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2022. "Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9974, CESifo.
    373. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Interest rate rules and inflation risks in a macro‐finance model," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 416-440, September.
    374. Henry W. Chappell & Rob Roy McGregor, 2017. "The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1132-1146, March.
    375. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    376. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    377. Christian R. Proano, 2009. "Heterogenous Behavioral Expectations, FX Fluctuations and Dynamic Stability in a Stylized Two-Country Macroeconomic Model," IMK Working Paper 03-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    378. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    379. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    380. Podpiera, Jirí, 2008. "The role of ad hoc factors in policy rate settings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1003-1010, September.
    381. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy: Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 300, Econometric Society.
    382. Pang, Ke & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2024. "Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    383. Franke, Reiner, 2013. "Competitive Moment Matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian Model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79988, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    384. Lei, Chengyao & Lu, Zhe & Zhang, Chengsi, 2015. "News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 644-653.
    385. Kevin J. Lansing & Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Forward-Looking Behavior and the Optimality of the Taylor Rule," Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    386. Adam Altar-Samuel, 2008. "Robust Monetary Policy," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 21, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    387. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    388. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    389. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    390. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    391. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
    392. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2017. "(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6546, CESifo.
    393. Ayse Kaya & Stephen Golub & Mark Kuperberg & Feng Lin, 2019. "The Federal Reserve'S Dual Mandate And The Inflation‐Unemployment Tradeoff," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 641-651, October.
    394. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Jochen Güntner & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif & Ra, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2018: Gewitterwolken am deutschen Konjunkturhimmel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 33-87, June.
    395. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    396. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    397. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 255-278, August.
    398. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
    399. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2008. "Nonlinearities in Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function: the case of asymmetric preferences," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151356590, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    400. Kano, Takashi, 2024. "Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    401. Ralf M. Fendel & Michael R. Frenkel, 2006. "Five Years Of Single European Monetary Policy In Practice: Is The Ecb Rule‐Based?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 106-115, January.
    402. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    403. Feve, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Poilly, Celine, 2007. "Monetary policy dynamics in the Euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 97-102, July.
    404. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    405. William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    406. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated Sticky Price Model of the Euro Area," Working papers 126, Banque de France.
    407. Carlsson Mikael & Westermark Andreas, 2008. "Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-61, October.
    408. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Interest rate forecasts: a pathology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    409. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    410. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    411. Podpiera, Jiri­, 2008. "Monetary policy inertia reconsidered: Evidence from endogenous interest rate trajectory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 238-240, August.
    412. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    413. Ondřej Čížek, 2015. "Makroekonometrický model eurozóny [Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 279-299.
    414. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    415. Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 412-424.
    416. Tae-Hwan Kima & Paul Mizena & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Predicting Directional Changes in Interest Rates: Gains from Using Information from Monetary Indicators," Discussion Papers 07/07, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    417. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "A New-Keynesian model of the yield curve with learning dynamics: A Bayesian evaluation," MPRA Paper 34461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2011.
    418. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2009. "Testing the structural interpretation of the price puzzle with a cost channel model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2009, Bank of Finland.
    419. Carl E. Walsh, 2015. "Day Two Keynote Address: Goals and Rules in Central Bank Design," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 295-352, September.
    420. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    421. Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2015. "Gradualism in Monetary Policy: A Time-Consistency Problem?," NBER Working Papers 21569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    422. Jan Žácek, 2019. "Financial Variables in a Policy Rule: Does It Bring Macroeconomic Benefits?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 122-148, April.
    423. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    424. Driffill, John & Rotondi, Zeno & Savona, Paolo & Zazzara, Cristiano, 2006. "Monetary policy and financial stability: What role for the futures market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-112, April.
    425. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    426. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    427. Faia, Ester, 2011. "Credit risk transfers and the macroeconomy," Kiel Working Papers 1677, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    428. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    429. Siddhartha Chib & Michael Dueker & Anatoliy Belaygorod, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Estimated DSGE Models with Indeterminacy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 357, Society for Computational Economics.
    430. Marcus Drometer & Thomas Siemsen & Sebastian Watzka, 2013. "The Monetary Policy of the ECB: A Robin Hood Approach?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4178, CESifo.
    431. David Cobham, 2006. "Using Taylor Rules to Assess the Relative Activism of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0602, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    432. Young Se Kim & Gwi Hwan Seol, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 360-378, July.
    433. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    434. Scott C. Borger & James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    435. Franke, Reiner & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2015. "Moment matching versus Bayesian estimation: Backward-looking behaviour in a New-Keynesian baseline model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 126-154.
    436. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo.
    437. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    438. Franke, Reiner & Flaschel, Peter & Proano, Christian R., 2006. "Wage-price dynamics and income distribution in a semi-structural Keynes-Goodwin model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 452-465, December.
    439. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2007. "Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements," IMF Working Papers 2007/185, International Monetary Fund.
    440. H. E. Cha & Raymond Jay Lim, 2024. "Model‐based estimation in monetary policy inertia and it's another possibility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2077-2094, April.
    441. Pamela Hall, 2011. "Is there any evidence of a Greenspan put?," Working Papers 2011-06, Swiss National Bank.
    442. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
    443. Yash P. Mehra, 2001. "The Taylor principle, interest rate smoothing and Fed policy in the 1970s and the 1980s," Working Paper 01-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    444. Boris Hofmann & Cristina Manea & Benoit Mojon, 2024. "Targeted Taylor rules: some evidence and theory," BIS Working Papers 1234, Bank for International Settlements.
    445. Anna Florio, 2020. "Term structure and interest rate stabilization policies in the Greenspan era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 345-355, July.
    446. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    447. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    448. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    449. Marjan Petreski, 2011. "A Markov Switch to Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Peggers with a Focus on the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 57-75.
    450. Goodhart, Charles, 2015. "The interest rate conditioning assumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    451. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
    452. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
    453. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    454. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    455. Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Extracting the expected path of monetary policy from futures rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    456. Yosra Baaziz & Moez Labidi, 2016. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: An Essay in the Comparative Study on Egyptian and Tunisian Central Banks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.
    457. Zhu Yanli & Chen Haiqiang & Lin Ming, 2019. "Threshold models with time-varying threshold values and their application in estimating regime-sensitive Taylor rules," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(5), pages 1-17, December.

  52. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Amano, Robert, 2007. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 26-31, January.
    2. Haicheng Shu & Peter Spencer, 2023. "Oil prices in the real economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 878-897, September.
    3. Brad E. Strum, 2010. "Inflation persistence, backward-looking firms, and monetary policy in an input-output economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Nemla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is there an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5965, CESifo.
    6. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2021. "Monetary Policy and House Price Volatility," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 359-379, December.
    7. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    8. Diana N. Weymark, 2003. "Economic Structure, Policy Objectives, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy at Low Inflation Rates," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0310, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    9. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. "Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    10. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    11. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Optimal policy perturbations," Economics Working Papers 1716, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Keiichi Morimoto, 2009. "Inflation Inertia and Optimal Delegation of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 09-05, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Papers 06-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning About a Shift in Trend Output: Implications for Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Paper Series 2000-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Ilek, David & Ilek, Alex, 2007. "The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel," MPRA Paper 4704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    18. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
    20. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    22. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
    23. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    24. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
    25. F Alexandre & P Bacao, 2006. "Investment and Non-fundamental Movements in Asset Prices: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 65-95, March.
    26. Guender, Alfred V., 2002. "Optimal and efficient monetary policy rules in a forward-looking model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-49, March.
    27. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-M?ller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    28. Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Are contemporary central banks transparent about economic models and objectives and what difference does it make?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 15-36.
    29. Lam Jean-Paul, 2010. "The Importance of Commitment in the New Keynesian Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    30. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    31. Jonathan Benchimol & Lahcen Bounader, 2018. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality," Globalization Institute Working Papers 336, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    32. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    33. Danfeng Kong, "undated". "Monetary policy rule for China - 1994-2006," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    34. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
    35. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    36. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 477, European Central Bank.
    37. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Söderström, Ulf & Leitemo, Kai & ,, 2006. "Methods for Robust Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 5638, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    39. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2011. "Transmission lags and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 565-578, April.
    40. Sra Chuenchoksan & Don Nakornthab & Surach Tanboon, 2008. "Uncertainty in the Estimation of Potential Output and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2008-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    41. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    42. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Using Taylor Rules as Efficiency Benchmarks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0043, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2001.
    43. Takeshi Kimura & Takushi Kurozumi, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June.
    45. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    46. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    47. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    48. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," ESSEC Working Papers WP1610, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    49. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2010. "Inflation targeting during asset and commodity price booms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 15-35, Spring.
    51. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    52. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    53. Kai Leitemo, 2004. "Targeting Inflation by Forecast Feedback Rules in Small Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 18, Society for Computational Economics.
    54. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
    55. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    56. Alex Cukierman, 2009. "The Limits of Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 1-37, February.
    57. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2003. "Information Variables for Monetary Policy in a Small Structural Model of the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4125, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    58. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Why Are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 160, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    59. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks," Working Paper Series 2003-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    60. Jonathan Benchimol, 2024. "Central Bank Objectives, Monetary Policy Rules, and Limited Information," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2024.04, Bank of Israel.
    61. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    62. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    63. Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David & Hördahl, Peter, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 405, European Central Bank.
    64. Jarkko Jääskelä & Tony Yates, 2005. "Monetary policy and data uncertainty," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 281, Bank of England.
    65. Konstantinos D. Mavromatis, 2009. "Nonlinearities in the Real Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy: Interest Rate Rules Reconsidered," Working Papers 2009-4, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    66. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Nominal Wage Indexation, Quasi‐Equilibria And Real Wage Dynamics," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 279-294, July.
    67. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve In A Time-Varying Coefficient Environment: Some European Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-166, April.
    68. Eric Swanson, 2000. "On Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1085, Econometric Society.
    69. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    70. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "¿De qué forma afectan las revisiones de datos a la evaluación y conducción de la política monetaria?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 369-405, octubre-d.
    71. Noha Emara, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Inflation Volatility and Institutions," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(1), pages 5-27, January.
    72. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    73. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61, pages 289-303.
    74. Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2020. "A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation," Working Papers 1171, Barcelona School of Economics.
    75. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    76. Robert J. Tetlow, 2015. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: "Robust" Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 113-155, March.
    77. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
    78. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q I), pages 5-38.
    79. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    80. Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003. "Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    81. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: Is there a puzzle?," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    82. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2008. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Working Paper 2007/10, Norges Bank.
    83. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    84. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    85. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2008. "Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 77-118, September.
    86. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    87. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo.
    88. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco manzo, 2005. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Macroeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    89. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    90. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising microfoundations for observed inflation persistence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    91. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Working Papers 57, Bank of Greece.
    92. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
    93. Chen, Huiying, 2020. "Nominal GDP targeting, real economic activity and inflation stabilization in a new Keynesian framework," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 53-63.
    94. Paolo ZAGAGLIA, 2002. "Matlab Implementation of the AIM Algorithm: A Beginner's Guide," Working Papers 169, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    95. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    96. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    97. Henning Weber, 2012. "Product Replacement Bias in Inflation and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 255-299, March.
    98. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Does Macroeconomics Help Us To Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2849, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    99. Guy Debelle, 2001. "The Case for Inflation Targeting in East Asian Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.),Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    100. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    101. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    102. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    103. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    104. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2002. "Regional Price Adjustment in a Monetary Union," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-077/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    105. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    106. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden," Working Papers 114, National Institute of Economic Research.
    107. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    108. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Output gaps and monetary policy at low interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q I).
    109. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2012. "Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 238-264, March.
    110. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    111. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2007. "Discretion and the transmission lags of monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland.
    112. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    113. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2002. "On (Sub) Optimal Monetary Policy Rules under Untied Fiscal Hands," Research Papers in Economics 2002:17, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    114. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    115. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    116. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    117. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    118. Rafael Domenech & Mayte Ledo & David Taguas, 2001. "A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU," Working Papers 0102, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    119. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 03/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    120. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    121. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    122. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    123. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 2009/101, International Monetary Fund.
    124. Adam – Nelu Altăr-Samuel, 2008. "Robust Monetary Policy," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(2), pages 19-28, June.
    125. Claudia Arguedas Gonzales, 2004. "Las tasas de interés en moneda nacional y la inflación: una revisión de la Hipótesis de Fisher para Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 325-341, octubre-d.
    126. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    127. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    128. Boris Cournède & Diego Moccero, 2009. "Is there a Case for Price-level Targeting?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 721, OECD Publishing.
    129. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Minding the speed limit," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may30.
    130. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    131. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2008. "Examining bias in estimators of linear rational expectations models under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 375-395, April.
    132. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Working Papers 2009-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    133. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    134. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    135. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," Working Papers 316, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    136. Laurence H. Meyer & Eric T. Swanson & Volker W. Wieland, 2001. "NAIRU uncertainty and nonlinear policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    137. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    138. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    139. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    140. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    141. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    142. Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Targeting Inflation with a Prominent Role for Money," Working Paper Series 123, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    143. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, December.
    144. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    145. Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 407-434, November.
    146. Traficante, Guido, 2012. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy in small open economy," Dynare Working Papers 22, CEPREMAP.
    147. Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    148. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    149. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    150. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2009. "The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit," Policy Briefs PB09-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    151. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    152. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open‐Economy Inflation‐Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 35-64, February.
    153. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    154. Alex Cukierman, 2007. "The limits of transparency," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    155. Alfred Guender & Yu Xie, 2007. "Is there an exchange rate channel in the forward-looking Phillips curve? A theoretical and empirical investigation," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 5-28.
    156. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    157. Diana N. Weymark & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Quantifying Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response in the United States," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000321, UCLA Department of Economics.
    158. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
    159. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2017. "Monetary Rule, Central Bank Loss and Household’s Welfare: an Empirical Investigation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    160. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    161. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    162. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    163. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    164. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Financial frictions and robust monetary policy in the models of New Keynesian framework," BCAM Working Papers 1701, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    165. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    166. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    167. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 806, European Central Bank.
    168. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    169. Roisland, Oistein, 2001. "Institutional Arrangements for Monetary Policy When Output Is Persistent," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 994-1014, November.
    170. Fernando Alexandre, 2003. "Monetary policy, investment and non-fundamental shocks," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 296, Society for Computational Economics.
    171. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2021. "The impact of hedging on risk-averse agents’ output decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    172. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
    173. Julio Cesar Costa Pinto & Joaquim Pinto de Andrade, 2011. "Comparaçãoentre técnicas estatísticas naestimação de modelos Novo-Keynesianos aplicadosao Brasil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    174. Jean-Paul Lam & Florian Pelgrin, 2004. "The Implications of Transmission and Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation," Staff Working Papers 04-37, Bank of Canada.
    175. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 183, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    176. Bhansali, Vineer & Dorsten, Matthew P. & Wise, Mark B., 2009. "Asymmetric monetary policy and the yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1408-1425, December.
    177. DI BARTOLOMEO Giovanni & MERLEVEDE Bruno & PLASMANS Joseph & VAN AARLE Bas, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regimes with Hybrid Output Gaps and Inflation Rates with an Application to EU-Accession Countries," EcoMod2003 330700043, EcoMod.
    178. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    179. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    180. Dennis, Richard & Söderström, Ulf, 2002. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 139, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    181. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    182. Chen, Huiying, 2021. "On the welfare implications of nominal GDP targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    183. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    184. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2003. "The challenges of the "new economy" for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 213-233, Bank for International Settlements.
    185. Peter Mcadam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Arrow–Calvo Price Staggering," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 556-581, December.
    186. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    187. Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Uncertainty and the open economy: a view through two different lenses," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 235, Econometric Society.
    188. Jean-Paul Lam & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "The Implications of Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation," Working Paper series 39_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    189. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 119, Bank of England.
    190. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    191. Jim Dolmas & Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Measuring core inflation: notes from a 2007 Dallas Fed conference," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May.
    192. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    193. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
    194. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    195. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 49, Society for Computational Economics.
    196. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    197. Stracca, Livio, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 600, European Central Bank.
    198. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 103-125.
    199. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York.
    200. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Bernoth, Kerstin & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    201. Brad E. Strum, 2009. "Monetary Policy in a Forward‐Looking Input–Output Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 619-650, June.
    202. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is Chinese monetary policy forward-looking?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    203. Karfakis, Ioannis, 2021. "The predictive content of public debt for real output expansions and contractions over three centuries: A Markov switching analysis for the UK," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    204. SGB Henry & Mathan Satchi & David Vines, 2006. "The Effect of Discounting on Policy Choices in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 266-282, January.
    205. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2001. "UK Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The Role of Output Gap Mismeasurement," CEPR Discussion Papers 2999, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    206. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    207. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2004. "Effectiveness of history-dependent monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 330-361, September.
    208. Ahsan Ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik & Ghulam Saghir, 2007. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 395-404.
    209. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    210. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2011. "Bubbles In Exchange Rates And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 29-50, February.
    211. Ignazio Angeloni & Günter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November.
    212. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    213. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    214. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics," Working papers 19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    215. Vredin, Anders & Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    216. Castelnuovo Efrem, 2006. "The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    217. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/183, International Monetary Fund.
    218. Kevin J. Lansing & Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Forward-Looking Behavior and the Optimality of the Taylor Rule," Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    219. Adam Altar-Samuel, 2008. "Robust Monetary Policy," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 21, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    220. Philip Liu, 2006. "Gains from Commitment Policy for a Small Open Economy: The Case of New Zealand," CAMA Working Papers 2006-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    221. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    222. Hyuk Rhee & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2012. "Targeting Rules for an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 447-471, July.
    223. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is inflation persistence different in reality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 55-58.
    224. Malik, Hamza, 2005. "Price Level vs. Nominal Income Targeting: Aggregate Demand Shocks and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006.
    225. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    226. Kirdan Lees, 2006. "What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    227. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines, 2004. "Monetary Union: Fiscal Stabilisation in the Face of Asymmetric Shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 86, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    228. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
    229. Bursian, Dirk, 2016. "Solving RE models with discontinuous policy rules – an application to minimum wage setting in Germany," Discussion Papers 35/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    230. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    231. Costas Karfakis & Eftychia Karfaki, 2018. "Is the financial cycle a leading indicator of real output during expansions and contractions? A quantile analysis for Greece," Discussion Paper Series 2018_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2018.
    232. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 889-911, July.
    233. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
    234. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    235. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "Information variables for monetary policy in an estimated structural model of the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1256-1270, May.
    236. Libich Jan, 2011. "Inflation Nutters? Modelling the Flexibility of Inflation Targeting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, June.
    237. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    238. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
    239. Diana N. Weymark & Mototsugu Shintani, 2004. "Measuring Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response: A General Approach Applied to US Data 1966 - 2001," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0424, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    240. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Assessing Different Drivers of the GreatModeration in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0025, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    241. Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2005. "Inflation, Price Level and Hybrid Rules under Inflation Uncertainty," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 141-156, March.
    242. Peter D. Spencer, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility in a Macro‐Finance Model of the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961–2004," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1177-1215, September.
    243. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    244. Jarkko Jääskelä & Jack McKeown, 2005. "Misperceptions and monetary policy in a New Keynesian model," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 278, Bank of England.
    245. Olofin, S.O. & Olubusoye, O.E. & Mordi, C.N.O. & Salisu, A.A. & Adeleke, A.I. & Orekoya, S.O. & Olowookere, A.E. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2014. "A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-313.
    246. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Srinivasan, Naveen & Sofat, Prakriti, 2006. "UK Inflation Persistence: Policy or Nature?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5608, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    247. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
    248. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Macro volatility in a model of the UK Gilt edged bond market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    249. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    250. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    251. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.
    252. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    253. Evan F. Koenig, 2013. "Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 57-82, June.
    254. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yadollah Dadgar & Rouhollah Nazari, 2019. "Iranian inflation: peristence and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 398-408, April.
    255. Richard Mash, 2002. "Monetary Policy with an Endogenous Capital Stock when Inflation is Persistent," Economics Series Working Papers 108, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    256. Leong, Kenneth, 2002. "Reconciling the new keynesian model with observed persistence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2002, Bank of Finland.
    257. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2008. "Fiscal Policy under Balanced Budget and Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 0803, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

  53. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch, Glenn, 2000. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2522, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Karoglou, Michail & Binner, Jane M., 2019. "Structural changes and the role of monetary aggregates in the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 100-107.
    2. Buncic, Daniel & Lentner, Philipp, 2016. "The term structure of interest rates in an estimated New Keynesian policy model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-150.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
    4. Schaling, E. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2004. "Heterogeneous Information about the Term Structure of Interest rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 2004-14, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
    7. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2006. "What if the Fed increased the weight of the stock price gap in its reaction function?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 725-737, October.
    8. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 165-186.
    9. Wróblewska, Justyna, 2025. "Bayesian analysis of seasonally cointegrated VAR models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 55-70.
    10. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    11. Meixing Dai, 2011. "Règle du taux d’intérêt et politique d’assouplissement quantitatif avec un rôle pour la monnaie," Working Papers of BETA 2011-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    12. Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2009. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 15270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
    14. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2005. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0506017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. Ugomori, Takayuki, 2007. "The relative efficiency of various targeting regimes in Japan: A simulation study with linear quadratic dynamic programming," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-302, March.
    18. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    19. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 2009. "The Gambia: Demand for Broad Money and Implications for Monetary Policy Conduct," IMF Working Papers 2009/192, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    21. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Explaining ECB and Fed interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Enrique L�pez Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Inter�s Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    23. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    25. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    26. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    27. Dominique Pepin, 2004. "The role of the "Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate" in monetary policy," Working Papers hal-00965020, HAL.
    28. Svensson, Lars & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Seminar Papers 688, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    29. Manfred Borchert, "undated". "The Impact of Banking Behaviour on Monetary Strategy in Europe," Working Papers 201160, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    30. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
    31. Richard Mash, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Economics Series Working Papers 109, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    33. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    34. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    35. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    36. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    37. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    38. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
    39. Canova, Fabio & Menz, Tobias, 2010. "Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8107, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    40. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2016. "Debt deflation, financial market stress and regime change: Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    41. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    42. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB policy reaction function," Munich Reprints in Economics 19941, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    43. Karl Whelan, 2002. "An overview of monetary policy in the US," Open Access publications 10197/205, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    44. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Central Bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-50, March.
    45. Garratt, Anthony & Vahey, Shaun & Mitchell, James, 2010. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7742, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    46. Borchert, Manfred, 2005. "The impact of banking behaviour on monetary strategy in Europe," Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung 13, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    47. Pierre Ghislain BATILA NGOUALA KOMBO, 2025. "Financial stability and monetary stability: the role of macroprudential and monetary policy coordination in CEMAC," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 61, pages 97-109.
    48. Monadjemi Mehdi S., 2011. "Monetary Policy and Oil Prices," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, September.
    49. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS, 2009. "Money growth rule and macro-financial stability under inflation-targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    50. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    51. Heather M. Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Financial Data for the Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 152, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    52. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," CAMA Working Papers 2007-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. Bruckner, Matthias & Schabert, Andreas, 2006. "Can money matter for interest rate policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2823-2857, December.
    54. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    55. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "Comportement du banquier central en environnement incertain," Working papers 241, Banque de France.
    56. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    57. el-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2011. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    58. Luis Pacheco, 2008. "Asset Prices in Monetary Policy Rules: Should they stay or should they go?," Working Papers 4/2008, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    59. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olofin Sodik Adejonwo, 2019. "Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(2), pages 171-184, December.
    60. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    61. Mario Nigrinis Ospina, 2004. "Es lineal la Curva de Phillips en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    62. Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," Research Working Paper RWP 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    63. Krause Montalbert, Stefan, 2016. "Better off without the euro? Evaluating monetary policy and macroeconomic performance for the u.k. and sweden," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 34(2), December.
    64. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2008. "Long Run Inflation Indicators – Why the ECB got it Right," Working Papers 2008:17, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    65. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    66. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph H. & Martin, Antoine, 2009. "Why does overnight liquidity cost more than intraday liquidity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1236-1246, June.
    67. Borivoje D. Krušković & Tina Maričić, 2015. "Monetary Targeting," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(3), pages 137-146.
    68. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(2), pages 231-252, June.
    69. Borchert, Manfred, 2003. "The changing character of the European banking market," Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung 1, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    70. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2006. "Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 457-477, April.
    71. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1842, CESifo.
    73. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    74. Paolo PAESANI, 2003. "Will the Monetary Pillar Stay? A Few Lessons from the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/10, European University Institute.
    75. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    76. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    77. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    78. Joe Haslag & R.W. Hafer & Garett Jones, 2003. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Output," Working Papers 0311, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    79. Alsterlind, Jan & Markowski, Alek & Nilsson, Kristian, 2004. "Modelling the Foreign Sector in a Macroeconometric Model of Sweden," Working Papers 88, National Institute of Economic Research.
    80. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Nguyen, Chau N., 2017. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    81. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, December.
    82. Tachibana, Minoru, 2004. "Central Banks' preferences in Japan, the UK, and the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 81-93, January.
    83. Pardo, S. & Rautureau, N. & Vallée, T., 2011. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2761-2775.
    84. Cristina BADARAU & Andreea CURMEI-SEMENESCU, 2017. "Taylor rule in a policy-mix analysis for open heterogeneous monetary unions," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 9(2), pages 063-081, December.
    85. Juha Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Jouko Vilmunen, 2007. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 113, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    86. Taylor, John-B, 2001. "Low Inflation, Deflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 35-51, February.
    87. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    88. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Post-Print halshs-00943753, HAL.
    89. Oliver Grimm & Stefan Ried, 2007. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/67, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    90. Azhar Iqbal & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 987-1014.
    91. Favero, Carlo A. & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    92. John Huston & Roger Spencer, 2005. "International Monetary Policy: A Global Taylor Rule," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 125-134, May.
    93. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2005. "Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability," MPRA Paper 13864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Borchert, Manfred, 2004. "The impact of banking behaviour on monetary strategy," Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung 5, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    95. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    97. Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2005. "Communication, learning and optimal monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 33c69063-eed7-4938-9f51-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    98. Poilly, Céline, 2010. "Does money matter for the identification of monetary policy shocks: A DSGE perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2159-2178, October.
    99. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Stock of Money and Why You Should Care," MPRA Paper 11455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    100. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    101. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Comment on: The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1061-1070, July.
    102. Stracca, Livio, 2001. "Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 79, European Central Bank.
    103. Svatopluk Kapounek & Lubor Lacina, 2007. "Money supply growth and inflation - the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank [Růst nabídky peněz a inflace - měnová strategie Evropské centrální banky]," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 57-66.
    104. Wojnilower, Joshua, 2018. "On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-56.
    105. Arslan, Mesut Murat, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy in the Sticky Information Model of Price Adjustment: Inflation Targeting or Price-Level Targeting?," MPRA Paper 5271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    106. Sitikantha Pattanaik, 2008. "Oman's monetary policy transmission process under the fixed peg: some empirical puzzles," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 181-198.
    107. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    108. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. Franz Seitz & Karl‐Heinz Tödter, 2001. "How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 303-308, August.
    110. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    111. Chen, Changsheng & Girardin, Eric & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2017. "Global slack and open economy Phillips curves – A province-level view from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-87.
    112. Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Banking and the role of money in the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 87-94.
    113. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    114. Karfakis, Ioannis, 2021. "The predictive content of public debt for real output expansions and contractions over three centuries: A Markov switching analysis for the UK," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    115. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
    116. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Md. Said, Fathin Faezah & Jusoh, Mansor & Md. Thahir, Md. Zyadi, 2009. "Monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy," MPRA Paper 23949, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2010.
    117. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    118. Tobias Menz & Fabio Canova, 2015. "Does Money Matter in Shaping Domestic Business Cycles? An International Investigation (with appendices)," Working Papers 516, Barcelona School of Economics.
    119. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2002. "Macroeconomic models for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr19.
    120. Guglielmo maria Coporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The EURO and Inflation Uncertainty In The EMU," Working Papers 2005_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    121. Hendrickson, Joshua, 2010. "Redundancy or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal of Money," MPRA Paper 21477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    122. Meixing DAI, 2007. "A two-pillar strategy to keep inflation expectations at bay: A basic theoretical framework," Working Papers of BETA 2007-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    123. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    124. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
    125. Manfred Borchert, "undated". "The Changing Character of the European Banking Market," Working Papers 201169, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    126. Jose R. Sanchez-Fung, 2002. "Inflation targeting and monetary analysis in Chile and Mexico," Economics Discussion Papers 2002-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    127. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    128. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 419-430, April.
    129. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
    130. Sunirand, Pojanart, 2003. "The role of money in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: evidence from Thailand," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    131. Paolo Gelain, 2007. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule For the European Central Bank," EcoMod2007 23900028, EcoMod.
    132. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    133. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    134. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    135. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2009. "Perhaps the 1970s FOMC did what it said it did," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 842-855, September.
    136. Berger, Helge & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The information content of money in forecasting Euro area inflation," Discussion Papers 2008/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    137. Manfred Borchert, "undated". "The Impact of Banking Behaviour on Monetary Strategy," Working Papers 201166, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    138. Hafer, R.W. & Jones, Garett, 2008. "Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 609-616, June.
    139. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2010. "On the Sources of Euro Area Money Demand Stability. A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    140. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    141. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2004. "Heterogenous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4279, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    142. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    143. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    144. Ulf Söderström, 2005. "Targeting Inflation with a Role for Money," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 577-596, November.
    145. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    146. Richard Mash, 2002. "Monetary Policy with an Endogenous Capital Stock when Inflation is Persistent," Economics Series Working Papers 108, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    147. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2001. "Response to Seitz and Tödter, ‘How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson’," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 309-312, August.

  54. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luigi Paciello, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Doubts and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 1024, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2010.
    3. Nautz, Dieter & Netšunajev, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2016. "The anchoring of inflation expectations in the short and in the long run," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
    5. Aoki, Kosuke, 2006. "Optimal commitment policy under noisy information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 81-109, January.
    6. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2021. "Monetary Policy and House Price Volatility," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 359-379, December.
    7. Enrico S. Levrero, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers Series 88, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    8. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," International Finance Discussion Papers 804, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Papers 06-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    13. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2010. "Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 145-176.
    14. Jinill Kim & Jesper Lindé & Ricardo Nunes & Davide Debortoli, 2017. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?," Working Papers 958, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Robert Barsky & Christoph E. Boehm & Christopher L. House & Miles Kimball, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Durable Goods," Working Paper Series WP-2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    16. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2009. "Sources of Uncertainty in Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 12, pages 451-509, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    18. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2019. "Shock matters for estimating monetary policy rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 54-56.
    19. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2003. "Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 817-839, May.
    20. James Yetman, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Potential Output Uncertainty, and Optimal Learning," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    21. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    22. Charemza, Wojciech & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Central banks’ forecasts and their bias: Evidence, effects and explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 804-817.
    23. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Takeshi Kimura & Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policymaking under Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 89-128, November.
    24. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Explaining ECB and Fed interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 25929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    26. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    27. Mr. Robert Tchaidze, 2004. "The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2004/213, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2009. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 206-215, April.
    29. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Ralf Fendel, 2004. "Perspektiven und Grenzen der Verwendung geldpolitischer Regeln," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(2), pages 169-192, May.
    31. Stephen J. Perez, 2002. "Monetary Policy Does Matter: Control Causality and Superexogeneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 473-486, December.
    32. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 477, European Central Bank.
    33. Francesca Rondina, 2015. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona School of Economics.
    34. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2007. "How committees reduce the volatility of policy rates," DULBEA Working Papers 07-11.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    35. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Rafi Melnick, 2005. "A peek into the Governor's chamber: the Israeli case," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21.
    37. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Monetary Policy and Cautious Prediction of the Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/40, European University Institute.
    38. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Dick van Dijk & Richard Paap, 2011. "Bayesian Forecasting of Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-093/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    39. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Alan S. Blinder & John Morgan, 2008. "Leadership in Groups: A Monetary Policy Experiment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 117-150, December.
    41. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia: Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2004/166, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    44. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
    45. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    46. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 147-154, July.
    47. Frederico Finan & Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Bodenstein Martin R. & Armenter Roc, 2009. "Of Nutters and Doves," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, September.
    49. John C. Williams, 2013. "A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2013-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    50. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
    51. Eric Swanson, 2000. "On Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1085, Econometric Society.
    52. L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    53. Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 885-906, August.
    55. Felipe Morandé Lavín & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers wp285, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    56. Melecky, Martin & Rodrıguez Palenzuela, Diego & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 10545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    59. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    60. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    61. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in an estimated model with labor market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 983-1006, July.
    62. Martin, C. & Milas, C., 2004. "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy," Working Papers 04/05, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    63. Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003. "Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    64. Bodo Herzog, 2021. "Hidden Blemish in European Law: Judgements on Unconventional Monetary Programmes," Laws, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, March.
    65. Wojciech Charemza & Daniel Ladley, 2012. "MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/23, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2013.
    66. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    67. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    68. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco manzo, 2005. "Policy Uncertainty, Symbiosis, and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Conservativeness," Macroeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Hakan Kara, 2004. "Monetary Policy under Imperfect Commitment : Reconciling Theory with Evidence," Working Papers 0415, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    70. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    71. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Revisiting The Determinants Of Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0241, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    72. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    73. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July.
    74. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2005. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 46, Society for Computational Economics.
    75. P.A. Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in an Empirical Macro Model with Asymmetric Information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 146, Society for Computational Economics.
    76. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    77. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    78. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    79. Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    80. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    81. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2003. "Robust European monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 889-894.
    82. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2008. "Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    83. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    84. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    85. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    86. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    87. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    88. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Paolo Surico, 2003. "Why are Federal Funds Rates so Smooth?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 39, Royal Economic Society.
    89. Rafael Domenech & Mayte Ledo & David Taguas, 2001. "A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU," Working Papers 0102, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    90. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    91. Özgür ERSİN & Melike BİLDİRİCİ, 2017. "A Nonlinear Analysis of Monetary Policy with Dominance Indices in Turkey: MS-VAR Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 22-46, December.
    92. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    93. KARA Hakan, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules under Imperfect Commitment: Reconciling Theory with Evidence," EcoMod2003 330700077, EcoMod.
    94. Charles Weise, 2004. "Alternative explanations for US inflation performance, 1961-2000," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 111, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    95. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    97. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    98. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2004. "Habit Formation and Interest Rate Smoothing," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    99. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
    100. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
    101. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    102. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    103. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    104. Luis Ceballos & Jens H. E. Christensen & Damian Romero, 2023. "Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 2024-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    105. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    106. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    107. Michael Scharnagl & Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz, 2010. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Money Growth? New Results for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-441, December.
    108. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    109. Cristina BADARAU & Andreea CURMEI-SEMENESCU, 2017. "Taylor rule in a policy-mix analysis for open heterogeneous monetary unions," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 9(2), pages 063-081, December.
    110. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2010. "From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 450-468, December.
    111. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2021. "Is the future really observable? A practical approach to model monetary policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1189-1223, September.
    112. Vincent Reinhart, 2003. "Making monetary policy in an uncertain world," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-274.
    113. Mariusz Gorajski, 2016. "Robust monetary policy in a linear model of the polish economy: is the uncertainty in the model responsible for the interest rate smoothing effect?," Lodz Economics Working Papers 1/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    114. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    115. Boehm, Christoph E. & House, Christopher L., 2019. "Optimal Taylor rules when targets are uncertain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 274-286.
    116. Pedro Pablo Álvarez Lois, 2003. "Capacity utilization and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0306, Banco de España.
    117. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    118. Levin, Andrew & Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3812, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    119. Oleksandr BANDURA, 2021. "Optimization Of Macroeconomic Policy And Stabilization Of Cyclical Economic Dynamics," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 102-124.
    120. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    121. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
    122. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction to uncertainty in Japan: Evidence from a quantile‐on‐quantile interest rate rule," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2041-2053, April.
    123. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty In A Simple Microfounded Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 257-268, April.
    124. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    125. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2008. "From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects," MPRA Paper 10844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    126. William H.Greene & Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 2013_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2013.
    127. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    128. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    129. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 1, pages 001-025, Central Bank of Chile.
    130. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    131. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    132. Anindya Sen & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "On the International Spillover Effects of Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 541-554, July.
    133. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
    134. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    135. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    136. Richard Dennis, 2003. "New Keynesian Optimal Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment," Working Paper Series 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    137. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    138. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 2005/089, International Monetary Fund.
    139. Cateau, Gino, 2007. "Monetary policy under model and data-parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2083-2101, October.
    140. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
    141. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2005. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 752-767, April.
    142. Jamie Gascoigne & Paul Turner, 2003. "Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2003007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003.
    143. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    144. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    145. Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 169, European Central Bank.
    146. Karel Bruna & Quang Van Tran, 2018. "Inflation Targeting and Variability of Money Market Interest Rates Under a Zero Lower Bound," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 519-539, December.
    147. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    148. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
    149. Nguyen Anh D. M. & Pavlidis Efthymios G. & Peel David A., 2018. "Modeling changes in US monetary policy with a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-17, December.
    150. Walsh, Carl E, 2003. "Accountability, Transparency, and Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 829-849, October.
    151. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    152. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    153. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    154. Brian Ironside & Robert J. Tetlow, 2006. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    155. Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, "undated". "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    156. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2013. "The Assessment Of Parameter Uncertainty In A Vector Error Correction Model For Romania," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 124-134, December.
    157. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    158. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Investor Base Dynamics and Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0234, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    159. Anh Nguyen & Efthymios Pavlidis & David Alan Peel, 2016. "Modeling changes in U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 127876159, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    160. Christou Christina & Naraidoo Ruthira & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Conventional and unconventional monetary policy reaction to uncertainty in advanced economies: evidence from quantile regressions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-17, June.
    161. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    162. Mr. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2001/184, International Monetary Fund.
    163. Nessen, Marianne, 2002. "Targeting inflation over the short, medium and long term," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 313-329, September.
    164. Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "U.K. Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 41, Bank of Lithuania.
    165. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    166. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Monetary policy committees and interest rate setting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 487-507, February.
    167. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    168. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    169. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    170. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    171. Fatemeh Labafi Feriz & Saeed Samadi & khadijeh Nasrollahi & Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi, 2018. "Robust Discretionary Monetary Policy under Cost-Push Shock Uncertainty of Iran’s Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(2), pages 503-526, Spring.
    172. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    173. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    174. Robert J. Tetlow, 2000. "Inflation targeting and target instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    175. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
    176. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    177. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    178. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 25-47.
    179. Hany Guirguis & Martin B. Schmidt, 2005. "Output Variability and the Money-Output Relationship," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 53-66, April.
    180. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2010. "Robust monetary policies in small open economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 350-373, April.
    181. Karel Brůna, 2009. "Měnová politika a predikce variability úrokových sazeb na peněžním trhu [Monetary policy and prediction of variability]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3), pages 361-382.
    182. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    183. Bruna, Karel & Tran, Quang Van, 2020. "The central banks’ ability to control variability of money market interest rates: The case of inflation targeting countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 384-402.
    184. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    185. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2008-64, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    186. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2013. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate and evaluating policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    187. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
    188. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
    189. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1298, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.
    190. Andersen, Torben M. & Beier, Niels C., 2005. "International transmission of transitory and persistent monetary shocks under imperfect information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 485-507, July.
    191. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Henning Weber, 2012. "Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 2012/006, International Monetary Fund.
    192. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real‐Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
    193. Herzog, Bodo, 2019. "Optimal policy under uncertainty and rational inattention," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 444-449.
    194. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September.
    195. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2008. "Generalized method of moments and inverse control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3113-3147, October.
    196. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    197. Mariusz Górajski, 2018. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Model of the Polish Economy: Is the Uncertainty Responsible for the Interest Rate Smoothing Effect?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 313-340, August.
    198. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2004. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    199. Wesche, Katrin, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    200. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2009. "Prudent monetary policy and prediction of the output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-230, June.
    201. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Commentary : challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-67.
    202. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    203. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 255-278, August.
    204. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    205. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    206. Alexander Perruchoud, 2009. "Estimating a Taylor Rule with Markov Switching Regimes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(2), pages 187-220, June.
    207. William B. English & William R. Nelson & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "Interpreting the significance of lagged interest rate in estimated monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    208. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    209. Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "Greenspan and the Greenbook," Economics Working Paper Archive 472, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    210. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    211. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    212. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
    213. Christopher J. Erceg & James Hebden & Michael T. Kiley & J. David López-Salido & Robert J. Tetlow, 2018. "Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    214. Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4114, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    215. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
    216. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may22.
    217. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    218. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    219. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    220. Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard, 2003. "Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 567-584, November.
    221. Jim Engle-Warnick & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2010. "An experimental test of Taylor-type rules with inexperienced central bankers," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(2), pages 146-166, June.
    222. Zhao, Mingjun, 2007. "Monetary policy under misspecified expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1278-1299, April.
    223. Jonathan H. Wright, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    224. Olalla, Myriam García & Gómez, Alejandro Ruiz, 2011. "Robust control and central banking behaviour," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1265-1278, May.
    225. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    226. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    227. Gabriel Srour, 2001. "Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates?," Staff Working Papers 01-17, Bank of Canada.
    228. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    229. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    230. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Manzo, 2008. "Fiscal Policy under Balanced Budget and Indeterminacy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 0803, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

  55. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2006. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms," NBER Working Papers 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, August.
    3. Mordecai Kurz & M. Motolese & G. Piccillo & H. Hu, 2015. "Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations," Working Papers 15-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    4. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    5. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Medel, Carlos A., 2017. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper 78439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eschenhof, Sabine, 2009. "Standard Taylor rules revisited: A cross country study for European countries," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 196, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    11. Pelin Ilbas, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area in a DSGE Framework," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    13. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Jounghyeon Kim, 2012. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in the Aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis: The Case of Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 28, pages 91-116.
    15. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    16. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Une estimation de la cible implicite d’inflation dans la zone euro," TSE Working Papers 09-137, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. "Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    18. Enrico S. Levrero, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers Series 88, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    19. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    20. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
    22. Wieland, Volker & Taylor, John B., 2010. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new model database," Working Paper Series 1261, European Central Bank.
    23. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2017. "The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 165-184, April.
    24. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Papers 06-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    25. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    26. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Sep), pages 613-626.
    29. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    30. Sergio Destefanis, 2003. "Measuring macroeconomic performance through a non-parametric Taylor curve," CSEF Working Papers 95, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    31. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    32. Maria Demertzis & Alexander F. Tieman, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainty: Robust Rules In Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 295-307, May.
    33. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    34. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
    35. Martha López P., 2003. "Efficient Policy Rule for Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 240, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    36. Ajax R. B. Moreira & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2015. "Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0100, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    37. Yunjong Eo & Denny Lie, 2020. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2007-2052, December.
    38. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    39. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    40. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
    41. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2012. "How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," NBP Working Papers 112, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    42. Jan Strasky, 2005. "Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    43. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2000. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank.
    44. Proaño, Christian R., 2012. "Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 220-235.
    45. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    46. Helge Berger & Ulrich Woitek, 1999. "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series 190, CESifo.
    47. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
    48. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
    49. Evgeniya Duzhak & Jody Hoff & Jane S. Lopus, 2021. "The Effects of the Chair the Fed Simulation on High School Students’ Knowledge," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(1), pages 74-89, March.
    50. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    51. Leonardo Leiderman & Hadas Bar-Or, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Transmission Mechanisms Under Inflation Targeting in Israel," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 71, Central Bank of Chile.
    52. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1241-1319, Elsevier.
    53. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2005. "Regime Shifts and the Stability of Backward Looking Phillips Curves in Open Economies," Macroeconomics 0506017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    54. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Andrew J. Filardo, 2000. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 85(Q III), pages 11-37.
    56. Siregar, Reza.Y. & Goo, Siwei, 2009. "Effectiveness and Commitment to Inflation Targeting Policy: Evidences from Indonesia and Thailand," MPRA Paper 17271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Offick, Sven & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Volatility effects of news shocks in New Keynesian models with optimal monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 2016-06, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    58. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    59. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    60. Ugomori, Takayuki, 2007. "The relative efficiency of various targeting regimes in Japan: A simulation study with linear quadratic dynamic programming," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-302, March.
    61. Andrew J. Filardo, 2001. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : some experimental results," Research Working Paper RWP 01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    62. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    63. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Applying Flexible Parameter Restrictions in Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression Models," Working Papers No 12/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    64. Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2019. "The Phillips Multiplier," Working Papers 1070, Barcelona School of Economics.
    65. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    66. Guender, Alfred V., 2002. "Optimal and efficient monetary policy rules in a forward-looking model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-49, March.
    67. Gerson Nhapulo & João Nicolau, 2017. "Assessing Nonlinear Dynamics of Central Bank Reaction Function: The Case of Mozambique," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 28-51, March.
    68. Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Enrique L�pez Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Inter�s Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    69. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    70. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19.
    71. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1265-1300, October.
    72. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy¤," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0608, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    73. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "US Monetary Policy Rules: the Case for Asymmetric Preferences," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 199, Royal Economic Society.
    74. Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, September.
    75. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    76. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    77. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    78. Danfeng Kong & Osamu Kamoike, "undated". "The stability condition of a forward looking Taylor rule," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    79. Nadia Saleem, 2010. "Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 51-76, Jul-Dec.
    80. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics.
    81. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May.
    82. Grégory Levieuge, 2005. "Politique monétaire et prix d'actifs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 317-355.
    83. C. Richard Higgins & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2025. "Changes in central bank leadership and inflation dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1440-1473, April.
    84. Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Operationalising Taylor-type Rules for the Indian Economy: Issues and Some Results (1992Q3 2001Q4)," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-07-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    85. Jondeau, Eric & Le Bihan, Herve, 2005. "Testing for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Additional international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-550, May.
    86. Ralf Fendel, 2004. "Perspektiven und Grenzen der Verwendung geldpolitischer Regeln," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(2), pages 169-192, May.
    87. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    88. Rodríguez,Gabriel, 2008. "Eficiencia de la política monetaria y la estabilidad de las preferencias del Banco Central. Evidencia empírica para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 15, pages 9-20.
    89. Qureshi, Irfan, "undated". "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," Economic Research Papers 269096, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    90. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Jul), pages 23-34.
    91. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    92. Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 477, European Central Bank.
    93. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    94. Piti Disyatat, 2005. "Inflation targeting, asset prices and financial imbalances: conceptualizing the debate," BIS Working Papers 168, Bank for International Settlements.
    95. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    96. Khalid, Norlin & Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Yussof, Izzuddin, 2014. "Testing a Non-Linear Model of Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 48(2), pages 19-27.
    97. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Timeless Perspective Vs Discretionary Monetary Policy in Forward-Looking Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2752, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    98. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a new Keynesian example," Economics Working Papers 2009-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    99. Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2015. "The perils of debt deflation in the euro area: A multi regime model," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-071, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    100. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June.
    101. René Lalonde, 2000. "Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine," Staff Working Papers 00-19, Bank of Canada.
    102. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    103. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 477, Stockholm School of Economics.
    104. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    106. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 164, Bank of England.
    107. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2006. "U.S. Inflation Dynamics: What Drives Them Over Different Frequencies?," IMF Working Papers 2006/159, International Monetary Fund.
    108. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Monetary Policy and Cautious Prediction of the Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/40, European University Institute.
    109. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2010. "Inflation targeting during asset and commodity price booms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 15-35, Spring.
    110. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    111. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    112. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    113. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    114. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    115. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    116. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    117. Lees, Kirdan, 2007. "How large are the gains to commitment policy and optimal delegation for New Zealand?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 959-975, December.
    118. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2014. "Perspective ale ţintirii inflaţiei [Perspectives of the Inflation Targeting]," MPRA Paper 52943, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jan 2014.
    119. John B. Taylor, 2018. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 18102, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    120. Javier G�mez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," Borradores de Economia 2854, Banco de la Republica.
    121. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, New Economic School (NES).
    122. Sheng Zhu & Ella Kavanagh & Niall O'Sullivan, 2021. "Constructing a financial conditions index for the United Kingdom: A comparative analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2976-2989, April.
    123. VanderHart, Peter G., 2009. "What is the best way to impede a central bank?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 784-797, August.
    124. Mehra, Yash P., 2001. "The bond rate and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 345-358.
    125. Edilean Kleber da Silva & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2010. "Central Bank Preferences And Monetary Rules Under The Inflation Targeting Regime In Brazil," Working Papers 07-2010, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    126. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    127. Q. Farooq Akram & Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist, 2006. "Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime," Working Paper 2006/08, Norges Bank.
    128. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    129. Pataracchia, Beatrice, 2011. "The spectral representation of Markov switching ARMA models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 11-15, July.
    130. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    131. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    132. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    133. John B. Taylor, 2002. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 2, pages 021-046, Central Bank of Chile.
    134. De Grauwe, Paul & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2001. "Union-wide Aggregates versus National Data Based Monetary Policies: Does it Matter for the Eurosystem?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3036, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    135. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    136. Nejla Adanur Aklan & Mehmet Nargelecekenler, 2008. "Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 156-166, May.
    137. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    138. Yetman, James, 2003. "Probing potential output: Monetary policy, credibility, and optimal learning under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-330, September.
    139. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Svensson, Lars E.O., 2014. "Monetary policy trade-offs in an estimated open-economy DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 33-49.
    140. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    141. Costas Karfakis, 2012. "Credit and Business Cycles in Greece: Is there any relationship?," Discussion Paper Series 2012_08, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Aug 2012.
    142. JACQUINOT Pascal & MIHOUBI Ferhat, 2010. "The Optimality of the Taylor Rule in MARCOS: Some Deterministic and Stochastic Experiments," EcoMod2003 330700073, EcoMod.
    143. Héla Miniaoui & Mounir Smida, 2008. "Crédibilité des autorités monétaires et transparence – Quelle complémentarité dans le cas de la Tunisie? Une contribution au débat," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(2), pages 205-234.
    144. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    145. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    146. Givens, Gregory E., 2016. "On the gains from monetary policy commitment under deep habits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 19-36.
    147. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation and explicit tax distortions," Working Papers 01-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    148. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    149. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    150. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2012. "Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 191-224.
    151. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "¿De qué forma afectan las revisiones de datos a la evaluación y conducción de la política monetaria?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 369-405, octubre-d.
    152. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    153. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    154. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    155. Ugo Dubois & Bruno Ducoudré & Raphaël Martin & Anna Petronevich & Caterina Seghini & Camille Thubin & Harri Turunen, 2026. "Re-estimated FR-BDF: New Features and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Tightening in France," Working papers 1044, Banque de France.
    156. Sylvia Staudinger, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 301, CESifo.
    157. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    158. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France," Working papers 736, Banque de France.
    159. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    160. Javier G�mez & Jos� Dar�o Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    161. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
    162. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    163. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    164. Matsen, Egil & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Interest rate decisions in an asymmetric monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 365-384, June.
    165. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q I), pages 5-38.
    166. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    167. Mishra, Ankita & Mishra, Vinod, 2012. "Evaluating inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1053-1063.
    168. Goodhart, Charles & Boris Hofmann, 2002. "Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 88, Royal Economic Society.
    169. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Robust Versus Optimal Rules in Monetary Policy: A Note," IMF Working Papers 2004/096, International Monetary Fund.
    170. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September.
    171. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    172. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    173. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    174. Reza Siregar & Siwei Goo, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences of Indonesia and Thailand," CAMA Working Papers 2008-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    175. Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649, Central Bank of Chile.
    176. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
    177. Cabrera, Nilda & Bejarano, Edilean & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2011. "Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary policy rules in the inflation targeting regime," Working Papers 2011-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    178. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
    179. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: Is there a puzzle?," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    180. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2021. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," Working Paper Series 2019-2, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    181. Martha López, 2005. "House Prices and Monetary Policy in Colombia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 349, Central Bank of Chile.
    182. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    183. Meixing DAI, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    184. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Junhan Kim, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting, and Output Variability," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    185. Meixing DAI & Moïse SIDIROPOULOS, 2009. "Money growth rule and macro-financial stability under inflation-targeting regime," Working Papers of BETA 2009-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    186. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    187. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2008. "Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 77-118, September.
    188. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    189. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    190. Libman, Emiliano, 2017. "Asymmetric Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America," MPRA Paper 78864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    191. Givens, Gregory E., 2009. "Which price level to target? Strategic delegation in a sticky price and wage economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 685-698, December.
    192. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    193. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    194. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
    195. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "What does South Korean inflation targeting target?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 526-539, December.
    196. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    197. Machado, Vicente da Gama & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2014. "Measuring inflation persistence in Brazil using a multivariate model," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    198. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    199. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2011. "Banks' Net Interest Margin in the 2000s: A Macro-Accounting international perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1214-1233, October.
    200. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
    201. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    202. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
    203. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    204. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    205. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    206. P.A. Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in an Empirical Macro Model with Asymmetric Information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 146, Society for Computational Economics.
    207. Naveen Srinivasan & Vidya Mahambare & M. Ramachandran, 2006. "Modelling Inflation in India: A Critique of the Structuralist Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 4(2), pages 45-58, July.
    208. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    209. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
    210. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    211. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    212. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jackson, Timothy P., 2022. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination with biased preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    213. Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    214. Palma, Andreza Aparecida & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2011. "Preferences of the Central Bank of Brasil under the inflation targeting regime: commitment vs. discretion," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(4), November.
    215. Karolina Tura-Gawron, 2017. "The Forecasts-Based Instrument Rule And Decision Making. How Closely Interlinked? The Case Of Sweden," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 295-315, June.
    216. Gunaratna, Thakshila, 2014. "Differences in monetary policies between two hypothetical closed economies:one which is concerned with avoiding a large negative output gap and the other which is not," MPRA Paper 61826, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    217. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Working Papers 573, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    218. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Does Macroeconomics Help Us To Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2849, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    219. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
    220. Zheng Liu & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation: mind the gap," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan19.
    221. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    222. Robert Pavasuthipaisit, 2010. "The Role of Asset Prices in Best-Practice Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 81-115, June.
    223. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    224. Castro, Vitor, "undated". "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," Economic Research Papers 269883, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    225. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    226. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    227. Luis Pacheco, 2008. "Asset Prices in Monetary Policy Rules: Should they stay or should they go?," Working Papers 4/2008, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    228. Mr. Victor Gaiduch & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2000/158, International Monetary Fund.
    229. Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 2006/262, International Monetary Fund.
    230. Harry Garretsen & Bas van Aarle & Florence Huart, 2006. "Chocs et règles de politique économique en UEM," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 173(2), pages 43-63.
    231. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2007. "Solution of RE Models with Anticipated Shocks and Optimal Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-32, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    232. Man Cho, 2014. "Housing price and mortgage credit cycles: tales of two countries," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 5, pages 82-111, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    233. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    234. Jonsson, Thomas & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden," Working Papers 114, National Institute of Economic Research.
    235. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest‐Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    236. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics.
    237. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2002. "ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 02008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    238. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    239. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
    240. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, August.
    241. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    242. Kurz, Mordecai & Piccillo, Giulia & Wu, Howei, 2013. "Modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated New Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1403-1433.
    243. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    244. Mr. Jorge Roldos, 2006. "Disintermediation and Monetary Transmission in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2006/084, International Monetary Fund.
    245. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    246. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    247. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
    248. Zhang, Zhiwei & Zhang, Wenlang, 2011. "The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-321, August.
    249. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    250. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2002. "On (Sub) Optimal Monetary Policy Rules under Untied Fiscal Hands," Research Papers in Economics 2002:17, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    251. Arend, Mario, 2005. "Efectos de una nueva medida de shock monetario bajo el esquema de metas de inflación en Chile [Effects of a New Measure of Monetary Shock Under Inflation Targeting in Chile]," MPRA Paper 27156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    252. Andrés Felipe Giraldo palomino, 2007. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Documentos de Economía 3947, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    253. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Paolo Surico, 2003. "Why are Federal Funds Rates so Smooth?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 39, Royal Economic Society.
    254. Krause Montalbert, Stefan, 2016. "Better off without the euro? Evaluating monetary policy and macroeconomic performance for the u.k. and sweden," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 34(2), December.
    255. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
    256. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    257. Richard Harrison & Matt Waldron, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 911, Bank of England.
    258. Ben Martin & Chris Salmon, 1999. "Should uncertain monetary policy-makers do less?," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 99, Bank of England.
    259. Rafael Domenech & Mayte Ledo & David Taguas, 2001. "A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU," Working Papers 0102, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    260. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    261. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(2), pages 231-252, June.
    262. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    263. Xin Long & Mr. Mangal Goswami & Andreas Jobst, 2009. "An Investigation of Some Macro-Financial Linkages of Securitization," IMF Working Papers 2009/026, International Monetary Fund.
    264. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 278, CESifo.
    265. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    266. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    267. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    268. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 0020, Banco de España.
    269. Djuranovik, Leslie, 2014. "The Indonesian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    270. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2005. "Changing Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. –Evidence from a Time-Varying Coefficient VAR," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 144, Society for Computational Economics.
    271. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    272. Ferhat MIHOUBI & Pascal JACQUINOT, 2004. "The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 220, Society for Computational Economics.
    273. Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Laseen, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," 2009 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    274. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    275. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 2009/101, International Monetary Fund.
    276. Georgios Chortareas, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules In The Run‐Up To The Emu," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 687-712, November.
    277. Claudia Arguedas Gonzales, 2004. "Las tasas de interés en moneda nacional y la inflación: una revisión de la Hipótesis de Fisher para Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 325-341, octubre-d.
    278. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    279. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An optimizing model for monetary policy analysis: can habit formation help?," Working Papers 98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    280. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    281. Timothy Kim & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering the Hit-list for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    282. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    283. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    284. Joseph Djivre & Sigal Ribon, 2000. "Monetary Policy, the Output Gap and Inflation: A Closer Look at the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Israel 1989-1999," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2000.09, Bank of Israel.
    285. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
    286. Wieland, Volker & Beck, Günter, 2007. "Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking," CEPR Discussion Papers 6098, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    287. Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    288. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    289. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
    290. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    291. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    292. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    293. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics.
    294. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    295. Gerhard Sorger, 2005. "Active and Passive Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 731-748, July.
    296. Henrik Jensen, "undated". "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-23, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    297. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    298. Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
    299. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
    300. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    301. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1998. "Tradeoffs between inflation and output-gap variances in an optimizing-agent model," International Finance Discussion Papers 627, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    302. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2007. "Happiness, Contentment and Other Emotions for Central Banks," NBER Working Papers 13622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    303. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    304. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "Inflation Forecast-Based Rule for Inflation Targeting: Case of Some Selected MENA Countries," Working Papers 628, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    305. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    306. Gadi Barlevy, 2010. "Robustness and macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series WP-2010-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    307. Uhlig, Harald, 2000. "Should We Be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 261-303, December.
    308. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 771-780, May.
    309. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2004. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Macroeconomics 0404026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    310. Taylor, John B, 2000. "Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 60-73, Winter.
    311. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "Ideal and Real Japanese Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Actual and Optimal Policy Measures," MPRA Paper 70688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    312. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    313. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    314. Laurence H. Meyer & Eric T. Swanson & Volker W. Wieland, 2001. "NAIRU uncertainty and nonlinear policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    315. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
    316. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    317. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2011. "A small New Keynesian state space model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 672-684, January.
    318. Schalck, Christophe, 2006. "Règles Budgétaires et Gestion du Policy-Mix dans l'UEM Budgetary Rules and Management of the Policy-Mix in the UME," MPRA Paper 1434, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2006.
    319. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier G�mez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 3309, Banco de la Republica.
    320. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2008. "A new approach for modelling and understanding optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 13-15, July.
    321. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money‐Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
    322. Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter & Yunus Aksoy, 1999. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Euroland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 299-318, December.
    323. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    324. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    325. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    326. Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Targeting Inflation with a Prominent Role for Money," Working Paper Series 123, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    327. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    328. Dimitar EFTIMOSKI, 2019. "Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Macedonian GDP: Comparing the Factor Model with the Macroeconomic Structural Equation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 32-53, June.
    329. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Nguyen, Chau N., 2017. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    330. Nguyen, Luan, 2016. "Should the Reserve Bank worry about the exchange rate?," MPRA Paper 75519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    331. Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 407-434, November.
    332. Tachibana, Minoru, 2004. "Central Banks' preferences in Japan, the UK, and the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 81-93, January.
    333. Pardo, S. & Rautureau, N. & Vallée, T., 2011. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2761-2775.
    334. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    335. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    336. Gongpil Choi, 2003. "The Choice of Monetary Regime for Post-Crisis Asia. The Case of South Korea," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1137-1160.
    337. Juha Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Jouko Vilmunen, 2007. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 113, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    338. Mariusz Górajski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2022. "Which hallmarks of optimal monetary policy rules matter in Poland? A stochastic dominance approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(2), pages 149-182.
    339. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2019. "What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 13949, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    340. dogru, bulent & marabaoglu, akif, 2011. "Impact of inflatıon gap to nomınal interest rates: case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 40472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    341. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    342. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    343. Lukáš Kučera, 2018. "Investice v transmisním mechanismu cílování inflace verifikace zdrojů variability investic v České republice [Investment in the Transmission Mechanism of Inflation Targeting - Verification of Sources of Investment Variability in the Czech Republic," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 201-217.
    344. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454, HAL.
    345. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    346. T. Asada & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the wage price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 262, Society for Computational Economics.
    347. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2005. "Back to Keynes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1424, CESifo.
    348. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    349. C. Hueng, 2012. "Central Bank Behavior and Statutory Independence," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(2), pages 111-126, June.
    350. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1892, November.
    351. Fiodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Prices? Evidence from a Structural Model," MPRA Paper 27942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    352. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 225-245.
    353. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
    354. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2013. "Design limits and dynamic policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2710-2728.
    355. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    356. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
    357. Loisel, Olivier, 2024. "Stabilization policy and lags," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    358. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Amy Corbett & Patrick Perrier, 2006. "An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM," Staff Working Papers 06-41, Bank of Canada.
    359. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," MPRA Paper 6854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    360. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    361. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    362. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 16654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    363. Karen Dury & Ray Barell & Ian Hurst, 2000. "An Encompassing Framework For Evaluating Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 184, Society for Computational Economics.
    364. Yosha, Oved & Ber, Hedva & Blass, Asher, 2002. "Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: The Differential Impact on Exporting and Non-Exporting Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 3191, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    365. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 13892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    366. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2023. "Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    367. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    368. Azhar Iqbal & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 987-1014.
    369. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
    370. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Financial Variables and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 112, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    371. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 87, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    372. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    373. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    374. Romaniuk, Katarzyna & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Asset Prices and Assymetries in the Fed's Interest Rate Rule : a Financial Approach," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08006, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    375. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
    376. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    377. Korhonen, Iikka & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2017. "Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    378. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    379. Ann-Charlotte Eliasson & Mr. Peter Isard & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 1999/075, International Monetary Fund.
    380. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    381. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Post-Print hal-01010831, HAL.
    382. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2001. "Asset prices, financial conditions and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    383. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
    384. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    385. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    386. Arturo Estrella, 2002. "Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 243-255.
    387. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    388. Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "Central Bank Behavior, the Institutional Framework, and Policy Regimes: Inflation Versus Noninflation Targeting Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 331-343, July.
    389. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "The case for price level or inflation targeting--What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-291, August.
    390. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    391. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    392. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    393. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
    394. Hawkins, Raymond J. & Nguyen, Chau N., 2018. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the IS puzzle," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 12, pages 1-13.
    395. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    396. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    397. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Inflation targeting under commitment and discretion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-13.
    398. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," IMFS Working Paper Series 49, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    399. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2010. "Should inflation-targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 460-485, April.
    400. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    401. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    402. Nicholas Apergis & Chritina Christou & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Herding: Evidence from Commodity Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 355-374, September.
    403. Fernando Alexandre, 2003. "Monetary policy, investment and non-fundamental shocks," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 296, Society for Computational Economics.
    404. Wang, Xi & Liu, Ying & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Monetary policy dysregulation with data distortion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    405. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    406. Luis Mario Hernández Acevedo, 2004. "Señales de política monetaria y tasas de interés en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 343-367, octubre-d.
    407. Alex Cukierman & V. Anton Muscatelli, 2002. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? - Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 764, CESifo.
    408. Mariano Kulish & Stephen Elias, 2013. "Direct effects of money on aggregate demand: another look at the evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3801-3809, September.
    409. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
    410. Jean-Paul Lam & Florian Pelgrin, 2004. "The Implications of Transmission and Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation," Staff Working Papers 04-37, Bank of Canada.
    411. Gongpil Choi, 2003. "Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 113-142.
    412. Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442, Bank for International Settlements.
    413. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2009. "Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008 [International Shocks and GDP fluctuations in a Developing Economy: Evidence from ," MPRA Paper 38987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    414. Teryoshin, Yevgeniy, 2023. "Historical performance of rule-like monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    415. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "Political Devolution without Fiscal Devolution," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0505, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    416. Cateau, Gino, 2007. "Monetary policy under model and data-parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2083-2101, October.
    417. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    418. Darren Grant, 2009. "What Makes a Good Economy? An Analysis of Survey Data," Working Papers 0909, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    419. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    420. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "The problems of learning and indeterminacy in inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    421. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    422. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2005. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 752-767, April.
    423. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
    424. Bofinger, Peter & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Teaching New Keynesian Open Economy Macroeconomics at the Intermediate Level," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 66, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    425. Pedro Pablo Alvarez Lois, 2000. "Asymmetries In The Capacity-Inflation Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 470.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    426. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment," MPRA Paper 3596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    427. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    428. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    429. Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    430. Dennis, Richard & Söderström, Ulf, 2002. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 139, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    431. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    432. Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM & Mohammad Taslim UDDIN, 2011. "Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 106-119, June.
    433. Lars E. O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 275-294.
    434. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    435. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    436. Alali, Walid Y., 2012. "Simple Rules of the Monetary Policy and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," EconStor Preprints 269882, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    437. Ida, Daisuke, 2011. "Monetary policy and asset prices in an open economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-117, August.
    438. Hohberger, Stefan & Herz, Bernhard, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Regimes and Current Account Dynamics," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    439. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "Houses as collateral: has the link between house prices and consumption in the U.K. changed?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 163-177.
    440. Barendra Kumar Bhoi & Abhishek Kumar & Prashant Mehul Parab, "undated". "Aggregate demand management, policy errors and optimal monetary policy in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-029, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    441. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    442. M. Marzo & I. Strid & P. Zagaglia, 2006. "Optimal Opportunistic Monetary Policy in A New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers 573, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    443. Petra Gerlach‐Kristen, 2009. "Outsiders at the Bank of England's MPC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1115, September.
    444. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2004. "Pitfalls of monetary policy under incomplete information: imprecise indicators and real indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 488, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    445. Volker Wieland, 2012. "Model comparison and robustness: a proposal for policy analysis after the financial crisis," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 2, pages 33-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    446. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    447. Wojnilower, Joshua, 2018. "On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-56.
    448. Rik Hafer, 2001. "What remains of monetarism?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 13-33.
    449. C. Chiarella & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 149, Society for Computational Economics.
    450. Xiangrong Yu, 2013. "Measurement Error and Policy Evaluation in the Frequency Domain," Working Papers 172013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    451. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    452. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2014. "Comment on "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 345-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    453. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
    454. Mustafa Caglayan & Zainab Jehan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy: Evidence from Canada and the Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-293, July.
    455. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomics Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 08/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    456. Hartmann, Daniel, 2001. "Taylor-Regel und amerikanische Geldpolitik," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 17/2001, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    457. Ramdane Djoudad & Céline Gauthier, 2003. "A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 03-19, Bank of Canada.
    458. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    459. Daniel H. Cooper & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2016. "Monetary policy and regional house-price appreciation," Working Papers 16-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    460. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2009. "Optimal exchange-rate policy in a low interest rate environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 264-282, September.
    461. Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, "undated". "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    462. Williams, John C., 2013. "A defense of moderation in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 137-150.
    463. Mr. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/021, International Monetary Fund.
    464. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    465. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    466. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society.
    467. Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "The Road to Recovery: Fiscal Stimulus, Financial Sector Rehabilitation, and Exit from Policy Easing," Working Papers 0918, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    468. Abdelli Soulaima, 2014. "A Welfare Based Approach for choosing the Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Regime in Tunisia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(12), pages 919-932.
    469. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    470. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    471. Alexei Onatski, 2000. "Minimax Analysis of Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1818, Econometric Society.
    472. FIodendji, Komlan, 2011. "Should Canadian monetary policy respond to asset prices? Evidence from a structural model," MPRA Paper 28039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    473. Arend, Mario, 2007. "An Analytical Solution for the Interest Rate Reaction Function in a Neo- Keynesian Economy Using the Undetermined Coefficients Method," MPRA Paper 17908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    474. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    475. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2019. "Global Banking, Financial Spillovers, and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," BIS Working Papers 764, Bank for International Settlements.
    476. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    477. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    478. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    479. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    480. Leitemo, Kai & Lonning, Ingunn, 2006. "Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1619-1640, September.
    481. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    482. Alfred V. Guender & David R. Gillmore, 2010. "Practical Monetary Policies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 25-53, March.
    483. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2015. "Taylor rules, central bank preferences and inflation targeting," Working Papers 2015023, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    484. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    485. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    486. Gongpil Choi, 2001. "Structural changes and the scope of inflation targeting in Korea," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    487. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2005.
    488. Palmqvist, Stefan, 1999. "Why Central Banks Announce Their Objectives: Monetary Policy with Discretionary Signalling," Working Paper Series 78, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    489. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    490. Malikane, Christopher, 2024. "Traditional output dynamics: A structural perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    491. Fernando Martins, 2003. "Movements in Official Interest Rates: Persistence and Gradualism," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    492. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
    493. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York.
    494. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.
    495. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations," Working Papers 2003-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    496. Jan Filacek & Ivan Sutoris, 2019. "Inflation Targeting Flexibility: The CNB's Reaction Function under Scrutiny," Research and Policy Notes 2019/02, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    497. Lauri Kajanoja, 2004. "Money as an indicator variable for monetary policy when money demand is forward looking," Macroeconomics 0405003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    498. Alali, Walid Y., 2012. "Simple Rules of the Monetary Policy and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 116483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    499. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
    500. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomics 0409023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    501. Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203, Bank for International Settlements.
    502. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    503. Hafer, R.W. & Haslag, Joseph H. & Jones, Garett, 2007. "On money and output: Is money redundant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 945-954, April.
    504. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    505. Bozhechkova, Alexandera V. (Божечкова, Александра В.) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Полбин, Андрей В.), 2018. "Evidence for the Interest Rate Channel in the IS Curve for the Russian Economy [Тестирование Наличия Процентного Канала В Кривой Is Для Российской Экономики]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 70-91, February.
    506. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77.
    507. Willi Semmler & Alfred Greiner & Wenlang Zhang, 2002. "Monetary policy in the euro area: Was it too tight in the 1990s?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 283-297, September.
    508. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France, Working Paper Series no. 736, Banque de France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02400611, HAL.
    509. Michael Dotsey, 1999. "The importance of systematic monetary policy for economic activity," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 41-60.
    510. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    511. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 6957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    512. James S. Fackler & W. Douglas McMillin, 2011. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: An Alternative Approach to Estimating the Inflation‐Output Variability Tradeoff," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 424-451, October.
    513. Jun Gao & Sheng Zhu, 2019. "A New Structural Analysis of Inflation and Economic Activity," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 35-51, June.
    514. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    515. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Nathalie Payelle, 2001. "Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 531-568.
    516. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    517. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    518. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    519. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
    520. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2008. "Robust-satisficing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty," Working Paper 2007/14, Norges Bank.
    521. Jangryoul Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2009. "A Primer on the Optimal Monetary Policy Rule: The Case of US," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 57-78, December.
    522. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted to Asset Price Movements? Evidence from the UK," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 7(1), pages 18-33, Summer.
    523. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    524. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2014. "A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment," Working Paper Series 2014-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    525. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March.
    526. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Nov), pages 39-61.
    527. Fethi Oğunc & Inci Batmaz, 2009. "Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 683-693.
    528. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    529. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Wu, Hongwei & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Striated Metropolis–Hastings sampler for high-dimensional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 406-420.
    530. Eschenhof, Sabine, 2009. "Standard Taylor rules revisited - A cross country study for European countries," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 40391, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    531. Ray Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm205, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    532. Jacek Krawczyk & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Satisficing Solutions for New Zealand Monetary Policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    533. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "When should central bankers be fired?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, March.
    534. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2002. "The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 92, Bank of Canada.
    535. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur [Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    536. Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Monetary policy with unobservedpotential output," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 258-275, Bank for International Settlements.
    537. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    538. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    539. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    540. Jérôme Hericourt, 2005. "And if One Size Fit All after All? A Counterfactual Examination of the ECB Monetary Policy under Duisenberg Presidency," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03280963, HAL.
    541. Christian R. Proano, 2009. "Heterogenous Behavioral Expectations, FX Fluctuations and Dynamic Stability in a Stylized Two-Country Macroeconomic Model," IMK Working Paper 03-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    542. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: A structural time series approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    543. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo & Villarreal, Francisco, 2008. "A modified Taylor rule for dealing with demand shocks and uncertain potential macroeconomic output," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1283-1300.
    544. Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    545. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2018. "Monetary policy rules and the equity risk premium: Evidence from the US experience," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 287-299, October.
    546. Hinterlang, Natascha & Tänzer, Alina, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning," Discussion Papers 51/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    547. Castelnuovo Efrem, 2006. "The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    548. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/183, International Monetary Fund.
    549. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2575, CESifo.
    550. Vestin, David, 2006. "Price-level versus inflation targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1361-1376, October.
    551. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Bogdan Cosmaciuc, 2006. "In noise we trust? Optimal monetary policy with random targets," Working Papers 06-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    552. Claeys, Sophie, 2005. "Optimal regulatory design for the Central Bank of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2005, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    553. Alan S. Blinder & John Morgan, 2001. "Are Two Heads Better Than One?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decisionmaking," Working Papers 130, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    554. Meixing DAI, 2007. "A two-pillar strategy to keep inflation expectations at bay: A basic theoretical framework," Working Papers of BETA 2007-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    555. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    556. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    557. Charles L. Evans & Jonas D. M. Fisher & François Gourio & Spencer D. Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2015-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    558. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2007. "GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1424-1449, December.
    559. Aragón, Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2009. "Central Bank preferences and monetary rules under the inflation targeting regime in Brasil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(1), May.
    560. Kevin J. Lansing & Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Forward-Looking Behavior and the Optimality of the Taylor Rule," Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    561. Kai Leitemo & Oistein Roisland, 2002. "The Choice of Monetary Policy Regime for Small Open Economies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 463-494.
    562. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September.
    563. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2008. "Generalized method of moments and inverse control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3113-3147, October.
    564. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    565. Harsha Paranavithana & Leandro Magnusson & Rod Tyers, 2020. "Transitions to inflation targeting: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(59), pages 6468-6481, December.
    566. Hilary Metcalf, 2001. "Increasing inequality in Higher Education: the role of term-time working," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 186, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    567. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
    568. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    569. Mamadou Bobo Diallo & Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Christian R. Proano, 2011. "Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction between Real Wages and Macroeconomic Activity," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(1), pages 77-93, April.
    570. Gregory E. Givens, 2012. "Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1033-1061, September.
    571. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Efficiency of the Monetary Policy and Stability of Central Bank Preferences. Empirical Evidence for Peru," Working Papers 2007-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    572. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    573. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2004. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    574. Renee A. Fry-McKibbin & Chen Wang, 2014. "Does Inflation Targeting Outperform Alternative Policies during Global Downturns?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    575. Richard Dennis, 2004. "Inferring Policy Objectives from Economic Outcomes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 735-764, September.
    576. Us, Vuslat & Ozcan, Kıvılcım Metin, 2005. "Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 499-517.
    577. Vitale, Paolo, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy for a pessimistic central bank," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 39-59.
    578. Hyuk Rhee & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2012. "Targeting Rules for an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 447-471, July.
    579. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    580. Fernando Duarte & Tobias Adrian, 2017. "Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 391, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    581. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
    582. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2009. "Prudent monetary policy and prediction of the output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-230, June.
    583. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Commentary : challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-67.
    584. Jack McKeown & Jens McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    585. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2000. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Working papers 76, Banque de France.
    586. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 255-278, August.
    587. Várpalotai, Viktor, 2006. "Az inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontja Magyarországon [The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1135-1154.
    588. Rodríguez Arnulfo & Rodríguez Pedro N., 2007. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Working Papers 2007-04, Banco de México.
    589. Barrell, Ray & Dury, Karen & Hurst, Ian, 2003. "International monetary policy coordination: an evaluation using a large econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 507-527, May.
    590. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 111-144, February.
    591. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    592. Kirdan Lees, 2006. "What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    593. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
    594. Costas Karfakis, 2011. "On money and output in the euro area: Is money redundant?," Discussion Paper Series 2011_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2011.
    595. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2007. "Inflation persistence: Implications for a design of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to external shocks," CEIS Research Paper 93, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    596. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
    597. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank.
    598. Christopher J. Neely, 2003. "The Federal Reserve responds to crises: September 11th was not the first," Working Papers 2003-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    599. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.
    600. Michael Parkin, 2009. "What is the Ideal Monetary Policy Regime? Improving the Bank of Canada's Inflation-targeting Program," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 279, January.
    601. Paolo Gelain, 2007. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule For the European Central Bank," EcoMod2007 23900028, EcoMod.
    602. Ami Barnea & Joseph Djivre, 2004. "Changes in Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and the Transmission Mechanism in Israel, 1989.IV – 2002.I," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.13, Bank of Israel.
    603. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2003. "Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(3), pages 297-326.
    604. Chaouech, Olfa, 2012. "La politique de ciblage d'inflation: fondements théoriques et validation empirique [The inflation targeting policy: theoretical and empirical validation]," MPRA Paper 60760, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2014.
    605. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    606. Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2006. "Looking for an Optimal Monetary Policy Rule: The Case of Poland under IT Framework," NBP Working Papers 38, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    607. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    608. Favero, Carlo A. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    609. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    610. S. Fries & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2016. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the Euro Area," Working papers 611, Banque de France.
    611. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    612. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    613. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    614. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 169, Bank of England.
    615. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," NIPE Working Papers 26/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    616. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    617. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    618. Frohm, Erik, 2020. "Price-setting and economic slack: Evidence from firm-level survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    619. Ondřej Čížek, 2015. "Makroekonometrický model eurozóny [Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 279-299.
    620. Marzo, Massimiliano, 2009. "Wage or price-based inflation? Alternative targets in optimal monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1296-1313, June.
    621. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    622. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    623. Alastair Cunninghan & Andrew G. Haldane, 2002. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the United Kingdom: Pass-Through and Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 331-356, Central Bank of Chile.
    624. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "The performance of monetary and fiscal rules in an open economy with imperfect capital mobility," Research Working Paper RWP 05-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    625. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    626. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    627. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Modelling anti-inflationary monetary targeting: with an application to Romania," Working Paper Series 1186, European Central Bank.
    628. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    629. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    630. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, September.
    631. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    632. Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2005. "Inflation, Price Level and Hybrid Rules under Inflation Uncertainty," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 141-156, March.
    633. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 30-35, March.
    634. Gregory Erin Givens, 2006. "Revisiting the Delegation Problem in a Sticky Price and Wage Economy," Working Papers 200601, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    635. Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2011. "Estimating Taylor rules in a credit channel environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 344-364.
    636. Nephil Matangi Maskay, Ph.D. & Rajendra Pandit, 2011. "Macro-Financial Link and Monetary Policy Management: Insight from the Case of Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 23(2), pages 1-17, October.
    637. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    638. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2021. "On the Use of Current or Forward-Looking Data in Monetary Policy: A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8853, CESifo.
    639. Hafer, R.W. & Jones, Garett, 2008. "Dynamic IS curves with and without money: An international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 609-616, June.
    640. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    641. Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard, 2003. "Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 567-584, November.
    642. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    643. D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2010. "Estimating Central Bank preferences in a small open economy: Sweden 1995-2009," MPRA Paper 26575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    644. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    645. Ali K. Malik, 2012. "A comparison of equilibrium under alternative monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1391-1399, September.
    646. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    647. Palmqvist, Stefan, 1999. "Why Central Banks Announce their Objectives: Monetary Policy with Discretionary Signalling," Seminar Papers 663, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    648. Richard Dennis, 2003. "Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 20-38, March.
    649. Zhao, Mingjun, 2007. "Monetary policy under misspecified expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1278-1299, April.
    650. Najib Khan, 2024. "The Dual-Mandate Debate: What Do Central Banks Really Target?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, December.
    651. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "Can a Calibrated New-Keynesian Model of Monetary Policy Fit the Facts?," Working Paper Series 140, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    652. Christopher Malikane, 2017. "The labour share and the dynamics of output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(37), pages 3741-3750, August.
    653. Levine, Paul & McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Swarbrick, Jonathan, 2025. "Limited asset market participation and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    654. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "Traditional Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 61427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    655. H. E. Cha & Raymond Jay Lim, 2024. "Model‐based estimation in monetary policy inertia and it's another possibility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2077-2094, April.
    656. Bernd Hayo & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in EMU," Macroeconomics 0203003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    657. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    658. Rubina Hassan, 2011. "The Reserve Equation and the Analytics of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 111-142, Jan-Jun.
    659. William B English & J David López-Salido & Robert J Tetlow, 2015. "The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monetary Policy: Recent Changes and New Questions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 22-70, May.
    660. Pelin Ilbas, 2008. "Estimation of monetary policy preferences in a forward-looking model : a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Research 129, National Bank of Belgium.
    661. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization Institute Working Papers 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    662. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2013. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," NBER Working Papers 19442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    663. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Mar), pages 21-30.
    664. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    665. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    666. Ulf Söderström, 2005. "Targeting Inflation with a Role for Money," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 577-596, November.
    667. Daniel F. Waggoner & Hongwei Wu & Tao Zha, 2014. "The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    668. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    669. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    670. Mayer, Eric, 2003. "The mechanics of a reasonably fitted quarterly New Keynesian macro model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 41, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    671. Komlan, Fiodendji, 2013. "The asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and the output gap: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 911-923.
    672. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    673. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.
    674. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Simplicity versus optimality: The choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 245-279, January.
    675. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
    676. Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Is the Quantity of Government Debt a Constraint for Monetary Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2007/062, International Monetary Fund.
    677. Richard Mash, 2002. "Monetary Policy with an Endogenous Capital Stock when Inflation is Persistent," Economics Series Working Papers 108, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  56. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Samira Haddou, 2010. "Non-linéarité de la fonction de réaction des autorités monétaires tunisiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 99-110.
    2. Kasai Ndahiriwe & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2011. "The Opportunistic approach to monetary policy and financial markets," Working Papers 201103, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2019. "Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 812, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. EO, Yunjong & LIE, Denny, 2017. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-58, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
    7. Tomasz Lyziak, 2016. "Financial crisis, low inflation environment and short-term inflation expectations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 285-300.
    8. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M'Baye, 2016. "Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach," Working Papers halshs-01313095, HAL.
    9. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    10. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    11. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2015. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: Evidence based on a new credibility index," NBP Working Papers 209, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Claude Diebolt & Mamoudou Toure & Jamel Trabelsi, 2012. "Monetary Credibility Effects on Inflation Dynamics: A Macrohistorical Case Study," Working Papers 12-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    14. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Pankaj Kumar, 2015. "Can Univariate Time Series Models of Inflation Help Discriminate Between Alternative Sources of Inflation PersistenceAuthor-Name: Naveen Srinivasan," Working Papers 2015-104, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    16. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2024. "Are prudent monetary and fiscal policy drivers of FDI inflows?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    17. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Expectations Impact on the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," MPRA Paper 35482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Does a Higher Sacrifice Ratio Mean that Central Bank Independence is Excessive?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, May.
    19. Cristina Isabel Ramos Barroso & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 92(8), pages 273-315.
    20. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
    21. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    23. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/38, European University Institute.
    24. Anuradha Patnaik, 2025. "Are inflation expectations anchored in India? A peek through the credibility lens," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-23, February.
    25. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Natália Ferreira Trigo, 2024. "What is the effect of imported inflation and central bank credibility on the poor and rich?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(21), pages 2520-2543, May.
    26. Nana Kwame Akosah & Ivy Acquaye & Francis White Loloh, 2017. "Monetary policy credibility and macrodynamics: evidence from Ghana," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(21), pages 1567-1574, December.
    27. Helle Bunzel & Walter Enders, 2010. "The Taylor Rule and “Opportunistic” Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 931-949, August.
    28. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts, 2010. "Why Speed Doesn’t Kill: Learning to Believe in Disinflation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 23-42, April.
    29. Thuy Hang Duong, 2026. "The Time‐Varying Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 59(1), pages 59-74, March.
    30. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    31. Naveen Srinivasan & M. Ramachandran & Sudhanshu Kumar, 2010. "Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment: Is There Evidence for Opportunistic Behaviour?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 4-19.
    32. Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2011. "How are Inflation Targets Set?," Working Papers 2011/06, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    33. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    34. Maria Thalita Arruda Oliveira Olivindo & Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Rodolfo Herald Costa Campos, 2025. "Changes in the monetary policy and credibility index," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1363-1381, September.
    35. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
    36. Ruthira Naraidoo & Ivan Paya, 2010. "Forecasting Monetary Rules in South Africa," Working Papers 201007, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    37. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    38. Denise Côté & Carlos De Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Staff Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada.
    39. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," Discussion Papers 2025/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    40. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries," Working Papers Series 575, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    41. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Mustafa Cagri Peker, 2017. "Inflation Target Credibility: Do the Financial Markets Find the Targets Believable?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1125-1147, December.
    42. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    43. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2010. "Trend inflation, endogenous mark-ups and the non-vertical Phillips curve," CIMEO Working Paper Series 65, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    44. Marzo, Massimiliano & Strid, Ingvar & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Nonlinearity in monetary policy: A reconsideration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 288-300, December.
    45. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2019. "La crédibilité des politiques monétaires affecte-t-elle la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne? [Does the credibility of monetary policies affect economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa?]," MPRA Paper 99961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    47. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    48. Serkan ÇİÇEK & Cüneyt AKAR & Eray YÜCEL, 2011. "Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 37-55.
    49. In Do Hwang, 2018. "Central Bank Reputation and Inflation-Unemployment Performance: Empirical Evidence from an Executive Survey of 62 Countries," Working Papers 2018-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    50. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Juan Camilo Anzoategui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2021. "Effects of fiscal credibility on inflation expectations: evidence from an emerging economy," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 125-148.
    52. Carlos Medel, 2018. "An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 128-152, August.
    53. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    54. David Gbaguidi, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119.
    55. Nautz, Dieter & Netsunajew, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "The Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Short and in the Long Run," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    56. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2015. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-028, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    57. Joshua Brault & Qazi Haque & Louis Phaneuf, 2025. "Time-Varying Inflation Target and Unbiased Taylor Rule Estimation," Working Papers 25-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Jan 2025.
    58. Alain Kabundi & Eric Schaling, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Expectations in South Africa: an Attempt at Explanation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 346-355, September.
    59. Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2014. "Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland," Working Papers 2014-11, Swiss National Bank.
    60. Gülbahar Atasever & Bora Süslü, 2026. "A Sectoral Approach to Inflation Expectations in the Turkish Economy: The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Time-Varying LA-VAR Granger Causality Analysis," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(4), pages 1419-1445.
    61. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Siqueira Galveas, Karine Alves, 2013. "Transparency and inflation: What is the effect on the Brazilian economy?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 69-80.
    62. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data," Working Paper Series 1945, European Central Bank.
    63. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    64. Bloch, Laurence, 2012. "Product market regulation, trend inflation and inflation dynamics in the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2058-2070.
    65. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2008. "Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0812, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    66. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility’s Effect on Stock Exchange Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    67. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    68. Mehrotra, Aaron & Yetman, James, 2018. "Are inflation targets credible? A novel test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 67-70.
    69. Mandler, Martin, 2011. "Threshold effects in the monetary policy reaction function of the Deutsche Bundesbank," MPRA Paper 32430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    70. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    71. Park, Kwangyong, 2022. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates and central bank credibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    72. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    73. Isabelle Salle & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Murat Yıldızoğlu, 2019. "How transparent about its inflation target should a central bank be?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 391-427, March.
    74. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    75. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Dantas, João, 2025. "Effects of trilemma policies patterns on monetary policy credibility," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2).
    76. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez & Andrea Collado-Chaves, 2021. "Stability of Costa Rican Inflation Expectations," Notas Técnicas 2101, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    77. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2019. "Inflation Expectations in the Costarican Sovereign Debt Market: Are They Anchored?," Documentos de Trabajo 1907, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    78. Marzo, Massimiliano & Strid, Ingvar & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Optimal Opportunistic Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Model," Research Papers in Economics 2006:8, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    79. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," CFS Working Paper Series 731, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    80. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Sachsida, Adolfo & Wang, Le, 2012. "Do central banks affect Tobin's q?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-10.
    81. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    82. Kabundi, Alain & Schaling, Eric & Some, Modeste, 2015. "Monetary policy and heterogeneous inflation expectations in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 109-117.
    83. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    84. Frantisek Brazdik & Tatiana Keseliova & Karel Musil & Radek Snobl & Jan Solc & Stanislav Tvrz & Jan Zacek, 2024. "Understanding Inflation Expectations: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications," Working Papers 2024/3, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    85. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2011. "Trend inflation, the labor market wedge, and the non-vertical Phillips curve," CIMEO Working Paper Series 81, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    86. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2011. "How anchored are inflation expectations in EMU countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 281-298.
    87. Kwangyong Park, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2018-45, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    88. Xin Xu & Xiaoguang Xu, 2023. "Forward guidance investigation in new Keynesian models," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 2145983-214, July.
    89. Alain Hecq & Joao Issler & Elisa Voisin, 2022. "A short term credibility index for central banks under inflation targeting: an application to Brazil," Papers 2205.00924, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    90. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2005. "Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    91. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Staff Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada.
    92. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    93. Serkan Cicek & Cuneyt Akar, 2014. "Do Inflation Expectations Converge Toward Inflation Target or Actual Inflation? Evidence from Expectation Gap Persistence," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 15-21.
    94. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2008. "Central bank learning and monetary policy," Kiel Working Papers 1444, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    95. Bopjun Gwak, 2020. "Long-term Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Credibility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2320-2335.
    96. Anderson Grajales-Olarte & Franz Hamann & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga & José Pulido, 2025. "Policy implications of losing credibility: Lessons from Colombia’s post-pandemic inflationary surge," Borradores de Economia 1304, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    97. Carvalho, Carlos & Eusepi, Stefano & , & Preston, Bruce, 2019. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13900, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    98. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Asymmetric inflation target credibility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    99. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Soper, Carolyne, 2019. "Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    100. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    101. Piotr Karaś & Krzysztof Kil, 2025. "Interest rate risk of central banks in Central and Eastern European countries and its impact on profitability and credibility in a turbulent socio-economic environment," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 56(3), pages 269-308.
    102. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    103. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
    104. Winnie Coleman & Dieter Nautz, 2025. "Asymmetric Inflation Target Credibility," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0060, Berlin School of Economics.
    105. Gießler, Stefan, 2020. "The evolution of monetary policy in Latin American economies: Responsiveness to inflation under different degrees of credibility," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    106. Patrick F ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "D sinflation et ch mage dans la zone euro : une analyse l'aide d'un mod le VAR structurel," Working papers 247, Banque de France.
    107. Laurence BLOCH, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non Zero Steady State Inflation and Entry of Firms," Working Papers 2009-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    108. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.

  57. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Tomoya Suzuki, 2008. "International Credit Channel Of Monetary Policy: An Empirical Note," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 396-407, December.
    2. Rui Manuel Pereira, Alfredo Marvao Pereira and William J. Hausman, 2017. "Railroad Infrastructure Investments and Economic Development in the Antebellum United States," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VARs describe monetary policy?," Research Paper 9812, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Koeniger, Winfried & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2018. "Home ownership and monetary policy transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 615, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with Sign Restrictions Not Identify Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/973, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79.
    10. Giavazzi, Francesco & Favero, Carlo A., 2010. "Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 7769, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment, Labor Productivity, and International Competitiveness: The Case of Portugal," GEE Papers 0071, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2017.
    12. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    14. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    15. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    16. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal," GEE Papers 0075, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    17. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 4299, IZA Network @ LISER.
    18. Carlos Lenz & Marcel R. Savioz, 2009. "Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2009-16, Swiss National Bank.
    19. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 626, Bank of England.
    20. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
    21. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    22. Alfredo M. Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho, 2006. "Public Investment and Budgetary Consolidation in Portugal," Working Papers 41, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    23. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    24. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
    25. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    26. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the economic and budgetary effects of investments in SCUTS: the Portuguese toll-free highways," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 321-338, February.
    27. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2025. "Functional reciprocity of the macroeconomic variables," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 40-62, April.
    28. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Economic causation nexus and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    30. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    31. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Testing The Opportunistic Approach To Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 110-125, March.
    32. Bredin, Don & Gavin, Caroline & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2003. "International Policy Rate Changes and Dublin Interbank Offer Rates," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/03, Central Bank of Ireland.
    33. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    34. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    35. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    36. Monticini, Andrea & Peel, David & Vaciago, Giacomo, 2011. "The impact of ECB and FED announcements on the Euro interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 139-142.
    37. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    38. Fusari, Francesco, 2025. "Identifying monetary policy shocks through external constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    39. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.
    41. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 333-346, December.
    42. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland.
    43. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    44. Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    46. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2023. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Discussion Papers 2320, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    47. Aswin Rivai, 2022. "The monetary policy impact on agricultural growth and food prices," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(9), pages 158-165, December.
    48. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2014. "On The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Spending In The United States," Working Papers 151, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    49. Kenneth Kuttner & Patricia Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the United States: some answers and further questions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 433-443, Bank for International Settlements.
    50. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    51. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 2002. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 134, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    52. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    53. Levin, Andrew & Gürkaynak, Refet & Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    54. Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2014. "The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans," SAFE Working Paper Series 76, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    55. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2009. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 206-215, April.
    56. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    57. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    58. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
    59. Were, Maureen & Nyamongo, Esman & Kamau, Anne W. & Sichei, Moses M. & Wambua, Joseph, 2014. "Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kenya: Evidence from a macroeconomic model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 193-201.
    60. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    61. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    62. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    63. José Ignacio Castillo Manzano & Fernando González Laxe & Lourdes López Valpuesta, 2006. "Una Introducción al Análisis del Tráfico de Contenedores mediante los Vectores Autoregresivos," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 5, pages 1-23, January.
    64. Azzouzi, asmae & Bousselhamia, Ahmed, 2019. "Impact Des Variations Du Taux De Change Reel Sur L'Economie Marocaine : Une Approche Svar A Des Restrictions De Signes [Impact Of Real Exchange Rate Variations On The Moroccan Economy: A Svar Approach To Sign Restrictions]," MPRA Paper 110397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2014. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2016. "The role of bank balance sheets in monetary policy transmission. Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 245, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    67. Santiago Camara & Lawrence Christiano & Husnu Dalgic, 2024. "The International Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 65-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    68. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    69. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter J. G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the Euro Area: Differences in the Transmission Process of Monetary Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1802, Econometric Society, revised 08 Nov 2000.
    70. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2015. "Exchange rates and monetary policy," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    71. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    72. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2016. "Source of Underestimation of the Monetary Policy Effect: Re-Examination of the Policy Effectiveness in Japan's 1990s," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(6), pages 795-810, December.
    73. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    74. Maria Chiara Cucciniello & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "The cost channel of monetary policy: the case of the United States in the period 1959-2018," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0262, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    75. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2020. "A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 801-837, May.
    76. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    77. Florian Huber & Manfred M. Fischer, 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp201, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    78. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
    80. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    81. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249-265.
    82. Imke Brüggemann, 2003. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(3), pages 307-339, August.
    83. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    84. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    85. Bhundia, Ashok J. & Chadha, Jagjit S., 1998. "The information content of 3-month Sterling futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 209-214, November.
    86. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2024. "Foreign exchange developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 123014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    87. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    88. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," Working Papers 647, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    89. Konstantinos D. Mavromatis, 2009. "Nonlinearities in the Real Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy: Interest Rate Rules Reconsidered," Working Papers 2009-4, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    90. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui Manuel Marvão Pereira, 2009. "Is Fuel-Switching a No-Regrets Environmental Policy? VAR Evidence on Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Performance in Portugal," Working Papers 87, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    91. Elisa Keller, 2007. "Classical and Bayesian Methods for the VAR Analysis: International Comparisons," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 149-202, November-.
    92. van Zandweghe, Willem & Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? The Case of Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1068, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    93. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    94. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    95. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 97-111.
    96. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    97. Alfredo M. Pereira & Oriol Roca Sagales, 2006. "Public Infrastructures and Regional Asymmetries in Spain," Working Papers 46, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 30 Mar 2007.
    98. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III).
    99. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
    100. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    101. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    102. Uesugi, Iichiro, 2002. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect: The Case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 289-316, September.
    103. Tomoya Suzuki, 2004. "Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 145-156, June.
    104. Yao, Wei, 2025. "The US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and Commodities’ Prices," Other publications TiSEM 185d14d3-9dc2-4276-82ec-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    105. W. Douglas McMillin & Keuk-Soo Kim, 2001. "Symmetric versus Asymmetric Lag Structures in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    106. Sourav Batabyal, 2011. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime and Delinquency," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 421-441, December.
    107. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    108. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    109. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "On the Effects of Infrastructure Investments on Industrial CO2 Emissions in Portugal," GEE Papers 0081, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2017.
    110. Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 120, Bank of England.
    111. W. Douglas McMillin, 2001. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Comparing Contemporaneous versus Long‐Run Identifying Restrictions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(3), pages 618-636, January.
    112. Gabor Pinter, 2018. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 1812, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    113. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
    114. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    115. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    116. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    117. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 12010, Banco de la Republica.
    118. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Western Hemisphere," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 19-52, December.
    119. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2001. "Forecast-based monetary policy in Sweden 1992-98: a view from within," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 204-226, Bank for International Settlements.
    120. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    121. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    122. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoît Nguyen, 2025. "Revisiting the Dynamic Impact of Asset Purchases: A Survey‐Based Identification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 846-861, November.
    123. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    124. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    125. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003.
    126. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    127. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Economic sensitivity nexus and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    128. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics.
    129. Bredin, Don & Gavin, Caroline & O Reilly, Gerard, 2004. "US Monetary Announcements and Irish Stockmarket Volatility," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    130. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    131. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industry Data of Five OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1833, Econometric Society.
    132. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte & Hugo S. Gonçalves, 2016. "Do tourism spillovers matter in regional economic analysis? An application to Portugal," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 939-963, October.
    133. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1136, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    134. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "The Evolution of the U.S. Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CAMA Working Papers 2013-70, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    135. John C. Robertson, 2000. "Central bank forecasting: an international comparison," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q2), pages 21-32.
    136. Blen Solomon & Isabel Ruiz, 2006. "Does The Price Puzzle Exist in Colombia? Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT.
    137. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
    138. Jordan Brooks & Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 25127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    139. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    140. P N Snowden & M A Salisu & N Taher, 2000. "Oiling the wheels: credit and monetary neutrality in Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 539748, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    141. Nina Boyarchenko & Valentin Haddad & Matthew Plosser, 2016. "The Federal Reserve and market confidence," Staff Reports 773, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    142. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    143. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    144. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "External demand developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    145. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
    146. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2016. "Identifying Priorities in Infrastructure Investment in Portugal," Working Papers 157, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    147. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 45, Society for Computational Economics.
    148. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    149. Stefan Schiman-Vukan & Harald Badinger, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates," WIFO Working Papers 608, WIFO.
    150. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2003. "On the Impact of Public Investment On the Performance of U.S. Industries," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(1), pages 66-90, January.
    151. Winfried Koeniger & Benedikt Lennartz & Marc-Antoine Ramelet, 2021. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," Working Papers 2021-06, Swiss National Bank.
    152. Kjellberg, David, 2006. "Measuring Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    153. Lange, Ronald H., 2010. "Regime-switching monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 782-796, September.
    154. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2019. "Identifying Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Paper Series DP2019-09, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Mar 2023.
    155. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary policy and sectoral shocks : did the Federal Reserve react properly to the high-tech crisis?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3160, The World Bank.
    156. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    157. W. Douglas McMillin & Keuk-soo Kim, 2002. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Does Lag Structure Matter?," Departmental Working Papers 2002-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    158. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
    159. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    160. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    161. Harun Alp & Hakan Kara & Gursu Keles & Refet Gurkaynak & Musa Orak, 2010. "Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi," Working Papers 1011, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    162. Yamashiro, Guy & Grobar, Lisa, 2005. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Regional Employment: The Case of Southern California," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-14.
    163. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2024. "Monetary policy developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 123004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    164. Mark S Astley & Anthony Garratt, 1998. "Exchange rates and prices: sources of sterling real exchange rate fluctuations 1973-94," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 85, Bank of England.
    165. Tevdovski, Dragan & Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2016. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 73461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2016.
    166. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    167. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    168. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    169. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 278, CESifo.
    170. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Financial market developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    171. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    172. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho & José da Silva Costa, 2005. "On the Long-term Economic and Budgetary Effects of Public-Sector Investment," ERSA conference papers ersa05p146, European Regional Science Association.
    173. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    174. Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    175. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    176. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, 2001. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    177. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    178. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2007. "Public Investment In Transportation Infrastructures And Industry Performance In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-20, June.
    179. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    180. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 8554, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    181. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
    182. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    183. Batini, Nicoletta, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    184. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    185. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    186. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    187. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    188. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 728-740, January.
    189. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2011. "Economics, politics and the federal funds markets: does the Fed play politics?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 1005-1019.
    190. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Hui Tong, 2010. "U.S. Monetary Shocks and Global Stock Prices," IMF Working Papers 2010/278, International Monetary Fund.
    191. Elder, John, 2001. "Can the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate Explain the Time-Varying Risk Premium in Treasury Bill Returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
    192. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    193. Capistrán Carlos & Chiquiar Daniel & Hernández Juan R., 2017. "Identifying Dornbusch's Exchange Rate Overshooting with Structural VECs: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-11, Banco de México.
    194. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 75-102, October.
    195. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    196. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning?," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    197. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    198. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1204, CESifo.
    199. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    200. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    201. Helmut Herwartz & Simone Maxand & Hannes Rohloff, 2022. "The Link between Monetary Policy, Stock Prices, and House Prices—Evidence from a Statistical Identification Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-53, December.
    202. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    203. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    204. Magdalena Petrovska & Ljupka Georgievska, 2015. "Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy Stance for Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    205. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    206. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Business confidence developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    207. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    208. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.
    209. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    210. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    211. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 728-740.
    212. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 87, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    213. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Firms’ Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the Eurozone," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    214. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    215. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    216. James S. Fackler & W. Douglas McMillin, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Options," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 794-810, April.
    217. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Héctor & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "The evolution of inflation and unemployment: Explaining the roaring nineties," Kiel Working Papers 1350, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    218. Xinsheng Lu & Ling Qu & Ying Zhou, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets: An Insight into Cash Rate Target Announcements," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 151-166, September.
    219. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    220. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    221. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    222. Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "Central Bank Behavior, the Institutional Framework, and Policy Regimes: Inflation Versus Noninflation Targeting Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 331-343, July.
    223. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    224. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl & James McNeil, 2026. "Reassessing Proxy-based Identification of Multiple Monetary Policy Shocks for the Euro Area, the US, and the UK," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2163, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    225. Döpke, Jörg, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    226. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    227. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "Real wages and aggregate demand shocks: contradictory evidence from VARs," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 389-413.
    228. Hiroshi Gunji & Kazuki Miura, 2025. "Re-examination of monetary policy using a shift-share regressor and instrumental variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 392-400.
    229. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2017. "Which Monetary Shocks Matter in Small Open Economies? Evidence from SVARs," Working Papers 2017-2, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    230. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    231. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    232. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    233. Andreas Worms, 2003. "Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 179-198, June.
    234. Abdullah Mamun & M. Kabir Hassan, 2014. "What explains the lack of monetary policy influence on bank holding companies?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 227-235, November.
    235. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    236. Minxian Yang, 2017. "Effects of idiosyncratic shocks on macroeconomic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1441-1461, December.
    237. Lindé, Jesper, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: Sweden 1986-2002," Working Paper Series 153, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    238. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    239. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment in Portugal and the Traded/Non-Traded Industry Mix," GEE Papers 0078, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2017.
    240. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    241. Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Looking for French Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1997-10, CEPII research center.
    242. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
    243. Jongrim Ha, 2021. "Financial market spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1221-1274, November.
    244. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    245. Zulfiqar Ali WAGAN & Zhang CHEN & Hakimzadi SEELRO & Muhammad Sanaullah SHAH, 2018. "Assessing the effect of monetary policy on agricultural growth and food prices," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(11), pages 499-507.
    246. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    247. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    248. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    249. Brämer, Patrick & Gischer, Horst & Richter, Toni & Weiß, Mirko, 2013. "Competition in banks’ lending business and its interference with ECB monetary policy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 144-162.
    250. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
    251. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    252. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Memorandum 31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    253. Bredin, Don & O’Reilly, Gerard, 2001. "An Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    254. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    255. Sergio Iván Prada & Julio C. Alonso & Juli�n Fern�ndez, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into consumer healthcare prices in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 523-550.
    256. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    257. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2006. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Investment in Road Infrastructure in Portugal," Working Papers 33, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    258. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," IREA Working Papers 200715, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2007.
    259. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    260. Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
    261. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Market uncertainty developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    262. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    263. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    264. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    265. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 215-232.
    266. Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
    267. Thornton, Daniel L., 2001. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1717-1739, September.
    268. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A., 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    269. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    270. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    271. Anna Florio, 2005. "Asymmetric monetary policy: empirical evidence for Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 751-764.
    272. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2003. "The link between monetary policy and stock and bond markets: evidence from the federal funds futures contract," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 199-209.
    273. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
    274. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society.
    275. Subagyo Ahmad & Witjaksono Armanto, 2017. "Impact of Some Overseas Monetary Variables on Indonesia: SVAR Approach," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 117-123, December.
    276. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2002. "An information-theoretic extension to structural VAR modelling," Econometrics 0203005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    277. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    278. Hoda Selim, 2012. "Exploring the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy in Egypt," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    279. James Peery Cover & Eric Olson, 2013. "Using Romer and Romer's new measure of monetary policy shocks to identify the AD and AS shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(19), pages 2838-2846, July.
    280. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    281. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April.
    282. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
    283. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    284. Philippe Bacchetta & Fernando Ballabriga, 2000. "The impact of monetary policy and banks' balance sheets: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 15-26.
    285. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    286. Sajawal Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Measures of Monetary Policy Stance : The Case of Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22201, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    287. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    288. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    289. Miles, William, 2017. "The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331.
    290. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    291. William B. English & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Egon Zakrajšek, 2012. "Interest rate risk and bank equity valuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    292. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    293. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 228, European Central Bank.
    294. Berument Hakan & Ceylan Nildag Basak, 2008. "US Monetary Policy Surprises and Foreign Interest Rates: Evidence from a Set of MENA Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 117-133, April.
    295. Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "The Effect of Equity Market Integration on the Transmission Monetary Policy. Evidence from Australia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    296. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    297. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    298. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
    299. Andraz, Jorge M. & Norte, Nélia M. & Gonçalves, Hugo S., 2015. "Effects of tourism on regional asymmetries: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 257-267.
    300. Victor Duarte & Carlos Carvalho & Tiago Berriel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, External Finance Dependence, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach," 2013 Meeting Papers 1214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    301. Matteo Iacoviello & Gaston Navarro, 2018. "Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1227, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    302. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    303. María-Dolores, Ramón, 1999. "Variaciones en el tipo de intervención del banco de España: Un análisis mediante un enfoque alternativo," DE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía. DE 3895, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    304. Syed M. Harun & M. Kabir Hassan & Tarek S. Zaher, 2005. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(1-2), pages 99-128, March-Jun.
    305. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    306. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 6957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    307. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Why Virtuous Supply-Side Effects and Irrelevant Keynesian Effects are not Foregone Conclusions: What we Learn from an Industry-Level Analysis of Infrastructure Investments in Portugal," GEE Papers 0076, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    308. Andrew Brigden & Charles Nolan, 1999. "Monetary stabilisation policy in a monetary union: some simple analytics," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 102, Bank of England.
    309. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    310. Joe Ganley & Chris Salmon, 1997. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Stylised Facts," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 68, Bank of England.
    311. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    312. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2003. "Forecast‐Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-380, November.
    313. Jan Gottschalk & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2003. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? An Investigation into the Case of Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(1), pages 55-81, March.
    314. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    315. Alfredo M. Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho, 2006. "Public Investment, Economic Performance and Budgetary Consolidation: VAR Evidence for the 12 Euro Countries," Working Papers 40, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    316. Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    317. Giorgio Valente, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 092005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    318. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2009-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    319. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    320. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Geopolitical risk developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    321. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    322. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Maria de Fatima Pinho, 2011. "Public Investment, Economic Performance And Budgetary Consolidation: Var Evidence For The First 12 Euro Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 1-20, March.
    323. Olivier Habimana, 2019. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of the Liquidity Effect and Monetary Neutrality," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 85-110, January.
    324. Ippei Fujiwara, 2003. "Has the effect of monetary policy changedduring 1990s?: An Application of Identified Markov Switching Vector Autoregression to the Impulse Response Analysis When the Nominal Interest Rate is Almost Zero," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 03-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    325. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2019. "How Does Infrastructure Investment Affect Macroeconomic Performance? Evidence from Portugal," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 11(1-2), pages 14-40, June.
    326. Nandnaba, Sarah & Hailemariam, Abebe & Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin, 2025. "Oil consumption and growth: Is there a threshold effect of greenhouse gases emissions," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    327. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    328. Liu, Lin & Hussain, Syed, 2013. "Understanding the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach in A Finite Sample," MPRA Paper 53118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    329. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2010. "The difficult art of eliciting long-run inflation expectations from government bond prices," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar.
    330. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    331. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    332. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2009. "Social Security And Economic Performance In Portugal: After All That Has Been Said And Done How Much Has Actually Changed?," Working Papers 81, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    333. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the regional incidence of highway investments in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 819-838, June.
    334. Kwo Ping Tam, 2016. "A New Comparative Study On The Free-Floating And Currency Board Regimes In Hong Kong," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 218-238, April.
    335. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    336. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Greek Banking Sector Stock Reaction to ECB’s Monetary Policy Interventions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    337. Armin Seibert & Andrei Sirchenko & Gernot Muller, 2018. "A Model for Policy Interest Rates," HSE Working papers WP BRP 192/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    338. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Reconciling narrative monetary policy disturbances with structural VAR model shocks?," Discussion Papers 23/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    339. John H. Huston & Roger W. Spencer, 2009. "Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    340. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    341. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Foreign direct investment developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    342. Bank for International Settlements, 2002. "Market functioning and central bank policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 12.
    343. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    344. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "FCIs and economic activity: Some international evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    345. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    346. Joaquim Pina, 2009. "Do international spillovers matter for long run neutrality?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1570-1587.
    347. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
    348. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2014. "On The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Security Spending:Evidence For 12 Eu Countries," Working Papers 150, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    349. Charles X. Hu, 1999. "Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-39.
    350. Khwazi Magubane & Jacques de Jongh & Precious Mncayi-Makhanya & Jabulile Makhalima & Phindile Maziya & Boingotlo Wesi, 2024. "Does financial stability spur or retard output and price stability in South Africa?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(9), pages 138-156, December.
    351. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    352. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    353. Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4114, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    354. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2019. "Health care investments and economic performance in Portugal: an industry level analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(6), pages 1174-1200, October.
    355. Masahiko Shibamoto & Wataru Takahashi & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2020. "Japan's Monetary Policy: A Literature Review and Empirical Assessment," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-15, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Mar 2021.
    356. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Bayesian Framework for the Expectations Hypothesis. How to Extract Additional Information from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 591, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    357. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Gimme a Break! Identification and Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n31, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    358. Dobromł Serwa, 2006. "Do emerging financial markets react to monetary policy announcements? Evidence from Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 513-523.
    359. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    360. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    361. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Maria De Fatima Pinho, 2006. "Impact of Public Investment Upon Economic Performance and Budgetary Consolidation Efforts in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa06p122, European Regional Science Association.
    362. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Identification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 23968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    363. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2008. "On the Regional Incidence of Public Investment in Highways in the USA," Working Papers 70, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    364. Montiel Olea, José L. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2021. "Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions identified with an external instrument," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 74-87.
    365. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2008. "Monetary Policy Effects: New Evidence from the Italian Flow of Funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 678, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    366. Goodhart, Charles, 2005. "An essay on the interactions between the Bank of England's forecasts, the MPC's policy adjustments, and the eventual outcome," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    367. Fabio Canova & Gianni De Nicolo, 2000. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," International Finance Discussion Papers 660, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    368. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
    369. Marco Gallegati, 2001. "Financial constraints and the balance sheet channel: a re-interpretation," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0112, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    370. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    371. Li, Shengfeng & Hoque, Hafiz & Thijssen, Jacco, 2021. "Firm financial behaviour dynamics and interactions: A structural vector autoregression approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    372. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  58. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Nikolay Nenovsky & Petar Chobanov, 2004. "Dynamics of the Inter-Bank Market in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 32-52.
    3. Boero, Gianna & Torricelli, Costanza, "undated". "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: some comparative evidence," Economic Research Papers 268794, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Dayong Zhang & Marco R. Barassi & Jijun Tan, 2015. "Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1118-1140, December.
    5. Andreas M. Fischer & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008. "Does FOMC News Increase Global FX Trading?," Working Papers 2008-09, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Favero, Carlo A. & Giglio, Stefano, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5793, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 241, Bank of England.
    8. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    9. Benito, Francis & Leon, Angel & Nave, Juan, 2007. "Modeling the Euro overnight rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 756-782, December.
    10. Bask, Mikael, 2011. "A Case for Interest Rate Inertia in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2011:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    12. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
    15. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in China?," Working Papers 192002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    17. Cover, James P. & VanHoose, David D., 2000. "Political pressures and the choice of the optimal monetary policy instrument," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 325-341.
    18. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Banks' reserve management, transaction costs, and the timing of the Federal Reserve intervention," Staff Reports 109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Prati, Alessandro & Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe, 2003. "The overnight interbank market: Evidence from the G-7 and the Euro zone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2045-2083, October.
    21. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve policy and the predictability of interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun23.
    24. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    25. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    26. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    27. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
    28. Gabriela Bezerra Medeiros & Marcelo Savino Portugal & Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2017. "Endogeneity and nonlinearities in Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction functions: an inverse quantile regression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1503-1527, December.
    29. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, "undated". "Moving Endpoints in Macrofinance," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _058, Society for Computational Economics.
    30. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    31. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
    33. Alessandro Riboni & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "The Power of the Federal Reserve Chair," Cahiers de recherche 20-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    34. Homburg Stefan, 2016. "Pure Theory of the Federal Funds Rate," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(3), pages 285-296, December.
    35. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    36. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
    37. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No‐Arbitrage and Macro‐Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 395-422, March.
    38. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    39. Robert Brooks & Brandon N. Cline & Pavel Teterin & Yu You, 2022. "The information in global interest rate futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1135-1166, June.
    40. Eric Jondeau & Frédéric Sedillot, 1998. "La pr vision des taux longs fran ais et allemands partir d'un modele anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.
    41. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    42. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    43. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification," Economics Papers 2005-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    44. Karel Brůna, 2005. "Mechanismus stabilizace ultrakrátkých úrokových sazeb prostřednictvím repo operací České národní banky [The stabilization mechanism of ultra short-term interest rates in the context of Czech national bank's repo tenders]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(4), pages 459-476.
    45. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
    46. Yash P. Mehra, 1997. "The bond rate and actual future inflation," Working Paper 97-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    47. Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en Colombia y Chile," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo.
    48. Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Policy Rate Decisions and Unbiased Parameter Estimation in Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2008/2, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    49. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    50. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    51. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2007. "How committees reduce the volatility of policy rates," DULBEA Working Papers 07-11.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    52. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg, 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," Working Paper Series 2080, European Central Bank.
    53. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 495-508, August.
    54. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2007. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Kiel Working Papers 1332, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    55. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Nonlinear adjustment between the Eonia and Euribor rates: a two-regime threshold cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 139-143, January.
    56. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    57. Fabrizio Iacone, 2009. "A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 475-490, August.
    58. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
    59. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Daniel Mitchell & Haolin Feng & Kumar Muthuraman, 2014. "Impulse Control of Interest Rates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 602-615, June.
    61. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
    62. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society.
    63. Graeme Guthrie & Julian Wright & Jun Yu, 1999. "Testing the expectations theory of the term structure for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 93-114.
    64. Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin Lumsdaine, 1996. "Public Information and the Persistence of Bond Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    65. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    66. Manuel Joaquim Da Natividade Silva & Gutemberg Hespanha Brasil & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2016. "Dynamic relations of the inertia of monetary policy: application to the Brazilian case by a Kalman approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24.
    67. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us," Working Papers 2004-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    68. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Michel Boutillier & Michel Guillard & Auguste Mpacko-Priso, 2000. "Règles monétaires et prévisions d’inflation en économie ouverte," Documents de recherche 00-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    70. Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    71. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    72. Gordon H. Sellon, 2002. "The changing U.S. financial system : some implications for the monetary transmission mechanism," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 87(Q I), pages 5-35.
    73. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    74. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2002. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Interest Rate Targeting," Working Paper Series 33484, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    75. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 339-354.
    76. Michael R. Pakko, 2003. "On the information content of asymmetric FOMC policy statements: evidence from a Taylor-rule perspective," Working Papers 2003-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    77. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    78. Shu Wu, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200512, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2005.
    79. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    80. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    81. Antulio N. Bomfim & Vincent Reinhart, 2000. "Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    82. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    83. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Department of Economics 01-04, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    84. Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    85. Pierre Ghislain BATILA NGOUALA KOMBO, 2025. "Financial stability and monetary stability: the role of macroprudential and monetary policy coordination in CEMAC," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 61, pages 97-109.
    86. Daniel L. Thornton & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "A history of the asymmetric policy directive," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Sep), pages 1-16.
    87. Fischer, Andreas, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2479, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    88. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    89. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q IV), pages 73-89.
    90. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Vector equilibrium correction models with non-linear discontinuous adjustments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 628-651, December.
    91. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August.
    92. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    93. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    94. Keith Cuthbertson & Don Bredin, 2000. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure - The Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 267-281.
    95. D H Kim, 2003. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0306, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    96. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    97. Fisher, Eric O'N., 2006. "The forward premium in a model with heterogeneous prior beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 48-70, February.
    98. Philip N. Jefferson, 1997. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    100. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Does Macroeconomics Help Us To Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2849, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    101. Smith, R. Todd & van Egteren, Henry, 2005. "Interest rate smoothing and financial stability," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-171.
    102. Daniel L. Thornton, 2018. "Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 513-543, March.
    103. Kim, Insu & Kim, Young Se, 2019. "Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    104. Jaroslav Brada & Karel Brůna, 2004. "Analýza citlivosti referenčních úrokových sazeb PRIBOR na změny repo sazby České národní banky [An analysis of PRIBOR interest rates sensitivity to changes in Czech national bank repo rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 601-621.
    105. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    106. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    107. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2005. "Measuring interest rates as determined by thrift and productivity," Working Papers 2005-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    108. Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith, 2000. "Risk Premia and Long Rates in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/00, Central Bank of Ireland.
    109. Wilkinson, Katherine J. & Young, Martin R. & Young, Shirley, 2001. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: Evidence from New Zealand and Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 427-455, August.
    110. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    111. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    112. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    113. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    114. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    115. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    116. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
    117. Kaketsis, Asimakis & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 487-504.
    118. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    119. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Paolo Surico, 2003. "Why are Federal Funds Rates so Smooth?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 39, Royal Economic Society.
    120. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    121. Amir Kia, 2005. "Overnight Monetary Policy in the United States: Active or Interest-Rate Smoothing?," Carleton Economic Papers 05-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    122. Jean-Paul Renne, 2012. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Working papers 395, Banque de France.
    123. Adam Cagliarini & Guy Debelle, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy: How Good are the Brakes?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages 167-196, Central Bank of Chile.
    124. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 2004/024, International Monetary Fund.
    125. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 278, CESifo.
    126. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Can monetary policy influence long-term interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may20.
    127. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
    128. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    129. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2011. "Determinacy, stock market dynamics and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 7-10, July.
    131. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    132. Domenech, Rafael & Ledo, Mayte & Taguas, David, 2002. "Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 431-446.
    133. Amir Kia, 2005. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 05-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    134. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Brito, Ricardo D., 2001. "Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 416, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    135. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
    136. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    137. Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Rodríguez Mendizábal, Hugo, 2008. "Interest rate dispersion and volatility in the market for daily funds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 413-440, April.
    138. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    139. Alexander Dentler, 2019. "Did the fed raise interest rates before elections?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 181(3), pages 239-273, December.
    140. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    141. Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    142. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36.
    143. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics.
    144. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    145. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    146. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Staff Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.
    147. Fangxiong Gong, 1995. "Regime-switching monetary policy and real business cycle fluctuations," Research Paper 9528, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    148. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry, 2010. "Do asymmetric central bank preferences help explain observed inflation outcomes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-540, June.
    149. R. Todd Smith & Henry van Egteren, 2005. "Interest rate smoothing and financial stability," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 147-171.
    150. Biqing Cai & Dag Tjøstheim, 2015. "Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Multivariate Null Recurrent Processes," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-24, April.
    151. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    152. K. Azim Özdemir & Özgür Özel, 2011. "Regime changes in monetary policy and the Expectation Hypothesis of the term structure in Turkey," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, May.
    153. Manfred J.M. Neumann & Jens Weidmann, 1997. "The Information Content of German Discount Rate Changes," Macroeconomics 9706006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    154. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    155. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    156. Paolo Zagaglia, 2024. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread Under the Veil of Time," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(3), pages 1-1.
    157. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 567-585, September.
    158. Alain Durré, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 163-187, May.
    159. Hanes, Christopher, 2019. "Explaining the appearance of open-mouth operations in the 1990s U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 682-701.
    160. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 977, European Central Bank.
    161. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    162. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
    163. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    164. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    165. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    166. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    167. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    168. Vázquez Jesús, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates during U.S. Post-War: A Case for the Lucas Proof Equilibrium?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    169. Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886.
    170. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
    171. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    172. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    173. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-262, September.
    174. Amir KIA, 2009. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," EcoMod2009 21500052, EcoMod.
    175. Paolo del Giovane & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 1998. "The Behaviour of the Dollar and Exchange Rates in Europe: Empirical Evidence and Possible Explanations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 328, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    176. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
    177. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    178. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "A case for interest rate smoothing," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2007, Bank of Finland.
    179. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    180. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro [How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro]," MPRA Paper 32077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    181. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Estimates of the term premium on near-dated federal funds futures contracts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    182. Hibiki Ichiue, 2005. "How Do Monetary Policy Rules Affect Term Premia?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    183. Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2022. "The COVID-19 black swan crisis: Reaction and recovery of various financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    184. Jose R. Sanchez-Fung, 2008. "The day-to-day interbank market, volatility, and central bank intervention in a developing economy," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    185. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    186. Luisa Malaguti & Costanza Torricelli, 2001. "The rational expectation dynamics of a model for the term structure and monetary policy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 24(2), pages 137-152, November.
    187. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "The Pavlovian response of term rates to Fed announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    188. Mr. Yongseung Jung & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 2003/005, International Monetary Fund.
    189. Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 952-970, April.
    190. Karolina Puławska, 2022. "Effects of the bank levy introduction on the interbank market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 844-864, January.
    191. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    192. James P. Dow, 2001. "The Demand for Excess Reserves," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(3), pages 685-700, January.
    193. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    194. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    195. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    196. C. N. V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2003. "On credit spread slopes and predicting bank risk," Working Papers (Old Series) 0314, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    197. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
    198. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a \\"discrete\\" explanation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 43-50.
    199. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    200. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    201. Selva Demiralp, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Expectations Hypothesis at the Short End of the Yield Curve," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0802, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    202. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2003. "The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements," ZEI Working Papers B 27-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    203. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    204. Petko Kalev & Brett Inder, 2006. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 33-45.
    205. Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    206. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    207. KANIK, Birol, 2011. "Learning, monetary policy and housing prices," MPRA Paper 35782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    208. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    209. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.
    210. Ramdane Djoudad & Céline Gauthier, 2003. "A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 03-19, Bank of Canada.
    211. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    212. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1996. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    213. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative Spezifikationen der deutschen Zinsstrukturkurve und ihr Informationsgehalt hinsichtlich der Inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    214. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," KAE Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    215. Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
    216. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Verhagen, W.H., 2007. "Interest rate stepping : Theory and evidence," Other publications TiSEM 1eaada04-4480-4d42-afde-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    217. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    218. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    219. Born, Benjamin & Peifer, Johannes, 2011. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 06/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    220. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using asymmetric dynamics in yield spreads," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    221. Heather Anderson, 1999. "Explanations of an empirical puzzle: what can be learnt from a test of the rational expectations hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 31-59.
    222. Ivando Silva De Faria & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2011. "Financial Market Reactions To Thebrazilian Central Bank’S Decisions," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    223. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    224. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
    225. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    226. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    227. Karel Brůna, 2006. "Glenn Rudebusch's View on the Targeting of Short-Term Interest Rates [Cílování krátkodobých úrokových sazeb pohledem Glenna Rudebusche]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 163-169.
    228. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2003. "The link between monetary policy and stock and bond markets: evidence from the federal funds futures contract," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 199-209.
    229. Marco R Barassi & Dayong Zhang, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 09-17, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    230. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    231. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    232. Krishna M. Kasibhatla, 2012. "Integration of Key Worldwide Money Market Interest Rates and the Federal Funds Rate: An Empirical Investigation," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(4), pages 125-138.
    233. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2021. "Specification errors, nonlinearities, and structural breaks in the Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1243, March.
    234. Thornton, Daniel L., 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    235. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    236. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
    237. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "The pricing of bank lending and borrowing: evidence from the federal funds market," BIS Working Papers 62, Bank for International Settlements.
    238. John S. Lapp & Douglas K. Pearce & Surachit Laksanasut, 2003. "The Predictability of FOMC Decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan Chairmanships," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(2), pages 312-327, October.
    239. Levon Goukasian & Mehdi Majbouri, 2010. "The Reaction of Real Estate–Related Industries to the Monetary Policy Actions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 355-398, June.
    240. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2011. "Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1129, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    241. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0611, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    242. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    243. Favero, Carlo A. & Carriero, Andrea & Kaminska, Iryna, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4301, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    244. Chi-Wei Su, 2009. "An empirical study of Taiwan's bond market based on the nonlinear dynamic model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 563-574.
    245. Peter Anker & Jorn Wasmund, 2005. "Signalling with official interest rates: the case of the German discount and lombard rate," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 17-31.
    246. Gallo, Lindsey A. & Hann, Rebecca N. & Li, Congcong, 2016. "Aggregate earnings surprises, monetary policy, and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 103-120.
    247. Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Staggered Loan Contracts," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    248. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
    249. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Quantile cointegration analysis of the Fisher hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 186-198.
    250. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "Modeling long-term nominal interest rates," Working Papers 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    251. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45.
    252. Anna Sznajderska, 2016. "Wpływ sposobu zarządzania płynnością, premii za ryzyko i oczekiwań na stopy rynku międzybankowego w Polsce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(1), pages 61-90.
    253. Lee, Jim, 2002. "Federal funds rate target changes and interest rate volatility," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 159-191.
    254. Rai, Anoop & Seth, Rama & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2007. "The impact of discount rate changes on market interest rates: Evidence from three European countries and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 905-923, October.
    255. Filippo COSSETTI & Francesco GUIDI, 2009. "ECB Monetary Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Euro Area: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 334, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    256. Craig H. Furfine, 1998. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    257. Reinhart, Vincent & Simin, Timothy, 1997. "The market reaction to federal reserve policy action from 1989 to 1992," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-168.
    258. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record," NBER Working Papers 6201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    259. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    260. Guo, Hui, 2004. "Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 487-507, September.
    261. J. Scott Davis & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk," Globalization Institute Working Papers 85, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    262. Castelnuovo Efrem, 2006. "The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    263. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    264. Podpiera, Jirí, 2008. "The role of ad hoc factors in policy rate settings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1003-1010, September.
    265. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    266. Joseph Dziwura & Irene Pedraza & Eli M. Remolona, 1995. "The short end of the forward convergence curve and asymmetric cat's tail convergence," Research Paper 9523, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    267. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao & Dag Tjostheim, 2015. "A New Class of Bivariate Threshold Cointegration Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    268. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
    269. Dieter Nautz & Christian J. Offermanns, 2007. "The dynamic relationship between the euro overnight rate, the ECB's policy rate and the term spread," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 287-300.
    270. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    271. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
    272. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V. Vance & Sellon, Gordon H., 2000. "The effect of monetary policy actions on exchange rates under interest-rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 601-631, October.
    273. Adrienne A. Kearney, 2003. "The Changing Probability of a Monetary Policy Response to Inflation and Employment Announcements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 565-574, Fall.
    274. Dow, James Jr., 2001. "The Recent Behavior of Adjustment Credit at the Discount Window," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 199-211, April.
    275. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2003. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," NBER Working Papers 9866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    276. VanHoose, David D. & Humphrey, David B., 2001. "Sweep accounts, reserve management, and interest rate volatility1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 387-404.
    277. Vollmer Uwe, 2004. "Wer entscheidet über Leitzinssatzänderungen?: Zur optimalen Verfassung des Zentralbankrats in einer Währungsunion," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 55(1), pages 287-312, January.
    278. Malamud, Bernard & Assane, Djeto, 2002. "Federal reserve operating strategy: exploiting "pressure" on bank reserves," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 527-532, October.
    279. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    280. Jayawickrema, Vishuddhi, 2019. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," MPRA Paper 95590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    281. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy for Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 0813, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    282. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Working Papers (Old Series) 0507, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    283. Aaron Drew & L Christopher Plantier, 2000. "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    284. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    285. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2007. "A Long‐Run Non‐Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 543-559, March.
    286. Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & N. S. Cooray, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 25-56, June.
    287. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June.
    288. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    289. Michael J. Dueker, 1999. "Measuring monetary policy inertia in target Fed funds rate changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Sep), pages 3-10.
    290. Vitor Gaspar & Gabriel Pérez Quir? & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2004. "Interest Rate Determination in the Interbank Market," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 603.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    291. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 106, Bank of England.
    292. Krishna Ramaswamy & Choong-Tze Chua & Winston T.H. Koh, 2004. "Profiting from Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 142, Econometric Society.
    293. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Interest rate forecasts: a pathology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    294. William Poole, 2008. "Market bailouts and the \\"Fed put\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Mar), pages 65-74.
    295. Su Zhou, 2007. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Eurodollar rates under interest‐rate targeting," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 90-102, May.
    296. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    297. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    298. Ric Battellino & John Broadbent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9703, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    299. Catherine Bonser-Neal & V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1997. "The effect of monetary policy actions on exchange rates under interest-rate targeting," Research Working Paper 97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    300. G. Boero & Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    301. William Poole, 2007. "Market bailouts and the "Fed put"," Speech 126, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    302. Jääskelä, Jarkko & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Anticipated monetary policy and the dynamic behaviour of the term structure of interest rates," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/1999, Bank of Finland.
    303. Jing Wang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "The reaction of international stock markets to Federal Reserve policy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, March.
    304. Amir Kia, 2011. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index: Evidence from the United States," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(2), pages 53-80, September.
    305. Lin-Yee Hin & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2016. "Short Rate Forecasting Based On The Inference From The Cir Model For Multiple Yield Curve Dynamics," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-33, March.
    306. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    307. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    308. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.
    309. Elyasiani, Elyas & Movaghari, Hadi, 2024. "Money demand function with time-varying coefficients," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    310. Eric Jondeau & Franck Sédillot, 1999. "Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 413-436, September.
    311. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    312. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    313. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    314. Avdoulas Christos & Bekiros Stelios & Lucey Brian, 2020. "The term structure of Eurozone peripheral bond yields: an asymmetric regime-switching equilibrium correction approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-23, September.
    315. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Benjamin M. Tabak?, 2007. "Characterizing The Brazilian Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    316. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
    317. Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," Working Papers EMS_2010_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    318. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    319. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    320. Yash P. Mehra, 1998. "The bond rate and actual future inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 27-47.
    321. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    322. Greg Tkacz, 2000. "Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes," Staff Working Papers 00-7, Bank of Canada.

  59. Alastair R. Hall & Glenn D. Rudebusch & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Ronald & Vieira, Flávio & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2010. "The Role of Institutions in Cross-Section Income and Panel Data Growth Models: A Deeper Investigation on the Weakness and Proliferation of Instruments," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-50, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2007. "With or Against the People? The Impact of a Bottom-Up Approach on Tax Morale and the Shadow Economy," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    3. Benno Torgler, 2006. "Trust in International Organizations: An Empirical Investigation Focusing on the United Nations," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-20, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    4. Pengyu Zhu, 2013. "Telecommuting, Household Commute and Location Choice," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(12), pages 2441-2459, September.
    5. Maarten A. Allers & Corine Hoeben, 2010. "Effects of Unit-Based Garbage Pricing: A Differences-in-Differences Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 405-428, March.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the New Phillips Curve)," Working papers 103, Banque de France.
    7. Fredriksson, Per G. & List, John A. & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Chasing the smokestack: strategic policymaking with multiple instruments," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 387-410, July.
    8. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Weshah Razzak, 1997. "The inflation-output trade-off: Is the Phillips Curve symmetric? A policy lesson from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Mokhtarian, Patricia L & Cao, Xinyu, 2008. "Examining the impacts of residential self-selection on travel behavior: A focus on methodologies," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8bz3z5qm, University of California Transportation Center.
    11. Alastair Hall & Fernanda P. M. Peixe, 2000. "A Consistent Method for the Selection of Relevant Instruments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0790, Econometric Society.
    12. Austin Nichols, 2007. "Causal inference with observational data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(4), pages 507-541, December.
    13. Bhagat, Sanjai & Bolton, Brian, 2019. "Corporate governance and firm performance: The sequel," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-168.
    14. Martin, Stephen & Claxton, Karl & Lomas, James & Longo, Francesco, 2023. "The impact of different types of NHS expenditure on health: Marginal cost per QALY estimates for England for 2016/17," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    16. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    17. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2012. "Specification tests with weak and invalid instruments," Working Papers 15063, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 26 Jun 2012.
    18. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004. "Assessing the Magnitude of the Concentration Parameter in a Simultaneous Equations Model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 29/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    19. V. Kumar & Jia Fan & Rohit Gulati & P. Venkat, 2009. "—Marketing-Mix Recommendations to Manage Value Growth at P&G Asia-Pacific," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 645-655, 07-08.
    20. Zaka Ratsimalahelo, 2003. "Strongly Consistent Determination of the Rank of Matrix," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2003_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    21. Jeffry Jacob & Thomas Osang, 2007. "Values, Beliefs and Development," Departmental Working Papers 0705, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    22. D.S. Poskitt & C.L. Skeels, 2002. "Assessing Instrumental Variable Relevance:An Alternative Measure and Some Exact Finite Sample Theory," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 862, The University of Melbourne.
    23. Joshua Angrist & Michal Kolesár, 2022. "One Instrument to Rule Them All: The Bias and Coverage of Just-ID IV," Working Papers 2022-17, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    24. Arcand, Jean-Louis & d'Hombres, Beatrice, 2006. "Testing for Separation in Agricultural Household Models and Unobservable Household-Specific Effects," MPRA Paper 1863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2005. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an Identification Robust Econometric Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2005s-30, CIRANO.
    26. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/generalized method of moments estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(4), pages 465-506, December.
    27. Jean-Marie Dufour & Joanna Jasiak, 2000. "Finite Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1536, Econometric Society.
    28. Bruno S. Frey & Benno Torgler, 2008. "Politicians: Be Killed or Survive," CESifo Working Paper Series 2483, CESifo.
    29. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    30. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    31. Zaka Ratsimalahelo, 2003. "Rank Test Based On Matrix Perturbation Theory," Econometrics 0306008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Murray Michael P., 2017. "Linear Model IV Estimation When Instruments Are Many or Weak," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
    33. Ndlovu, Godfrey & Toerien, Francois, 2020. "The distributional impact of access to finance on poverty: evidence from selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    34. Cao, Xinyu & Mokhtarian, Patricia & Handy, Susan, 2008. "Examining The Impacts of Residential Self-Selection on Travel Behavior: Methodologies and Empirical Findings," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt08x1k476, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    35. Jacques Mairesse & Bronwyn H. Hall & Benoit Mulkay, 1999. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," NBER Working Papers 7437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Alejandro Quijada, 2007. "Institutional quality and total factor productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean: exploring the unobservable through factor analysis," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(53), pages 66-119, January.
    37. Ormosi, Peter L., 2012. "Claim efficiencies or offer remedies? An analysis of litigation strategies in EC mergers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 578-592.
    38. Joe Hirschberg & Jenny Lye, 2017. "Alternative Graphical Representations of the Confidence Intervals for the Structural Coefficient from Exactly Identified Two-Stage Least Squares," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2026, The University of Melbourne.
    39. Pengyu Zhu, 2016. "Residential segregation and employment outcomes of rural migrant workers in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(8), pages 1635-1656, June.
    40. Jean‐Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    41. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2015. "Optimal Weather Conditions, Economic Growth, and Political Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-30.
    42. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 2002. "On instrumental variable estimation of semiparametric dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-9, June.
    43. Sonia Manzoor & John Straub, 2005. "The robustness of Kingma’s crowd-out estimate: Evidence from new data on contributions to public radio," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 463-476, June.
    44. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behavior in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-242, April.
    45. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2010. "Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, September.
    46. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Cross-sectional averaging and instrumental variable estimation with many weak instruments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 36-39, July.
    47. Céline CARRERE, 2003. "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trading Agreements on trade flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200310, CERDI.
    48. Isabelle Clerc & Olivier L'Haridon & Alain Paraponaris & Camelia Protopopescu & Bruno Ventelou, 2011. "Fee-for-service payment and consultation length in general practice A work-leisure trade-off model for French GPs," Post-Print hal-00711452, HAL.
    49. Lopez, Alberto, 2008. "Determinants of R&D cooperation: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 113-136, January.
    50. Faff, Robert & Gray, Philip, 2006. "On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3131-3146, November.
    51. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    53. Charles Nelson & Richard Startz & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variables Estimator," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1600, Econometric Society.
    54. Benno Torgler, 2008. "Trust in international organizations: An empirical investigation focusing on the United Nations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 65-93, March.
    55. PERRON, Benoît, 1999. "Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off," Cahiers de recherche 9901, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    56. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Mohamed, 2007. "Further results on projection-based inference in IV regressions with weak, collinear or missing instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 133-153, July.
    57. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2001. "Logique et tests d’hypothèses," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 171-190.
    58. Hitzhusen, Frederick J. & Jeanty, Pierre Wilner, 2006. "Analyzing the Effects of Conflicts on Food Security in Developing Countries: An Instrumental Variable Panel Data Approach," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21483, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    59. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
    60. Carlsson, Mikael, 2000. "Measures of Technology and the Short-Run Responses to Technology Shocks - Is the RBC-Model Consistent with Swedish Manufacturing Data?," Working Paper Series 2000:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    61. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin Sabro & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2008. "Instrument endogeneity and identification-robust tests: some analytical results," MPRA Paper 29613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    63. Rachel Connelly & Deborah DeGraff & Deborah Levison & Brian McCall, 2006. "Tackling The Endogeneity Of Fertility In The Study Of Women'S Employment In Developing Countries: Alternative Estimation Strategies Using Data From Urban Brazil," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 561-597.
    64. Benno Torgler & Sascha L. Schmidt & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Relative Income Position and Performance: An Empirical Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2006.39, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    65. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & TAAMOUTI, Mohamed, 2003. "Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments," Cahiers de recherche 08-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    66. Torgler, Benno & Schmidt, Sascha L & Frey, Bruno S., 2006. "The Power of Positional Concerns: A Panel Analysis," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt1z14v7zt, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    67. Jonathan Siverskog & Martin Henriksson, 2019. "Estimating the marginal cost of a life year in Sweden’s public healthcare sector," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(5), pages 751-762, July.
    68. Julie Le Gallo & Antonio Páez, 2013. "Using Synthetic Variables in Instrumental Variable Estimation of Spatial Series Models," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(9), pages 2227-2242, September.
    69. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    70. Benno Torgler & María A.García-Valiñas & Alison Macintyre, 2008. "Environmental Participation and Environmental Motivation," CREMA Working Paper Series 2008-19, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA), revised Jan 2009.
    71. Francesco Nicolli, 2012. "Convergence of waste-related indicators of environmental quality in Italy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 14(4), pages 383-401, October.
    72. Schwerdt, Guido & Messer, Dolores & Woessmann, Ludger & Wolter, Stefan C., 2012. "The impact of an adult education voucher program: Evidence from a randomized field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(7-8), pages 569-583.
    73. Larcker, David F. & Rusticus, Tjomme O., 2010. "On the use of instrumental variables in accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 186-205, April.
    74. Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz & Eric Zivot, 1996. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Econometrics 9612002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Benno Torgler & Sascha L. Schmidt & Bruno S. Frey, 2008. "The Power of Positional Concerns," CREMA Working Paper Series 2008-07, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    76. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Torgler, Benno, 2007. "Government accountability and fiscal discipline: A panel analysis using Swiss data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 117-140, February.
    77. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Nauges, Celine & Thomas, Alban, 2008. "Clean Air regulation and heterogeneity in US gasoline prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 106-122, January.
    78. Alessio D'Amato & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Francesco Nicolli, 2011. "Waste Sustainability, Environmental Management and Mafia: Analysing Geographical and Economic Dimensions," CEIS Research Paper 213, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Oct 2011.
    79. De Vos, Ignace & Stauskas, Ovidijus, 2024. "Cross-section bootstrap for CCE regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    80. Davis, George C. & Kim, Sung-Yong, 2002. "Measuring instrument relevance in the single endogenous regressor-multiple instrument case: a simplifying procedure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 321-325, February.
    81. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes & Jean-Louis Mucchielli, 2007. "Do tax sparing agreements contribute to the attraction of FDI in developing countries?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 14(5), pages 543-562, October.
    82. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/GMM estimation and testing," CERT Discussion Papers 0706, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    83. María García-Vega & José Herce, 2011. "Does tenure in office affect regional growth? The role of public capital productivity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 75-92, January.
    84. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Bootstrapping Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes with Predictive Regression Models," Papers 2307.14463, arXiv.org.
    85. Benno Torgler & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2006. "Does Envy Destroy Social Fundamentals? The Impact of Relative Income Position on Social Capital," Working Papers 2006.38, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    86. Laura Alfaro & Andrew Charlton, 2007. "Growth and the Quality of Foreign Direct Investment: Is All FDI Equal?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0830, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    87. Harmon, Colm & Walker, Ian, 1999. "The marginal and average returns to schooling in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 879-887, April.
    88. Paul A. Bekker & Jan van der Ploeg, 2000. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Based on Grouped Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1862, Econometric Society.
    89. DeGraff, Deborah S. & Wong, Rebeca, 2014. "Modeling old-age wealth with endogenous early-life outcomes: The case of Mexico," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 58-70.
    90. Chintrakarn, Pandej & Millimet, Daniel, 2005. "The Environmental Consequences of Trade: Evidence from Subnational Trade Flows," Departmental Working Papers 0501, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    91. Junaid, Danish & He, Zheng & Afzal, Farman, 2022. "The impact of weak formal institutions on the different phases of the entrepreneurial process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 236-249.
    92. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2001. "Logiques et tests d'hypothèses : réflexions sur les problèmes mal posés en économétrie," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-40, CIRANO.
    93. d’Artis Kancs & Julda Kielyte, 2002. "Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2002_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    94. van Dijk, H.K., 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    95. Wimanda, Rizki E. & Turner, Paul M. & Hall, Maximilian J.B., 2011. "Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-438, May.
    96. Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2011. "Commuting Time and Labour Supply: A Causal Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 5529, IZA Network @ LISER.
    97. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-02, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    98. Millimet, Daniel L. & Rangaprasad, Vasudha, 2007. "Strategic competition amongst public schools," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 199-219, March.
    99. Pengyu Zhu, 2012. "Are telecommuting and personal travel complements or substitutes?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), pages 619-639, April.
    100. Avik Chakrabarti, 2000. "Does Trade Cause Inequality?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    101. Torgler, Benno, 2007. "Trust in International Organizations: An Empirical Investigation Focusing on the United Nations," Knowledge, Technology, Human Capital Working Papers 9331, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    102. P. Chintrakarn, 2013. "Subnational trade flows and state-level energy intensity: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1344-1351, September.
    103. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
    104. Torgler, Benno & Garcia-Valinas, Maria A. & Macintyre, Alison, 2008. "Justifiability of Littering: An Empirical Investigation," Natural Resources Management Working Papers 42147, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    105. John Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    106. Peter Ormosi, 2010. "The determinants of merger litigation strategies: An empirical analysis of EC mergers," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2010-01, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    107. Ying Fang & Yang Zhao, 2013. "Do Institutions Matter? Estimating the Effect of Institutions on Econo- mic Performance in China," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    108. Daniel L. Millimet & Thomas Osang, 2007. "Do state borders matter for U.S. intranational trade? The role of history and internal migration," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 93-126, February.
    109. Wilson, Daniel J., 2000. "Estimating Returns to Scale: Lo, Still No Balance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 285-314, April.
    110. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2020. "Identifying the Causal Role of CO2 during the Ice Ages," Economics Series Working Papers 898, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    111. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 10-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    112. Palmquist, Raymond B., 2006. "Property Value Models," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 763-819, Elsevier.
    113. Park, Cheolsung & Chung, Wankyo, 2012. "Sibship Size, Birth Order, and Children's Education Indeveloping Countries : Evidence from Bangladesh," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, June.
    114. D. Klepinger & S. Lundberg & R. Plotnick, "undated". "Instrument selection: The case of teenage childbearing and women's educational attainment," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1077-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    115. Surach Tanboon, 2005. "On the Validity and Refinement of the Use of Rainfall as Instrument for Transitory Income," Working Papers 2005-10, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    116. Susanto Basu, 1998. "Technology and business cycles; how well do standard models explain the facts?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 207-269.
    117. Pablo Cotler, 2020. "Does it pay to cooperate? The case of cooperatives in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 497-517, December.
    118. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Bensch, Gunther & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Spotlight on researcher decisions: Infrastructure evaluation, instrumental variables, and specification screening," Ruhr Economic Papers 991, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    119. Norman E. Hutchison & Alla Koblyakova & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2024. "Equity Release Mortgages in the UK: Regional Characteristics of Demand and Supply," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 441-469.
    120. Alla Koblyakova & Larisa Fleishman & Orly Furman, 2022. "Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 48-74, July.
    121. Košak, Marko & Li, Shaofang & Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2015. "Quality of bank capital and bank lending behavior during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    122. Pablo Selaya, 2005. "To aid or not to aid: Foreign aid and productivity in cross-country regressions," Development Research Working Paper Series 03/2005, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    123. Colin Vance & Ralf Hedel, 2007. "The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 575-588, September.
    124. Xiao, Shufeng & Zhao, Amy Tong, 2026. "Time matters: Curvilinear effects of underperformance duration on the innovation behavior of firms," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    125. Oliver Hinz & Shawndra Hill & Amit Sharma, 2022. "Second Screening—The Influence of Concurrent TV Consumption on Online Shopping Behavior," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 809-823, September.
    126. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
    127. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
    128. Danielsson, Jon & Love, Ryan, 2004. "Feedback trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24760, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    129. Pengyu Zhu & Liping Wang & Yanpeng Jiang & Jiangping Zhou, 2018. "Metropolitan size and the impacts of telecommuting on personal travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 385-414, March.
    130. Chintrakarn, Pandej & Millimet, Daniel, 2006. "Subnational Trade Flows and State-Level Energy Intensity," Departmental Working Papers 0601, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    131. Bhagat, Sanjai & Bolton, Brian, 2008. "Corporate governance and firm performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 257-273, June.
    132. Allen, Linda & Gottesman, Aron A. & Peng, Lin, 2012. "The impact of joint participation on liquidity in equity and syndicated bank loan markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 50-78.
    133. Hirschberg, Joe & Lye, Jenny, 2017. "Inverting the indirect—The ellipse and the boomerang: Visualizing the confidence intervals of the structural coefficient from two-stage least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 173-183.
    134. Kershen Huang & Chenguang Shang, 2024. "Does informal governance matter to institutional investors? Evidence from social capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 433-457, May.
    135. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    136. Colin Vance & Ralf Hedel, 2008. "On the Link Between Urban Form and Automobile Use: Evidence from German Survey Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(1), pages 51-65.
    137. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Vance, Colin & Bensch, Gunther, 2022. "Spotlight on researcher decisions – Infrastructure evaluation, instrumental variables, and first-stage specification screening," OSF Preprints sw6kd, Center for Open Science.
    138. Antoine Gervais, 2015. "Trade and growth: A gravity approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 453-470, October.
    139. Miles Livingston & Lei Zhou, 2016. "Information Opacity And Fitch Bond Ratings," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 329-358, December.
    140. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    141. Guy Debelle & Bruce Preston, 1995. "Consumption, Investment and International Linkages," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9512, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    142. Millimet, Daniel L. & Collier, Trevor, 2008. "Efficiency in public schools: Does competition matter?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 134-157, July.
    143. Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Various Asymptotic Approximations To The Distribution Of Instrumental Variables Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 309-336.
    144. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    145. Dolores Messer & Guido Schwerdt & Ludger Woessmann & Stefan C. Wolter, 2013. "Labor Market Effects of Adult Education Vouchers: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0094, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    146. Aniket A. Kawatkar & Joel W. Hay & William Stohl & Michael B. Nichol, 2013. "Incremental Expenditure Of Biologic Disease Modifying Antirheumatic Treatment Using Instrumental Variables In Panel Data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 807-823, July.

  60. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 146, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    2. José Alberto Fuinhas, 2003. "O canal do crédito, o sobreendividamento e as crises económicas," Working Papers de Gestão, Economia e Marketing (Management, Economics and Marketing Working Papers) 03/2003, Universidade da Beira Interior, Departamento de Gestão e Economia (Portugal).
    3. Honkapohja, Seppo & Koskela, Erkki, 2002. "The Economic Crisis of the 1990s in Finland," Discussion Papers 683, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Ingo Fender, 2000. "Corporate hedging: the impact of financial derivatives on the broad credit channel of monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 94, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Fabio Schiantarelli & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2000. "Form of Ownership and Financial Constraints:Panel Data Evidence From Flow of Funds and Investment Equations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 175-192, June.
    6. Ingo Fender, 2000. "The impact of corporate risk management on monetary policy transmission: some empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 95, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Carlos Andrés Cano Gamboa & Marcela Orozco Chávez & Luis Alfonso Sánchez Betancur, 2008. "Mecanismo de transmisión de las tasas de interés en Colombia (2001-2007)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    8. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2018. "The international credit channel of U.S. monetary policy transmission to developing countries: Evidence from trade data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 33-41.
    9. Graciela Moguillansky, 2002. "Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. F. De Graeve & O. De Jonghe & R. Vander Vennet, 2004. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/261, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-20.
    12. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Belegri-Roboli, Athena & Economakis, George & Milios, John G., 2005. "The Determinants of Investment Activity in Greece (1960-’99)," MPRA Paper 74548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool & K. Raabe, 2005. "New evidence on the firm size effects in US monetary policy transmission," Working Papers 05-11, Utrecht School of Economics.
    14. Munehisa Kasuya, 2003. "Regime-Switching Approach to Monetary Policy Effects: Empirical Studies using a Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    15. Attiya Y. Javid & Robina Iqbal, 2010. "Corporate Governance in Pakistan : Corporate Valuation, Ownership and Financing," Governance Working Papers 22830, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    16. Beck,Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovann, 2001. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2707, The World Bank.
    17. Chundakkadan, Radeef & Sasidharan, Subash, 2020. "Central bank's liquidity provision and firms' financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 245-255.
    18. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Philippon, Thomas & Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123061, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Simon Hall, 2001. "Financial accelerator effects in UK business cycles," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 150, Bank of England.
    21. Du, Qingyuan & Hong, Shengjie & Wang, Yao & Wang, Yaqi, 2026. "Exchange rate, foreign currency debt and firm-level investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    22. Galindo, Arturo & Micco, Alejandro, 2005. "Creditor Protection and Credit Volatility," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1932, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1999. "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Ghosh, Saibal & Sensarma, Rudra, 2004. "Does monetary policy matter for corporate governance? Firm-level evidence for India," MPRA Paper 19756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    26. Collard , F. & Patrick F ve & Julien Matheron, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," Working papers 190, Banque de France.
    27. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm balance sheet liquidity, monetary policy shocks, and investment dynamics," Economics Working Papers 1872, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    28. Abhishek Bhardwaj & Krishnamurthy Subramanian & Prasanna Tantri, 2022. "Relationship Banking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from India," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2341-2375, December.
    29. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2021. "Monetary dynamics in a network economy," Post-Print halshs-03165773, HAL.
    30. Santiago Villegas Salazar, 2009. "Evidencia del canal de la hoja de balance a través de la inversión de las empresas colombianas (1995-2007)," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 27(60), pages 168-215.
    31. Jiří Schwarz & Martin Pospíšil, 2018. "Bankruptcy, Investment, and Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 99-121, March.
    32. Bose, Sukanya, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Credit Channel: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 28486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2011. "Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission in India - How Effective and Long is the Lag?," MPRA Paper 50899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    35. Fabio Bagliano & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2004. "The cyclical behaviour of inventories: European cross-country evidence from the early 1990s recession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2031-2044.
    36. Emmanuel O. Eyo & Merrian A. Nwaogu & Michael E. Agenson, 2020. "Agricultural Credit Guarantee in Nigeria and the Uncertainties of the Macroeconomic Environment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 20-29.
    37. Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
    38. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Esteban G�mez & Diego V�squez & Camilo Zea, 2005. "Derivative Markets' Impact On Colombian Monetary Policy," Borradores de Economia 2277, Banco de la Republica.
    40. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Hoffmann, Mathias & Schabert, Andreas, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 995-1016, May.
    41. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Katherine Avram, 1998. "Implications Of New Payments Technology For Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 17(4), pages 54-68, December.
    43. Hasan Engin DURAN & Umut ERDEM, 2014. "Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy: Turkey Case," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 133-144.
    44. Motonishi, Taizo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1999. "Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan during the 1990s: Financial or Real?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 181-200, September.
    45. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    46. Oscar Landerretche Moreno, 2007. "Creation and Destruction: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers wp246, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    47. Tatsuki Okamoto & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2017. "Empirical Evidence from a Japanese Lending Survey within the TVP-VAR Framework: Does the Credit Channel Matter for Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 1709, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    48. Ali Ozdagli, 2014. "Financial frictions and the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    49. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman & Horváthová, Eva, 2008. "Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic," Discussion Papers in Economics 7191, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    51. Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 1996. "Form of ownership and financial constraints : panel data evidence from leverage and investment equations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1629, The World Bank.
    52. Natalia Nehrebecka & Maria Jarosz, 2012. "Wpływ sytuacji finansowej polskich przedsiębiorstw na inwestycje w kapitał trwały," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 15-38.
    53. Alfred V. Guender, 1998. "Is There a Bank‐Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in New Zealand?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(226), pages 243-265, September.
    54. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    55. Michael S. Gibson, 1997. "The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission: evidence from a model of bank behavior that incorporates long-term customer relationships," International Finance Discussion Papers 584, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    56. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Central banking and financial innovation. A survey of the modern literature," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 263-297.
    57. Takeda, Tony & Rocha, Fabiana & Nakane, Márcio I., 2005. "The Reaction of Bank Lending to Monetary Policy in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(1), January.
    58. Huang, Zhangkai, 2003. "Evidence of a bank lending channel in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 491-510, March.
    59. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Central banking and financial innovation. A survey of the modern literature," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(222), pages 263-297.
    60. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, September.
    61. Rodrigo Troncoso, 2011. "Credit channel and flight to quality in emerging markets: evidence from Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 183-197, August.
    62. Nguyen, Bao Khac Quoc & To, Bao Cong Nguyen & Nguyen, Nham Thi Hong, 2022. "Unexpected money growth, nonfinancial firms as large shareholders and investment-cash flow relationship: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    63. K. Raabe & I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool, 2006. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Theoretical Model on the Role of Capital Investment Expenditures," Working Papers 06-14, Utrecht School of Economics.
    64. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andre Tiomo, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment in France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00112523, HAL.
    65. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Eleni Angelopoulou & Heather D. Gibson, 2007. "The Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 53, Bank of Greece.
    67. Moguillansky, Graciela, 2003. "Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America," Series Históricas 7800, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    68. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2016. "Regional asymmetries in monetary policy transmission: The case of the Greek regions," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(5), pages 795-815, August.
    69. Moncef Guizani, 2021. "Macroeconomic conditions and investment–cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4277-4294, July.
    70. Díaz, Roger Aliaga & Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "On the firm-level implications of the Bank Lending Channel of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2038-2055, October.
    71. Fachat, Christian, 2000. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 3/2000, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    72. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1993. "Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 4485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Boyan Jovanovic & Masako Ueda, 1996. "Contracts and Money," NBER Working Papers 5637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Keith Anderson & Anup Chowdhury & Moshfique Uddin, 2025. "Piotroski's Fscore under varying economic conditions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1261-1307, April.
    75. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2007. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    76. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "New Economy, Old Central Banks?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-087/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    77. Ampudia, Miguel & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Vermeulen, Philip & Violante, Giovanni L., 2018. "Monetary policy and household inequality," Working Paper Series 2170, European Central Bank.
    78. Nan‐Kuang Chen & Hung‐Jen Wang, 2007. "The Procyclical Leverage Effect Of Collateral Value On Bank Loans—Evidence From The Transaction Data Of Taiwan," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(2), pages 395-406, April.
    79. Martin Pospisil & Jiri Schwarz, 2014. "Bankruptcy, Investment, and Financial Constraints: Evidence from a Post-Transition Economy," Working Papers 2014/01, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    80. Li, Weixue & Wang, Sipei & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong) & Xu, Changsheng, 2024. "Shadow banking, investment and interest rate transmission: Evidence from macroprudential policy in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-133.
    81. Ghosh, Saibal & Ghosh, Saurabh, 2006. "Impact of Liquidity constraint on Firms’ Investment Decisions," MPRA Paper 17181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Mateut, Simona & Bougheas, Spiros & Mizen, Paul, 2006. "Trade credit, bank lending and monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 603-629, April.
    83. Santiago Villegas Salazar, 2009. "Evidencia del canal de la hoja de balance a través de la inversión de las empresas colombianas (1995-2007)," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 27(60), pages 168-215, December.
    84. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "The effects of Monetary Policy shocks across the Greek Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa12p507, European Regional Science Association.
    85. Adam B. Ashcraft & Murillo Campello, 2002. "Borrowers' financial constraints and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates," Staff Reports 153, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    86. Ezgi Kurt, 2025. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Firms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(8), pages 2159-2188, December.
    87. Juda Agung, 2000. "Financial Structure, Firms Investments and the Channels of Monetary Policy In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 3(1), pages 146-178, June.
    88. Bhaumik, Sumon K. & Kutan, Ali M. & Majumdar, Sudipa, 2016. "How Successful Are Banking Sector Reforms in Emerging Market Economies? Evidence from Impact of Monetary Policy on Levels and Structures of Firm Debt in India," IZA Discussion Papers 9992, IZA Network @ LISER.
    89. Bhat Ramesh, 2004. "Substitution of trade credit for bank credit: empirical study of financing behaviour of Indian," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-05-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    90. Jith Jayaratne & Donald P. Morgan, 1997. "Information problems and deposit constraints at banks," Research Paper 9731, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    91. Daniel Kalt, 2001. "The Credit Channel as a Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Some Microeconometric Evidence for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 137(4), pages 555-578, December.
    92. Leonardo Gambacorta & Simonetta Iannotti, 2005. "Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates monetary shocks?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 566, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    93. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    94. Kudlyak, Marianna & Sánchez, Juan M., 2017. "Revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-69.
    95. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    96. Oscar Landerretche, 2007. "Job flows in chile," Working Papers wp240, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    97. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 1999. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: a model of the credit channel," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 129, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    98. Berk, Jan Marc, 2001. "New economy, old central banks? Monetary transmission in a new economic environment," Serie Research Memoranda 0032, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    99. Auel, Matias Carlos & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2011. "Macroeconomic relevance of credit channels: Evidence from an emerging economy under inflation targeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 965-979, May.
    100. Saibal Ghosh & Saurabh Ghosh, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Affect A Firm’s Investment Through Leverage? Micro Evidence for India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(1), pages 17-31.
    101. Georgopoulos, George & Hejazi, Walid, 2009. "Financial structure and the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy across industries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33.
    102. Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "Business fixed investment: evidence of a financial accelerator in Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 213-231, July.
    103. Simon Hall & Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2002. "The role of corporate balance sheets and bank lending policies in a financial accelerator framework," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 166, Bank of England.
    104. Allan D. Brunner & Steven B. Kamin, 1995. "Bank lending and economic activity in Japan: did \"financial factors\" contribute to the recent downturn?," International Finance Discussion Papers 513, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    105. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Maennig, Wolfgang & Osterheider, Tobias, 2016. "Industrial structure and preferences for a common currency: the case of the EURO referendum in Sweden," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66158, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    106. Eleni Angelopoulou & Heather D. Gibson, 2009. "The Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(304), pages 675-703, October.
    107. Jia Liu, 2004. "Macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 939-945.
    108. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-081/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    109. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 1995.
    110. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & André Tiomo, 2002. "Investment, the Cost of Capital and Monetary Policy in the Nineties in France: A Panel Data Investigation," Working papers 96, Banque de France.
    111. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2005. "Inside the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1737-1759, October.
    112. Silvo Dajcman & Josip Tica, 2017. "The broad credit and bank capital channels of monetary policy transmission in the core and peripheral Euro Area," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 249-275.
    113. Ryo Kato & Takashi Ui & Tsutomu Watanabe, 1999. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Japanese Experience in the 1990's," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    114. Rumen Dobrinsky & Nikolay Markov, 2003. "Policy Regime Change And Corporate Credit In Bulgaria: Asymmetric Supply And Demand Responses," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-607, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    115. Raquel Lago Gonzalez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "Determinants of access to external finance: evidence from Spanish firms," Working Paper Series 2007-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    116. Atanasova, Christina V. & Wilson, Nicholas, 2004. "Disequilibrium in the UK corporate loan market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 595-614, March.
    117. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Behavior in India," IMF Working Papers 2005/025, International Monetary Fund.
    118. Winston Moore & Roland Craigwell, 2004. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 25, Society for Computational Economics.
    119. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    120. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "Capital requirements and bank behaviour: the impact of the Basel Accord," BCBS Working Papers 01, Bank for International Settlements.
    121. Anna Bottasso, 1996. "Firms’ Financial Structure And Real Decisions: A Critical Survey Of The Empirical Literature," CERIS Working Paper 199623, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    122. Ulrike Neyer, 2007. "Asymmetric Information and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 428-446, August.
    123. Seungjun Baek, 2020. "Uncertainty, Incentives, and Misallocation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1821-1851, October.
    124. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    125. Ghosh, Saibal, 2010. "Firm Characteristics, Financial Composition and Response to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 24717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    126. Grégory Levieuge, 2015. "Explaining and forecasting bank loans. Good times and crisis," Working papers 566, Banque de France.
    127. Yang, Xiaolou, 2011. "Trade credit versus bank credit: Evidence from corporate inventory financing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 419-434.
    128. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Banca centrale e innovazione finanziaria. Una rassegna della letteratura recente," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(220), pages 345-385.
    129. Hendricks, Torben W. & Kempa, Bernd, 2009. "The credit channel in U.S. economic history," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-68.
    130. Charles X. Hu, 1999. "Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-39.
    131. Takashi Nagahata & Toshitaka Sekine, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Firm Investment after the Collapse of the Asset Price Bubble: An Investigation Using Japanese Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    132. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco, 2005. "Protección a los acreedores e inestabilidad del crédito," Research Department Publications 4402, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    133. Bojan Markovic, 2006. "Bank capital channels in the monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 313, Bank of England.
    134. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 2015. "Credit supply disruptions: from credit crunches to financial crisis," Current Policy Perspectives 15-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    135. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kishor, 2013. "Bank lending channel in India: evidence from state-level analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1307-1331, December.
    136. Kandrac, John, 2012. "Monetary policy and bank lending to small firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 741-748.
    137. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2002. "The industry effects of monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
    138. Ogawa, Kazuo, 2000. "Monetary Policy, Credit, and Real Activity: Evidence from the Balance Sheet of Japanese Firms," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 385-407, December.
    139. Charles S. Morris & Gordon H. Sellon, 1995. "Bank lending and monetary policy: evidence on a credit channel," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q II), pages 59-75.
    140. Driffield, Nigel & Pal, Sarmistha, 2001. "The East Asian crisis and financing corporate investment: is there a cause for concern?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 507-527.
    141. Stöß, Elmar, 1996. "Die Finanzierungsstruktur der Unternehmen und deren Reaktion auf montäre Impulse: Eine Analyse anhand der Unternehmensbilanzstatistik der Deutschen Bundesbank," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    142. Nenavath Sreenu, 2025. "The role of digital finance and financing barriers in green innovation: a Study of India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 1-26, October.
    143. Luigi Oddo & Mile Bosnjak, 2021. "A comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels in the U.S: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(38), pages 4448-4463, August.

  61. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Gerlach & Matthew S. Yiu, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Estimates of Economic Activity in Hong Kong," Working Papers 162004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    3. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Jaime Martínez-Martín & Elena Rusticelli, 2020. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," Working Papers 2019, Banco de España.
    6. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    11. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Identifying US turning points revisited: the panel model with the regime switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 893-897.
    12. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    13. Chun-Chang Lee & Chih-Min Liang & Hsing-Jung Chou, 2013. "Identifying Taiwan real estate cycle turning points- An application of the multivariate Markov-switching autoregressive Model," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 1-1.
    14. Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    16. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 453-458.
    17. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    19. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    20. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
    21. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    23. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric R. Sims, 2021. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9165, CESifo.
    24. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2005. "Ciclos Económicos Sincronizados y Uniones Monetarias en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana [Business Cycles Synchronisation and Monetary Union in Central American and the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 72104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0059, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    26. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    27. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    28. Marjan Petreski, 2010. "An Overhaul of a Doctrine: Has Inflation Targeting Opened a New Era in Developing-country Peggers?," FIW Working Paper series 057, FIW.
    29. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    30. João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    31. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    32. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    33. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    34. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    35. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    36. Xyngis, Georgios, 2017. "Business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence for scale-dependent risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 43-65.
    37. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, April.
    38. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2010. "A Coincident Index, Common Factors, and Monthly Real GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 27-46, February.
    39. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January.
    40. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    41. Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    42. Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "Do the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9907-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    43. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," Ensayos sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 58, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    44. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
    45. Bruno Giancarlo & Edoardo Otranto, 2004. "Dating the Italian BUsiness Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," ISAE Working Papers 41, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    46. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2001. "Latent Leading and Coincident Factors Model with Markov-Switching Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-13.
    47. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    48. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    49. Ferrara, Laurent & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    50. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    51. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    52. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2016. "Is Real Per Capita State Personal Income Stationary? New Nonlinear, Asymmetric Panel-Data Evidence," Working papers 2016-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    53. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
    54. Agnieszka Rabiej & Dominika Sikora & Andrzej Torój, 2023. "How regional business cycles diffuse across space and time: evidence from a Bayesian Markov switching panel of GDP and unemployment in Poland," KAE Working Papers 2023-082, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    55. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
    56. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Enrique Sentana, 2014. "A Spectral EM Algorithm for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2014_1411, CEMFI.
    57. Zhang, Wei & He, Jie & Ge, Chanyuan & Xue, Rui, 2022. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring using mixed frequency data: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    58. Richard Startz, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0064, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    59. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2018_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    60. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    61. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Working Papers hal-03373425, HAL.
    62. Seuk Wai Phoong & Siok Kun Sek, 2013. "A Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model on Oil Price and Gold Price Effect on Stock Market Returns," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 5(7), pages 331-336.
    63. Basistha, Arabinda, 2025. "A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    64. Mario Eduard Hidalgo Villota, 2024. "Business cycles in Colombia: stylized facts," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 25(2), pages 26-56.
    65. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    66. Moradi, Alireza, 2016. "Modeling Business Cycle Fluctuations through Markov Switching VAR:An Application to Iran," MPRA Paper 73608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Arie Marom & Yigal Menashe & Tanya Suchoy, 2003. "The State-of-The-Economy Index and The probability of Recession: The Markov Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.05, Bank of Israel.
    68. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic cycle Theory," MPRA Paper 74646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Yagi, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Masako, 2015. "Non-linear transition mechanism of production and Japanese development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 34-47.
    70. Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
    71. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    72. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    73. Strohsal, Till & Proaño Acosta, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    74. Pena, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 2004. "Forecasting with nonstationary dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 291-321, April.
    75. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    76. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    77. Ken Nyholm, 2007. "A New Approach to Predicting Recessions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(1), pages 27-42, February.
    78. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-17, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    79. Franses Philip Hans & Paap Richard, 2013. "Common large innovations across nonlinear time series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 251-263, May.
    80. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    81. Reinhart, Vincent & Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    82. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
    83. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    84. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 18698, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    85. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 681, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    86. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
    87. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    88. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2006. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 217-241, March.
    89. Milena Hoyos & Mario Galindo, 2011. "Comparación de los modelos SETAR y STAR para el índice de empleo industrial colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo, Escuela de Economía 8347, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    90. Theodore M. Crone, 2004. "A redefinition of economic regions in the U.S," Working Papers 04-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    91. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    92. Oliver Snellman, 2026. "Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis With a Transformer Network," Papers 2601.12039, arXiv.org.
    93. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
    94. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    95. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2001. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 571, CESifo.
    96. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2012. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Working papers 384, Banque de France.
    97. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    98. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    99. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    100. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "News, noise, and estimates of the \"true\" unobserved state of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    101. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2021. "Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 76-96, September.
    102. Weinert, Gunter & Wohlers, Eckhardt & Bruck, Christiane & Fieber, Eva-Ulrike & Hinze, Jorg & Kirchesch, Kai & Matthies, Klaus & Schumacher, Christian, 2003. "Zwischen Hoffen und Bangen - Konjunktur 2003," Report Series 26082, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    103. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    104. Francisco Corona & Gerardo Leyva & Graciela González-Farías & Edgar René Benavidez-Maruri, 2025. "Dating the Mexican Business Cycles Since 1980 by Disentangling the Monthly Economic Activity," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 21(1), pages 1-23, November.
    105. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    106. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2010. "Estimation Methods Comparison of SVAR Models with a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 279-314, September.
    107. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    108. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Thompson, Samuel B., 2006. "Volatility comovement: a multifrequency approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 179-215.
    109. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Awon Almajali & Alessandra Canepa, 2024. "Navigating Energy Market Cycles: Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 35-48, September.
    110. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    111. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
    112. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2006. "Un indicateur de retournement conjoncturel pour la France : une application du modèle à facteur avec changements de régimes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 101-114.
    113. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
    114. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    115. Hinze, Jorg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Fruhindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Fruhindikatoren fur Konjunk-turprognosen - Eine Analyse fur Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26253, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    116. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Sectoral Survey-based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Working Papers 320, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    117. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
    118. Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Yayi Yan, 2018. "Regime switching panel data models with interative fixed effects," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    119. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    120. J V Hansen & R D Nelson, 2003. "Forecasting and recombining time-series components by using neural networks," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(3), pages 307-317, March.
    121. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    122. Koehler, Anne & Diebold, Francis X. & Giogianni, Lorenzo & Inoue, Atsushi, 1996. "Software review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 309-315, June.
    123. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    124. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
    125. Hasan Sahin & Onur Ozsoy, 2008. "Arms Race Between Greece And Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 209-216.
    126. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    127. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model," Working Papers 22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
    128. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity," Working Papers 2008/03, Latvijas Banka.
    129. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2026. "Switching Macroeconomic Growth and Volatility: Evidence from a Mean-Variance Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," PSE Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    130. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    131. Jose Cancelo, 2004. "Modeling the European cycle with factor structure and regime switching," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 87-99, May.
    132. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    133. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    134. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    135. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    136. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    137. Barigozzi, Matteo & Massacci, Daniele, 2025. "Modelling large dimensional datasets with Markov switching factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    138. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    139. Weihs, Claus & Röhl, Michael C. & Theis, Winfried, 1999. "Multivariate classification of business phases," Technical Reports 1999,26, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    140. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    141. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    142. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    143. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    144. Thomas M. FULLERTON & Macie Z. SUBIA, 2017. "Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 33-52, March.
    145. Francis X. Diebold / Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(2), pages 55-65, August.
    146. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2013. "Conditional Volatility Asymmetry Of Business Cycles: Evidence From Four Oecd Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 33-56, September.
    147. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature: forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    148. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Takashi Onodera, 2001. "A New Composite Index of Coincident Economic Indicators in Japan: How can we improve the forecast performance? ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    149. Ken Nyholm & Riccardo Rebonato, 2008. "Long-horizon yield curve projections: comparison of semi-parametric and parametric approaches," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1597-1611.
    150. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
    151. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
    152. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    153. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    154. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
    155. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
    156. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," Ensayos Sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 13858, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    157. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1999. "Does Seasonality Influence the Dating of Business Cycle Turning Points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, January.
    158. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    159. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    160. Ho, Kin-Yip & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2009. "Volatility dynamics of the US business cycle: A multivariate asymmetric GARCH approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2856-2868.
    161. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    162. Ilse Botha, 2010. "A Comparative Analysis Of The Synchronisation Of Business Cycles For Developed And Developing Economies With The World Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 192-207, June.
    163. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Monitoring the Economy of the Euro Area: A Comparison of Composite Coincident Indexes," Working Papers 319, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    164. Vaish, Chakit, 2025. "Praxis Core: A Multi-Layered Structural Intelligence Engine for Foreign Exchange Execution Under Entropic Regime Shifts," MPRA Paper 125718, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2025.
    165. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    166. Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    167. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    168. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    169. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2001. "Markov regime switching and unit root tests," Working Papers 2001-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    170. Velasco, Sofia, 2024. "Asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: a Bayesian quantile factor augmented VAR," Working Paper Series 2983, European Central Bank.
    171. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2024. "MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models," Papers 2411.08188, arXiv.org.
    172. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    173. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    174. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    175. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
    176. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    177. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    178. Sébastien Le Coent & Erwan Gautier & Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 83-99.
    179. Weinert, Günter, 2003. "Zwischen Hoffen und Bangen - Konjunktur 2003," HWWA Reports 224, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    180. Christina V. Atanasova & Jianhua Gang, 2008. "The Decline In The Volatility Of The Business Cycles In The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 14-36, September.
    181. Wang, Jin-ming & Gao, Tie-mei & McNown, Robert, 2009. "Measuring Chinese business cycles with dynamic factor models," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 89-97, March.
    182. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    183. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    184. Sebastian Fossati, 2017. "Testing for State-Dependent Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2017-09, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    185. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 89(Q 1), pages 25-37.
    186. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    187. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
    188. Anusha, "undated". "Evaluating reliability of some symmetric and asymmetric univariate filters," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-030, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    189. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2009. "Do coincident indicators have one-factor structure?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May.
    190. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Business cycles and monetary policy asymmetry: An investigation using Markov-switching models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 297-306.
    191. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    192. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    193. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    194. Diebold, Giorgianni, & Inoue, "undated". "Stamp 5.0: A Review," Home Pages _058, University of Pennsylvania.
    195. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
    196. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    197. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    198. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    199. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020. "Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
    200. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    201. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    202. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    203. Barraez, Daniel & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2009. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation: Looking at the future during uncertain times," MPRA Paper 106550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    204. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    205. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    206. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
    207. Hinze, Jörg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Frühindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen - Eine Analyse für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 236, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    208. Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Accurate Subsampling Intervals of Principal Components Factors," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23974, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    209. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    210. Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
    211. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 58, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    212. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
    213. Giampaoli, Noemi & Cucculelli, Marco & Sullo, Valerio, 2024. "Business and financial cycle across regimes: Does financial stress matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    214. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 425, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    215. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    216. Alexander James & Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa & Xiao Qiao, 2019. "Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm," Papers 1903.03202, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    217. Laura Brown & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Unemployment variation over the business cycles: a comparison of forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 497-511.
    218. J V Hansen & J B McDonald & R D Nelson, 2006. "Some evidence on forecasting time-series with support vector machines," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(9), pages 1053-1063, September.
    219. Ordu-Akkaya, Beyza Mina & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and financialization of commodities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    220. Alvaro Cencini, 2012. "Is there a common cause to economic and financial crises?," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Sergio Rossi (ed.), Modern Monetary Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 193-217, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    221. Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2001. "Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-368.
    222. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2007. "Measuring business cycle turning points in Japan with the Markov Switching Panel model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 263-270.
    223. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Omay, Tolga, 2022. "Convergence of per capita energy consumption around the world: New evidence from nonlinear panel unit root tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    224. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
    225. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    226. Konstantin Kholodilin & Vincent Wenxiong Yao, 2006. "Modelling the structural break in volatility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 417-422.
    227. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2024. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    228. Marjan Petreski, 2011. "A Markov Switch to Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Peggers with a Focus on the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 57-75.
    229. Zhu, Junjun & Xie, Shiyu, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks, Long-term Bonds and Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 28236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    230. Harm Bandholz, 2005. "New Composite Leading Indicators for Hungary and Poland," ifo Working Paper Series 3, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    231. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2001. "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(1), May.

  62. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1993. "Is there a bank credit channel for monetary policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Cizkowicz, Piotr & Rzonca, Andrzej, 2011. "Interest rates close to zero, post-crisis restructuring and natural interest rate," MPRA Paper 36989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Simon Hall, 2001. "Financial accelerator effects in UK business cycles," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 150, Bank of England.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 4821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1994. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et crédit, une application à 5 pays de l'OCDE," Working Papers 1994-03, CEPII research center.
    7. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1993. "Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 4485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael J. Dueker & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "Asymmetry in the prime rate and firms' preference for internal finance," Working Papers 1994-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et crédit bancaire. Une application à trois pays de l'OCDE," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(2), pages 393-413.
    11. Heshmati, Almas & Lindstrom, Ossi, 2005. "Interacting demand and supply conditions in European bank lending," Discussion Papers 11859, MTT Agrifood Research Finland.
    12. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 1995.
    13. Florio, Anna, 2006. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy in a matching model with a balance sheet channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 375-391, June.
    14. Wako Watanabe, 2004. "Does a Large Loss of Bank Capital Cause Ever-greening or Flight to Quality?: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0618, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    15. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  63. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1993. "New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Behr Andreas & Bellgardt Egon, 2000. "Investitionsverhalten und Liquiditätsrestringiertheit. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse / Investment Behaviour and Liquidity Constraints. A Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(3), pages 257-283, June.
    2. Balázs Égert, 2017. "Regulation, Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Chung Tran & Sebastian Wende, 2017. "On the Marginal Excess Burden of Taxation in an Overlapping Generations Model," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2017-652, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    4. Robert S. Chirinko, 2001. "Comment: Kommentar zu: Corporate Investment, Asymmetric Information and Agency Costs in the UK," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(2), pages 261-261.
    5. Mark Lasky, 2018. "CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09," Working Papers 54871, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    7. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Francois Gourio, 2007. "Disasters and Recoveries: A Note on the Barro-Rietz Explanation of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
    11. He, Xinhua, 2005. "Aggregate business investment in China and UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 733-742, September.
    12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.
    14. Suvadee Rungsomboon, 2005. "Deterioration of Firm Balance Sheet and Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel Data on Thai Firms," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 335-356, September.
    15. Kataria, Karin & Curtiss, Jarmila & Balmann, Alfons, "undated". "Drivers of Agricultural Physical Capital Development: Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses," Working papers 122842, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    16. Jonathan N. Millar & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2012. "Time-to plan lags for commercial construction projects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 1997. "Towards a compact, empirically-verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 197-230, December.
    18. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    19. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2009. "Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 813-835, September.
    20. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Karl Whelan & Stacey Tevlin, 2003. "Explaining the investment boom of the 1990s," Open Access publications 10197/202, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    22. Jacques Mairesse & Bronwyn H. Hall & Benoit Mulkay, 1999. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," NBER Working Papers 7437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Mr. Joong S Kang, 2014. "Balance Sheet Repair and Corporate Investment in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2014/141, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
    25. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2016. "The Corporate Saving Glut and Falloff of Investment Spending in OECD Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 777-799, November.
    26. Lynne Cockerell & Steven Pennings, 2007. "Private Business Investment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    27. Emanuel Kopp, 2018. "Determinants of U.S. Business Investment," IMF Working Papers 2018/139, International Monetary Fund.
    28. John M. Roberts, 2003. "Modeling aggregate investment: a fundamentalist approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Charles Himmelberg & Alessandra del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Paola Rota, 2005. "Investment and Time to Plan: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in a Panel of Italian Firms," Working Papers 2005.54, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    30. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 257, Bank of England.
    31. Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1282-1315, November.
    32. Lucyna Gornicka, 2018. "Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2018/247, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 1996. "What Do Micro Data Reveal About the User Cost Elasticity?: New Evidence on the Responsiveness of Business Capital Formation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_175, Levy Economics Institute.
    34. Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2001. "Time-To-Build and Convex Adjustment Costs," IMF Working Papers 2001/009, International Monetary Fund.
    35. George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan D. Woodland, 2015. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5644, CESifo.
    36. Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
    37. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    38. Hart, Chad Edward, 1999. "Examining agricultural investment," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013567, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    39. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Investment Slowdown in Denmark: Diagnosis and Policy Options," IMF Working Papers 2018/161, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Philip Vermeulen & Michael Ehrmann & Jorge Martínez-Pagés & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: New evidence from micro data on firms and banks," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00119489, HAL.
    43. David O Lucca, 2007. "Resuscitating Time-to-Build," 2007 Meeting Papers 909, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    44. Lenarčič, Črt & Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2020. "Determinants of firm investment: Evidence from Slovenian firm-level data," MPRA Paper 100478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Wishnu Mahraddika, 2019. "Does international reserve accumulation crowd out domestic private investment?," Departmental Working Papers 2019-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    46. Jin, Zhong & Teahan, Brittany, 2009. "Iowa’s Tax Incentive Programs Used by Biofuel Producers Tax Credits Program Evaluation Study," MPRA Paper 14795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Witold J. Henisz & Bennet A. Zelner, 2004. "Interest Groups, Veto Points And Electricity Infrastructure Deployment," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-711, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    48. Russell E. Triplett & Nilufer Ozdemir & Paul M. Mason, 2022. "Structural Change in the Investment Function," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 220-236, January.
    49. Jason G. Cummins & Trevor S. Harris & Kevin A. Hassett, 1994. "Accounting Standards, Information Flow, and Firm Investment Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Hobdari, Bersant & Jones, Derek C. & Mygind, Niels, 2009. "Capital investment and determinants of financial constraints in Estonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 344-359, December.
    51. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    52. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    53. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    54. Chung Tran, 2014. "Temptation and Taxation with Elastic Labor," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-617, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    55. Hashmat Khan & Charlotta Groth, 2007. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Carleton Economic Papers 07-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    56. Karl Whelan, 2001. "A two-sector approach to modeling U.S. NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    58. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Balanced growth revisited : a two-sector model of economic growth," Open Access publications 10197/247, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    59. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2006. "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 310, Bank of England.
    60. Cummins, Jason G. & Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 1996. "Tax reforms and investment: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1-2), pages 237-273, October.
    61. Martinsson, Gustav, 2009. "Finance and R&D Investments - is there a debt overhang effect on R&D investments?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 174, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    62. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2019. "Does international reserve accumulation crowd out domestic private investment?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 39-50.
    63. Thum-Thysen, Anna & Voigt, Peter & Bilbao-Osorio, Beñat & Maier, Christoph & Ognyanova, Diana, 2019. "Investment dynamics in Europe: Distinct drivers and barriers for investing in intangible versus tangible assets?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-88.
    64. Alves, Pana & Dejuan, Daniel & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Can survey-based information help to assess investment gaps in the EU?," EIB Working Papers 2019/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    65. Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "Business fixed investment: evidence of a financial accelerator in Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 213-231, July.
    66. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2004. "UK business investment: long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 27, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    67. Klaus Abberger, 2005. "The Use of Qualitative Business Tendency Surveys for Forecasting Business Investment in Germany," ifo Working Paper Series No.13, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    68. Stepan Bahteev & Sophia Turkanova & Andrey Pushkarev & Oleg Mariev, 2021. "Modelling the influence of Tobin's Q and cash flows on the capital investments of Russian firms," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 12513370, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    69. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.
    70. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
    71. Colombo, Emilio & Stanca, Luca, 2006. "Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint: evidence from Hungarian manufacturing firms," MPRA Paper 18708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Balázs Egert, 2017. "Regulation, Institutions and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence From OECD Countries," Working Papers hal-04141655, HAL.
    73. Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, 2003. "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 189, Bank of England.
    74. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2004. "UK Business Investment and the User Cost of Capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 72-93, September.
    75. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed Investment Spending'. The results reported in this," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
    76. Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Forecasting U.S. Investment," IMF Working Papers 2010/246, International Monetary Fund.
    77. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    78. Gerhard Fenz & Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider & Klaus Vondra & Walter Waschiczek, 2015. "Causes of declining investment activity in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 12-34.
    79. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    80. Neil H. Buchanan, 1996. "Taxes, Saving, and Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_177, Levy Economics Institute.
    81. Eleni Angelopoulou & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2012. "Estimating the Euler Equation for Aggregate Investment with Endogenous Capital Depreciation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 1057-1078, January.
    82. Emilio Colombo & Luca Stanca, 2006. "Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 171-198, March.
    83. Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Y a-t-il eu surinvestissement au Canada durant la seconde moitié des années 1990?," Staff Working Papers 05-5, Bank of Canada.
    84. Toshio Watanabe, 2021. "Reconsideration of the IS–LM model and limitations of monetary policy: a Tobin–Minsky model," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 103-129, April.
    85. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2008. "Shifting sentiments in Firm Investment: An Application to the Oil Industry," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/12, University of Stavanger.
    86. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Kunal Sen, 1996. "Reforms And Investment In India," Departmental Working Papers 1996-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    87. Erdal ATUKEREN, 2010. "Interactions Between Public and Private Investment: Evidence from Developing Countries," EcoMod2004 330600011, EcoMod.
    88. Kruiniger, Hugo, 2000. "On the solution of the linear rational expectations model with multiple lags," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 535-559, April.
    89. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2005. "Returns To Equity, Investment And Q: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 32-57, September.
    90. Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & Pelin Berkmen & Pavel Lukyantsau & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Hanni Schoelermann, 2015. "Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?," IMF Working Papers 2015/032, International Monetary Fund.
    91. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2014. "Institutional and structural determinants of investment worldwide," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 160-177.
    92. Mark J. Holmes, 2010. "An Alternative Perspective on Tobin's Q and Aggregate Investment Expenditure," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 23-28, April.

  64. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1992. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 193, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Hashem Dezhbakhsh & Daniel Levy, 1994. "Periodic properties of interpolated time series," Post-Print hal-02382750, HAL.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Post-Print hal-00956937, HAL.
    3. Ghulam Ghouse & Saud Ahmad Khan & Atiq Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "ARDL as an Elixir Approach to Cure for Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Time Series," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-15, November.
    4. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    5. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    7. Hall, Thomas E., 1995. "Price cyclicality in the natural rate-nominal demand shock model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 257-272.
    8. Gary B. Magee, 2004. "The Importance of Being British? Imperial Factors and the Growth of British Exports, 1870-1960," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 923, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    10. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2014. "Improved variance estimation of maximum likelihood estimators in stable first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-448.
    11. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    12. Mehmet Dalkir, 2005. "A New Method For Estimating The Order Of Integration Of Fractionally Integrated Processes Using Bispectra," Econometrics 0507001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jul 2005.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christian Macaro, 2007. "The Impact of Vintage on the Persistence of Gross Domestic Product Shocks," CEIS Research Paper 101, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    15. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "Is the trend in post-WW II US real GDP uncertain or non-linear?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 348-355, March.
    16. Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Discussion Papers 18/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    17. Scott E. Harrington & Tong Yu, 2003. "Do Property‐Casualty Insurance Underwriting Margins Have Unit Roots?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 715-733, December.
    18. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    19. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries," Working Papers 36/2006, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    20. Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
    21. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
    22. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 954, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    23. Kilian, Lutz & Caner, Mehmet, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    24. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Detrending and the money-output link: International evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 19-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    27. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Persistence in real GDP: Evidence from Europe and the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(3), pages 1376-1388.
    28. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2007. "The Unit Root Hypothesis for Aggregate Output May Not Hold after All: New Evidence from a Panel Stationarity Test with Multiple Breaks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 642-658, January.
    29. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    30. Krzysztof Beck, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization In European Union: Regional Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 785-815, December.
    31. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis," Macroeconomics 9508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2012. "A note of the uncertain trend in US real GNP: Evidence from robust unit root tests," Post-Print hal-00956936, HAL.
    33. Sebastian Fossati, 2011. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates and a Structural Break in the Trend Function," Working Papers 2011-10, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    34. Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel, 2016. "Are output fluctuations transitory or permanent in Ghana?," MPRA Paper 70270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Döpke, Jörg, 1993. "Alternative Ansätze zur Schätzung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials," Kiel Working Papers 591, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    36. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    37. Blerina Vika & Ilir Vika, 2021. "Forecasting Albanian Time Series with Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 10, September.
    38. Razzak, Weshah, 2003. "A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 1970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    39. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006.
    41. Razzak, Weshah, 2024. "Measuring the Deviations from Perfect Competition: International Evidence (second version)," MPRA Paper 120200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Feb 2024.
    42. Diebold & Senhadji, "undated". "Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trend in U.S. GNP, Yet Again," Home Pages _054, University of Pennsylvania.
    43. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    44. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2009. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860–1988," Working Papers hal-00422502, HAL.
    45. Krzysztof Bartosik & Jerzy Mycielski, 2016. "Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 435-462.
    46. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
    47. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain & Giovanni Caggiano, 2008. "Nelson-Plosser revisited: the ACF approach," Working Paper series 18_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    48. Pohl, Walter & Schmedders, Karl & Wilms, Ole, 2016. "Asset prices with non-permanent shocks to consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 152-178.
    49. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
      • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    50. Deb, Surajit, 2004. "Terms of Trade and Investment Behaviour in Indian Agriculture: A Cointegration Analysis," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 1-22.
    51. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?," Working Papers 1999-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    52. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 13-44.
    53. Azhar Iqbal & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 987-1014.
    54. Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-229, January.
    55. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
    56. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    57. Weshah Razzak & Elmostafa Bentour, 2012. "Do Developing Countries Benefit from Foreign Direct Investments?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_07, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    58. Razzak, Weshah, 2023. "Measuring the Deviations from Perfect Competition: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 119605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Mariola Pilatowska, 2010. "Choosing a Model and Strategy of Model Selection by Accumulated Prediction Error," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 107-119.
    60. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    61. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Have Collapses in Infrastructure Spending Led to Cross-Country Divergence in per Capita GDP?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-013, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    63. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    64. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "Words that shake traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 915-934.
    65. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Estimating and testing rational expectations models when the trend specification is uncertain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1485-1525, October.
    66. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    67. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2009. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," MPRA Paper 19963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Tom Stark, 1998. "A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    69. Jonathan Hill & Liang Peng, 2014. "Unified Interval Estimation For Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 282-297, May.
    70. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. Kim, Jae & Choi, In, 2015. "Unit Roots in Economic and Financial Time Series: A Re-Evaluation based on Enlightened Judgement," MPRA Paper 68411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 1999. "Re-examining long-run purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-266, February.
    73. Lawrence E. Raffalovich, 1994. "Detrending Time Series," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 22(4), pages 492-519, May.
    74. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    75. Sarris, Alexander H., 2000. "Has world cereal market instability increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 337-350, June.
    76. Bruno Coric & Blanka Peric Skrabic, 2020. "Income Tax Evasion: Recovery from Economic Disasters," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp676, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    77. Philip Inyeob Ji & Jae H. Kim, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Linkages in the Pacific Basin Region," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    78. H. Naci Mocan & Hope Corman, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June.
    79. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
    80. Macaro, Christian, 2008. "The impact of vintage on the persistence of gross domestic product shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 301-308, March.
    81. Razzak Weshah A. & Bentour El M., 2013. "Do Developing Countries Benefit from Foreign Direct Investments? An Analysis of Some Arab and Asian Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 357-388, December.
    82. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2009. "The Convergence Hypothesis For Oecd Countries Reconsidered: Panel Data Evidence With Multiple Breaks, 1870–2003," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(4), pages 552-574, July.
    83. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
    84. Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.
    85. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December.
    86. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Multiple trend shifts and unit roots in US state income levels: implications for long-run growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 641-661, June.
    87. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    88. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1998. "The international transmission of economic fluctuations:: Effects of U.S. business cycles on the Canadian economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 257-287, April.
    89. David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.
    90. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    91. Erotokritos Varelas & Ulrich Woitek, 1995. "Is the Greek Economy Periodic?: a Multivariate Description of the Business Cycle Stylized Facts," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 64(1), pages 114-124.
    92. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
    93. Ruxandra Prodan, 2004. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
    94. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2015. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1145, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    95. Pascalau, Razvan, 2008. "Unit Roots Tests with Smooth Breaks: An Application to the Nelson-Plosser Data Set," MPRA Paper 7220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Hossain, Ferdaus, 1995. "Current account determination in the intertemporal framework: an empirical analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000011939, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    97. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    98. Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
    99. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.

  65. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "The Lucas critique revisited: assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 130, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel & Schaller, Huntley, 1994. "Irreversible investment and costs of adjustment," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9416, CEPREMAP.
    2. Jason G. Cummins & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "The Tax Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 4703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  66. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142.
    3. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working papers 2012-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
    5. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2001/171, International Monetary Fund.
    8. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Gaetano Antinolfi & Celso Brunetti, 2019. "Economic volatility and financial markets: The case of mortgage‐backed securities," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 85-113, May.
    10. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
    11. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    12. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    13. Michael W. Klein, 1993. "Timing is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2015. "The Great Moderation in historical perspective.Is it that great?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10825, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Serge Calabre, 2003. "La dynamique des prix et des marchés de matières premières : analyses univariées versus faits stylisés analytiques," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 21-35.
    16. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 331-345, June.
    17. Murphy, Alan P, 2005. "An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in US Hours Worked," CESifo Working Paper Series 3767, CESifo.
    20. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
    22. Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    25. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Mr. Paul Cashin, 2004. "Caribbean Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2004/136, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 255-259.
    28. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    29. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    30. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2001. "Prewar and Postwar Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An International Perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 615-631, October.
    31. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    32. C. O'Sullivan, 1993. "What Everyone Needs to Know About the Australian Business Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    33. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    34. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    35. Joseph H. Davis, 2005. "An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790's," NBER Working Papers 11157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle," Staff Reports 126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2014. "A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928," Post-Print hal-01122519, HAL.
    38. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 2000. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing - commentary," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 69-74.
    40. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    41. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
    43. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1165, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    44. Chan Guk Huh, 1993. "Have recessions become shorter?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
    45. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 2001/068, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 4005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Abderrezak, Ali, 1997. "Consumer expectations and cyclical durations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 843-857.
    49. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M.Caporale, 2005. "Long Memory at the Long Run and at the Cyclical Frequencies:Modelling Real Wages in England: 1260-1994," Faculty Working Papers 18/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    50. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    51. James P. Cover & Boyi Zhuang, 2021. "Life with habit and expectation: A new explanation of equity premium puzzle," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
    52. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
    54. U. Michael Bergman & Lars Jonung, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 402, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    55. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Yoon, Bohyun, 2019. "Why has the size effect disappeared?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 256-276.
    56. Candelon, Bertrand & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2001. "Fractional integration and business cycle features," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,46, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    57. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    58. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Li, Bin, 2023. "Asymmetric spillover of geopolitical risk and oil price volatility: A global perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    59. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
    60. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    61. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    62. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "On seasonality and business cycle durations: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-290, August.
    63. Yılmaz, Oğuzhan, 2024. "Financial development and declining growth volatility: Explanations and an empirical study with the latest FD index," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 457-470.
    64. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2018. "Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 749-784, September.

  67. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991. "Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Working Papers 91-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    2. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    3. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    5. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    6. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo Sousa, 2019. "The Benevolence of Time, Sound Macroeconomic Environment and Governance Quality on the Duration of Sovereign Ratings Phases," Working Papers 34, European Stability Mechanism.
    7. Giuseppe Vita & Livio Ferrante, 2021. "Is legislation grease or sand to economic growth? An econometric analysis using data from Italian regions before and after the 2008 crisis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 541-561, June.
    8. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
    10. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    11. Philip M. Bodman, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
    12. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    13. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Working Papers hal-03373425, HAL.
    14. Harman, Yvette S. & Zuehlke, Thomas W., 2007. "Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 350-362.
    15. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    17. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: \\"watchful waiting\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23.
    18. Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    20. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
    21. George Koutsoumanis & Vítor Castro, 2023. "The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1667-1698, April.
    22. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
    23. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2004. "Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 325-334.
    24. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
    25. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "Financial Markets' Shutdown And Reaccess," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 562-571, January.
    26. Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    27. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    28. Thomas C. Melzer, 1997. "To conclude: keep inflation low and, in principle, eliminate it," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
    29. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8379, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    31. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 512-526.
    33. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2009. "Analytical Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall under regime-switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 138-151, September.
    34. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    35. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
    36. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
    37. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    38. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.
    39. Vitor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    40. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2006. "Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan's business cycles?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 109-128.
    41. Di Guilmi, C. & Gaffeo, E. & Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2005. "International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 5-16.
    42. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    43. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    44. Lim, Eun-Son, 2025. "The effects of inflation targeting on price stability: The case of South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    45. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
    46. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "Economic and political drivers of the duration of credit booms," NIPE Working Papers 15/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    49. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    50. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re‐Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1969-1994, December.
    51. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2019. "A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    52. Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-17, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    53. Imed Medhioub, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553.
    54. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    55. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
    56. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Time Series Modeling with Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: MCMC Inference, Software and Applications," Econometrics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Timmermann, Allan & Lunde, Asger, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    58. du Plessis, S. A., 2004. "Stretching the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 685-701, July.
    59. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
    60. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
    61. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
    62. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "Political and institutional determinants of credit booms," CeBER Working Papers 2018-09, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    63. James Payne & Thomas Zuehlke, 2006. "Duration dependence in real estate investment trusts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 413-423.
    64. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
    65. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run," Working Papers 2016-28, CEPII research center.
    66. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    67. Larry W. Taylor, 2007. "Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 423-441.
    68. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
    69. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    70. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    72. Canepa, Alessandra & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Housing Market Cycles in Large Urban Areas," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201903, University of Turin.
    73. Liu, Ming, 2000. "Modeling long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-171, November.
    74. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
    75. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
    76. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M, 2021. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: a simple and flexible framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    77. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Booms, Busts, and Normal Times in the Housing Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 25-45, January.
    78. Yılmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity - Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.

  68. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    2. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2006. "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Faculty Working Papers 03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Aaron Smallwood & Stefan C. Norrbin, 2008. "An Encompassing Test of Real Interest Rate Equalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 114-126, February.
    5. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Infant mortality rates: time trends and fractional integration," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 589-602, March.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "The Relationship between Healthcare Expenditure and Disposable Personal Income in the US States: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1486, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Residual-based tests for fractional cointegration: A Monte Carlo study," Technical Reports 1998,09, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    9. SangKun Bae & Mark J. Jensen, 1998. "Long-Run Neutrality in a Long-Memory Model," Macroeconomics 9809006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 1999.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Persistence and Nonlinearities in the US Federal Funds Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 11913, CESifo.
    11. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    12. Monge, Manuel & Cristóbal, Enrique, 2021. "Terrorism and the behavior of oil production and prices in OPEC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
    15. Strauß, Hubert, 2002. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Aggregate Exports: Empirical Evidence for the United States, Canada, and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1101, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    16. João Ricardo Faria & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Gil-Alana & Estefania Mourelle, 2020. "Self-employment by gender in the EU: convergence and clusters," Working Papers 2020/22, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    17. Christian Fischer & Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1345-1359.
    18. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J & O’Brien, Edward J., 2006. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M Miller, 2017. "Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 78-103, January.
    20. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 2004. "Fractional cointegration, low frequency dynamics and long-run purchasing power parity: an analysis of the Australian dollar over its recent float," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 593-605.
    21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & C. James Orlando, 2015. "Linkages between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5523, CESifo.
    22. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Puertolas, Francisco, 2024. "Modelling profitability of private equity: A fractional integration approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    23. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    24. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Carmona-González, Nieves & Sánchez-Martín, María-Pilar & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2024. "Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 390-403.
    25. Rolando Peláez, 2012. "The housing bubble in real-time: the end of innocence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 211-225, January.
    26. Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Kiseok Nam, 2005. "Inflation and Structural Change in 50 Developing Countries," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 461-471, December.
    27. Thabo M. Mokoena & Rangan Gupta & Reneé Van Eyden, 2009. "Testing For Ppp Using Sadc Real Exchange Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 351-362, September.
    28. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    29. Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2011. "On the Predictability of Stock Prices: A Case for High and Low Prices," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0136, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    30. Alessandra Spremolla, 2001. "Persistencia en el Desempleo de Uruguay," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(113), pages 73-89.
    31. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
    32. C. P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Investment and saving in Angola and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(44), pages 4793-4800, March.
    33. Manuel Monge & Rafael Hurtado & Juan Infante, 2025. "Time Series Analysis of the Dynamics of Merger and Acquisition Cycles in the Global Water Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, March.
    34. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2024. "Fractional cointegration between energy imports to the EURO area and exchange rates to the US dollar," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 859-882, February.
    35. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2024. "A Time Series Analysis of Corporate Profit Rates in Selected Developed Economies: Asymmetries, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 303-338, June.
    36. Twm Evans, 2006. "Efficiency tests of the UK financial futures markets and the impact of electronic trading systems," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1273-1283.
    37. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Jalalifar, Saba, 2021. "Financing the green projects: Market efficiency and volatility persistence of green versus conventional bonds, and the comparative effects of health and financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    38. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    39. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Esin Cakan, 2015. "Structural Breaks, Long Memory, or Unit Roots in Stock Prices: Evidence from Emerging Markets," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 13-33, April.
    40. Monge, Manuel & Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Poza, Carlos, 2024. "Chinese economic behavior in times of covid-19. A new leading economic indicator based on Google trends," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    41. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, 2006. "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    42. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Olanrewaju I. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2016. "Market Efficiency of Baltic Stock Markets: A Fractional Integration Approach," Working Papers 201617, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    43. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.
    44. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 954, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    45. Cheng-few Lee & Keshab Shrestha & Robert Welch, 2007. "Relationship between Treasury bills and Eurodollars: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 163-185, February.
    46. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    47. Goodness C. Aye & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2016. "The Efficiency of the Art Market: Evidence from Variance Ratio Tests, Linear and Nonlinear Fractional Integration Approaches," Working Papers 201610, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    48. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Xuan Vinh Vo & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Adeolu O. Adewuyi, 2022. "Modelling cryptocurrency high–low prices using fractional cointegrating VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 489-505, January.
    49. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
    50. Clifford M. Hurvich & Bonnie K. Ray, 1995. "Estimation Of The Memory Parameter For Nonstationary Or Noninvertible Fractionally Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 17-41, January.
    51. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
    52. Christophe André & Tsangyao Chang & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Current Account Sustainability in G7 and BRICS: Evidence from a Long Memory Model with Structural Breaks," Working Papers 201705, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    53. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    54. Hassler, Uwe & Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A Residual-Based LM Test for Fractional Cointegration," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 37318, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    55. Ibrahim Onour, "undated". "North Africa Stock Markets: Analysis of Unit Root and Long Memory Process," API-Working Paper Series 0906, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    56. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    57. Reisen Valderio A & Cribari-Neto Francisco & Jensen Mark J, 2003. "Long Memory Inflationary Dynamics: The Case of Brazil," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, October.
    58. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8674, CESifo.
    59. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Robert Mudida, 2015. "Testing the Marshall–Lerner Condition in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 253-268, June.
    60. John Goddard & David Mcmillan & John Wilson, 2008. "Dividends, prices and the present value model: firm-level evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 195-210.
    61. Francis Ahking, 2010. "Non-parametric tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 439-456, October.
    62. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2018. "Testing Fractional Unit Roots with Non-linear Smooth Break Approximations using Fourier functions," MPRA Paper 90516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    64. Wang, Fang, 2023. "Do emerging art market segments have their own price dynamics? Evidence from the Chinese art market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 318-331.
    65. Marcelo Mello & Roberto Guimaraes-Filho, 2007. "A note on fractional stochastic convergence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(16), pages 1-14.
    66. Florczak, Waldemar, . "Instytucjonalne uwarunkowania przestępczości w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2012(10).
    67. Oluwasegun B. Adekoya, 2021. "Persistence and efficiency of OECD stock markets: linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1415-1433, September.
    68. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    69. Skare, Marinko & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Porada-Rochon, Małgorzata, 2025. "Isolating financial cycles using the fractional cyclical model in selected economies: 1970–2019," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-77.
    70. Curi, Andréa Zaitune & Menezes Filho, N. A., 2006. "A Relação entre o Desempenho Escolar e os Salários no Brasil," Insper Working Papers wpe_51, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    71. Lee, Yun Shin, 2014. "Management of a periodic-review inventory system using Bayesian model averaging when new marketing efforts are made," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 278-289.
    72. Aloui, Chaker & Mabrouk, Samir, 2010. "Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2326-2339, May.
    73. Belbute, José M. & Pereira, Alfredo M., 2020. "Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    74. Arielle Beyaert, 2004. "Fractional Output Convergence, with an Application to Nine Developed Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 280, Econometric Society.
    75. J. D. Byers & D. A. Peel, 2001. "Volatility persistence in asset markets: long memory in high/low prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 253-260.
    76. Johan Lyhagen, 2006. "The seasonal KPSS statistic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(13), pages 1-9.
    77. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya, 2022. "Modelling Persistence and Non-Linearities in the US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 9554, CESifo.
    78. Shih-Cheng Lee & Chien-Ting Lin & Min-Teh Yu, 2013. "A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 535-547, October.
    79. Greg Tkacz, 2002. "Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects," Staff Working Papers 02-40, Bank of Canada.
    80. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mungo, Julius, 2007. "Long memory persistence in the factor of Implied volatility dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    81. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2021. "The Relationship between Prices and Output in the UK and the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8970, CESifo.
    82. Cho, Cheol-Keun & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2015. "A test of the null of integer integration against the alternative of fractional integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 217-237.
    83. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2022. "Commodity and financial markets’ fear before and during COVID-19 pandemic: Persistence and causality analyses," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    84. Robinson, Peter M. & Yajima, Yoshihiro, 2002. "Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 217-241, February.
    85. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    86. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Canadian REITs and Stock Prices: Fractional Cointegration and Long Memory," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 441-462.
    87. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    88. Bensalma, Ahmed, 2015. "New Fractional Dickey and Fuller Test," MPRA Paper 65282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    89. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2020. "Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 8744, CESifo.
    90. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Francisco Puertolas-Montanes, 2023. "Profitability of private equity: mean reversion and transitory shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 458-471, June.
    91. Christian Fischer & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of Ge," Faculty Working Papers 15/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    92. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
    93. Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Carcel, Hector, 2015. "Testing fractional persistence and non-linearities in the natural gas market: An application of non-linear deterministic terms based on Chebyshev polynomials in time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 240-245.
    94. Nuruddeen Usman & Martins Apinran, 2024. "Policy rates in ECOWAS: are they fractionally cointegrated?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-15, November.
    95. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000.
    96. Monge, Manuel & Poza, Carlos & Borgia, Sofía, 2022. "A proposal of a suspicion of tax fraud indicator based on Google trends to foresee Spanish tax revenues," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1-12.
    97. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006.
    98. Luis Gil-Alana & Rolando Peláez, 2008. "The persistence of earnings per share," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 425-439, November.
    99. Luis Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2014. "Mean Reversion in Agricultural Commodity Prices in India," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(4), pages 385-398, November.
    100. Moonsoo Park & Yanhong Jin & Alan Love, 2011. "Dynamic and contemporaneous causality in a supply chain: an application of the US beef industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4785-4801.
    101. Barışık, Salih & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2009. "Hysteresis in unemployment: evidence from sector-specific unemployment in Turkey," MPRA Paper 71483, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    102. Ibrahim A. ONOUR & Bruno S. SERGI, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting volatility in global food commodity prices," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(3), pages 132-139.
    103. Chikhi, Mohamed & Benhmad, François, 2026. "Investigating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock markets volatility in USA and Europe," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    104. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 393-405, March.
    105. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Pablo Vicente Trejo, 2021. "Unemployment Persistence in Europe: Evidence from the 27 EU Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 9392, CESifo.
    106. Asai Manabu & Peiris Shelton & McAleer Michael & Allen David E., 2020. "Cointegrated Dynamics for a Generalized Long Memory Process: Application to Interest Rates," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    107. Rashid, Abdul & Husain, Fazal, 2012. "On the modeling of exchange rate: some evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 47547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    108. Goodness C. Aye & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge against Inflation in the UK? Evidence from a Fractional Cointegration Approach Over 1257 to 2016," Working Papers 201753, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    109. Emma Iglesias & Garry Phillips, 2005. "Analysing one-month Euro-market interest rates by fractionally integrated models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 95-106.
    110. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    111. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Poza, Carlos, 2020. "High and low prices and the range in the European stock markets: A long-memory approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    112. Goliński, Adam & Madeira, João & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2025. "Return predictability, dividend growth, and the persistence of the price–dividend ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 92-110.
    113. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & David R Heres & L Catalina Martínez-Hernández, 2014. "Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-12, November.
    114. Thabo M. Mokoena & Rangan Gupta & Reneé Van Eyden, 2009. "Testing For Fractional Integration In Southern African Development Community Real Exchange Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(4), pages 531-537, December.
    115. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Modelling the U.S. interest rate in terms of I(d) statistical models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 475-486, September.
    116. Mark J. Jensen, 2009. "The Long‐Run Fisher Effect: Can It Be Tested?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 221-231, February.
    117. McElroy, Tucker S. & Politis, Dimitris N., 2012. "Distribution Theory for the Studentized Mean for Long, Short, and Negative Memory Time Series," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt35c7r55c, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    118. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2014. "BRICS countries: real interest rates and long memory," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 409-419.
    119. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "How fearful are Commodities and US stocks in response to Global fear? Persistence and Cointegration analyses," MPRA Paper 109829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    120. Mudida, Robert & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2024. "The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourism in Africa," MPRA Paper 123141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    121. Peroni, Chiara, 2009. "Testing Linearity in Term Structures," MPRA Paper 16471, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    122. Salah A. Nusair, 2006. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Industrialized Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 425-457, November.
    123. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Carmen Lafuente & Luis A. Gil-Alana & María Jesús González-Blanch, 2025. "Persistence in the Unemployment and Inflation Relationship. Evidence from 38 OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 1236-1257, March.
    124. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    125. Martin, Vance L. & Wilkins, Nigel P., 1999. "Indirect estimation of ARFIMA and VARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 149-175, November.
    126. Steven Clark & T. Coggin, 2011. "Are U.S. stock prices mean reverting? Some new tests using fractional integration models with overlapping data and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 373-391, April.
    127. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida & Nuruddeen Abu, 2021. "Market efficiency and volatility persistence of cryptocurrency during pre‐ and post‐crash periods of Bitcoin: Evidence based on fractional integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1318-1335, January.
    128. Uwe Hassler & Matei Demetrescu & Adina Tarcolea, 2011. "Asymptotic normal tests for integration in panels with cross-dependent units," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(2), pages 187-204, June.
    129. Juan Infante & Marta Rio & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2023. "Measuring Persistence in the US Equity Gender Diversity Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 175-182, June.
    130. Joseph Ross, 2021. "Stationarity Statistics on Rolling Windows," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 655-691, February.
    131. Krämer, Walter, 1997. "Kointegration von Aktienkursen," Technical Reports 1997,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    132. Cuñado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2012. "Testing for persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in the Nasdaq index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4675-4685.
    133. Geetha Mayadunne & Merran Evans & Brett Inder, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(2), pages 145-156, June.
    134. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    135. Wang, Dabin & Tomek, William G., 2004. "Commodity Prices And Unit Root Tests," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20141, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    136. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
    137. Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno & Manuel Monge, 2023. "Coronavirus, Vaccination and the Reaction of Consumer Sentiment in The United States: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-8, April.
    138. Lima, Luiz Renato & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Reis Gomes, Fábio Augusto, 2010. "Empirical Evidence on Convergence Across Brazilian States," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    139. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "Central Bank Policy Rates: Are they Cointegrated?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6389, CESifo.
    140. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "The Housing Markets in Spain and Portugal: Evidence of Persistence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-32, November.
    141. Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2022. "The COVID-19 black swan crisis: Reaction and recovery of various financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    142. Salah A. Nusair, 2003. "Testing The Validity Of Purchasing Power Parity For Asian Countries During The Current Float," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 129-147, December.
    143. Krishnankutty, Raveesh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2011. "Are the Bombay stock Exchange Sectoral indices of Indian stock market cointegrated? Evidence using fractional cointegration test," MPRA Paper 48590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2011.
    144. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2011. "Learning generates Long Memory," ESSEC Working Papers WP1113, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    145. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Shinhye Chang & Mehmet Balcilar & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: a fractional integration approach with structural breaks," NCID Working Papers 06/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    146. Martin-Valmayor, Miguel A. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan, 2023. "Energy prices in Europe. Evidence of persistence across markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    147. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
    148. Cristofaro, Lorenzo & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei & Wanke, Peter, 2021. "Modelling stock market data in China: Crisis and Coronavirus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    149. Mármol, Francesc, 1998. "Searching for fractional evidence using combined unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10613, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    150. Krämer, Walter, 1997. "Fractional integration and the augmented dickey-fuller test," Technical Reports 1997,06, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    151. Pérez, Ana & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2001. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS ds010101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    152. Claude Diebolt & Vivien Guiraud, 2005. "A Note On Long Memory Time Series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 39(6), pages 827-836, December.
    153. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Nicola Rubino & Inmaculada Vilchez, 2024. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations in the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 231-254, August.
    154. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    155. Agnese, Pablo & Garcia-del-Barrio, Pedro & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Precious Metal Prices: A Tale of Four U.S. Recessions," IZA Discussion Papers 16012, IZA Network @ LISER.
    156. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    157. Rashid, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 27209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    158. da Silva, Cleomar Gomes & Leme, Maria Carolina da Silva, 2011. "An Analysis of the Degrees of Persistence of Inflation, Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rate in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    159. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    160. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011. "An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
    161. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2022. "Gold and Silver as Safe Havens: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10084, CESifo.
    162. Abdur Chowdhury, 1995. "The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 131-144, April.
    163. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2011. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Post-Print hal-00711450, HAL.
    164. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Productivity and GDP: International Evidence of Persistence and Trends Over 130 Years of Data," Working Papers 202170, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    165. Gawon Yoon, 2009. "Purchasing power parity and long memory," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 55-61.
    166. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2024. "Persistence of the Sovereign Debt Components and Debt Sustainability: Some Evidence for the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11409, CESifo.
    167. Ignacio Olmeda & Joaquin Pérez, 1995. "Non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 217-248, May.
    168. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    169. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & de Gracia, F. Perez, 2005. "A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2633-2654, October.
    170. Claude Diebolt, 2005. "Long Cycles Revisited. An Essay in Econometric History," Working Papers 05-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    171. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "High and Low Intraday Commodity Prices: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 90518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    172. Monge, Manuel, 2021. "U.S. historical initial jobless claims. Is it different with the coronavirus crisis? A fractional integration analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 88-95.
    173. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    174. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alfonso Dominguez & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Testing for Persistence in Real House Prices in 47 Countries from the OECD Database," CESifo Working Paper Series 11662, CESifo.
    175. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(6), pages 5017-5031, December.
    176. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2016. "Long Range Dependence in the Indian Stock Market: Evidence of Fractional Integration, Non-Linearities and Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 199-215, December.
    177. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Maria Carolina da Silva Leme, 2008. "Inflation and Interest Rate: Which one is more persistent in Brazil?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181224190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    178. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    179. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Gurkan S. Oguz, 1996. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Long Term International Interest Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 315., Boston College Department of Economics.
    180. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 1999. "Fractional cointegration, long memory, and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-316, September.
    181. Dolado, Juan J. & Marmol, Francesc, 1997. "On the properties of the Dickey-Pantula test against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-16, November.
    182. Berta Marcos Ceron & Manuel Monge, 2024. "Luxury goods and services in recession periods. Time trends and persistence analysis," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 588-595, December.
    183. Cheng-Feng Lee & Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2012. "A revisit on real interest rate parity hypothesis -- simulation evidence from efficient unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3089-3099, August.
    184. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
    185. Luis Alberiko A. Gil-Alana & María Jesús González-Blanch & Carlos Poza, 2025. "Labour market mismatches in G7 countries: a fractional integration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 736-752, February.
    186. Waldemar Florczak, 2012. "Instytucjonalne uwarunkowania przestępczości w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 97-126.
    187. Gonzalo, Jesús & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1996. "On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally integrated," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4542, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    188. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan & Martín-Valmayor, Miguel Angel, 2023. "Persistence and long run co-movements across stock market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 347-357.
    189. Ji, In Bae & Chung, Chanjin, 2012. "Causality Between Captive Supplies and Cash Market Prices in the U.S. Cattle Procurement Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-11, December.
    190. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    191. W.H. Buiter & U Patel, 1995. "Budgetary Aspects of Stabilization and Strucutral Adjustment in India: The Painful Road to a Sustainable Fiscal-Financial-Monetary Plan," CEP Discussion Papers dp0247, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    192. Batuo Enowbi, Michael & Guidi, Francesco & Mlambo, Kupukile, 2009. "Testing the weak-form market efficiency and the day of the week effects of some African countries," MPRA Paper 19116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    193. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 631-640, September.
    194. Abdol Soofi, 1998. "A fractional cointegration test of purchasing power parity: the case of selected members of OPEC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 559-566.
    195. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carmen Lafuente, 2020. "Persistence of the Misery Index in African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 825-841, February.
    196. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    197. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    198. Berta Marcos Ceron & Manuel Monge, 2023. "Consumer Sentiment and Luxury Behavior in the United States before and after COVID-19: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-14, August.
    199. Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Rational bubbles and volatility persistence in India stock market," MPRA Paper 18545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    200. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "The persistence and asymmetric volatility in the Nigerian stock bull and bear markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 463-469.
    201. Somvang PHIMMAVONG & Ian FERGUSON & Barbara OZARSKA, 2010. "Economy-Wide Impact of Forest Plantation Development in Laos Using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," EcoMod2010 259600131, EcoMod.
    202. Hassler Uwe & Wolters Jürgen, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates? A Comparison between Germany and the US," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 119-129, April.
    203. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A fractional cointegration analysis of the long-run relationship between black and official foreign exchange rates: the case of the Brazilian cruzeiro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 853-861.
    204. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    205. Andersson, Michael K. & Gredenhoff, Mikael P., 1997. "Bootstrap Testing for Fractional Integration," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 188, Stockholm School of Economics.
    206. Diego Romero‐Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit Root Tests, Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 698-716, January.
    207. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    208. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November.
    209. Saeed Heravi & Kerry Patterson, 2005. "Optimal And Adaptive Semi‐Parametric Narrowband And Broadband And Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of The Long‐Memory Parameter For Real Exchange Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(2), pages 165-213, March.
    210. Masaki Narukawa & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2008. "Broadband semiparametric estimation of the long-memory parameter by the likelihood-based FEXP approach," TERG Discussion Papers 239, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    211. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2007. "Mean reversion of inflation rates in 19 OECD countries: Evidence from panel Lm unit root tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(23), pages 1-15.
    212. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The link between monetary aggregates and prices," Working Papers 1990-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    213. Manuel Monge & Rafael Hurtado & Juan Infante, 2025. "Time trends and persistence of the return difference between growth and value investment strategies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(9), pages 1-12, September.
    214. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    215. Monge, Manuel, 2024. "A Time Trend and Persistence Analysis of Sunflower Oil and Olive Oil Prices in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 5(3), September.
    216. Manuel Monge, 2024. "Trends and persistence in global olive oil prices after COVID-19," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 481-488, October.
    217. Tkacz Greg, 2001. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, April.
    218. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Unions in Africa: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis," NCID Working Papers 11/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    219. Fredrik Andersson, 2014. "Exchange rates dynamics revisited: a panel data test of the fractional integration order," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 389-409, September.
    220. Laura Mayoral, 2015. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries:a Fractionally Integrated Approach," Working Papers 259, Barcelona School of Economics.
    221. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2015. "African Growth, Non-Linearities and Strong Dependence: An Empirical Study," NCID Working Papers 12/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    222. de Figueiredo, Erik Alencar, 2010. "Dynamics of regional unemployment rates in Brazil: Fractional behavior, structural breaks, and Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 900-908, September.
    223. Salah Nusair, 2008. "Testing for the Fisher hypothesis under regime shifts: an application to Asian countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 273-284.
    224. Nuno Crato & Philip Rothman, 1994. "A reappraisal of parity reversion for UK real exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(9), pages 139-141.
    225. Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Elayaraja Aruchunan & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2024. "A new fractional integration approach based on neural network nonlinearity with an application to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2471-2499, June.
    226. Denisard Alves & Regina Celia Cati & Vera Lucia Fava, 2001. "Purchasing power parity in Brazil: a test for fractional cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 1175-1185.
    227. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    228. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Sam D. Howison, 2015. "The Long Memory of Order Flow in the Foreign Exchange Spot Market," Papers 1504.04354, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    229. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    230. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Persistence and cycles in historical oil price data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 511-516.
    231. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    232. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2001. "Parameter instability, superexogeneity, and the monetary model of the exchange rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 501-524, September.
    233. Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno & Manuel Monge, 2023. "Consumer Sentiment in the United States and the Impact of Mental Disorders on Consumer Behavior—Time Trends and Persistence Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-10, July.
    234. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    235. Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel & Fisunoglu, Mahir, 2008. "On the inflation-uncertainty hypothesis in Jordan, Philippines and Turkey: A long memory approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12.
    236. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    237. Swarna Dutt & Dipak Ghosh, 1997. "Are experts' expectations rational? A multicurrency analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 803-812.

  69. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: a re-examination," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Franses, Philip Hans & Kleibergen, Frank, 1996. "Unit roots in the Nelson-Plosser data: Do they matter for forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 283-288, June.
    2. Rodolfo Cermeño, 2007. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in Panel Data: Methodology and Applications to the GDP Convergence and Purchasing Power Parity Hypotheses," Working Papers DTE 407, CIDE, División de Economía.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Post-Print hal-00956937, HAL.
    4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. Noriega Antonio E. & Soria Luis M. & Velázquez Ramón, 2008. "International Evidence on Stochastic and Deterministic Monetary Neutrality," Working Papers 2008-04, Banco de México.
    7. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    8. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2014. "Improved variance estimation of maximum likelihood estimators in stable first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-448.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1991. "Exactly Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive-Unit Root Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 975, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. James H. Stock, 1991. "Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Technical Working Papers 0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.
    16. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1991. "Comparing predictive accuracy I: an asymptotic test," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 52, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    18. Johan Lyhagen, 2006. "The seasonal KPSS statistic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(13), pages 1-9.
    19. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 57, Econometric Society.
    21. Clive Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2000. "Model evaluation based on residual analysis of two similar models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 861-867.
    22. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    23. Daniela De Angelis & Stefano Fachin & G. Alastair Young, 1997. "Bootstrapping unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1155-1161.
    24. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2009. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860–1988," Working Papers hal-00422502, HAL.
    25. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td233, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    26. Deb, Surajit, 2004. "Terms of Trade and Investment Behaviour in Indian Agriculture: A Cointegration Analysis," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 1-22.
    27. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.
    28. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td228, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    29. Falk, Barry & Roy, Anindya, 1999. "Efficiency Tradeoffs in Estimating the Trend and Error Structure of the Linear Model," ISU General Staff Papers 199908010700001327, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    30. Augusto Delgado & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2015. "Structural Breaks and Convergence in the Regions of Peru: 1970–2010," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 346-357, May.
    31. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Norman J. Morin & John M. Roberts, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273598, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    34. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    35. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Does world investment demand determine U.S. exports?," International Finance Discussion Papers 423, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Estimating and testing rational expectations models when the trend specification is uncertain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1485-1525, October.
    37. Jos'e A. Tapia Granados & Edward L. Ionides, 2024. "Income, health, and spurious cointegration," Papers 2407.15755, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    38. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    39. Lawrence E. Raffalovich, 1994. "Detrending Time Series," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 22(4), pages 492-519, May.
    40. Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D.A., 2012. "Higher-order asymptotic expansions of the least-squares estimation bias in first-order dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3705-3729.
    41. Ms. Hong Liang & Mr. C. John McDermott & Mr. Paul Cashin, 1999. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 1999/080, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
    43. Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2011. "Stationarity, structural breaks, and economic growth in Mexico: 1895-2008," Working Papers 2011-11, Banco de México.
    44. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December.
    45. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    46. Crowder, William J., 1996. "The international convergence of inflation rates during fixed and floating exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 551-575, August.
    47. David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.
    48. Sun Bae Kim & Ramon Moreno, 1993. "Money, interest rates and economic activity: stylized facts for Japan," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 12-24.
    49. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2002. "Random Walks and Non-Linear Paths in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications," Working Papers geewp22, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    50. Erotokritos Varelas & Ulrich Woitek, 1995. "Is the Greek Economy Periodic?: a Multivariate Description of the Business Cycle Stylized Facts," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 64(1), pages 114-124.
    51. Swarna Dutt & Dipak Ghosh, 1998. "Examining the credibility of macroeconomic forecasts: Null of cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 13-19, June.
    52. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    53. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Unbiased estimate of dynamic term structure models," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    54. Hossain, Ferdaus, 1995. "Current account determination in the intertemporal framework: an empirical analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000011939, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    55. Jan F. Kiviet & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2000. "Improved Coefficient and Variance Estimation in Stable First-Order Dynamic Regression Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0631, Econometric Society.

  70. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1990. "International evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 31, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Cited by:

    1. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    3. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Vitor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

  71. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.
    2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    3. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    4. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the US and UK unemployment rates," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 364-375, October.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    6. Lahiani, A. & Scaillet, O., 2009. "Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 418-428.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    8. Hosking, Jonathan R. M., 1996. "Asymptotic distributions of the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations of long-memory time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 261-284, July.
    9. Arteche, Josu & Orbe, Jesus, 2009. "Using the bootstrap for finite sample confidence intervals of the log periodogram regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1940-1953, April.
    10. Gary Koop, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers gkoop-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics.
    12. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
    13. Valérie Mignon & Sandrine Lardic, 2003. "Cointégration fractionnaire entre la consommation et le revenu," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 158(2), pages 123-142.
    14. Hartl, Tobias, 2021. "Monitoring the pandemic: A fractional filter for the COVID-19 contact rate," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242380, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Hassler, Uwe & Mármol, Francesc, 1998. "Fractional cointegrating regressions in the presence of linear time trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9794, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Chung, Ching-Fan, 1996. "Estimating a generalized long memory process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 237-259, July.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2002. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Economics Discussion Papers 8844, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    19. Quineche Ricardo, 2021. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns: An FCVAR Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 21-42, January.
    20. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
    21. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nicholas Kilimani & Amandine Nakumuryango & Siobhan Redford, 2012. "Predicting BRICS Stock Returns Using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers 201235, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chung, Sang-Kuck, 2009. "A Long Memory Model with Mixed Normal GARCH for US Inflation Data," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt94r403d2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    23. Adam Ruschka & Martin Janíčko & Helena Chytilová, 2025. "Dynamic Panel Estimation of the Deaton Paradox," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2025(1), pages 75-104.
    24. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Carcel, Hector, 2017. "Shocks affecting electricity prices in Kenya, a fractional integration study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 521-530.
    25. Morten Ø. Nielsen & Per Houmann Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison Of Parametric, Semiparametric, And Wavelet Estimators Of Fractional Integration," Working Paper 1189, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    26. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    27. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
    28. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2008. "Reexamining the permanent income hypothesis with uncertainty in permanent and transitory innovation states," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1816-1836, December.
    29. Jesus Gonzalo & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2000. "On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 821-827.
    30. Mark J. Jensen, 1997. "Using Wavelets to Obtain a Consistent Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter," Econometrics 9710002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
    32. Joseph G. Haubrich, 1990. "Consumption and fractional differencing: old and new anomalies," Working Papers (Old Series) 9010, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    33. Cristofaro, Lorenzo & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei & Wanke, Peter, 2021. "Modelling stock market data in China: Crisis and Coronavirus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    34. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    35. Mark J. Jensen, 1999. "An Approximate Wavelet MLE of Short- and Long-Memory Parameters," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1243, Society for Computational Economics.
    36. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    37. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Lieberman, Offer & Marmer, Vadim, 2006. "Higher-order improvements of the parametric bootstrap for long-memory Gaussian processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 673-702, August.
    38. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Working Paper 1061, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    39. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Near common factors and confidence regions for present value models," Working Papers 94-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    40. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2006. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273537, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    41. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5474-5479, September.
    42. Chung, Ching-Fan, 2001. "Calculating and analyzing impulse responses for the vector ARFIMA model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 17-25, April.
    43. Arteche, J. & Orbe, J., 2005. "Bootstrapping the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 79-85, January.
    44. Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    45. Borja Balparda & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2017. "The fisher relationship in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 343-353, April.

  72. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society.
    2. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201107, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
    7. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2009. "First Announcements and Real Economic Activity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 885, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
    10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 4), pages 4-20.
    14. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Lupi, Claudio & Peracchi, Franco, 2003. "The limits of statistical information: How important are GDP revisions in Italy?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03005, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    16. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Some Variables are More Worthy Than Others: New Diffusion Index Evidence on the Monitoring of Key Economic Indicators," Departmental Working Papers 201115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    17. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    18. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.
    22. Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Examining complex unit roots in the MENA countries industrial production indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 255-259.
    23. D R Osborn & M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Predicting Growth Cycle Regimes for European Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 39, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    24. María-Dolores, Ramon & Vazquez, Jesus & Londoño, Juan M., 2009. "Extending the New Keynesian Monetary Model with Information Revision Processes: Real-time and Revised Data," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 4695, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
    25. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    26. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995. "A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Macroeconomics 9503004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1999. "Do noisy data exacerbate cyclical volatility?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    30. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    31. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    32. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
    33. Phillip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 0012, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    34. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representations of the Output Gap," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0619, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    35. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2003. "Indicator Accuracy and Monetary Policy: Is Ignorance Bliss?," Working Paper Series 157, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    36. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89.
    37. Norman R. Swanson & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release, and Forecasting," Departmental Working Papers 201113, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    38. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    39. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers 8194, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    40. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    41. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    42. Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    43. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    44. Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos & Patrice T. Robitaille & Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, 2004. "News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 776, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    46. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    47. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    48. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    49. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    50. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    51. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2011. "Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE models," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1104, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    52. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    53. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    54. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0617, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    55. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
    56. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    57. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

  73. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Internal finance and investment: testing the role of asymmetric information and agency costs," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Corrado DI GUILMI, 2008. "Financial Determinants of Firms Profitability: A Hazard Function Investigation," Working Papers 315, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Karen Mills & Steven Morling & Warren Tease, 1995. "The Influence of Financial Factors on Corporate Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(2), pages 50-64, April.
    3. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Karen Mills & Steven Morling & Warren Tease, 1994. "The Influence of Financial Factors on Corporate Investment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9402, Reserve Bank of Australia.

  74. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo.
    4. Dayong Zhang & Marco R. Barassi & Jijun Tan, 2015. "Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration: Testing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1118-1140, December.
    5. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.
    6. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1583-1589.
    7. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2006. "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Faculty Working Papers 03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104, March.
    9. Aaron D. Smallwood & Paul M. Beaumont, 2002. "An Asymptotic MLE Approach to Modelling Multiple Frequency GARMA Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 285, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Testing for Persistence in Housing Price-to-Income and Price-to-Rent Ratios in 16 OECD Countries," Working Papers 201321, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Kanchana Nadarajah & Gael M Martin & Donald S Poskitt, 2019. "Optimal Bias Correction of the Log-periodogram Estimator of the Fractional Parameter: A Jackknife Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    13. Constantin Bürgi, 2020. "Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks," Working Papers 2020-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Sep 2020.
    14. F. Goerlich, 1991. "Persistencia en las fluctuaciones económicas: evidencia para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 193-202, January.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Infant mortality rates: time trends and fractional integration," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 589-602, March.
    16. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
    18. Gil-Alana, L. A., 2003. "A fractional multivariate long memory model for the US and the Canadian real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 355-359, December.
    19. L.A. Gil-Alanaa, 2007. "Testing The Existence of Multiple Cycles in Financial and Economic Time Series," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, May.
    20. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    21. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    22. Ghazi Al-Assaf, 2017. "An Early Warning System for Currency Crisis: A Comparative Study for the Case of Jordan and Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 43-50.
    23. Geoffrey Ngene & Ann Nduati Mungai & Allen K. Lynch, 2018. "Long-Term Dependency Structure and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the U.S. Sector Returns and Volatility," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(02), pages 1-38, June.
    24. Roger Koppl & William Butos, 2001. "Confidence in Keynes and Hayek: Reply to Burczak," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 81-86.
    25. Jia Li & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2022. "Weak Identification of Long Memory with Implications for Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2334, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Modelling the Japanese Exchange Rate in Terms of I(d) Statistical Models with Parametric and Semiparametric Techniques," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 123-138, August.
    27. L.A. Gil‐Alana, 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
    28. L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
    29. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identi- fication and Some Theoretical Bounds," NBER Technical Working Papers 0106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 2004. "Fractional cointegration, low frequency dynamics and long-run purchasing power parity: an analysis of the Australian dollar over its recent float," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 593-605.
    31. Ramos-Requena, J.P. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A., 2017. "Introducing Hurst exponent in pair trading," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 488(C), pages 39-45.
    32. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    33. Ignacio Rodríguez Carreño & L. Gila Useros, A. Malanda Trigueros, J. Navallas Irujo, J. Rodríguez Falces, S. Gómez Elvira, 2008. "Influence of Baseline Fluctuation Cancellation on Automatic Measurement of Motor Unit Action Potential Duration," Faculty Working Papers 13/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    34. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Zerbo, Eleazar, 2021. "GDP per capita IN SUB-SAHARAN Africa: A time series approach using long memory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-190.
    35. Elie Bouri & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2016. "Modelling Long Memory Volatility in the Bitcoin Market: Evidence of Persistence and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 201654, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    36. Gadea, Maria Dolores & Sabate, Marcela & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2004. "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 117-134, April.
    37. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing the Power of a Generalization of the KPSS-Tests against Fractionally Integrated Hypotheses," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 23-38, August.
    38. Alessandra Spremolla, 2001. "Persistencia en el Desempleo de Uruguay," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(113), pages 73-89.
    39. Sedika, Wesam M. & Emamb, Waleed, 2019. "The impact of ICT capital and use on economic growth," 2nd Europe – Middle East – North African Regional ITS Conference, Aswan 2019: Leveraging Technologies For Growth 201738, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    40. G. Dufrenot & E. Grimaud & E. Latil & V. Mignon, 2003. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated threshold model," Thema Working Papers 2003-07, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    41. Christian Macaro, 2007. "The Impact of Vintage on the Persistence of Gross Domestic Product Shocks," CEIS Research Paper 101, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    42. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Non-linear Approach with Long Range Dependence based on Chebyshev Polynomials," Faculty Working Papers 14/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    43. Hosking, Jonathan R. M., 1996. "Asymptotic distributions of the sample mean, autocovariances, and autocorrelations of long-memory time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 261-284, July.
    44. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper series 25_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    45. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    46. Arteche, Josu & Orbe, Jesus, 2009. "Using the bootstrap for finite sample confidence intervals of the log periodogram regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1940-1953, April.
    47. Sam Strong & Siew Ping Tan, 1991. "The Australian Business Cycle: Its Definition and Existence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 115-125, June.
    48. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    49. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    50. Gary Koop, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers gkoop-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    51. Lovcha, Yuliya & Pérez Laborda, Àlex, 2016. "Structural shocks and dinamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Working Papers 2072/261538, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    52. Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics.
    54. Fatás, Antonio & Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta, 2020. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 14531, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    55. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    56. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "Exchange rate persistence of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in the NDF market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    57. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "Structural Change and the Order of Integration in Univariate Time Series," Faculty Working Papers 20/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    58. Bhardwaj, Shivam & Gadre, Vikram M. & Chandrasekhar, E., 2020. "Statistical analysis of DWT coefficients of fGn processes using ARFIMA(p,d,q) models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 547(C).
    59. Gallegati, Marco, 2026. "Financial and business cycles in the US: A non-parametric time–frequency investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    60. Mohanty, Samarendu & Peterson, E. Wesley F. & Smith, Darnell B., 1998. "Price Integration In Mercosur Countries: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20954, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    61. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2000. "Estimating the differencing parameter via the partial autocorrelation function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 365-381, August.
    62. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
    63. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 4035, CESifo.
    64. Chung, Ching-Fan, 1996. "Estimating a generalized long memory process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 237-259, July.
    65. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models," Working Papers 528, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    66. Baillie, R. & Chung, C. & Tieslau, M., 1992. "The Long Memory and Variability of Inflation : A Reappraisal of the Friedman Hypothesis," Other publications TiSEM 49a709f4-608f-43c5-840b-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    67. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
    68. Adelina Gschwandtner & Michael Hauser, 2008. "Modelling profit series: nonstationarity and long memory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(11), pages 1475-1482.
    69. Luis Gil-Alana & Pedro Mendi, 2005. "Fractional integration in total factor productivity: evidence from US data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1369-1383.
    70. G Caggiano & L Leonida, "undated". "International Output Convergence: Evidence from an AutoCorrelation Function Approach," Working Papers 2006_20, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    71. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    72. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2015. "Optimum Currency Areas, Real and Nominal Convergence in the European Union," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 42, pages 8-29, December.
    73. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Real convergence in Taiwan: a fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 529-547, June.
    74. Seiler, Volker, 2024. "The relationship between Chinese and FOB prices of rare earth elements – Evidence in the time and frequency domain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 160-179.
    75. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis," Macroeconomics 9508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
    77. Dräger, Lena & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "The Long Memory of Equity Volatility and the Macroeconomy: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-667, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    78. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2008. "Macro and Financial Markets: The Memory of an Elephant?," Working Paper series 17_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    79. Belbute, José M. & Pereira, Alfredo M., 2020. "Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    80. Kyongwook Choi & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Long Memory and Structural Changes in the Forward Discount: An Empirical Investigation," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2003_02, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    81. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "The Long Memory of Equity Volatility: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-614, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    82. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Seasonal and non-seasonal long memory effects in the Japanese real effective exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 87-98, March.
    83. Pestana Barros, Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Evidence of long memory behavior in U.S. renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 822-826.
    84. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 1991. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in the business cycle," Working Papers (Old Series) 9116, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    85. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 90110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2018.
    86. Saadet Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu & A. Duygu Ayhan, 2009. "Long memory in stock returns: evidence from the major emerging Central European stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1763-1768.
    87. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2022. "Technological paradigms, labour creation and destruction in a multi-sector agent-based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    88. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2017. "Unemployment Dynamics In The Asia-Pacific Region: A Preliminary Investigation," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 983-1016, December.
    89. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "Testing for long-range dependence in world stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 918-927.
    90. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    91. J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2020. "Temperature Anomalies, Long Memory, and Aggregation," CREATES Research Papers 2020-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    92. boughabi, houssam, 2026. "Distributive Conflict, Investment, and Persistent Unemployment: Evidence from a Kaleckian Long-Memory Model — The Case of Germany (1990–2024," MPRA Paper 127571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    93. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On the performance of simple trading rules derived from the fractal dynamics of gold and silver price fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 255-267.
    94. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    95. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nicholas Kilimani & Amandine Nakumuryango & Siobhan Redford, 2012. "Predicting BRICS Stock Returns Using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers 201235, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    96. López-García, M.N. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A. & Pouchkarev, I., 2021. "Extending the Fama and French model with a long term memory factor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 421-426.
    97. Christian Fischer & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2005. "The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of Ge," Faculty Working Papers 15/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    98. Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas & Samartzis, Panagiotis, 2024. "Unbounded heteroscedasticity in autoregressive models," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    99. M. Chudý & S. Karmakar & W. B. Wu, 2020. "Long-term prediction intervals of economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 191-222, January.
    100. John Okunev & Pat Wilson, 1996. "Fractional Co-Integration in Domestic and International Real Estate and Stock Markets," Working Paper Series 65, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    101. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 478, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    102. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006.
    103. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    104. Delgado, Miguel A. & Hidalgo, Javier, 1998. "Consistent specification testing of stationary processes with long-range dependence: asymptotic and bootstrap tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4673, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    105. Michelacci, Claudio, 2004. "Cross-sectional heterogeneity and the persistence of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1321-1352, October.
    106. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    107. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "A mean shift break in the US interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 357-363, November.
    108. Diebold & Senhadji, "undated". "Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trend in U.S. GNP, Yet Again," Home Pages _054, University of Pennsylvania.
    109. Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    110. Pierre Villa, 1999. "Cycles de la production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 95-108.
    111. Patrick K. Asea & Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Non-monotonic long memory dynamics in black-market premia," Working Papers 1995-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    112. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Hypothesis testing with near-unit roots: the case of long-run purchasing-power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 37-48.
    113. J. Eduardo Vera‐Valdés, 2020. "On long memory origins and forecast horizons," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 811-826, August.
    114. Christopher Bajada, 2003. "Business Cycle Properties of the Legitimate and Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(247), pages 397-411, December.
    115. Matti Vir, 2000. "Analysing long memory and asymmetries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 240-258.
    116. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain & Giovanni Caggiano, 2008. "Nelson-Plosser revisited: the ACF approach," Working Paper series 18_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    117. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    118. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    119. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Modelling the U.S. interest rate in terms of I(d) statistical models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 475-486, September.
    120. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    121. A. Gómez-Águila & J. E. Trinidad-Segovia & M. A. Sánchez-Granero, 2022. "Improvement in Hurst exponent estimation and its application to financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    122. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.
    123. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2025. "A Fractional Integration Model and Testing Procedure with Roots Within the Unit Circle," CESifo Working Paper Series 11983, CESifo.
    124. José Manuel Belbute & Alfredo Marvão Pereira, 2016. "Does final energy demand in Portugal exhibit long memory? A fractional integration analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(2), pages 59-77, August.
    125. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    126. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.
    127. Mohamed Boutahar & Imene Mootamri & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2007. "An exponential FISTAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Working Papers halshs-00353836, HAL.
    128. Boughabi, Houssam, 2026. "Distributive conflict and wage formation in Germany: A Kaleckian perspective on nominal wages and demand (1990-2024)," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 126, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    129. Luis Gil-Alana, 2005. "Unit and Fractional Roots at the Long Run and the Seasonal Frequencies in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 257-266, August.
    130. Baillie, R. & Chung, C. & Tieslau, M., 1992. "The Long Memory and Variability of Inflation : A Reappraisal of the Friedman Hypothesis," Discussion Paper 1992-46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    131. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2025. "Judgment can spur long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    132. Sanjay Rajagopal, 2012. "A Study of the Returns Behavior of Small Capitalization REITs," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(8), pages 457-466.
    133. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    134. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    135. Morten Ø. Nielsen & Per Houmann Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison Of Parametric, Semiparametric, And Wavelet Estimators Of Fractional Integration," Working Paper 1189, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    136. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "The Memory of Stock Return Volatility: Asset Pricing Implications," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-613, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    137. Cuñado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2012. "Testing for persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in the Nasdaq index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4675-4685.
    138. Geetha Mayadunne & Merran Evans & Brett Inder, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(2), pages 145-156, June.
    139. Belbute, José, 2013. "Does final demand for energy in Portugal exhibit long memory?," MPRA Paper 45717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    140. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    141. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
    142. Cotter, John & Stevenson, Simon, 2007. "Modeling Long Memory in REITs," MPRA Paper 3500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    143. Choi, Kyongwook & Zivot, Eric, 2007. "Long memory and structural changes in the forward discount: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 342-363, April.
    144. Dilip Kumar & S. Maheswaran, 2015. "Long memory in Indian exchange rates: an application of power-law scaling analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 90-107, July.
    145. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
    146. jérôme Fillol & Fabien Tripier, 2003. "The scaling function-based estimator of the long memory parameter: a comparative study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(23), pages 1-7.
    147. Souza, Leonardo R. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Bias in the memory parameter for different sampling rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313.
    148. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2000. "A Note on Michelacci and Zaffaroni, Long Memory, and Time Series of Economic Growth," Research Memorandum 031, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    149. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High-Frequency British Pound / Dollar Spot Exchange Rates," Faculty Working Papers 02/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    150. Cristofaro, Lorenzo & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei & Wanke, Peter, 2021. "Modelling stock market data in China: Crisis and Coronavirus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    151. Rey, Serge & Varachaud, Pascal, 2000. "Le comportement des taux de change réels européens de la fin Bretton Woods à l’adoption de l’euro [The behavior of European real exchange rates from the Bretton Woods system end to the adoption of the euro]," MPRA Paper 49502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    152. Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, "undated". "Optimal Residual Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economics Working Papers 2002-7, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    153. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 02/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    154. Pérez, Ana & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2001. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS ds010101, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    155. Peter N. Ireland, 1993. "Price stability under long-run monetary targeting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 25-46.
    156. Benjamin R Auer, 2016. "Pure return persistence, Hurst exponents and hedge fund selection – A practical note," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 319-330, September.
    157. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "US Disposable Personal Income and Housing Price Index: A Fractional Integration Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 03/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    158. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse, 2014. "Discriminating between fractional integration and spurious long memory," CREATES Research Papers 2014-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    159. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    160. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    161. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    162. Epaminondas Panas & Vassilia Ninni, 2010. "The Distribution of London Metal Exchange Prices: A Test of the Fractal Market Hypothesis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 192-210.
    163. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    164. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    165. Fischer, Christian & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2007. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Discussion Papers 57033, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    166. J. Cunado & L. A. Gil-Alana & F. Perez de Gracia, 2007. "Testing for stock market bubbles using nonlinear models and fractional integration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1313-1321.
    167. Smallwood Aaron D, 2005. "Joint Tests for Non-linearity and Long Memory: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-30, June.
    168. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2009. "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    169. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Modelling the US real GNP with fractionally integrated techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 873-879.
    170. Arjun Chatrath & Youguo Liang, 1998. "REITs and Inflation: A Long-Run Perspective," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 311-326.
    171. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    172. Boughabi, Houssam, 2025. "Modeling Wage Expectations and Long-Memory Dynamics in the German Labor Market, 1914–1920," MPRA Paper 126295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    173. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2011. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Post-Print hal-00711450, HAL.
    174. Panayotis G. Michaelides & Efthymios G. Tsionas & Angelos T. Vouldis & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panagiotis Patrinos, 2018. "A Semi-Parametric Non-linear Neural Network Filter: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 637-675, March.
    175. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "The aliasing effect, the Fejer Kernel and temporally aggregated long memory processes," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 470, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    176. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    177. Uwe Hassler, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Post-Print hal-00815563, HAL.
    178. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Shittu, Olanrewaju I, 2014. "GDP Per Capita in Africa before the Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion and Long Memory Features," MPRA Paper 88758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    179. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "A simple non-linear model with fractional integration for financial time series data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 838-848, December.
    180. Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.
    181. Koelln, Kenneth & Rush, Mark & Waldo, Doug, 1996. "Do government policy multipliers decrease with inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 495-505, December.
    182. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
    183. Haldrup, Niels & Vera Valdés, J. Eduardo, 2017. "Long memory, fractional integration, and cross-sectional aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 1-11.
    184. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, 2012. "Testing Catching-Up Between The Developing Countries: “Growth Resistance” And Sometimes “Growth Tragedy”," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 470-508, October.
    185. de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques, Guilherme & Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto, Mateus, 2024. "Dynamics of persistence in Brazilian economic uncertainty, expectation, and confidence indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    186. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Long memory and structural breaks in hyperinflation countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 136-152, June.
    187. Eric DUBOIS, 2010. "A Simple Politico-Economic Model to Predict Vote and Growth in France," EcoMod2004 330600045, EcoMod.
    188. Hashmat Khan, 2000. "Price Stickiness, Inflation, and Output Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis," Staff Working Papers 00-13, Bank of Canada.
    189. Macaro, Christian, 2008. "The impact of vintage on the persistence of gross domestic product shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 301-308, March.
    190. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    191. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Near common factors and confidence regions for present value models," Working Papers 94-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    192. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    193. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
    194. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    195. Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Long memory in the interest rates in some Asian countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(4), pages 257-267, November.
    196. Franco, G.C. & Reisen, V.A. & Alves, F.A., 2013. "Bootstrap tests for fractional integration and cointegration: A comparison study," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 19-29.
    197. Assaf, Ata, 2015. "Long memory and level shifts in REITs returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
    198. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    199. Luis Gil-Alana, 2008. "Real GDP growth rates across countries: long memory and mean shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 449-455.
    200. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
    201. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
    202. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series," Papers 2005.05266, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    203. Martin, Gael M. & Nadarajah, K. & Poskitt, D.S., 2020. "Issues in the estimation of mis-specified models of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 559-573.
    204. Marie, O., 2010. "Police and thieves in the stadium: measuring the (multiple) effects of football matches on crime," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    205. Neuhoff, Daniel, 2015. "Dynamics of real per capita GDP," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    206. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 149-162.
    207. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2004. "A fractionally integrated model for the Spanish real GDP," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(8), pages 1-6.
    208. L. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Long run and cyclical strong dependence in macroeconomic time series: Nelson and Plosser revisited," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 139-154, April.
    209. Claudio Michelacci, 1999. "Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity and the Persistence of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers wp1999_9906, CEMFI.
    210. Candelon, Bertrand & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2001. "Fractional integration and business cycle features," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,46, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    211. Rania Jammazi & Chaker Aloui, 2014. "Cyclical components and dual long memory in the foreign exchange rate dynamics: the Tunisian case," Working Papers 2014-198, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    212. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Seiler, Volker, 2020. "The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    213. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2007. "Estimation of fractional integration in the presence of data noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 3100-3114, March.
    214. Boutahar, Mohamed & Mootamri, Imène & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2009. "A fractionally integrated exponential STAR model applied to the US real effective exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 335-341, March.
    215. John W. Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Autoregression-Based Estimators for ARFIMA Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-11, CIRANO.
    216. Orregaard Nielsen, Morten & Frederiksen, Per, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273666, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    217. Abdol Soofi, 1998. "A fractional cointegration test of purchasing power parity: the case of selected members of OPEC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 559-566.
    218. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
    219. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
    220. Patrick J. Wilson & John Okunev, 1999. "Long-Term Dependencies and Long Run non-Periodic Co-Cycles: Real Estate and Stock Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 257-278.
    221. Krämer, Walter & Marmol, Francesc, 1998. "The power of residual-based tests for cointegration when residuals are fractionally integrated," Technical Reports 1998,42, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    222. Ellis, Craig & Wilson, Patrick, 2004. "Another look at the forecast performance of ARFIMA models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-81.
    223. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A fractional cointegration analysis of the long-run relationship between black and official foreign exchange rates: the case of the Brazilian cruzeiro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 853-861.
    224. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
    225. Hauser, Michael A. & Reschenhofer, Erhard, 1995. "Estimation of the fractionally differencing parameter with the R/S method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 569-579, November.
    226. Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2009. "Wavelet Method for Locally Stationary Seasonal Long Memory Processes," Post-Print halshs-00375531, HAL.
    227. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Fischer, Christian, 2007. "International traveling and trade: further evidence for the case of Spanish wine based on fractional VAR specifications," 105th Seminar, March 8-10, 2007, Bologna, Italy 7859, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    228. Chung, Ching-Fan, 2001. "Calculating and analyzing impulse responses for the vector ARFIMA model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 17-25, April.
    229. Rodrigo Mariscal & Andrew Powell, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note," Research Department Publications 4785, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    230. Gilles DUFRENOT & Elisabeth GRIMAUD & Eug=E9nie LATIL & Val=E9rie MIGNON, 2003. "Real exhange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated=20 threshold model," Econometrics 0309001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    231. Emara, Noha & Ma, Jinpeng, 2019. "An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 99310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    232. Wright, Jonathan H., 1999. "Frequency domain inference for univariate impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 269-277, June.
    233. Ellis, Craig, 1999. "Estimation of the ARFIMA (p, d, q) fractional differencing parameter (d) using the classical rescaled adjusted range technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-65.
    234. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-13.
    235. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    236. Oleg Obrezkov, 2007. "Long range dependence and the purchasing power parity (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 2, pages 131-140, March.
    237. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    238. J. Eduardo Vera-Vald'es, 2018. "Nonfractional Memory: Filtering, Antipersistence, and Forecasting," Papers 1801.06677, arXiv.org.
    239. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
    240. Mohanty, Samarendu & Peterson, E. Wesley F. & Smith, Darnell B., 1998. "Fractional Conintegration And The False Rejection Of The Law Of One Price In International Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 1-10, December.
    241. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2002. "Random Walks and Non-Linear Paths in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications," Working Papers geewp22, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    242. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
    243. Arteche, J. & Orbe, J., 2005. "Bootstrapping the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 79-85, January.
    244. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1950, CESifo.
    245. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    246. Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    247. Sánchez Granero, M.A. & Trinidad Segovia, J.E. & García Pérez, J., 2008. "Some comments on Hurst exponent and the long memory processes on capital markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5543-5551.
    248. Giakas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hysteresis, financial frictions and monetary policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    249. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2016. "Stock and currency market linkages: New evidence from realized spillovers in higher moments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 167-185.
    250. Joao Sousa Andrade & Irina Syssoyeva-Masson, 2016. "Investigating the presence of long memory in debt series and its relation with growth," EcoMod2016 9627, EcoMod.
    251. Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Elayaraja Aruchunan & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2024. "A new fractional integration approach based on neural network nonlinearity with an application to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2471-2499, June.
    252. Cotter, John, 2004. "Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures," MPRA Paper 3525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    253. Ariño, Miguel A. & Mármol, Francesc, 1998. "A beveridge-nelson decomposition for fractionally integrated time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6262, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    254. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter & Giraitis, Liudas, 2009. "Two estimators of the long-run variance: Beyond short memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 56-70, May.
    255. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2015. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1145, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    256. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    257. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Memory and infrequent breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 29-41, January.
    258. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 525, European Central Bank.
    259. Pan, Qunxing & Mei, Xiaowen & Gao, Tianqing, 2022. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    260. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
    261. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yadollah Dadgar & Rouhollah Nazari, 2019. "Iranian inflation: peristence and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 398-408, April.

  75. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
    3. Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    5. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
    6. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2009. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 694, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    9. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    10. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    13. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    14. Michael W. Klein, 1993. "Timing is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 4383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Khurshid Kiani, 2005. "Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 65-89, August.
    16. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
    17. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2001. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0111, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    18. Hiroshi Iyetomi & Yasuhiro Nakayama & Hiroshi Yoshikawa & Hideaki Aoyama & Yoshi Fujiwara & Yuichi Ikeda & Wataru Souma, 2009. "What Causes Business Cycles? Analysis of the Japanese Industrial Production Data," Papers 0912.0857, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    19. George Koutsoumanis & Vítor Castro, 2023. "The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1667-1698, April.
    20. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics.
    21. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
    22. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    23. Crentsil, Christian & Gschwandtner, Adelina & Wahhaj, Zaki, 2020. "The effects of risk and ambiguity aversion on technology adoption: Evidence from aquaculture in Ghana," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 46-68.
    24. Vitor Castro & Boris Fisera, 2022. "Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ´Too Much Finance´," Working Papers IES 2022/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2022.
    25. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    26. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
    27. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
    28. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8379, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    29. Geert Bekaert & Alexander Popov, 2012. "On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth," NBER Working Papers 18556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Khurshid M. Kiani & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2004. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 333-351, July.
    32. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    33. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    35. A. Pagan & J. Engel & D. Haugh, 2004. "Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 284, Econometric Society.
    36. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    37. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    38. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    39. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.
    40. Kaihua Deng & Dun Jia, 2018. "Backtesting Stress Tests: A Guide for M2 Forward Guidance," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 443-471, November.
    41. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    42. Liu Xiangdong & Mi Zeyu & Chen Huida, 2020. "A Class of Jump-Diffusion Stochastic Differential System Under Markovian Switching and Analytical Properties of Solutions," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 17-32, February.
    43. C. O'Sullivan, 1993. "What Everyone Needs to Know About the Australian Business Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 93-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    44. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    45. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    46. Alnoah Abdulsalam & Helian Xu & Waqar Ameer & AL-Barakani Abdo & Jiejin Xia, 2021. "Exploration of the Impact of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Economic Growth in Asia and North Africa along the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    47. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
    48. Li Gan & Qinghua Zhang, 2005. "The Thick Market Effect on Local Unemployment Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.
    50. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 534-559, June.
    51. Vitor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    52. Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
    53. Di Guilmi, C. & Gaffeo, E. & Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2005. "International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 5-16.
    54. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    55. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    56. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.
    58. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
    59. Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Nakayama, Yasuhiro & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Ikeda, Yuichi & Souma, Wataru, 2011. "What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 246-272, September.
    60. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
    61. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
    62. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    64. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
    65. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Time Series Modeling with Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: MCMC Inference, Software and Applications," Econometrics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Timmermann, Allan & Lunde, Asger, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    67. du Plessis, S. A., 2004. "Stretching the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 685-701, July.
    68. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2016. "Domestic Factors and Episodes of Gross Capital Inflows," Trinity Economics Papers tep1916, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    69. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    70. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
    71. Hillier, Brian & Rougier, Jonathan, 1999. "Real Business Cycles, Investment Finance, and Multiple Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 100-122, May.
    72. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    73. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi-Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3767-3781.
    74. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    75. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2016. "On business cycle fluctuations in USA macroeconomic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 179-186.
    76. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
    77. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    78. Lopez Buenache, German & Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Rosa-García, Alfonso, 2020. "Credit cycles and labor market slacks: predictive evidence from Markov-switching models," MPRA Paper 100362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    79. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
    80. Lixin Cai, 2004. "An Analysis of Durations on the Disability Support Pension (DSP) Program," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n08, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    81. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Harding, Don, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View," MPRA Paper 3698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120.
    84. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    85. Popov, Alexander, 2014. "Credit constraints, equity market liberalization, and growth rate asymmetry," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 202-214.
    86. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
    87. Yongmiao Hong & Yoon-Jin Lee, 2007. "Detecting Misspecifications in Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," CAEPR Working Papers 2007-019, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    88. Cláudio Tadeu Cristino & Piotr Żebrowski & Matthias Wildemeersch, 2020. "Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, May.
    89. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    90. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    91. López-Buenache, Germán & Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Rosa-García, Alfonso, 2025. "Credit cycles as predictors of labor market slack: Evidence from the U․S․," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1097-1111.
    92. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "On seasonality and business cycle durations: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 269-290, August.
    93. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2008. "The Cross‐Sectional Dispersion of Commercial Real Estate Returns and Rent Growth: Time Variation and Economic Fluctuations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 403-439, September.
    94. Yılmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity - Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
    95. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

  76. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  77. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Does the business cycle have duration memory?," Special Studies Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Danny Quah, 1987. "What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series?," NBER Working Papers 2450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
    3. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.

  78. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Layton, Allan P. & Katsuura, Masaki, 2001. "Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 403-417.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
    4. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    5. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
    8. Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    10. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    13. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    14. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    15. Rahul Billakanti & Minchul Shin, 2026. "At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction," Papers 2603.07813, arXiv.org.
    16. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2003. "US composite economic indicator with nonlinear dynamics and the data subject to structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 363-372.
    17. Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016. "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 16125, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    18. Nathan S. Balke & D'Ann M. Petersen, 1998. "How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively," Working Papers 9802, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2014. "Forecasting the Oil-gasoline Price Relationship: Should We Care about the Rockets and the Feathers?," Working Papers 2014.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    23. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    24. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
    26. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    27. Allan P. Layton, 1997. "Do Leading Indicators Really Predict Australian Business Cycle Turning Points?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 258-269, September.
    28. Allan P. Layton, 1994. "Further on the Nature of the Australian Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 12-18, March.
    29. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio & Rodrigues, Claudia Oliveira da Fontoura, 2009. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 694, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    30. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
    31. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," IREA Working Papers 201320, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    32. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    33. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    34. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," IREA Working Papers 201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    35. Allaj, Erindi & Sanfelici, Simona, 2023. "Early Warning Systems for identifying financial instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1777-1803.
    36. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 24580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    38. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    40. Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2014. "Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach," Staff Working Papers 14-37, Bank of Canada.
    41. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
    44. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Javier Sosvilla Rivero, 2013. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-19, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    45. Kumar, Utkarsh & Ahmad, Wasim, 2024. "Navigating the “twin titans” of global manufacturing: The impact of US and China on industrial production forecasting in G20 nations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    46. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7, pages 1-26.
    47. Gwen Eudey & Roberto Perli, 1999. "Regime-switching in expectations over the business cycle," Working Papers 99-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    48. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    49. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1173, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    50. Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
    51. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2017. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-18, CIRANO.
    52. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 2011/235, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Bhanot, Karan, 2005. "What causes mean reversion in corporate bond index spreads? The impact of survival," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1385-1403, June.
    54. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    55. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
    56. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
    57. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2009. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Working Papers 2072/15810, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    58. Simon Hayes, 2001. "Leading indicator information in UK equity prices: an assessment of economic tracking portfolios," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 137, Bank of England.
    59. Gibson, Heather D. & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2001. "Leading inflation indicators for Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 325-348, August.
    60. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
    61. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
    62. Lee, Wei-Ming & Wu, Shue-Jen, 2025. "Do oil price changes contain useful predictive information about the U.S. bear stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    63. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    64. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    65. Shami, R.G. & Forbes, C.S., 2000. "A structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    66. Fuchun Li & Hongyu Xiao, 2016. "Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 16-21, Bank of Canada.
    67. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    68. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
    69. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    70. Christian R. Proaño & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan," IMK Working Paper 188-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    71. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    72. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    73. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-065, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    74. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    76. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
    77. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
    78. Allan Layton & Daniel Smith, 2000. "A further note on the three phases of the US business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(9), pages 1133-1143.
    79. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    80. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q2), pages 1-12.
    81. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1990. "International evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 31, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    83. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    84. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
    85. Lili Hao & Eric C.Y. Ng, 2011. "Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1297-1330, November.
    86. Krüger, Jens J., 2024. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 149438, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    87. Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    88. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
    89. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    90. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    91. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Informed and uninformed traders at work: evidence from the French market," MPRA Paper 24487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    92. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    93. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    94. Veloce, William, 1996. "An evaluation of the leading indicators for the Canadian economy using time series analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 403-416, September.
    95. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2006. "Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-102.
    96. Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Probability of recession," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr5.
    97. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
    98. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
    99. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    100. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
    101. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    102. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
    103. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
    104. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    105. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1999. "Does Seasonality Influence the Dating of Business Cycle Turning Points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, January.
    106. Theo Offerman & Asa B. Palley, 2016. "Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
    107. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    108. Apoteker, Thierry & Barthelemy, Sylvain, 2005. "Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 363-375, December.
    109. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Brian King & Stephen Pratt, 2017. "Predicting hotel occupancies with public data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1096-1113, August.
    110. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    111. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    112. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    113. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    114. Layton, Allan P., 1998. "A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business cycle phase shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-70, March.
    115. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    116. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2017. "An Early Warning System for currency crises in Argentina and Brazil 1990-2009," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 14(2), pages 47-68, Julio-Dic.
    117. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    118. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    119. Broersma, L., 1992. "A bankruptcy constraint and asymmetric influence of the real interest rate on unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    120. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    121. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    122. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    123. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    124. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    125. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
    126. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    127. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
    128. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    129. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    130. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    131. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2014. "A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 23-45.
    132. Lindor Esteban Martín Lucero, 2001. "Reseña:Indice de Producción Industrial y sus ciclos," Working Papers 70, FIEL.
    133. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: The Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," CESifo Working Paper Series 2936, CESifo.
    134. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    135. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
    136. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    137. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    138. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
    139. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8828, CESifo.
    140. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    141. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
    142. Nihat Tak & Adem Gök, 2022. "Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3773-3790, July.
    143. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    144. Shue-Jen Wu & Wei-Ming Lee, 2012. "Predicting the U.S. bear stock market using the consumption-wealth ratio," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3174-3181.
    145. Keith R. Phillips & Lucinda Vargas & Victor Zarnowitz, 1996. "New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II.
    146. David Bock & Eva Andersson & Marianne Frisén, 2005. "Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 465-490.
    147. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series 1540, European Central Bank.
    148. Romero Alberto & Kuper Gerard H. & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Boonman Tjeerd, 2017. "Early Warning Systems with Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2017-16, Banco de México.
    149. Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of volatility models," Research Paper 9524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    150. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-04095385, HAL.
    151. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2007. "Measuring business cycle turning points in Japan with the Markov Switching Panel model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 263-270.
    152. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    153. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    154. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
    155. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
    156. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Can the identification puzzle of Taiwan's turning points after 1990 be solved?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 174-195, January.
    157. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    158. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
    159. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    160. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    161. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2001. "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(1), May.

Articles

  1. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2023. "Climate models underestimate the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2022. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 520-534.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(28), pages 1-05, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Mubeen Abdur Rehman & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Muhammad Zahid Javed & Haider Mahmood, 2024. "The Connectedness Knowledge from Investors’ Sentiments, Financial Crises, and Trade Policy: An Economic Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 20038-20062, December.

  7. Diebold, Francis X. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Zhang, Boyuan, 2021. "Optimal combination of Arctic sea ice extent measures: A dynamic factor modeling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1509-1519.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Climate Change Is a Source of Financial Risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(03), pages 01-06, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Fried, Stephie & Novan, Kevin & Peterman, William B., 2022. "Climate policy transition risk and the macroeconomy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2025. "Spotlight on physical risk: Assessing the banks' stock reaction to the ECB climate stress test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Faria, Joao Ricardo & McAdam, Peter & Viscolani, Bruno, 2021. "Monetary policy, neutrality and the environment," Working Paper Series 2573, European Central Bank.
    4. Komlan Olakossan Gbegnon & Mikémina Pilo & Kounagbè Odilon Boris Lokonon, 2026. "La vulnérabilité au changement climatique entrave‐t‐elle la stabilité financière des économies de l'Afrique subsaharienne?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 38(1), March.
    5. Srividhya Chandran & Prashant Debnath & Hidayathulla Kunnakkavu & Jemima Jose, 2026. "Understanding the Integration of Climate Change Risk and Corporate Financial Risk: A Scientometric Analysis," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 1357-1382, January.
    6. Karim Henide, 2025. "Don't stop greenin': green bond issuance and the equity halo effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(7), pages 741-752, December.
    7. Johannes Stroebel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2021. "What Do You Think about Climate Finance?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9350, CESifo.
    8. Jozef Kalman & Jan Klacso & Roman Vasil & Juraj Zeman, 2023. "What's the Cost of "Saving the Planet" for Banks? Assessing the Indirect Impact of Climate Transition Risks on Slovak Banks' Loan Portfolios," Working and Discussion Papers WP 7/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    9. Chen, Yanyun & Liu, XiangYu & Yao, Ziyan & Tang, Xiaoping, 2025. "Chinese household finance impacted by climate change - Evidence from stock investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    11. Javier Cifuentes-Faura & Hind Alofaysan & Magdalena Radulescu & Buhari Doğan, 2026. "Dynamic spillover effect among carbon finance, bitcoin, and green energy markets: a novel decomposed connectedness and portfolio analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2021. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," NBER Chapters, in: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 3, pages 221-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Carè, R. & Weber, O., 2023. "How much finance is in climate finance? A bibliometric review, critiques, and future research directions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Xue, Jianhao & Dai, Xingyu & Zhang, Dongna & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "Tail risk spillover network among green bond, energy and agricultural markets under extreme weather scenarios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    15. Piluso, Fabio & Strano, Eugenia & Ceraso, Danilo, 2025. "An analytic framework for assessing the impacts of physical risk through a (climate-related) expected shortfall," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

  9. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.

    Cited by:

    1. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Mirkov, Nikola & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing and the Supply of Safe Assets: Evidence from International Bond Safety Premia," Working Paper Series 440, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    6. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Thinggaard Hetland, 2024. "Passive Quantitative Easing: Bond Supply Effects through a Halt to Debt Issuance," Working Paper Series 2023-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    10. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    12. D’Amico, Stefania & Klausmann, Johannes & Pancost, N. Aaron, 2026. "The benchmark greenium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    13. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "The safety premium of safe assets," Working Papers 2021-02, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. C Castro-Iragorri & J RamÔøΩrez, 2021. "Forecasting Dynamic Term Structure Models with Autoencoders," Documentos de Trabajo 19431, Universidad del Rosario.
    19. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2025. "Joint estimation of liquidity and credit risk premia in bond prices with an application," Working Papers 11074, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Carlos Castro-Iragorri & Juan Felipe Peña & Cristhian Rodríguez, 2021. "A Segmented and Observable Yield Curve for Colombia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 179-200.
    21. Jens H. E. Christensen & Xin Zhang, 2025. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 2024-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    23. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon & Wenying Yao & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," Working Papers No 06/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    24. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    25. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    26. Cees Diks & Bram Wouters, 2023. "Noise reduction for functional time series," Papers 2307.02154, arXiv.org.
    27. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    28. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    29. Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2019. "Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Climate Change and the Federal Reserve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Paul Langley & John H Morris, 2020. "Central banks: Climate governors of last resort?," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(8), pages 1471-1479, November.
    3. Simon Dikau & Nick Robins & Matthias Täger, 2019. "Building a sustainable financial system: the state of practice and future priorities," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    4. Zeng, Hongjun & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Wu, Ran & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2024. "Asymmetric dependency among US national financial conditions and clean energy markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Marco Carli & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Policies, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," CEIS Research Paper 543, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Oct 2022.
    7. Liebich, Lena & Nöh, Lukas & Rutkowski, Felix & Schwarz, Milena, 2020. "Current developments in green finance," Working Papers 05/2020, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    8. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8486, CESifo.
    9. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: Central bank communication and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Jooste, Charl & McIsaac, Florent, 2024. "Modeling the macroeconomic consequences of natural disasters: Capital stock, recovery dynamics, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Vigne, Samuel & Zaghini, Andrea, 2025. "Is the Government always greener?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2024. "Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1-27.
    13. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2022. "Climate Change and Double Materiality in a Micro- and Macroprudential Context," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Ángel Estrada & Daniel Santabárbara, 2021. "Recycling carbon tax revenues in Spain. Environmental and economic assessment of selected green reforms," Working Papers 2119, Banco de España.
    15. Brendan Berthold, 2024. "The macro-financial effects of Climate Policy Risk: evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Ayse Sapci & Onur Sapci, 2026. "The Carbon Footprint of U.S. Monetary Policy," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 179-208, January.
    17. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Actions, Market Beliefs and Monetary Policy," CEIS Research Paper 535, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Mar 2022.
    18. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    19. Joao R. Faria & Peter Mcadam & Bruno Viscolani, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Neutrality, and the Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1889-1906, October.
    20. Guerini, Mattia & Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2025. "Easing Financial Constraints Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a Large Sample of French Companies," FEEM Working Papers 376272, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    21. Robert Amano & Marc-André Gosselin & Julien McDonald-Guimond, 2021. "Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data," Staff Working Papers 21-22, Bank of Canada.
    22. Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Duan, Tinghua & Li, Frank Weikai, 2024. "Climate change concerns and mortgage lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    24. Michael Holscher & David Ignell & Morgan Lewis & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2022. "Climate Change and the Role of Regulatory Capital: A Stylized Framework for Policy Assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Florian B¨oser & Chiara Colesanti Senni, 2021. "CAROs: Climate Risk-Adjusted Refinancing Operations," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/354, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

  13. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon & Wenying Yao & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," Working Papers No 06/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. A. Itkin & A. Lipton & D. Muravey, 2020. "From the Black-Karasinski to the Verhulst model to accommodate the unconventional Fed's policy," Papers 2006.11976, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.

  14. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2017. "How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Corneo, Giacomo, 2017. "Ein Staatsfonds, der eine soziale Dividende finanziert," Discussion Papers 2017/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

  15. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Kábrt, Tomáš & Brůna, Karel, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of foreign capital on income inequality: The case of the Post-China 16 countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 613-626.
    5. Osoro, Jared & Talam, Camilla, 2025. "Monetary policy at the turn of financial markets: A forerunner or follower?," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 89, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).

  16. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Will the economic recovery die of old age?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.

  19. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Petr Makovský & Irena Descubes & František Høebík, 2024. "Post-Pandemic Inflation Dynamics: a Comparative Study of the Fiscal Theory in the Czech Republic and France," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 18(2), pages 101-126.
    2. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03471799, HAL.
    3. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

  20. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Pricing Deflation Risk with US Treasury Yields," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1107-1152.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Fernanda Nechio & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2020. "What drives the FOMC’s dot plots?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "What Drives the FOMC’s Dot Plots?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13117, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.

  22. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Optimal policy and market-based expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    2. Woon Gyu Choi & Mr. David Cook, 2018. "Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets," IMF Working Papers 2018/072, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez, 2016. "Differing views on long-term inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Dash, Pradyumna & Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Devaguptapu, Adviti, 2020. "Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

  24. Benjamin Pyle & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel J. Wilson, 2015. "Residual seasonality and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. James Hamlette & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2026. "Residual Seasonality in Some Components of PCE Inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2026(04), pages 1-6, March.

  25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 226-259.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Tim Mahedy & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel J. Wilson, 2015. "The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Keith R. Phillips & Jack Wang, 2016. "Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data," Working Papers 1608, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. John C. Williams, 2015. "Data is the new black: monetary policy by the numbers," Speech 140, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Reitz, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vorübergehend gebremst [World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Schmidt, Torsten & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weiterhin schwaches Tempo der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 5-37.
    6. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Dzikowski, Daniel & Jentsch, Carsten, 2025. "Structural periodic vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 252(PA).
    8. Tucker McElroy, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment subject to accounting constraints," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 574-589, November.
    9. John C. Williams, 2015. "The recovery’s final frontier?," Speech 141, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  28. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-151, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2018. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," NBER Working Papers 25092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    4. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Term Premium as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator," Working Papers 201613, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
    8. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Multi-period Euler-equation learning and term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    10. Eric McCoy, 2019. "A Calibration of the Term Premia to the Euro Area," European Economy - Discussion Papers 110, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 338-341, January.
    12. Emiliano Luttini & Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Bank's Price Setting and Lending Maturity: Evidence from an Inflation- Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 762, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2021. "A Multicountry Model of the Term Structures of Interest Rates with a GVAR," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    14. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    16. Vázquez, Jesús, 2025. "Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Rafael B De Rezende & Annukka Ristiniemi, 2020. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 864, Bank of England.
    18. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
    19. Binder Carola Conces, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and household inflation uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    22. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    24. Sangyong Joo & Daehwan Kim & Jeffrey Nilsen, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Korea: A Decomposition Analysis," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 37, pages 327-366.
    25. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    26. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    27. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    28. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    31. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," CESifo Working Paper Series 6571, CESifo.
    32. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    33. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    34. Hakan Berument & Richard T. Froyen, 2015. "Monetary policy and interest rates under inflation targeting in Australia and New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 171-188, August.
    35. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    36. Goliński, Adam & Spencer, Peter, 2017. "The advantages of using excess returns to model the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 163-181.
    37. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    38. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    39. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 13 Aug 2024.
    41. Gilbert Kofi Adarkwah & Sinziana Dorobantu & Christopher Albert Sabel & Flladina Zilja, 2024. "Geopolitical volatility and subsidiary investments," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 2275-2306, November.
    42. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    43. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    44. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    45. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    46. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    48. Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks, Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    50. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    51. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    52. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    53. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    54. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    55. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    56. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    57. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    58. Giuseppe Grande & Adriana Grasso & Gabriele Zinna, 2019. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s asset purchases at the lower bound," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 541, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    59. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    60. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    61. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    62. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.

  31. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Vasco Curdia, 2015. "Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Mary C. Daly & Fernanda Nechio & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Finding normal: natural rates and policy prescriptions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Benati, Luca, 2020. "Money velocity and the natural rate of interest," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 117-134.
    4. Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Are European bond markets overshooting?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03471799, HAL.
    5. Kurt Graden Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2017. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," Working Papers (Old Series) 1723, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    7. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149, Bank for International Settlements.

  32. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2020. "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2020-009, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    2. Zetty Zahureen Mohd Yusoff & Sharifah Heryati Syed Nor & Rozita Naina Mohamed & Mohamed Shahril Mohamad Besir & Nik Rozila Nik Mohd Masdek & Nor Lela Ahmad & Anusara Sawangchai, 2025. "How Economic and Financial Indicators Shape Bond Market Performance in Asia?," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 17(3), pages 330-345.
    3. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.

  33. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Expectations for monetary policy liftoff," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov18.

    Cited by:

    1. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    2. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    3. Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Fed tapering news and emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Roc Armenter, 2015. "On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions," Working Papers 15-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  34. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 454-467, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    6. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2013. "A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 13-10, Bank of Canada.
    7. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," CREATES Research Papers 2017-31, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    9. Beauregard, Remy & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Zhu, Simon, 2024. "Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Mirko Abbritti & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Antonio Moreno & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2013/223, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rodrigo Guimarães, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 489, Bank of England.
    12. Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Rui Liu, 2021. "Information in the Term Structure: A Forecasting Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5255-5277, August.
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Xiaojin Sun & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on local housing markets: Do regulations matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 989-1015, May.
    15. Yan Liu & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Reconstructing the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Christensen, Jens H. E. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 434, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2025.
    17. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    18. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    19. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
    20. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    21. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    22. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    23. Januj Juneja, 2018. "Empirical performance of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models in the presence of autocorrelation misspecification bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 695-715, April.
    24. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and disaggregated bond excess returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-94.
    25. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Discussion Papers 2024, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    26. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    28. Januj Juneja, 2025. "What is the Effect of Restrictions Imposed by Principal Components Analysis on the Empirical Performance of Dynamic Term Structure Models?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2505-2543, May.
    29. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    30. Fricke, Christoph & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2014. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic factors and (un)expected bond excess returns," Discussion Papers 35/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Adam Golinski & Peter Spencer, 2019. "Estimating the term structure with linear regressions: Getting to the roots of the problem," Discussion Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    32. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Maral Shamloo, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Long-Term Yields in Small Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 17-26, Bank of Canada.
    33. Raviv, Eran, 2015. "Prediction bias correction for dynamic term structure models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 112-115.
    34. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    35. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2016. "Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models," NBER Working Papers 22183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    37. Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2015. "Approximate Non-Similar critical values based tests vs Maximized Monte Carlo tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 387-394.
    38. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    39. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    40. Marek Jarocinski & Albert Marcet, 2015. "Contrasting Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches to Autoregressions: the Role of the Initial Condition," Working Papers 776, Barcelona School of Economics.
    41. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2017. "Below the zero lower bound: a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1991, European Central Bank.
    42. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    43. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano & Jun Ma & Celine Rochon, 2022. "What’s Different about Bank Holding Companies?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-32, April.
    45. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A Market-Based Assessment of the Outlook for Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2026-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    46. Jonathan Hambur & Richard Finlay, 2018. "Affine Endeavour: Estimating a Joint Model of the Nominal and Real Term Structures of Interest Rates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    47. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    49. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    50. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    51. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    52. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2015. "Decomposing Long-Term Interest Rates: An International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 767, Central Bank of Chile.
    53. Michael McGrane, 2025. "A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03," Working Papers 60888, Congressional Budget Office.
    54. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    55. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    56. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    57. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    58. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    59. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2018. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," Working Paper Series 2017-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    60. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
    61. Amaya, Diego & Boudreault, Mathieu & McLeish, Don L., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of first-passage structural credit risk models correcting for the survivorship bias," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 297-313.
    62. El-Shagi, Makram & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Trade effects of silver price fluctuations in 19th-century China: A macro approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    63. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued," Working papers 1012, Banque de France.
    64. Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    65. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea, 2015. "A Shadow-Rate Term Structure Model for the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113159, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    66. Eser, Fabian & Lemke, Wolfgang & Nyholm, Ken & Radde, Sören & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2019. "Tracing the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2293, European Central Bank.
    67. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2106, European Central Bank.
    68. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Central bank credibility during COVID-19: Evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    69. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    70. Sungjun Cho & Liu Liu, 2023. "Correcting estimation bias in regime switching dynamic term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1093-1127, October.
    71. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    72. Andrew Meldrum & Matt Roberts-Sklar, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 575, Bank of England.
    73. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    74. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    75. Munch Grønlund, Asger & Jørgensen, Kasper & Schupp, Fabian, 2024. "Measuring market-based core inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2908, European Central Bank.
    76. Ceballos, Luis & Naudon, Alberto & Romero, Damian, 2014. "Nominal Term Structure and Term Premia. Evidence from Chile," MPRA Paper 60911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Sheheryar Malik & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 518, Bank of England.
    78. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    79. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    80. Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Price pressures in the UK index-linked market: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 968, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    81. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    82. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    83. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    84. Stefan Bruder, 2014. "Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions," ECON - Working Papers 181, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2015.
    85. Geiger, Felix & Schupp, Fabian, 2018. "With a little help from my friends: Survey-based derivation of euro area short rate expectations at the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 27/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    86. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    87. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
    89. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    90. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    91. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2025. "Joint estimation of liquidity and credit risk premia in bond prices with an application," Working Papers 11074, South African Reserve Bank.
    92. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    93. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    94. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5241, CESifo.
    95. Halberstadt, Arne, 2023. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 25-39.
    96. El-Shagi, Makram, 2019. "Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 242-246.
    97. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An & Su, Jiun-Hua, 2025. "Bregman model averaging for forecast combination," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    98. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    99. Glenn Rudebusch & Michael Bauer, 2013. "The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off," 2013 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    100. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2013. "A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound," Working Paper Series 2013-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    101. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    102. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    103. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    104. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    105. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lemke, Wolfgang & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2025. "Time-varying risk aversion and inflation-consumption correlation in an equilibrium term structure model," Working Paper Series 3012, European Central Bank.
    106. Al-Zoubi, Haitham A., 2019. "Bond and option prices with permanent shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 272-290.
    107. Martin Møller Andreasen & Kasper Jørgensen & Andrew Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," CREATES Research Papers 2019-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    108. Timmermann, Allan & Burjack, Rafael & Qu, Ritong, 2019. "Fluctuations in Economic Uncertainty and Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence Using Daily Surveys from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 14097, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    109. Tsz-Kin Chung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Ka-Fai Li, 2015. "Term-Structure Modelling at the Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Estimating the Term Premium," Working Papers 212015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    110. Martin M Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2015. "Dynamic term structure models: the best way to enforce the zero lower bound in the United States," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 550, Bank of England.
    111. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
    112. Goliński, Adam & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Long memory affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 33-56.
    113. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Working Paper Series 2013-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    114. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    115. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
    116. Judith A. Clarke & Nilanjana Roy & Weichun Chen, 2012. "Health and Wealth: Short Panel Granger Causality Tests for Developing Countries," Econometrics Working Papers 1204, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    117. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2018. "A Shadow Rate or a Quadratic Policy Rule? The Best Way to Enforce the Zero Lower Bound in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    118. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
    119. Martin M. Andreasen & Kasper Joergensen & Andrew C. Meldrum, 2019. "Bond Risk Premiums at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    120. Martin M. Andreasen & Andrew Meldrum, 2014. "Dynamic term structure models: The best way to enforce the zero lower bound," CREATES Research Papers 2014-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    121. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    122. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    123. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    124. Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
    125. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    126. Yun, Jaeho, 2023. "International linkages of term structures: US and Korea Treasury bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    127. Billio, M. & Busetto, F. & Dufour, A. & Varotto, S., 2025. "Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    128. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    129. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    130. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2017. "Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions," Staff Working Papers 17-33, Bank of Canada.
    131. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can We Use High-frequency Yield Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and Its Communication? Yes and No!," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    132. Adam Golinski & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2025. "The Shadow Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real!," Working papers 1014, Banque de France.
    133. Yoichi Ueno, 2017. "Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    134. El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    135. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    136. Andrew Meldrum & Marek Raczko & Peter Spencer, 2018. "The information in the joint term structures of bond yields," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 772, Bank of England.
    137. Gideon Magnus, 2016. "A plausible model of yield curve dynamics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(2), pages 205-228, May.
    138. Schmidt, Lawrence D.W., 2025. "Climbing and falling off the ladder: Asset pricing implications of labor market event risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    139. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    140. Solís, Pavel, 2025. "Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    141. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 806, Bank of England.
    142. Adam Kuèera & Evžen Koèenda & Aleš Maršál, 2019. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2019, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

  35. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Signals from unconventional monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.21.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    2. Leo Krippner & Sandra Eickmeier & Julia von Borstel, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    4. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2017. "The impact of quantitative easing on aggregate mutual fund flows in the UK," Working Papers 20171704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    5. Sri Hari NAIDU. A & Phanindra GOYARI & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yields in emerging economies: Some panel inferences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 101-118, Autumn.
    6. Banerjee, Rhythm, 2024. "Shifting Tides: the Effect of Institutional Divestments on the Global Market," MPRA Paper 121922, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2024.
    7. Lawrence Kryzanowski & Jie Zhang & Rui Zhong, 2021. "Currency hedging and quantitative easing: Evidence from global bond markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 555-597, June.

  39. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The Fed's interest rate risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr11.

    Cited by:

    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2012. "Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States," NBER Working Papers 17823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bagus, Philipp & Howden, David, 2014. "Central Bank Insolvency: Causes, Effects and Remedies," MPRA Paper 79605, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  41. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Zheng Liu & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation: mind the gap," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan19.

    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Cem Aysoy & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Turkiye�de Enflasyonun Is Cevrimlerine Duyarliligi : Cikti Acigina Duyarli TUFE Alt Gruplarinin Saptanmasi," Working Papers 1437, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Lillian Kamal, 2014. "Do GAP Models Still have a Role to Play in Forecasting Inflation?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12.
    4. Anna Cororaton & Richard Peach & Robert W. Rich, 2011. "How does slack influence inflation?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(June).
    5. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sell, Friedrich L. & Reinisch, David C., 2013. "How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?," Working Papers in Economics 2013,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    9. Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "Is unemployment helpful in understanding inflation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q IV), pages 5-26.
    10. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2010. "TIPS and the risk of deflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct25.

  43. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "The Fed's exit strategy for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun14.

    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    2. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2017. "The Yellen rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 59-71.
    3. John C. Williams, 2011. "Maintaining price stability in a global economy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may9.
    4. Alexander Lubis & Rangga Pratama & Merlin Dwi Yunaniar & Wahyu Agung Nugroho & Dian Prima Susiandri, 2025. "Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, and lts Implications on Central Bank Policy Transmission," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 28(1), pages 85-116, April.
    5. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    6. Mamaysky, Harry, 2018. "The time horizon of price responses to quantitative easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 32-49.
    7. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Kleczka, Mitja, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Secular Stagnation at the Zero Lower Bound. A View on the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 67228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2011. "The effects of Minsky moment and stock prices on the US Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 27840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ince, Onur & Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2016. "Taylor rule deviations and out-of-sample exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-44.

  45. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.

    Cited by:

    1. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    3. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.

  46. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  47. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "The Fed's monetary policy response to the current crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may22.

    Cited by:

    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    2. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Alvarez, Renzo & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2026. "Tariffs, inflation and monetary policy: Implications for welfare," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. John C. Williams, 2009. "Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Hess T. Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "The Fed's interest rate risk," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr11.
    8. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    9. Williams, John C., 2014. "Policy rules in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 151-153.
    10. Skaperdas, Arsenios, 2025. "Industry growth at the lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Emiliano Brancaccio & Giuseppe Fontana, 2013. "'Solvency rule' versus 'Taylor rule': an alternative interpretation of the relation between monetary policy and the economic crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(1), pages 17-33.
    12. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-9.
    13. Hayford, Marc D. & Malliaris, A.G., 2011. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession: The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 73-90.
    14. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Javier García-Cicco, 2011. "Heterodox Central Banking," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 8, pages 219-281, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    16. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2019. "The Great Trade Collapse: An Evaluation of Competing Stories," Working Papers 1902, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    17. Laurence Ball, 2013. "The Case for Four Percent Inflation," Economics Working Paper Archive 607, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    18. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Rannenberg, Ansgar & Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers: A comment," Discussion Papers 2014/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2009. "The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit," Policy Briefs PB09-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Michael B. Devereux, 2011. "Fiscal Deficits, Debt, and Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 10, pages 369-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. John C. Williams, 2016. "Rules of engagement," Speech 163, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Ewen Gallic & Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2017. "L’impact de la crise fiancière sur la performance de la politique monétaire conventionnelle de la zone euro," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-06, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    23. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 164-192, February.
    25. Timothy Anderson & John Hawkins, 2021. "Modelling the Reserve Bank of Australia's Policy Decisions and the Case for a Negative Cash Rate," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(2), pages 179-189, June.
    26. Bean, Charles, 2016. "Living with low for long," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65803, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Joel Wagner, 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence against a “greasing effect”," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1028, August.
    28. Saad Ahmad, 2020. "Identifying a robust policy rule for the Fed's response to financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 565-578, October.
    29. Laurence M. Ball, 2014. "The Case for a Long-Run Inflation Target of Four Percent," IMF Working Papers 2014/092, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2017. "Reassessing the Impact of the US Fiscal Stimulus: The Role of the Monetary Policy Stance," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 12-31, April.
    31. Kevin M. Murphy & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Income and Wealth in America," Book Chapters, in: Tom Church & Chris Miller & John B. Taylor (ed.), Inequality & Economic Policy, chapter 6, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

  48. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    3. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Flávio de Freitas Val & Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo & Marcelo Verdini Maia, 2011. "Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 83-100, July.
    5. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    6. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields," Working Paper Series 2013-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 441, Bank of England.
    10. Michael Abrahams & Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Staff Reports 570, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2011. "The information content of the embedded deflation pption in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Staff Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The response of interest rates to U.S. and U.K. quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Pricing deflation risk with U.S. Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.

  49. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Publishing central bank interest rate forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan25.

    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    2. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Ozer Karagedikli & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Quantitative or Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does it Matter?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 491-503, December.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. John C. Williams, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 367-375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  51. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  52. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Publishing FOMC economic forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan18.

    Cited by:

    1. Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201213, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  54. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 241-270.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "Monetary policy inertia and recent Fed actions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan26.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Goodhart, Charles & Bin Lim, Wen, 2008. "Interest rate forecasts: a pathology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  57. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  58. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  59. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  60. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug5.

    Cited by:

    1. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2010. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis," Economics Working Papers 2010-10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Carlos Parodi Trece, 2009. "Las Crisis Financieras: Un Marco Conceptual," Working Papers 09-16, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    3. Fouejieu, Armand & Popescu, Alexandra & Villieu, Patrick, 2019. "Trade-offs between macroeconomic and financial stability objectives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 621-639.
    4. Bask, Mikael, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability," Working Papers 540, Hanken School of Economics.
    5. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    6. Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "House price booms, current account deficits, and low interest rates," Staff Reports 541, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Marcelo Ochoa C., 2007. "Política Monetaria, Precios de Activos y Estabilidad Financiera: Una Revisión de la Literatura," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(3), pages 115-127, December.
    8. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128P.
    9. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.

  61. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  62. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 415-420, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  63. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  64. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.

    Cited by:

    1. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Daniel, Betty C., 2014. "The Inflation Target at the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 66096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    5. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    6. Cho, Sungjun, 2013. "New return anomalies and new-Keynesian ICAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-106.
    7. Shu Wu, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200512, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2005.
    8. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    9. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 322, Bank of England.
    13. Mariano Kulish, 2005. "Should Monetary Policy use Long-term Rates?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 635, Boston College Department of Economics.
    14. Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel, 2011. "The yield curve in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 268-279.
    17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield “Conundrum” from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    19. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.
    20. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Faculty Working Papers 04/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    21. Qiang Dai & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
    24. Hibiki Ichiue, 2005. "How Do Monetary Policy Rules Affect Term Premia?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    25. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    26. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
    28. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies: The Case of Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 2005/172, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Niklas J. Westelius & Mathias Hoffmann & Jens Sondergaard, 2007. "The Timing and Magnitude of Exchange Rate Overshooting," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 418, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    31. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2007. "Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 734, European Central Bank.
    32. Ivan Shaliastovich & Ravi Bansal, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 778, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  65. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  66. Richard Dennis & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2003. "Finance and macroeconomics," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may2.

    Cited by:

    1. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.
    2. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Ying He, 2011. "An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2011/247, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
    6. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    7. Joseph Gyourko & Raven Molloy, 2014. "Regulation and Housing Supply," NBER Working Papers 20536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Malpezzi, Stephen, 2001. "NIMBYs and Knowledge: Urban Regulation and the "New Economy"," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt7d81r1v9, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    10. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.

  67. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  68. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  69. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2002. "Macroeconomic models for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr19.

    Cited by:

    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Economic Policy - the Forth Dimension of the Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 112685, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  70. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  71. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  72. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Has a recession already started?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct19.

    Cited by:

    1. Chung, Chris Changwha & Beamish, Paul W., 2005. "Investment mode strategy and expatriate strategy during times of economic crisis," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 331-355, September.

  73. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.

    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2012. "Economic Cycles: A Synthesis," Working Papers 12-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peiro, Amado, 2005. "Economic comovements in European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, July.
    4. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2002. "Predicting when the economy will turn," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar15.
    6. Robert Krol & Shirley Svorny, 2007. "Budget Rules and State Business Cycles," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(4), pages 530-544, July.
    7. Aleksandra Gaweł, 2004. "The Business Cycle Dependent Fluctuation of Employment in Sectors in Polish Economy," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 12.
    8. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    10. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 267-282.
    11. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    12. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Working Papers 10-04, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

  74. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "How fast can the new economy grow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb25.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.

  75. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  76. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "The goals of U.S. monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan29.

    Cited by:

    1. Willem Thorbecke, "undated". "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve, The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_60, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "A look inside two central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jan), pages 11-30.

  77. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Carl E. Walsh, 1998. "U.S. inflation targeting: pro and con," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may29.

    Cited by:

    1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. Jon Faust & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "The equilibrium degree of transparency and control in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 651, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jan Libich, 2006. "Inflexibility of Inflation Targeting Revisited: Modeling the "Anchoring" Effect," CAMA Working Papers 2006-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  78. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  79. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.

    Cited by:

    1. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    2. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    3. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US data," Macroeconomics 0111005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Pelin Ilbas, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area in a DSGE Framework," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    8. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Wieland, Volker & Taylor, John B., 2010. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new model database," Working Paper Series 1261, European Central Bank.
    10. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2017. "The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 165-184, April.
    11. Andrew Blake, 2012. "Fixed interest rates over finite horizons," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 454, Bank of England.
    12. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Papers 06-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Sep), pages 613-626.
    17. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Seminar Papers 667, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    18. Sergio Destefanis, 2003. "Measuring macroeconomic performance through a non-parametric Taylor curve," CSEF Working Papers 95, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    19. Aaron Drew & Benjamin Hunt, 1999. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Martha López P., 2003. "Efficient Policy Rule for Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 240, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7827, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    22. Ajax R. B. Moreira & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2015. "Robustness and Stabilization Properties of Monetary Policy Rules in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0100, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    23. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2012. "How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," NBP Working Papers 112, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    25. Jan Strasky, 2005. "Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    26. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    27. Helge Berger & Ulrich Woitek, 1999. "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series 190, CESifo.
    28. Evgeniya Duzhak & Jody Hoff & Jane S. Lopus, 2021. "The Effects of the Chair the Fed Simulation on High School Students’ Knowledge," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(1), pages 74-89, March.
    29. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2003.
    31. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    32. Ugomori, Takayuki, 2007. "The relative efficiency of various targeting regimes in Japan: A simulation study with linear quadratic dynamic programming," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-302, March.
    33. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    34. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    35. Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Enrique L�pez Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Inter�s Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    36. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    37. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19.
    38. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & Vasco Gabriel, 2008. "Taylor-type rules versus optimal policy in a Markov-switching economy¤," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0608, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    40. Lindbeck, Assar & Wikström, Solveig, 1999. "The ICT Revolution in Consumer Product Markets," Seminar Papers 670, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    41. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    42. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    43. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    44. Danfeng Kong & Osamu Kamoike, "undated". "The stability condition of a forward looking Taylor rule," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    45. Nadia Saleem, 2010. "Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 51-76, Jul-Dec.
    46. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Pedro N. Rodriguez, 2006. "Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 30, Society for Computational Economics.
    47. Rodríguez,Gabriel, 2008. "Eficiencia de la política monetaria y la estabilidad de las preferencias del Banco Central. Evidencia empírica para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 15, pages 9-20.
    48. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    49. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The first Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," Seminar Papers 681, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    50. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Jul), pages 23-34.
    51. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
    52. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Using Taylor Rules as Efficiency Benchmarks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0043, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2001.
    53. Piti Disyatat, 2005. "Inflation targeting, asset prices and financial imbalances: conceptualizing the debate," BIS Working Papers 168, Bank for International Settlements.
    54. Francesca Rondina, 2015. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona School of Economics.
    55. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Khalid, Norlin & Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Yussof, Izzuddin, 2014. "Testing a Non-Linear Model of Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 48(2), pages 19-27.
    57. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Timeless Perspective Vs Discretionary Monetary Policy in Forward-Looking Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2752, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    58. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2009. "Rational expectations models with anticipated shocks and optimal policy: a general solution method and a new Keynesian example," Economics Working Papers 2009-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    59. René Lalonde, 2000. "Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine," Staff Working Papers 00-19, Bank of Canada.
    60. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation under Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 477, Stockholm School of Economics.
    61. Ebru Yuksel & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "A Survey on Time Varying Parameter Taylor Rule: A Model Modified with Interest Rate Pass Through," Working Papers 2012/08, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    62. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 164, Bank of England.
    63. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2007. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Laséen, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E.O., 2011. "Anticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," Working Paper Series 248, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    65. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2006. "U.S. Inflation Dynamics: What Drives Them Over Different Frequencies?," IMF Working Papers 2006/159, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Monetary Policy and Cautious Prediction of the Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/40, European University Institute.
    67. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    68. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    69. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    70. John B. Taylor, 2018. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 18102, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    71. Javier G�mez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," Borradores de Economia 2854, Banco de la Republica.
    72. Carlo Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Working Papers 298, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    73. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    75. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    76. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    77. John B. Taylor, 2002. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 2, pages 021-046, Central Bank of Chile.
    78. De Grauwe, Paul & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2001. "Union-wide Aggregates versus National Data Based Monetary Policies: Does it Matter for the Eurosystem?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3036, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    79. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    80. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    81. Lars E O Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    82. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    84. Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    85. Sylvia Staudinger, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 301, CESifo.
    86. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    87. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    88. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q I), pages 5-38.
    89. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    90. Goodhart, Charles & Boris Hofmann, 2002. "Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 88, Royal Economic Society.
    91. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    92. Lindbeck, Assar, 2000. "Pensions and Contemporary Socioeconomic Change," Seminar Papers 685, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    93. Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649, Central Bank of Chile.
    94. Cabrera, Nilda & Bejarano, Edilean & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2011. "Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary policy rules in the inflation targeting regime," Working Papers 2011-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    95. Dossche, Maarten & Everaert, Gerdie, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Series 495, European Central Bank.
    96. Martha López, 2005. "House Prices and Monetary Policy in Colombia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 349, Central Bank of Chile.
    97. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    98. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    99. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2008. "Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 77-118, September.
    100. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    101. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo.
    102. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    103. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2011. "Banks' Net Interest Margin in the 2000s: A Macro-Accounting international perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1214-1233, October.
    104. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    105. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
    106. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    107. P.A. Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in an Empirical Macro Model with Asymmetric Information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 146, Society for Computational Economics.
    108. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    109. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    110. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society.
    111. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    112. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 484, Central Bank of Chile.
    113. Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    114. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
    115. Zheng Liu & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation: mind the gap," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan19.
    116. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    117. Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2006. "Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland," IMF Working Papers 2006/262, International Monetary Fund.
    118. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2007. "A policy-sensible core-inflation measure for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    119. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2007. "Solution of RE Models with Anticipated Shocks and Optimal Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-32, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    120. Man Cho, 2014. "Housing price and mortgage credit cycles: tales of two countries," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 5, pages 82-111, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    121. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    122. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics.
    123. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    124. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    125. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    126. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    127. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    128. Mr. Jorge Roldos, 2006. "Disintermediation and Monetary Transmission in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2006/084, International Monetary Fund.
    129. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    130. Ben Martin, 1999. "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 105, Bank of England.
    131. Arend, Mario, 2005. "Efectos de una nueva medida de shock monetario bajo el esquema de metas de inflación en Chile [Effects of a New Measure of Monetary Shock Under Inflation Targeting in Chile]," MPRA Paper 27156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    132. Günter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    133. Ben Martin & Chris Salmon, 1999. "Should uncertain monetary policy-makers do less?," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 99, Bank of England.
    134. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    135. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(2), pages 231-252, June.
    136. Lars Svensson, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 403, Central Bank of Chile.
    137. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
    138. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 278, CESifo.
    139. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    140. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2005. "Changing Effects of Monetary Policy in the U.S. –Evidence from a Time-Varying Coefficient VAR," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 144, Society for Computational Economics.
    141. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    142. Ferhat MIHOUBI & Pascal JACQUINOT, 2004. "The Optimality of the US and Euro Area Taylor Rule," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 220, Society for Computational Economics.
    143. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”," IMF Working Papers 2009/101, International Monetary Fund.
    144. Bergljot Barkbu & Vincenzo Cassino & Aileen Gosselin-Lotz & Laura Piscitelli, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the United States and the euro area: aggregation bias, stability and robustness," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 285, Bank of England.
    145. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    146. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An optimizing model for monetary policy analysis: can habit formation help?," Working Papers 98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    147. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    148. Timothy Kim & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering the Hit-list for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    149. Ida Wolden Bache & Øistein Røislanda & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2011. "Interest Rate Smoothing and "Calvo-Type" Interest Rate Rules: A Comment on Levine, McAdam, and Pearlman (2007)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 79-90, September.
    150. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
    151. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    152. Joseph Djivre & Sigal Ribon, 2000. "Monetary Policy, the Output Gap and Inflation: A Closer Look at the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Israel 1989-1999," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2000.09, Bank of Israel.
    153. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    154. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    155. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics.
    156. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    157. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    158. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1998. "Tradeoffs between inflation and output-gap variances in an optimizing-agent model," International Finance Discussion Papers 627, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    159. Rafael Di Tella & Robert MacCulloch, 2007. "Happiness, Contentment and Other Emotions for Central Banks," NBER Working Papers 13622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    160. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    161. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2004. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Macroeconomics 0404026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    162. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    163. Laurence H. Meyer & Eric T. Swanson & Volker W. Wieland, 2001. "NAIRU uncertainty and nonlinear policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    164. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 1999. "Econometric Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 0502, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Oct 2001.
    165. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    166. Schalck, Christophe, 2006. "Règles Budgétaires et Gestion du Policy-Mix dans l'UEM Budgetary Rules and Management of the Policy-Mix in the UME," MPRA Paper 1434, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2006.
    167. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier G�mez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 3309, Banco de la Republica.
    168. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2008. "A new approach for modelling and understanding optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 13-15, July.
    169. Alsterlind, Jan & Markowski, Alek & Nilsson, Kristian, 2004. "Modelling the Foreign Sector in a Macroeconometric Model of Sweden," Working Papers 88, National Institute of Economic Research.
    170. Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
    171. Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter & Yunus Aksoy, 1999. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Euroland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 299-318, December.
    172. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    173. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    174. Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Targeting Inflation with a Prominent Role for Money," Working Paper Series 123, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    175. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    176. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2007. "An estimated New Keynesian policy model for Australia," MPRA Paper 4138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    177. Persson, Mats, 2000. "Five Fallacies in the Social Security Debate," Seminar Papers 686, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    178. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    179. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    180. Juha Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Jouko Vilmunen, 2007. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 113, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    181. dogru, bulent & marabaoglu, akif, 2011. "Impact of inflatıon gap to nomınal interest rates: case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 40472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    182. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    183. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    184. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "The Design of a 'Two-Pillar' Monetary Policy Strategy," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    185. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    186. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    187. Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2007. "Counterintuitive response to tax incentives? Mortgage interest deductions and the demand for debt," Discussion Papers 492, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    188. T. Asada & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the wage price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 262, Society for Computational Economics.
    189. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    190. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2010.
    191. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 225-245.
    192. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2016. "The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 257-278, May.
    193. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," MPRA Paper 6854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    194. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 16654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    195. Karen Dury & Ray Barell & Ian Hurst, 2000. "An Encompassing Framework For Evaluating Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 184, Society for Computational Economics.
    196. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 07-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    197. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    198. Romaniuk, Katarzyna & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Asset Prices and Assymetries in the Fed's Interest Rate Rule : a Financial Approach," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08006, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    199. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
    200. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    201. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Post-Print hal-01010831, HAL.
    202. Francesca Rondina, 2015. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona School of Economics.
    203. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2001. "Asset prices, financial conditions and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    204. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    205. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & James M. Nason & Giacomo Rondina, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    206. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    207. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    208. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    209. Arturo Estrella, 2002. "Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 243-255.
    210. Fabio Milani, 2004. "Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Macroeconomics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    211. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    212. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 14510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    213. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    214. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    215. Sauer, Stephan, 2007. "Discretion rather than rules? When is discretionary policy-making better than the timeless perspective?," Working Paper Series 717, European Central Bank.
    216. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    217. Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    218. Toichiro Asada & Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: A Baseline Disequilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 139, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    219. Alex Cukierman & V. Anton Muscatelli, 2002. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? - Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 764, CESifo.
    220. Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 149, Bank of England.
    221. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
    222. Jean-Paul Lam & Florian Pelgrin, 2004. "The Implications of Transmission and Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation," Staff Working Papers 04-37, Bank of Canada.
    223. Gongpil Choi, 2003. "Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 113-142.
    224. Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442, Bank for International Settlements.
    225. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    226. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Implications of habit formation for optimal monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    227. Giordani, Paolo, 2001. "An Alternative Explanation of the Price Puzzle," Working Paper Series 125, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    228. Bofinger, Peter & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Teaching New Keynesian Open Economy Macroeconomics at the Intermediate Level," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 66, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    229. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    230. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2007. "Optimal exchange rate policy in a low interest rate environment," MPRA Paper 3596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    231. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    232. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    233. Dennis, Richard & Söderström, Ulf, 2002. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 139, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    234. Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM & Mohammad Taslim UDDIN, 2011. "Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 106-119, June.
    235. Lars E. O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 275-294.
    236. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    237. Hohberger, Stefan & Herz, Bernhard, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Regimes and Current Account Dynamics," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    238. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "Houses as collateral: has the link between house prices and consumption in the U.K. changed?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 163-177.
    239. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    240. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Junhan Kim, 2003. "Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Output Variability," NBER Working Papers 9672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    241. C. Chiarella & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 149, Society for Computational Economics.
    242. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    243. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomics Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 08/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    244. Gabriele Galati, 1999. "The Dollar - Mark axis," BIS Working Papers 74, Bank for International Settlements.
    245. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    246. Daniel H. Cooper & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2016. "Monetary policy and regional house-price appreciation," Working Papers 16-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    247. Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, "undated". "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    248. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 119, Bank of England.
    249. James Yetman, 2000. "Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 00-10, Bank of Canada.
    250. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    251. Abdelli Soulaima, 2014. "A Welfare Based Approach for choosing the Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Regime in Tunisia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(12), pages 919-932.
    252. Alexei Onatski, 2000. "Minimax Analysis of Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1818, Econometric Society.
    253. Arend, Mario, 2007. "An Analytical Solution for the Interest Rate Reaction Function in a Neo- Keynesian Economy Using the Undetermined Coefficients Method," MPRA Paper 17908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    254. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    255. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    256. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 404, Central Bank of Chile.
    257. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    258. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    259. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    260. Edward Nelson, 2000. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 122, Bank of England.
    261. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2005.
    262. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    263. Gertler, Mark & Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    264. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
    265. Kaushik Mitra, "undated". "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York.
    266. Peter Bofinger & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 81-109, June.
    267. Jordi Galí & J David López-Salido, 2001. "A New Phillips curve for Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 174-203, Bank for International Settlements.
    268. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    269. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77.
    270. Willi Semmler & Alfred Greiner & Wenlang Zhang, 2002. "Monetary policy in the euro area: Was it too tight in the 1990s?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 283-297, September.
    271. André Minella, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Gains from Commitment, and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 45, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    272. Michael Dotsey, 1999. "The importance of systematic monetary policy for economic activity," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 41-60.
    273. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    274. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 6957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    275. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Nathalie Payelle, 2001. "Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 531-568.
    276. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model uncertainty in macroeconomics: On the implications of financial frictions," IMFS Working Paper Series 114, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    277. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    278. Svensson, Lars E.O. & LASEEN, PER, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8176, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    279. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2004. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted to Asset Price Movements? Evidence from the UK," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 7(1), pages 18-33, Summer.
    280. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
    281. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Nov), pages 39-61.
    282. Fethi Oğunc & Inci Batmaz, 2009. "Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 683-693.
    283. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    284. Lindbeck, Assar, 1998. "Swedish Lessons for Post-Socialist Countries," Seminar Papers 645, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    285. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    286. Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    287. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2575, CESifo.
    288. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2004.
    289. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Bogdan Cosmaciuc, 2006. "In noise we trust? Optimal monetary policy with random targets," Working Papers 06-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    290. Claeys, Sophie, 2005. "Optimal regulatory design for the Central Bank of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2005, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    291. Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    292. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    293. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September.
    294. Cristi SPULBĂR & Cristian STANCIU & Mihai NIŢOI, 2011. "The Macroeconomic Performance of Monetary Policies. A Stochastic Simulation Based on the Taylor’s Rule," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(6), pages 1-15, October.
    295. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    296. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2004. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    297. Renee A. Fry-McKibbin & Chen Wang, 2014. "Does Inflation Targeting Outperform Alternative Policies during Global Downturns?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    298. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    299. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
    300. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Commentary : challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-67.
    301. Jack McKeown & Jens McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    302. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2000. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Working papers 76, Banque de France.
    303. Barrell, Ray & Dury, Karen & Hurst, Ian, 2003. "International monetary policy coordination: an evaluation using a large econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 507-527, May.
    304. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    305. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    306. Costas Karfakis, 2011. "On money and output in the euro area: Is money redundant?," Discussion Paper Series 2011_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2011.
    307. Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2007. "Inflation persistence: Implications for a design of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to external shocks," CEIS Research Paper 93, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    308. Christopher J. Neely, 2003. "The Federal Reserve responds to crises: September 11th was not the first," Working Papers 2003-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    309. Paolo Gelain, 2007. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule For the European Central Bank," EcoMod2007 23900028, EcoMod.
    310. Ami Barnea & Joseph Djivre, 2004. "Changes in Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and the Transmission Mechanism in Israel, 1989.IV – 2002.I," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.13, Bank of Israel.
    311. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2003. "Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(3), pages 297-326.
    312. Chaouech, Olfa, 2012. "La politique de ciblage d'inflation: fondements théoriques et validation empirique [The inflation targeting policy: theoretical and empirical validation]," MPRA Paper 60760, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2014.
    313. Meixing DAI, 2010. "Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy," Working Papers of BETA 2010-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    314. Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    315. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    316. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 169, Bank of England.
    317. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    318. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Giacomo Rondina, 2008. "Design Limits and Dynamic Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    319. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    320. Alastair Cunninghan & Andrew G. Haldane, 2002. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the United Kingdom: Pass-Through and Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 331-356, Central Bank of Chile.
    321. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 2265, IZA Network @ LISER.
    322. Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "Greenspan and the Greenbook," Economics Working Paper Archive 472, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    323. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "The performance of monetary and fiscal rules in an open economy with imperfect capital mobility," Research Working Paper RWP 05-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    324. Antonio, Paradiso & Kumar, Saten & Rao, B Bhaskara, 2011. "A New Keynesian IS Curve for Australia: Is it Forward Looking or Backward Looking?," MPRA Paper 35296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    325. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    326. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    327. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    328. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    329. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    330. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Working Paper Series 114, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    331. Gregory Erin Givens, 2006. "Revisiting the Delegation Problem in a Sticky Price and Wage Economy," Working Papers 200601, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    332. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    333. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    334. Graham M. Voss & M. Chaban, 2012. "National and Provincial Inflation in Canada: Experiences under Inflation Targeting," Department Discussion Papers 1201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    335. D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2010. "Estimating Central Bank preferences in a small open economy: Sweden 1995-2009," MPRA Paper 26575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    336. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "Can a Calibrated New-Keynesian Model of Monetary Policy Fit the Facts?," Working Paper Series 140, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    337. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Simple Monetary Policy Rules," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 478, Stockholm School of Economics.
    338. Bernd Hayo & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in EMU," Macroeconomics 0203003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    339. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    340. Rubina Hassan, 2011. "The Reserve Equation and the Analytics of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 111-142, Jan-Jun.
    341. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Mar), pages 21-30.
    342. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    343. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
    344. Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Is the Quantity of Government Debt a Constraint for Monetary Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2007/062, International Monetary Fund.

  80. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Montoro, 2007. "Monetary Policy Committees and Interest Rate Smoothing," CEP Discussion Papers dp0780, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    3. Ajimuda Olumide, 2009. "Price Volatility, Expectations and Monetary Policy in Nigeria," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 109-140, May.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 173-190.
    5. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
    6. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    7. Gordon H. Sellon, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and private sector forecasts: evidence from survey data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q III), pages 7-34.
    8. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2004.
    9. Wasim Shahid Malik, 2007. "Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan : An Empirical Investigation," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22212, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. George Monokroussos, 2006. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 06-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Yuhua Cui, 2010. "US–Euro Area Monetary Policy Interdependence: New Evidence from Taylor Rule‐based VECMs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 778-797, May.
    12. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(2), pages 155-185, June.
    13. Malcolm Edey, 2006. "An Australian perspective on inflation targeting, communication and transparency," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 3-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Jiang, Chun & Jian, Na & Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Purchasing power parity and real exchange rate in Central Eastern European countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 349-358.
    15. Barbara Annicchiarico & Nicola Giammaroli & Alessandro Piergallini, 2011. "Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons," CEIS Research Paper 207, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Jul 2011.
    16. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: Should It Be Modeled as an Instrument Rule or a Targeting Rule?," NBER Working Papers 8925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & CHALLE, Edouard, 2011. "Stock Prices and Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8387, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Groshenny, Nicolas & Haque, Qazi & Weder, Mark, 2017. "Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 83-95.
    19. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Monetary Policy and Cautious Prediction of the Output Gap," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/40, European University Institute.
    20. Bennani, Hamza & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2018. "Disagreement between FOMC members and the Fed’s staff: New insights based on a counterfactual interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-153.
    21. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    22. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    24. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Li Qin & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2016. "Robustness of Optimal Interest Rate Rules in an Open Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 29-46.
    26. Vanderhart, Peter G., 2000. "The Federal Reserve's Reaction Function under Greenspan: An Ordinal Probit Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 631-644, October.
    27. Pablo Pincheira & Mauricio Calani, 2009. "Communicational Bias In Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 526, Central Bank of Chile.
    28. Javier G�mez & Jos� Dar�o Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    29. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    30. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    31. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Expected monetary policy and the dynamics of bank lending rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 542-551.
    32. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    33. Mauricio Calani & Kevin Cowan & Pablo García S., 2010. "Inflation Targeting in Financially Stable Economies: Has it been Flexible Enough?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 587, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. George Monokroussos, 2009. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Discussion Papers 09-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    35. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2013. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    36. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2011. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 8472, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    37. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Zhu, Yanli & Chen, Haiqiang, 2017. "The asymmetry of U.S. monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold Taylor rule with time-varying threshold values," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 522-535.
    39. Lena Dräger & Michael Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar, 2015. "Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen & Alan Thanaset, 2006. "Forecasting changes in UK interest rates," Discussion Papers 06/06, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    41. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    42. Rafael Domenech & Mayte Ledo & David Taguas, 2001. "A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU," Working Papers 0102, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    43. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2005. "Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    44. Domenech, Rafael & Ledo, Mayte & Taguas, David, 2002. "Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 431-446.
    45. Scott, C. Patrick & Barari, Mahua, 2017. "Monetary policy deviations: A Bayesian state-space analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    46. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
    47. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    48. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009," MPRA Paper 26124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Gustavo Nicol√°s P√°ez, 2015. "Prediciendo decisiones de agentes econ√≥micos: ¬øC√≥mo determina el Banco de la Rep√∫blica de Colombia la tasa de inter√©s?," Documentos CEDE 12567, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    50. Vasco Curdia & Andrea Ferrero & Ging Cee Ng & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Evaluating interest rate rules in an estimated DSGE model," Staff Reports 510, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    51. Éric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 357-388.
    52. Pardo, S. & Rautureau, N. & Vallée, T., 2011. "Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2761-2775.
    53. Boehm, Christoph E. & House, Christopher L., 2019. "Optimal Taylor rules when targets are uncertain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 274-286.
    54. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2005. "Back to Keynes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1424, CESifo.
    55. D H Kim & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 18, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    56. Carlos Montoro, 2007. "Why Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates? A Political Economy Explanation," Working Papers 2007-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    57. Martin Mandler, 2010. "Explaining ECB and FED interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201025, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    58. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2013. "Design limits and dynamic policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2710-2728.
    59. Mandler, Martin, 2012. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using time-varying Taylor rules and real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 228-245.
    60. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2011. "Changes in the Federal Reserve Communication Strategy: A Structural Investigation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    61. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    62. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece.
    63. Patra, Michael Debabrata & Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Gangadaran, Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "The quest for optimal monetary policy rules in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 349-370.
    64. Bertram, Philip & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Stahl, Gerhard, 2011. "About the Impact of Model Risk on Capital Reserves: A Quantitative Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-469, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    65. Giannoni, Marc P., 2014. "Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-129.
    66. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Paiva, Claudio A.C., 2017. "Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 31-52.
    67. Koulischer, François & Struyven, Daan, 2014. "Central bank liquidity provision and collateral quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 113-130.
    68. Hayford, M. D. & Malliaris, A. G., 2005. "How did the Fed react to the 1990s stock market bubble? Evidence from an extended Taylor rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 20-29, May.
    69. lahlou, kamal, 2009. "Essai d’estimation de la fonction de réaction de Bank Al-Maghrib [Estimation of Bank Al-Maghrib Reaction Function]," MPRA Paper 98018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    70. Phuong Ngo & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Does Calvo Meet Rotemberg at the Zero Lower Bound?," 2015 Meeting Papers 602, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    71. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    72. Teles, Vladimir Kuhl & Zaidan, Marta Penteado, 2009. "Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countriesw," Textos para discussão 197, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    73. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman & Roland Straub, 2010. "Time Variation in U.S. Wage Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3291, CESifo.
    75. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
    76. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    77. Jensen, Christian, 2014. "Discretionary policy exploiting learning in a sticky-information model of the inflation-output trade-off: Bridging the gap to commitment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-158.
    78. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Gerlach, Stefan, 2011. "ECB Repo Rate Setting During the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8346, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    80. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MPRA Paper 13498, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    81. M Kesriyeli & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 44, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    82. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomics 0409023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    84. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
    85. Guillaume L`oeillet & Julien Licheron, 2009. "The role of oil prices in monetary policy rules: evidence from 4 major central banks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2361-2371.
    86. Rizki E. Wimanda & Paul M. Turner & Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2012. "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 469-484, August.
    87. Anthony Diercks, 2016. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    88. Renata Grzeda Latocha & Gernot Nerb, 2004. "Modelling Short-term Interest Rates in the Euro Area Using Business Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 43-69.
    89. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    90. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo & Villarreal, Francisco, 2008. "A modified Taylor rule for dealing with demand shocks and uncertain potential macroeconomic output," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(5), pages 1283-1300.
    91. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2017. "Monetary Policy Rules Under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1400-1415, July.
    92. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    93. Thanassis Kazanas & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules And Business Cycle Conditions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 73-97, September.
    94. Genberg, Hans & Gerlach, Stefan, 2010. "Swiss Monetary Policy, 2000-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 7805, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    95. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "Do natural disasters affect monetary policy? A quasi-experiment of earthquakes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    96. Down Ian, 2009. "Central Bank Independence, Disinflations and Monetary Policy," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, January.
    97. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    98. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    99. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    100. Alain Durré & Mr. Bernard J Laurens & Alexandre Chailloux, 2009. "Requirements for Using Interest Rates As An Operating Target for Monetary Policy: The Case of Tunisia," IMF Working Papers 2009/149, International Monetary Fund.
    101. Fritsche, Ulrich, 2006. "Ergebnisse der ökonometrischen Untersuchung zum Forschungsprojekt Wirtschaftspolitische Regime westlicher Industrienationen," Working Papers 24, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB).
    102. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    103. Bennani, Hamza & Farvaque, Etienne & Stanek, Piotr, 2018. "Influence of regional cycles and personal background on FOMC members’ preferences and disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 416-424.
    104. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    105. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    106. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2009. "Using Taylor Rule to Explain Effects of Institutional Changes in Central Banks," Discussion Papers 46, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    107. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
    108. Waters, George A., 2022. "The many faces of the taylor rule for advanced undergraduate macroeconomics," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    109. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7933, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

  81. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Tomoya Suzuki, 2008. "International Credit Channel Of Monetary Policy: An Empirical Note," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 396-407, December.
    2. Rui Manuel Pereira, Alfredo Marvao Pereira and William J. Hausman, 2017. "Railroad Infrastructure Investments and Economic Development in the Antebellum United States," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    4. Koeniger, Winfried & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2018. "Home ownership and monetary policy transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 615, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with Sign Restrictions Not Identify Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/973, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79.
    8. Giavazzi, Francesco & Favero, Carlo A., 2010. "Reconciling VAR-based and Narrative Measures of the Tax-Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 7769, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment, Labor Productivity, and International Competitiveness: The Case of Portugal," GEE Papers 0071, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jun 2017.
    10. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    12. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    13. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal," GEE Papers 0075, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    15. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 4299, IZA Network @ LISER.
    16. Carlos Lenz & Marcel R. Savioz, 2009. "Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2009-16, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 626, Bank of England.
    18. Fabio Canova & Joaquim Pires Pina, 1998. "Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models," Economics Working Papers 420, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
    19. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    20. Alfredo M. Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho, 2006. "Public Investment and Budgetary Consolidation in Portugal," Working Papers 41, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    21. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    22. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2010. "The US inflation-unemployment trade-off revisited: New evidence for policy-making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 758-777, November.
    23. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    24. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the economic and budgetary effects of investments in SCUTS: the Portuguese toll-free highways," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 321-338, February.
    25. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2025. "Functional reciprocity of the macroeconomic variables," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 40-62, April.
    26. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Economic causation nexus and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    28. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    29. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Testing The Opportunistic Approach To Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 110-125, March.
    30. Bredin, Don & Gavin, Caroline & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2003. "International Policy Rate Changes and Dublin Interbank Offer Rates," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/03, Central Bank of Ireland.
    31. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    32. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    33. Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    34. Monticini, Andrea & Peel, David & Vaciago, Giacomo, 2011. "The impact of ECB and FED announcements on the Euro interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 139-142.
    35. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    36. Fusari, Francesco, 2025. "Identifying monetary policy shocks through external constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    37. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Carl E. Walsh, 2002. "Teaching Inflation Targeting: An Analysis for Intermediate Macro," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 333-346, December.
    39. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland.
    40. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    41. Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    43. Aswin Rivai, 2022. "The monetary policy impact on agricultural growth and food prices," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(9), pages 158-165, December.
    44. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2014. "On The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Spending In The United States," Working Papers 151, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    45. Kenneth Kuttner & Patricia Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the United States: some answers and further questions," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 433-443, Bank for International Settlements.
    46. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 2002. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 134, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    47. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Levin, Andrew & Gürkaynak, Refet & Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    49. Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2014. "The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans," SAFE Working Paper Series 76, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    50. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2009. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 206-215, April.
    51. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    52. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
    53. Were, Maureen & Nyamongo, Esman & Kamau, Anne W. & Sichei, Moses M. & Wambua, Joseph, 2014. "Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kenya: Evidence from a macroeconomic model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 193-201.
    54. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    55. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    56. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    57. José Ignacio Castillo Manzano & Fernando González Laxe & Lourdes López Valpuesta, 2006. "Una Introducción al Análisis del Tráfico de Contenedores mediante los Vectores Autoregresivos," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 5, pages 1-23, January.
    58. Azzouzi, asmae & Bousselhamia, Ahmed, 2019. "Impact Des Variations Du Taux De Change Reel Sur L'Economie Marocaine : Une Approche Svar A Des Restrictions De Signes [Impact Of Real Exchange Rate Variations On The Moroccan Economy: A Svar Approach To Sign Restrictions]," MPRA Paper 110397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2014. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2016. "The role of bank balance sheets in monetary policy transmission. Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 245, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    61. Santiago Camara & Lawrence Christiano & Husnu Dalgic, 2024. "The International Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 65-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    63. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2015. "Exchange rates and monetary policy," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    64. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    65. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2016. "Source of Underestimation of the Monetary Policy Effect: Re-Examination of the Policy Effectiveness in Japan's 1990s," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(6), pages 795-810, December.
    66. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    67. Maria Chiara Cucciniello & Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "The cost channel of monetary policy: the case of the United States in the period 1959-2018," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0262, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    68. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2020. "A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), pages 801-837, May.
    69. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    70. Florian Huber & Manfred M. Fischer, 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp201, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    71. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
    73. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 891-910, June.
    74. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249-265.
    75. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    76. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    77. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    78. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," Working Papers 647, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    79. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui Manuel Marvão Pereira, 2009. "Is Fuel-Switching a No-Regrets Environmental Policy? VAR Evidence on Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Performance in Portugal," Working Papers 87, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    80. van Zandweghe, Willem & Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? The Case of Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1068, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    81. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    82. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    83. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 97-111.
    84. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2011. "Datos en tiempo real:una aplicación a la regla de taylor en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 373-394, January-J.
    85. Alfredo M. Pereira & Oriol Roca Sagales, 2006. "Public Infrastructures and Regional Asymmetries in Spain," Working Papers 46, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 30 Mar 2007.
    86. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
    87. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    88. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    89. Uesugi, Iichiro, 2002. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect: The Case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 289-316, September.
    90. Tomoya Suzuki, 2004. "Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 145-156, June.
    91. Yao, Wei, 2025. "The US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and Commodities’ Prices," Other publications TiSEM 185d14d3-9dc2-4276-82ec-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    92. W. Douglas McMillin & Keuk-Soo Kim, 2001. "Symmetric versus Asymmetric Lag Structures in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    93. Sourav Batabyal, 2011. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime and Delinquency," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 421-441, December.
    94. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    95. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    96. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "On the Effects of Infrastructure Investments on Industrial CO2 Emissions in Portugal," GEE Papers 0081, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2017.
    97. W. Douglas McMillin, 2001. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Comparing Contemporaneous versus Long‐Run Identifying Restrictions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(3), pages 618-636, January.
    98. Gabor Pinter, 2018. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 1812, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    99. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
    100. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    101. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    102. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    103. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 12010, Banco de la Republica.
    104. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Western Hemisphere," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 19-52, December.
    105. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2001. "Forecast-based monetary policy in Sweden 1992-98: a view from within," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 204-226, Bank for International Settlements.
    106. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    107. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    108. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoît Nguyen, 2025. "Revisiting the Dynamic Impact of Asset Purchases: A Survey‐Based Identification," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 846-861, November.
    109. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    110. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    111. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003.
    112. Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    113. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Economic sensitivity nexus and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    114. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VAR's describe monetary policy?," Working Paper Series WP-98-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    115. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics.
    116. Bredin, Don & Gavin, Caroline & O Reilly, Gerard, 2004. "US Monetary Announcements and Irish Stockmarket Volatility," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    117. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    118. Luca Dedola & Francesco Lippi, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industry Data of Five OECD Countries," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1833, Econometric Society.
    119. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte & Hugo S. Gonçalves, 2016. "Do tourism spillovers matter in regional economic analysis? An application to Portugal," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 939-963, October.
    120. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "The Evolution of the U.S. Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CAMA Working Papers 2013-70, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    121. John C. Robertson, 2000. "Central bank forecasting: an international comparison," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q2), pages 21-32.
    122. Blen Solomon & Isabel Ruiz, 2006. "Does The Price Puzzle Exist in Colombia? Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT.
    123. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
    124. Jordan Brooks & Michael Katz & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Post-FOMC Announcement Drift in U.S. Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 25127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    125. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    126. Nina Boyarchenko & Valentin Haddad & Matthew Plosser, 2016. "The Federal Reserve and market confidence," Staff Reports 773, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    127. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    128. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    129. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "External demand developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
    131. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 45, Society for Computational Economics.
    132. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2016. "Identifying Priorities in Infrastructure Investment in Portugal," Working Papers 157, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    133. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    134. Stefan Schiman-Vukan & Harald Badinger, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates," WIFO Working Papers 608, WIFO.
    135. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2003. "On the Impact of Public Investment On the Performance of U.S. Industries," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(1), pages 66-90, January.
    136. Winfried Koeniger & Benedikt Lennartz & Marc-Antoine Ramelet, 2021. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," Working Papers 2021-06, Swiss National Bank.
    137. Kjellberg, David, 2006. "Measuring Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    138. Lange, Ronald H., 2010. "Regime-switching monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 782-796, September.
    139. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary policy and sectoral shocks : did the Federal Reserve react properly to the high-tech crisis?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3160, The World Bank.
    140. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    141. W. Douglas McMillin & Keuk-soo Kim, 2002. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Does Lag Structure Matter?," Departmental Working Papers 2002-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    142. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
    143. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    144. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    145. Harun Alp & Hakan Kara & Gursu Keles & Refet Gurkaynak & Musa Orak, 2010. "Turkiye�de Piyasa Gostergelerinden Para Politikasi Beklentilerinin Olculmesi," Working Papers 1011, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    146. Yamashiro, Guy & Grobar, Lisa, 2005. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Regional Employment: The Case of Southern California," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-14.
    147. Tevdovski, Dragan & Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2016. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 73461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2016.
    148. Mishra, Sagarika & Dhole, Sandip, 2014. "Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 194-204.
    149. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    150. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    151. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Financial market developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    152. Thi Bich Ngoc Tran & Hoang Cam Huong Pham, 2020. "The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, July.
    153. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho & José da Silva Costa, 2005. "On the Long-term Economic and Budgetary Effects of Public-Sector Investment," ERSA conference papers ersa05p146, European Regional Science Association.
    154. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    155. Roland Meeks, 2009. "Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Working Papers 0906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    156. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 22-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    157. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
    158. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, 2001. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    159. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    160. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2007. "Public Investment In Transportation Infrastructures And Industry Performance In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-20, June.
    161. Guidolin, Massimo & Orlov, Alexei G. & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on corporate bonds under regime shifts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 176-202.
    162. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 8554, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    163. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
    164. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    165. Batini, Nicoletta, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    166. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    167. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 728-740, January.
    168. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2011. "Economics, politics and the federal funds markets: does the Fed play politics?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(14), pages 1005-1019.
    169. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Hui Tong, 2010. "U.S. Monetary Shocks and Global Stock Prices," IMF Working Papers 2010/278, International Monetary Fund.
    170. Elder, John, 2001. "Can the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate Explain the Time-Varying Risk Premium in Treasury Bill Returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
    171. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    172. Capistrán Carlos & Chiquiar Daniel & Hernández Juan R., 2017. "Identifying Dornbusch's Exchange Rate Overshooting with Structural VECs: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-11, Banco de México.
    173. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 75-102, October.
    174. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    175. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning?," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    176. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    177. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1204, CESifo.
    178. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    179. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    180. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    181. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    182. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Business confidence developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    183. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    184. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.
    185. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    186. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 728-740.
    187. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 87, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    188. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Firms’ Expectations and Monetary Policy Shocks in the Eurozone," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 02-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    189. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    190. James S. Fackler & W. Douglas McMillin, 2002. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Options," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 794-810, April.
    191. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Héctor & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "The evolution of inflation and unemployment: Explaining the roaring nineties," Kiel Working Papers 1350, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    192. Xinsheng Lu & Ling Qu & Ying Zhou, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets: An Insight into Cash Rate Target Announcements," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 151-166, September.
    193. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    194. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    195. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    196. Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "Central Bank Behavior, the Institutional Framework, and Policy Regimes: Inflation Versus Noninflation Targeting Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 331-343, July.
    197. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    198. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl & James McNeil, 2026. "Reassessing Proxy-based Identification of Multiple Monetary Policy Shocks for the Euro Area, the US, and the UK," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2163, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    199. Döpke, Jörg, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    200. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    201. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "Real wages and aggregate demand shocks: contradictory evidence from VARs," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 389-413.
    202. Hiroshi Gunji & Kazuki Miura, 2025. "Re-examination of monetary policy using a shift-share regressor and instrumental variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 392-400.
    203. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2017. "Which Monetary Shocks Matter in Small Open Economies? Evidence from SVARs," Working Papers 2017-2, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    204. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    205. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    206. Abdullah Mamun & M. Kabir Hassan, 2014. "What explains the lack of monetary policy influence on bank holding companies?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 227-235, November.
    207. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    208. Minxian Yang, 2017. "Effects of idiosyncratic shocks on macroeconomic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1441-1461, December.
    209. Lindé, Jesper, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: Sweden 1986-2002," Working Paper Series 153, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    210. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Econom a Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    211. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment in Portugal and the Traded/Non-Traded Industry Mix," GEE Papers 0078, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2017.
    212. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    213. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
    214. Jongrim Ha, 2021. "Financial market spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1221-1274, November.
    215. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    216. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    217. Zulfiqar Ali WAGAN & Zhang CHEN & Hakimzadi SEELRO & Muhammad Sanaullah SHAH, 2018. "Assessing the effect of monetary policy on agricultural growth and food prices," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(11), pages 499-507.
    218. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    219. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    220. Brämer, Patrick & Gischer, Horst & Richter, Toni & Weiß, Mirko, 2013. "Competition in banks’ lending business and its interference with ECB monetary policy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 144-162.
    221. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
    222. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy," Memorandum 31/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    223. Bredin, Don & O’Reilly, Gerard, 2001. "An Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    224. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    225. Sergio Iván Prada & Julio C. Alonso & Juli�n Fern�ndez, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into consumer healthcare prices in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(77), pages 523-550.
    226. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    227. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2006. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Investment in Road Infrastructure in Portugal," Working Papers 33, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    228. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," IREA Working Papers 200715, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2007.
    229. Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
    230. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Market uncertainty developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    231. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    232. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    233. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    234. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2007. "An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 215-232.
    235. Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
    236. Thornton, Daniel L., 2001. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1717-1739, September.
    237. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    238. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A., 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    239. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    240. Anna Florio, 2005. "Asymmetric monetary policy: empirical evidence for Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 751-764.
    241. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society.
    242. Subagyo Ahmad & Witjaksono Armanto, 2017. "Impact of Some Overseas Monetary Variables on Indonesia: SVAR Approach," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 117-123, December.
    243. Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2002. "An information-theoretic extension to structural VAR modelling," Econometrics 0203005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    244. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    245. Hoda Selim, 2012. "Exploring the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy in Egypt," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    246. James Peery Cover & Eric Olson, 2013. "Using Romer and Romer's new measure of monetary policy shocks to identify the AD and AS shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(19), pages 2838-2846, July.
    247. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    248. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
    249. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    250. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    251. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    252. Miles, William, 2017. "The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 320-331.
    253. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    254. William B. English & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Egon Zakrajšek, 2012. "Interest rate risk and bank equity valuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    255. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 228, European Central Bank.
    256. Berument Hakan & Ceylan Nildag Basak, 2008. "US Monetary Policy Surprises and Foreign Interest Rates: Evidence from a Set of MENA Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 117-133, April.
    257. Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "The Effect of Equity Market Integration on the Transmission Monetary Policy. Evidence from Australia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    258. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
    259. Andraz, Jorge M. & Norte, Nélia M. & Gonçalves, Hugo S., 2015. "Effects of tourism on regional asymmetries: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 257-267.
    260. Victor Duarte & Carlos Carvalho & Tiago Berriel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, External Finance Dependence, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach," 2013 Meeting Papers 1214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    261. Matteo Iacoviello & Gaston Navarro, 2018. "Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1227, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    262. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    263. Syed M. Harun & M. Kabir Hassan & Tarek S. Zaher, 2005. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks Across Different Business Conditions," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 9(1-2), pages 99-128, March-Jun.
    264. Wickens, Michael R. & Polito, Vito, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy using a VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 6957, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    265. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Why Virtuous Supply-Side Effects and Irrelevant Keynesian Effects are not Foregone Conclusions: What we Learn from an Industry-Level Analysis of Infrastructure Investments in Portugal," GEE Papers 0076, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    266. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    267. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    268. Per Jansson & Anders Vredin, 2003. "Forecast‐Based Monetary Policy: The Case of Sweden," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 349-380, November.
    269. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    270. Alfredo M. Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho, 2006. "Public Investment, Economic Performance and Budgetary Consolidation: VAR Evidence for the 12 Euro Countries," Working Papers 40, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    271. Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    272. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2009-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    273. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    274. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Geopolitical risk developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    275. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Maria de Fatima Pinho, 2011. "Public Investment, Economic Performance And Budgetary Consolidation: Var Evidence For The First 12 Euro Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 1-20, March.
    276. Olivier Habimana, 2019. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of the Liquidity Effect and Monetary Neutrality," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 85-110, January.
    277. Ippei Fujiwara, 2003. "Has the effect of monetary policy changedduring 1990s?: An Application of Identified Markov Switching Vector Autoregression to the Impulse Response Analysis When the Nominal Interest Rate is Almost Zero," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 03-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    278. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2019. "How Does Infrastructure Investment Affect Macroeconomic Performance? Evidence from Portugal," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 11(1-2), pages 14-40, June.
    279. Nandnaba, Sarah & Hailemariam, Abebe & Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin, 2025. "Oil consumption and growth: Is there a threshold effect of greenhouse gases emissions," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    280. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    281. Liu, Lin & Hussain, Syed, 2013. "Understanding the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach in A Finite Sample," MPRA Paper 53118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    282. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2010. "The difficult art of eliciting long-run inflation expectations from government bond prices," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar.
    283. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    284. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    285. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2009. "Social Security And Economic Performance In Portugal: After All That Has Been Said And Done How Much Has Actually Changed?," Working Papers 81, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    286. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the regional incidence of highway investments in the USA," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 819-838, June.
    287. Kwo Ping Tam, 2016. "A New Comparative Study On The Free-Floating And Currency Board Regimes In Hong Kong," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 218-238, April.
    288. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    289. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Greek Banking Sector Stock Reaction to ECB’s Monetary Policy Interventions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    290. Armin Seibert & Andrei Sirchenko & Gernot Muller, 2018. "A Model for Policy Interest Rates," HSE Working papers WP BRP 192/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    291. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Reconciling narrative monetary policy disturbances with structural VAR model shocks?," Discussion Papers 23/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    292. John H. Huston & Roger W. Spencer, 2009. "Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    293. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    294. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    295. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2025. "Foreign direct investment developments and the minerals industry," MPRA Paper 124274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    296. Bank for International Settlements, 2002. "Market functioning and central bank policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 12.
    297. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    298. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hofmann, Boris, 2003. "FCIs and economic activity: Some international evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 14-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    299. Xiong, Weibo, 2012. "Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 512-533.
    300. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2014. "On The Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Security Spending:Evidence For 12 Eu Countries," Working Papers 150, Economics Department, William & Mary.
    301. Khwazi Magubane & Jacques de Jongh & Precious Mncayi-Makhanya & Jabulile Makhalima & Phindile Maziya & Boingotlo Wesi, 2024. "Does financial stability spur or retard output and price stability in South Africa?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(9), pages 138-156, December.
    302. Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    303. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    304. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2019. "Health care investments and economic performance in Portugal: an industry level analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(6), pages 1174-1200, October.
    305. Masahiko Shibamoto & Wataru Takahashi & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2020. "Japan's Monetary Policy: A Literature Review and Empirical Assessment," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-15, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Mar 2021.
    306. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Bayesian Framework for the Expectations Hypothesis. How to Extract Additional Information from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 591, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    307. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Gimme a Break! Identification and Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n31, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    308. Dobromł Serwa, 2006. "Do emerging financial markets react to monetary policy announcements? Evidence from Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 513-523.
    309. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    310. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Maria De Fatima Pinho, 2006. "Impact of Public Investment Upon Economic Performance and Budgetary Consolidation Efforts in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa06p122, European Regional Science Association.
    311. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Identification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 23968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    312. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2008. "On the Regional Incidence of Public Investment in Highways in the USA," Working Papers 70, Economics Department, William & Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    313. Montiel Olea, José L. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2021. "Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions identified with an external instrument," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 74-87.
    314. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2008. "Monetary Policy Effects: New Evidence from the Italian Flow of Funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 678, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    315. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
    316. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    317. Li, Shengfeng & Hoque, Hafiz & Thijssen, Jacco, 2021. "Firm financial behaviour dynamics and interactions: A structural vector autoregression approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    318. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  82. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Interest rates and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun13.

    Cited by:

    1. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
    2. M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia, 2011. "Equilibrium Selection in a Cashless Economy with Transaction Frictions in the Bond Market," Working Papers wp769, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

  83. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  84. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is opportunistic monetary policy credible?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct4.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "How should monetary policy respond to shocks while maintaining long-run price stability? Conceptual issues (commentary)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 209-227.

  85. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  86. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-298, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  87. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2003. "ML vs GMM Estimates of Hybrid Macroeconomic Models (With an Application to the New Phillips Curve)," Working papers 103, Banque de France.
    2. Jan, Yin-Ching & Chou, Peter Shyan-Rong & Hung, Mao-Wei, 2000. "Pacific Basin stock markets and international capital asset pricing," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 1-16.
    3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. John Bailey Jones & Duc T. Le, 2002. "Optimal Investment with Lumpy Costs," Discussion Papers 02-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bertero, Elisabetta & Rondi, Laura, 2002. "Does a Switch of Budget Regimes Affect Investment and Managerial Discretion of State-Owned Enterprises? Evidence from Italian Firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 836-863, December.
    7. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
    9. Li, Hong, 2008. "Estimation and testing of Euler equation models with time-varying reduced-form coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 425-448, January.
    10. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
    11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    13. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Charles A. Fleischman, 1997. "The GMM parameter normalization puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Hobdari, Bersant & Jones, Derek C. & Mygind, Niels, 2009. "Capital investment and determinants of financial constraints in Estonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 344-359, December.
    16. West,K.D. & Wong,K.-F. & Anatolyev,S., 2001. "Instrumental variables estimation of heteroskedastic linear models using all lags of instruments," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    17. Andersson, Fredrik N.G., 2018. "Estimates of the Inflation Effect of a Global Carbon Price on Consumer, Investment, Export, and Import Prices," Working Papers 2018:22, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    18. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are \"deep\" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Bozhechkova, Alexandera V. (Божечкова, Александра В.) & Polbin, Andrey V. (Полбин, Андрей В.), 2018. "Evidence for the Interest Rate Channel in the IS Curve for the Russian Economy [Тестирование Наличия Процентного Канала В Кривой Is Для Российской Экономики]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 70-91, February.
    21. Elisabetta Bertero & Laura Rondi, 2002. "Does a Switch of Budget Regimes Constrain Managerial Discretion?: Evidence for Italian Public Enterprises' Investment," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Lubomir Lizal, 2001. "Does a Soft Macroeconomic Environment Induce Restructuring on the Microeconomic Level during the Transition Period? Evidence from Investment Behavior of Czech Enterprises," Development and Comp Systems 0012010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ola Melander & Maria Sandström & Erik Schedvin, 2017. "The effect of cash flow on investment: an empirical test of the balance sheet theory," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 695-716, September.
    24. Öner Güncavdi & Michael Bleaney & Andrew McKay, 2006. "Financial determinants of private investment in Turkey. An Euler Equation Approach to Time Series," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 2(2), pages 83-106, Enero-Jun.
    25. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
    26. Anna Bottasso, 1996. "Firms’ Financial Structure And Real Decisions: A Critical Survey Of The Empirical Literature," CERIS Working Paper 199623, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    27. Kenneth Kasa, 1999. "Model uncertainty, robust policies, and the value of commitment," Working Paper Series 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    28. Robert Carpenter & Laura Rondi, 2000. "Italian Corporate Governance, Investment, and Finance," CERIS Working Paper 200014, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    29. Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4114, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Daniel G. Swaine, 2001. "Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \"deep\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 01-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    31. Jason G. Cummins & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "The Tax Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 4703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  88. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 300-309, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    2. Valérie Oheix & Dorothée Rivaud-Danset, 2009. "Why do firms borrow on a short-term basis ? Evidence from European countries," Working Papers hal-04140880, HAL.
    3. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kamberoglou, Nicos C. & Simigiannis, George T., 2001. "Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Greece? Evidence from bank level data," Working Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    4. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2007. "The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms: An Implication from Japan's Banking Crisis," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 3(1), pages 27-50, December.
    5. Obregon, Carlos, 2020. "Beyond Quantitative Easing (Towards a New Monetary Theory)," MPRA Paper 122449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dewally, Michaël & Shao, Yingying, 2014. "Liquidity crisis, relationship lending and corporate finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 223-239.
    7. John V. Duca, 2011. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression-style money market meltdown?," Working Papers 1101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    9. Li, Weiping & Xie, Chenyuan & Liu, Cai, 2024. "The power of the many: how retail investor attention reshapes corporate trade credit and bank loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    10. Cihan Yalcin & Spiros Bougheas & Paul Mizen, 2004. "The Impact of Firm-Specific Characteristics on the Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    11. Tomoya Suzuki, 2004. "Credit channel of monetary policy in Japan: resolving the supply versus demand puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2385-2396.
    12. Mr. Guido De Blasio, 2003. "Does Trade Credit Substitute Bank Credit? Evidence From Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2003/166, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Beck, Günter Wilfried & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2016. "Lost in translation? ECB's monetary impulses and financial intermediaries' responses," SAFE White Paper Series 36, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Attiya Y. Javid & Robina Iqbal, 2010. "Corporate Governance in Pakistan : Corporate Valuation, Ownership and Financing," Governance Working Papers 22830, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2000. "The credit channel of monetary policy and housing markets: International empirical evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2000, Bank of Finland.
    16. John V. Duca, 2014. "What drives the shadow banking system in the short and long run?," Working Papers 1401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Altunok, Fatih & Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas, 2015. "The trade credit channel and monetary policy transmission: empirical evidence from U.S. panel data," MPRA Paper 66273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Zaheer, S. & Ongena, S. & van Wijnbergen, S.J.G., 2011. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy through Conventional and Islamic Banks," Other publications TiSEM 04059a01-0b26-404c-838c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Coussin, Maximilien, 2025. "The multifaceted effect of monetary policy on U.S. credit aggregates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Degryse, Hans & Matthews, Kent & Zhao, Tianshu, 2015. "SMEs and access to bank credit: Evidence on the regional propagation of the financial crisis in the UK," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    21. Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, Hong, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and investment of non-listed real sector firms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 631-642.
    22. Herrera, Ana Maria & Kolar, Marek & Minetti, Raoul, 2011. "Credit reallocation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 551-563.
    23. Lamont K. Black & Richard J. Rosen, 2007. "How the credit channel works: differentiating the bank lending channel and the balance sheet channel," Working Paper Series WP-07-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Hacievliyagil Nuri & Eksi Ibrahim Halil, 2019. "A Micro Based Study on Bank Credit and Economic Growth: Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Analysis," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, June.
    25. Shabbir, Safia, 2012. "Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth under Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 41496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Haan, Leo de & Sterken, Elmer, 2002. "Corporate governance, relationship lending and monetary lending monetary policy: firm-level evidence for the Euro area," CCSO Working Papers 200212, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    27. Maria Cristina Arcuri & Raoul Pisani, 2021. "Is Trade Credit a Sustainable Resource for Medium-Sized Italian Green Companies?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    28. Syed Ozair Ali, 2011. ": Power, Profits and Inflation: A Study of Inflation and Influence in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 11-41.
    29. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," Working Paper Series 1460, European Central Bank.
    30. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010. "A Micro Data Approach to the Identification of Credit Crunches," CESifo Working Paper Series 3159, CESifo.
    31. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    32. Shabbir, Safia, 2012. "Monetary Transmission in Pakistan: The Balance Sheet Channel," MPRA Paper 37862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    34. Halil D. Kaya, 2021. "The Impact Of Business Conditions On Retailers And Wholesalers: Does Leverage Matter?," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 72-83, August.
    35. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    36. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2002. "Further VAR evidence for the effectiveness of a credit channel in Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,66, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    37. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit Supply: Identifying Balance-Sheet Channels with Loan Applications and Granted Loans," CEPR Discussion Papers 7655, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    38. Guender, Alfred V, 2018. "Credit prices vs. credit quantities as predictors of economic activity in Europe: Which tell a better story?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 380-399.
    39. Anna Malinowska, 2016. "The impact of monetary policy and agent heterogeneity on firm financing structure: evidence from the USA," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 46.
    40. Rosen Azad Chowdhury & Dilshad Jahan & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi, 2024. "Monetary policy shock and impact asymmetry in bank lending channel: Evidence from the UK housing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 511-530, January.
    41. Thomas Grjebine & Urzula Szczerbowicz & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Corporate Debt Structure and Economic Recoveries," Working papers 646, Banque de France.
    42. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    43. Michaelides, Alexander & Mankart, Jochen & Pagratis, Spyros, 2014. "A Dynamic Model of Banking with Uninsurable Risks and Regulatory Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 10299, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    44. Kakes, Jan & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Philipp Maier, 1999. "Monetary transmission and bank lending in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 199906, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    45. Spiros Bougheas & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2004. "Access to External Finance : Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Firm-Specific Characteristics," Working Papers 0406, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    46. Alfred V. Guender, 1998. "Is There a Bank‐Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in New Zealand?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(226), pages 243-265, September.
    47. Satoru Kanoh & Chakkrit Pumpaisanchai, 2006. "Listening to the Market: Estimating Credit Demand and Supply from Survey Data," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-137, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    48. Huang, Zhangkai, 2003. "Evidence of a bank lending channel in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 491-510, March.
    49. Mike Burkart & Tore Ellingsen, 2004. "In-Kind Finance: A Theory of Trade Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 569-590, June.
    50. Safia Shabbir, 2013. "Implications of Monetary Policy for Corporate Sector and Economic Growth in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 61, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    51. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    52. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2003. "Changes in Financial Structure and Asset Price Substitutability: A Test of the Bank Lending Channel," Working Papers 05, Bank of Greece.
    53. Spiros Bougheas & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2007. "An Open Economy Model of the Credit Channel Applied to Four Asian Economies," Working Papers 082007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    54. Schmukler, Sergio & Cortina Lorente, Juan & Didier, Tatiana, 2018. "Corporate Borrowing and Debt Maturity: The Effects of Market Access and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 13008, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    55. Díaz, Roger Aliaga & Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "On the firm-level implications of the Bank Lending Channel of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2038-2055, October.
    56. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2008/169, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2007. "The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms : An Implication from Japan’s Banking Crisis," Finance Working Papers 22596, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    58. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Thürwächter, Claire, 2021. "Heterogeneity in corporate debt structures and the transmission of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    59. Kuppers, Markus, 2001. "Curtailing the black box: German banking groups in the transmission of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1907-1930, December.
    60. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Liu, Jia & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2017. "Credit supply constraints and financial policies of listed companies during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 559-571.
    61. Spaliara, Marina-Eliza, 2009. "Do financial factors affect the capital-labour ratio? Evidence from UK firm-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1932-1947, October.
    62. Luo, Xiaoke & Xiao, Yongping, 2025. "Digital trade rules and division of labour in global value chains," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    63. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," Working Papers 0601, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    64. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    65. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    66. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2005. "Corporate Finance Under Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 112005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    67. Nan‐Kuang Chen & Hung‐Jen Wang, 2008. "Identifying the Demand and Supply Effects of Financial Crises on Bank Credit—Evidence from Taiwan," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 26-49, July.
    68. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
    69. Bougheas, Spiros & Mizen, Paul & Yalcin, Cihan, 2006. "Access to external finance: Theory and evidence on the impact of monetary policy and firm-specific characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 199-227, January.
    70. Ratti, Ronald A. & Lee, Sunglyong & Seol, Youn, 2008. "Bank concentration and financial constraints on firm-level investment in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2684-2694, December.
    71. Jørn Inge Halvorsen & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "Are bank lending shocks important for economic fluctuations?," Working Paper 2009/27, Norges Bank.
    72. Mankart, Jochen & Michaelides, Alexander & Pagratis, Spyros, 2018. "Bank capital buffers in a dynamic model," Discussion Papers 51/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    73. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    74. Ono, Masanori, 2009. "Trading companies as financial intermediaries in Japan," MPRA Paper 17331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Burkart, Mike & Ellingsen, Tore, 2002. "In-kind finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24940, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    76. Bhat Ramesh, 2004. "Substitution of trade credit for bank credit: empirical study of financing behaviour of Indian," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-05-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    77. Duca, John V., 2016. "How capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short-term business credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 10-24.
    78. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels in Europe: a cross-country investigation," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(210), pages 295-326.
    79. Tiantian Yang & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2015. "How Did Young Firms Fare During the Great Recession? Evidence from the Kauffman Firm Survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    80. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Michalis‐Panayiotis Papafilis, 2025. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission in the US: Is It a Bank Lending Channel, a Balance Sheet Channel or Both or Neither?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 3521-3534, October.
    81. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo.
    82. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2000. "Identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    83. Kudlyak, Marianna & Sánchez, Juan M., 2017. "Revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 48-69.
    84. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    85. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    86. Oscar Landerretche, 2007. "Job flows in chile," Working Papers wp240, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    87. Hicham Bennouna & Tomasz Chmielewski & Mohamed Doukali, 2019. "Transmission de la politique monétaire vers l’endettement des entreprises non financières au Maroc," Document de travail 2019-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    88. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 1999. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: a model of the credit channel," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 129, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    89. Bennouna, Hicham & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Doukali, Mohamed, 2019. "Monetary policy transmission in Morocco: Evidence from borrowers-level data," MPRA Paper 97086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    90. Miguel Cantillo and Julian Wright., 2000. "How Do Firms Choose Their Lenders? An Empirical Investigation," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-256-Rev, University of California at Berkeley.
    91. Guido De Blasio, 2004. "Does trade credit substitute for bank credit?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 498, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    92. Sajjad Barkhordari & Mohsen Forughi Far, 2020. "The Dynamic Regional Effects of Monetary Policy on Employment in Iran (TVP-FAVAR Approach)," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 6(4), pages 109-136.
    93. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    94. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    95. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2008. "Bank lending, financing constraints and SME investment," Working Paper Series WP-08-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    96. Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2021. "Measuring credit crunch in Italy: evidence from a survey-based indicator," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 567-592, April.
    97. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2018. "An Indicator of Credit Crunch using Italian Business Surveys," MPRA Paper 88839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    98. Hovakimian, Gayané, 2011. "Financial constraints and investment efficiency: Internal capital allocation across the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 264-283, April.
    99. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Reserve requirements and the bank lending channel in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-50.
    100. Watanabe, Wako, 2010. "Does a large loss of bank capital cause Evergreening? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 116-136, March.
    101. Emanuel Barnea & Nadine Baudot-Trajtenberg & Ziv Naor, 2015. "Financial intermediation and the transmission mechanism: learning from a case study on Israeli banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 193-214, Bank for International Settlements.
    102. Xiaoqiong Diao, 2020. "Do the Capital Requirements Affect the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy from the Credit Channel?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-6.
    103. Raquel Lago Gonzalez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "Determinants of access to external finance: evidence from Spanish firms," Working Paper Series 2007-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    104. Milne, Alistair & Wood, Geoffrey, 2009. "The bank lending channel reconsidered," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2009, Bank of Finland.
    105. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Park, Haerang, 2025. "Asymmetric international risk sharing and the business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    106. Wako Watanabe, 2004. "Does a Large Loss of Bank Capital Cause Ever-greening or Flight to Quality?: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0618, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    107. Adeola Y. Oyebowale, 2020. "Determinants of Bank Lending in Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(3), pages 378-398, September.
    108. Herman, Uroš & Lozej, Matija, 2021. "Cross-border bank funding and lending in a monetary union: Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    109. Hester,D.D., 2003. "U.S. monetary policy in the Greenspan era: 1987-2003," Working papers 23, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    110. Gross, Christian & Jarmuzek, Mariusz & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2021. "Macro-stress testing dividend income. Evidence from euro area banks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    111. Bauer, Michael D. & Offner, Eric A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2025. "Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    112. Guariglia, Alessandra & Mateut, Simona, 2006. "Credit channel, trade credit channel, and inventory investment: Evidence from a panel of UK firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2835-2856, October.
    113. Holmberg, Karolina, 2013. "Firm-Level Evidence of Shifts in the Supply of Credit," Working Paper Series 280, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    114. Hendricks, Torben W. & Kempa, Bernd, 2009. "The credit channel in U.S. economic history," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-68.
    115. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Ormrod, Phillip, 2013. "The impact of recent financial shocks on the financing and investment policies of UK private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 59-70.
    116. Kakes, Jan & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2002. "Monetary policy and bank lending:: Evidence from German banking groups," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2077-2092, November.
    117. Spiros Bougheas & Hosung Lim & Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2012. "Lessons from the Asian Crisis: An Open Economy Credit Channel Model where Export Status Matters," Discussion Papers 12/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    118. Junxiu Sun & Feng Wang & Haitao Yin & Rui Zhao, 2022. "Death or rebirth? How small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises respond to responsible investment," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1749-1762, May.
    119. Luis Carranza & José Enrique Galdón Sánchez & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2006. "Understanding the Relationship between Financial Development and Monetary Policy," Faculty Working Papers 14/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    120. Santiago Carbó Valverde & Rafael López del Paso, 2005. "Do non-financial firms react to monetary policy actions as banks do?," ThE Papers 05/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    121. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 19-5, Bank of Canada.
    122. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "What Do a Million Banks Have to Say About the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 6056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    123. Kupiec, Paul & Lee, Yan & Rosenfeld, Claire, 2017. "Does bank supervision impact bank loan growth?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 29-48.
    124. Kakes, Jan, 1998. "Monetary transmission and bank lending in the Netherlands," Research Report 98C30, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    125. Stöß, Elmar, 1996. "Die Finanzierungsstruktur der Unternehmen und deren Reaktion auf montäre Impulse: Eine Analyse anhand der Unternehmensbilanzstatistik der Deutschen Bundesbank," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  89. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  90. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve policy and the predictability of interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun23.

    Cited by:

    1. Michel Boutillier & Michel Guillard & Auguste Mpacko-Priso, 2000. "Règles monétaires et prévisions d’inflation en économie ouverte," Documents de recherche 00-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Jean-Paul Renne, 2012. "A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates," Working papers 395, Banque de France.
    3. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Working papers 999, Banque de France.
    4. Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2020. "The Power of the Federal Reserve Chair," CEPR Discussion Papers 14878, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 977, European Central Bank.
    6. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "A case for interest rate smoothing," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2007, Bank of Finland.
    7. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    8. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using asymmetric dynamics in yield spreads," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    10. Anna Sznajderska, 2016. "Wpływ sposobu zarządzania płynnością, premii za ryzyko i oczekiwań na stopy rynku międzybankowego w Polsce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(1), pages 61-90.
    11. Vollmer Uwe, 2004. "Wer entscheidet über Leitzinssatzänderungen?: Zur optimalen Verfassung des Zentralbankrats in einer Währungsunion," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 55(1), pages 287-312, January.

  91. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  92. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-20.

    Cited by:

    1. Ghosh, Saibal, 2006. "Monetary policy and bank behavior: Empirical evidence from India," MPRA Paper 17395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kamberoglou, Nicos C. & Simigiannis, George T., 2001. "Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Greece? Evidence from bank level data," Working Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    3. Oliver Hülsewig & Eric Mayer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Transmission in Germany: An Assessment Based on Matching Impulse Responses," ifo Working Paper Series No.14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2010/083, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    6. Marion Kohler & Erik Britton & Tony Yates, 2000. "Trade credit and the monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 115, Bank of England.
    7. Kannan, Prakash, 2012. "Credit conditions and recoveries from financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 930-947.
    8. Giuseppe Marotta, 1997. "Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1619-1629.
    9. Ursel Baumann & Glenn Hoggarth & Darren Pain, 2005. "The substitution of bank for non-bank corporate finance: evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 274, Bank of England.
    10. Gupta, Abhay, 2004. "Comparing Bank Lending Channel in India and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 9281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Uluc Aysun, 2016. "The credit channel is alive at the zero lower bound but how does it operate? Firm level evidence on the asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy," Working Papers 2016-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    12. Erdinç, Didar, 2013. "Monetary Transmission and Bank Lending Channel under the Currency Board: The Case of Bulgaria, 1999-2010," MPRA Paper 111539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun, 2012. "Global Banking and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Transmission," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 141-175, September.
    14. James P. Gander, 2010. "Firm Debt Structure and Firm Size: A Micro Approach," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2010_05, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    15. Yu Hsing, 2013. "Test of the Bank Lending Channel: The Case of Australia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2575-2582.
    16. Davide Furceri, 2002. "Risk-sharing e architettura istituzionale delle politiche di stabilizzazione nell'UME: aspetti metodologici e verifica empirica," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 175-210, November-.
    17. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Matthaios D. Delis, 2007. "Identification of a Loan Supply Function: A Cross-Country Test for the Existence of a Bank Lending Channel," Working Papers 54, Bank of Greece.
    18. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "The Relative Importance of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Malaysia," CAMA Working Papers 2006-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Aysun, Uluc & Jeon, Kiyoung & Kabukcuoglu, Zeynep, 2018. "Is the credit channel alive? Firm-level evidence on the sensitivity of borrowing spreads to monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 305-319.
    20. Yu Hsing, 2014. "Test of the bank lending channel: the case of US consumer loans," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 466-469, May.
    21. Fabio Bagliano & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2004. "The cyclical behaviour of inventories: European cross-country evidence from the early 1990s recession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2031-2044.
    22. Prao Yao Séraphin & Anzara Xavier Fabrice Méa, 2024. "Bank Credit Channel of Monetary Policy in the UEMOA Zone: A TVP-VAR Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-73, January.
    23. Owolabi A. Usman & Adegbite Tajudeen Adejare, 2014. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Industrial Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 18-31, January.
    24. Alfred V. Guender, 1998. "Is There a Bank‐Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in New Zealand?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(226), pages 243-265, September.
    25. Madhurima Koley & Kumarjit Mandal, 2025. "Regional Impact of Monetary Policy in India: A State-level Analysis," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 14(2), pages 222-242, December.
    26. Michael S. Gibson, 1997. "The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission: evidence from a model of bank behavior that incorporates long-term customer relationships," International Finance Discussion Papers 584, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Huang, Zhangkai, 2003. "Evidence of a bank lending channel in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 491-510, March.
    28. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2003. "Changes in Financial Structure and Asset Price Substitutability: A Test of the Bank Lending Channel," Working Papers 05, Bank of Greece.
    29. Schmukler, Sergio & Cortina Lorente, Juan & Didier, Tatiana, 2018. "Corporate Borrowing and Debt Maturity: The Effects of Market Access and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 13008, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. SylvieCieply & Bernard Paranque & ., 1997. "French manufacturing firms and the capital gap since1985 - a credit rationing approach," Finance 9708002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2000.
    32. Díaz, Roger Aliaga & Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "On the firm-level implications of the Bank Lending Channel of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2038-2055, October.
    33. Mark M. Spiegel, 2025. "The Bank Lending Channel Is Back," Working Paper Series 2025-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2010. "Money, reserves, and the transmission of monetary policy: does the money multiplier exist?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Yosha, Oved & Ber, Hedva & Blass, Asher, 2002. "Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: The Differential Impact on Exporting and Non-Exporting Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 3191, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    36. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Liu, Jia & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2017. "Credit supply constraints and financial policies of listed companies during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 559-571.
    37. Juan J. de Lucio & Mario Izquierdo, "undated". "Local responses to a global monetary policy: The regional structure of financial systems," Working Papers 99-14, FEDEA.
    38. Eleni Angelopoulou & Hiona Balfoussia & Heather D. Gibson, 2012. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?," Working Papers 147, Bank of Greece.
    39. Hülsewig Oliver & Winker Peter & Worms Andreas, 2004. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: A VECM Analysis for Germany / Bankkredite und geldpolitische Transmission: Eine VECM Analyse für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(5), pages 511-529, October.
    40. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
    41. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1998. "Monetary policy and the U.S. and regions: some implications for European Monetary Union," Working Papers 98-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    42. Svensson, Emma, 2012. "Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in Sweden," Working Papers 2012:9, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Mar 2013.
    43. Hedva Ber & Asher Blass & Oved Yosha, 2001. "Monetary Transmission in an Open Economy: The Differential Impact on Exporting and Non-Exporting Firms," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2001.01, Bank of Israel.
    44. Joof, Foday, 2021. "The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries," MPRA Paper 110193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Bhat Ramesh, 2004. "Substitution of trade credit for bank credit: empirical study of financing behaviour of Indian," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-05-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    46. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.
    47. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    48. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    49. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 1999. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: a model of the credit channel," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 129, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    50. Boamah, Daniel O. & Jackman, Mahalia N. & Mamingi, Nlandu, 2011. "Bahamas and Barbados: empirical evidence of interest rate pass-through," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    51. Leandro Medina, 2012. "Spring Forward or Fall Back? The Post-Crisis Recovery of Firms," IMF Working Papers 2012/292, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Junghwan Hyun & Raoul Minetti, 2019. "Credit Reallocation, Deleveraging, and Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1889-1921, October.
    53. Pamphile MEZUI-MBENG, 2012. "Cycle Du Credit Et Cycle Des Affaires Dans Les Pays De La Cemac," Cahiers du CEREFIGE 1202, CEREFIGE (Centre Europeen de Recherche en Economie Financiere et Gestion des Entreprises), Universite de Lorraine, revised 2012.
    54. Juliusz Jablecki, 2009. "The impact of Basel I capital requirements on bank behavior and the efficacy of monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 2(1), pages 16-35, June.
    55. Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via the Banks' Balance Sheet - Does Bank Size Matter?," Working Papers 202109, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    56. Raquel Lago Gonzalez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "Determinants of access to external finance: evidence from Spanish firms," Working Paper Series 2007-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    57. Nagano, Mamoru, 2010. "The Effect of Easing Monetary Policy in Regional Lending Markets in Japan," MPRA Paper 25335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    58. Bank for International Settlements, 1999. "Capital requirements and bank behaviour: the impact of the Basel Accord," BCBS Working Papers 01, Bank for International Settlements.
    59. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    60. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2007. "Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities," Working Papers 0702, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2007.
    61. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2015. "The International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Trade Data," Working Papers 082015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    62. Hung-ju Chen & Hsiao-tang Hsu, 2005. "The Role Of Firm Size In Controlling Output Decline During The Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 103-129, December.
    63. Yu HSING, 2014. "Test of the bank lending channel: The case of Hungary," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(590)), pages 115-120, January.
    64. Misa Tanaka, 2002. "How Do Bank Capital and Capital Adequacy Regulation Affect the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?," CESifo Working Paper Series 799, CESifo.
    65. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Ormrod, Phillip, 2013. "The impact of recent financial shocks on the financing and investment policies of UK private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 59-70.
    66. Charles X. Hu, 1999. "Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-39.
    67. Santiago Carbó Valverde & Rafael López del Paso, 2005. "Do non-financial firms react to monetary policy actions as banks do?," ThE Papers 05/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    68. Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002. "Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May.
    69. Nicholas Apergis & Effrosyni Alevizopoulou, 2012. "The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from European Banks," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, February.
    70. Kandrac, John, 2012. "Monetary policy and bank lending to small firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 741-748.
    71. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2009. "Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0906, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    72. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The transmission channels between the financial and real sectors: a critical survey of the literature," BCBS Working Papers 18, Bank for International Settlements.

  93. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "What are the lags in monetary policy?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb3.

    Cited by:

    1. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    4. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis," MPRA Paper 117373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(17), pages 1-07, June.
    6. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 11105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1997. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9702, Reserve Bank of Australia.

  94. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-272, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  95. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-680, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  96. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  97. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Sources of the Financing Hierarchy for Business Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 643-654, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Behr Andreas & Bellgardt Egon, 2000. "Investitionsverhalten und Liquiditätsrestringiertheit. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse / Investment Behaviour and Liquidity Constraints. A Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(3), pages 257-283, June.
    2. Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2022. "Firm‐level investment under imperfect capital markets in Ukraine," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 227-255, February.
    3. Christina V. Atanasova & Nicholas Wilson, 2003. "Bank borrowing constraints and the demand for trade credit: evidence from panel data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6-7), pages 503-514.
    4. Amal Jose & Saumitra Bhaduri, 2025. "What’s in the Text?—A Text-Based Financial Constraint Index for Indian Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 23(1), pages 285-314, March.
    5. Ding, Sai & Guariglia, Alessandra & Knight, John, 2010. "Negative investment in China: financing constraints and restructuring versus growth," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-108, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Saira Qasim, 2021. "Financial Constraints across Pakistani Listed Firms," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 57-69, April.
    7. Alex Coad, 2007. "Neoclassical vs Evolutionary Theories of Financial Constraints : Critique and Prospectus," Post-Print halshs-00144415, HAL.
    8. Lee, Chin-Chong & Ng, Sin-Huei & Khong, Roy W.L., 2024. "Subscription price discounts of stock warrants and cost of potential ownership dilution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    9. Vijayakumaran, Ratnam, 2021. "Impact of managerial ownership on investment and liquidity constraints: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Jaewoon Koo & Sunwoo Shin, 2004. "Financial Liberalization and Corporate Investments: Evidence from Korean Firm Data," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 277-292, September.
    11. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    13. Mauricio Bascuñán & René Garcia & Michel Poitevin, 1995. "Information asymétrique, contraintes de liquidité et investissement," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 398-420.
    14. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    15. Gurmeet Singh Bhabra & Parvinder Kaur & Ahn Seoungpil, 2018. "Corporate governance and the sensitivity of investments to cash flows," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(2), pages 367-396, June.
    16. Robert S. Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "On the German Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Interest Rate and Credit Channels for Investment Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series 838, CESifo.
    17. Gaurav Gupta & Jitendra Mahakud & Vivek Verma, 2020. "CEO's education and investment–cash flow sensitivity: an empirical investigation," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(4), pages 589-618, December.
    18. Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "Financial innovation, deregulation and the "credit view" of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-49.
    19. Natasha Agarwal & Chris Milner & Alejandro Riaño, 2011. "Credit Constraints and FDI Spillovers in China," Discussion Papers 11/21, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    20. Yuting Fan & Ha Nguyen & Rong Qian, 2022. "Collateralized borrowing around the world: Insights from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2420-2437, April.
    21. Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2016. "The absorption of financial services in an Islamic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 216-236.
    22. Armen Hovakimian & Gayané Hovakimian, 2009. "Cash Flow Sensitivity of Investment," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 47-65, January.
    23. Drakos, Konstantinos & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2011. "On the determinants of credit rationing: Firm-level evidence from transition countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1773-1790.
    24. Jia Liao & Yun Zhan & Yu Yuan, 2024. "Institutional investors’ site visits and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Mitigating financing constraints or inhibiting agent conflicts?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-22, March.
    25. Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Chien-An, 2005. "Does bank relationship matter for a firm's investment and financial constraints? The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 163-184, March.
    26. Valentina Peruzzi, 2017. "Does family ownership structure affect investment-cash flow sensitivity? Evidence from Italian SMEs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(43), pages 4378-4393, September.
    27. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    28. Cinquegrana, Giuseppe & Donati, Cristiana & Sarno, Domenico, 2012. "Financial constraints and relationship lending in the growth of italian SMEs," MPRA Paper 39825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Anastasiya Shamshur, 2010. "Access to Capital and Capital Structure of the Firm," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp429, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    30. Chow, Clement Kong-Wing & Fung, Michael Ka Yiu, 2000. "Small businesses and liquidity constraints in financing business investment: Evidence from shanghai's manufacturing sector," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 363-383, July.
    31. Kallandranis, Christos & Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Credit rationing prevalence for Eurozone firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    32. Gayané Hovakimian, 2009. "Determinants of Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 161-183, March.
    33. Laeven, Luc, 2000. "Does financial liberalization relax financing constraints on firms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2467, The World Bank.
    34. Größl Ingrid & Stahlecker Peter, 2000. "Finanzierungsbedingungen und Güterangebot: Ein Überblick über finanzökonomische Ansätze und deren geldpolitische Konsequenzen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(2), pages 223-250, April.
    35. Peter van der Zwan, 2014. "Bank loan application success by SMEs: the role of ownership structure and innovation," Scales Research Reports H201404, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    36. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "The stockmarket as a source of finance : a comparison of U.S. and Indian firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1592, The World Bank.
    37. Hönig, Anja, 2012. "Financing Constraints Revisited - Is there a Role for Taxation and Internal Funds?," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66053, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    38. Lubomir Lizal & Jan Svejnar, 2000. "Financial Conditions and Investment during the Transition: Evidence from Czech Firms," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp153, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    39. Nguyen, Nhung & Luu, Nhung, 2013. "Determinants of Financing Pattern and Access to Formal -Informal Credit: The Case of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Viet Nam," MPRA Paper 81868, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    40. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Andros Gregoriou, 2013. "Liquidity Constraints and Investment Opportunities: New Evidence from Large and Small Businesses in the UK," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 269-279, July.
    42. Julio Pindado & Chabela De La Torre, 2009. "Effect of ownership structure on underinvestment and overinvestment: empirical evidence from Spain," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(2), pages 363-383, June.
    43. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1995. "Do Financing Constraints Explain Why Investment is Correlated with Cash Flow?," NBER Working Papers 5267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Chen, Huafeng (Jason) & Chen, Shaojun (Jenny), 2012. "Investment-cash flow sensitivity cannot be a good measure of financial constraints: Evidence from the time series," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 393-410.
    45. Koo, Jaewoon & Maeng, Kyunghee, 2005. "The effect of financial liberalization on firms' investments in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 281-297, April.
    46. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2013. "Study of U.S. Financial System," FESSUD studies fstudy10, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    47. Thorsten Beck, 2004. "The determinants of financing obstacles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3204, The World Bank.
    48. Paul E. Orzechowski, 2019. "The bank capital channel and bank profits," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 372-388, July.
    49. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
    50. Ghosh, Saibal, 2006. "Did financial liberalization ease financing constraints? Evidence from Indian firm-level data," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 176-190, June.
    51. Behr Andreas, 2005. "Investment, Q and Liquidity / Investitionen, Q und Liquidität: Evidence for Germany Using Firm Level Balance Sheet Data / Empirische Ergebnisse auf Basis von Unternehmensdaten," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(1), pages 2-21, February.
    52. Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Self-Rationing in European Businesses: Evidence from Survey Analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    53. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Kumar, P. C. & Riddick, Leigh A., 1998. "The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 293-320, March.
    54. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Danielle Forest & Christian Gouriéroux & Lise Salvas-Bronsard, 1997. "D’une analyse de variabilités à un modèle d’investissement des firmes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 331-350.
    56. Arttu Saarinen & Leena Aarikka-Stenroos, 2023. "Financing-Related Drivers and Barriers for Circular Economy Business: Developing a Conceptual Model from a Field Study," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1187-1211, September.
    57. Patrick M. McGuire, 2004. "Bank ties and bond market access: evidence on investment-cash flow sensitivity in Japan," BIS Working Papers 151, Bank for International Settlements.
    58. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-An Wang, 2005. "The impact of cross-ownership on the reaction of corporate investment and financing constraints: a panel threshold model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2315-2325.
    59. Jaewoon Koo & Kyunghee Maeng, 2006. "Foreign ownership and investment: evidence from Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2405-2414.
    60. Lyandres, Evgeny, 2007. "Costly external financing, investment timing, and investment-cash flow sensitivity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 959-980, December.
    61. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
    62. Lubomir Lizal & Jan Svejnar, 2001. "Investment, Credit Rationing and the Soft Budget Constraint: Evidence from Czech Panel Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 363, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    63. Marian Rizov, 2008. "Corporate Capital Structure And How Soft Budget Constraints May Affect It," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 648-684, September.
    64. Abed Al‐Nasser Abdallah & Wissam Abdallah & Mohsen Saad, 2020. "Institutional characteristics, investment sensitivity to cash flow and Tobin's q: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 324-339, August.
    65. Kato, Hideaki Kiyoshi & Loewenstein, Uri & Tsay, Wenyuh, 2002. "Dividend policy, cash flow, and investment in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 443-473, September.
    66. Degryse, H. & de Jong, A., 2001. "Investment and Internal Finance: Asymmetric Information or Managerial Discretion?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-86-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    67. Vikash Gautam & Rajendra R. Vaidya, 2018. "Evidence on the determinants of investment-cash flow sensitivity," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 229-244, December.
    68. Holod, Dmytro & Peek, Joe, 2007. "Asymmetric information and liquidity constraints: A new test," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2425-2451, August.
    69. Aggarwal, Raj & Zong, Sijing, 2006. "The cash flow-investment relationship: International evidence of limited access to external finance," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 89-104, February.
    70. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Borrower discouragement prevalence for Eurozone SMEs: Investigating the impact of economic sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 161-171.
    71. Gautam, Vikash, 2011. "Evidence on the dynamics of investment-cash flow sensitivity," MPRA Paper 35431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2011.
    72. Quader, Manzur & Taylor, Karl, 2014. "Corporate Efficiency, Credit Status and Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 8285, IZA Network @ LISER.
    73. Scott McCarthy & Barry Oliver & Martie-Louise Verreynne, 2017. "Bank financing and credit rationing of Australian SMEs," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 58-85, February.
    74. Laurent Soulat, 2006. "Les modèles Q-investissement et les modèles d'Euler : relations de banque principale, asymétries informationnelles et modifications des structures financières des firmes de keiretsu financier," Post-Print halshs-00085680, HAL.
    75. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment," NBER Working Papers 25366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Saibal Ghosh & Saurabh Ghosh, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Affect A Firm’s Investment Through Leverage? Micro Evidence for India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(1), pages 17-31.
    77. Kampouris, Ilias & Mertzanis, Charilaos & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2022. "Foreign ownership and the financing constraints of firms operating in a multinational environment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    78. Bhagat, Sanjai & Moyen, Nathalie & Suh, Inchul, 2005. "Investment and internal funds of distressed firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 449-472, June.
    79. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Chirinko, Robert S., 2002. "Further Evidence On The Relationship Between Firm Investment And Financial Status," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,28, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    80. Millet-Reyes, Benedicte, 2000. "The deregulation of capital markets in France," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 109-132, June.
    81. Ullah, Barkat, 2020. "Financial constraints, corruption, and SME growth in transition economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 120-132.
    82. Laurent Soulat, 2006. "Les modèles Q-investment et les modèles d'Euler : relations de banque principale, asymétries informationnelles et modifications des structures financières des firmes de keiretsu financier," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06010, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    83. Charles P. Himmelberg & R. Glenn Hubbard & Inessa Love, 2002. "Investment, protection, ownership, and the cost of capital," Working Paper Research 25, National Bank of Belgium.
    84. Anna GIUNTA & Domenico SARNO, 2009. "Firm’S Financing And Industrial Structure In The Less Developed Regions Of The South Italy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 509-525.
    85. Lubomir Lizal, 2001. "Does a Soft Macroeconomic Environment Induce Restructuring on the Microeconomic Level during the Transition Period? Evidence from Investment Behavior of Czech Enterprises," Development and Comp Systems 0012010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    86. Sebastian Edwards & Francis A. Longstaff & Alvaro Garcia Marin, 2015. "The U.S. Debt Restructuring of 1933: Consequences and Lessons," NBER Working Papers 21694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    87. Tut, Daniel, 2024. "External financing, corporate governance and the value of cash holdings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 156-179.
    88. Ding, Sai & Kim, Minjoo & Zhang, Xiao, 2018. "Do firms care about investment opportunities? Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 214-237.
    89. Tzu-Yun Tseng, 2012. "Will China's split share structure reform mitigate agency problems?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 193-207, February.
    90. Colombo, Emilio & Stanca, Luca, 2006. "Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint: evidence from Hungarian manufacturing firms," MPRA Paper 18708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    91. Himmelberg, Charles P. & Hubbard, R. Glenn & Love, Inessa, 2002. "Investor protection, ownership, and the cost of capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2834, The World Bank.
    92. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 1995.
    93. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Janzen, Malte & Requejo, Ignacio, 2019. "Capital allocation and ownership concentration in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 78-99.
    94. Konstantinos Drakos, 2013. "Bank loan terms and conditions for Eurozone SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 717-732, October.
    95. Gayane Hovakimian & Sheridan Titman, 2003. "Corporate Investment with Financial Constraints: Sensitivity of Investment to Funds from Voluntary Asset Sales," NBER Working Papers 9432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    96. Klaus Gugler, 2003. "Corporate governance and investment," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 261-289.
    97. Cheng, Chao & Yang, Liu, 2022. "What drives the credit constraints faced by Chinese small and micro enterprises?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    98. Atanasova, Christina V. & Wilson, Nicholas, 2004. "Disequilibrium in the UK corporate loan market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 595-614, March.
    99. Liang Guo & Ya Dai & Donald Lien, 2016. "The effects of China’s split-share reform on firms’ capital structure choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2530-2549, June.
    100. Stephen C. Vogt, 1994. "The role of internal financial sources in firm financing and investment decisions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, September.
    101. Nilba Feijó-Cuenca & Nuria Ceular-Villamandos & Virginia Navajas-Romero, 2023. "Behavioral Patterns That Influence the Financing Choice Models of Small Enterprises in Ecuador through Latent Class Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, April.
    102. Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Yurtoglu, B. Burcin, 2008. "Insider ownership, ownership concentration and investment performance: An international comparison," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 688-705, December.
    103. Anna Bottasso, 1996. "Firms’ Financial Structure And Real Decisions: A Critical Survey Of The Empirical Literature," CERIS Working Paper 199623, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    104. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Internal finance and investment : another look," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1663, The World Bank.
    105. Emilio Colombo & Luca Stanca, 2006. "Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 171-198, March.
    106. Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2017. "Family ties and access to finance in an Islamic environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-24.
    107. Charles X. Hu, 1999. "Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-39.
    108. Yang, Chau-Chen & Baker, H. Kent & Chou, Li-Chuan & Lu, Bo-Wei, 2009. "Does switching from NASDAQ to the NYSE affect investment-cash flow sensitivity?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 62(10), pages 1007-1012, October.
    109. Piekkola, Hannu & Haaparanta, Pertti, 1999. "Liquidity Constraints Faced by Firm and Employment," Discussion Papers 695, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    110. Joanna Tyrowicz, 2009. "Blame No One? Investment Decisions Of The Polish Stock-listed Companies," Working Papers 2009-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    111. Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Muhammad Rizwan & Ismail Senturk, 2022. "The Impact Of Intangible Assets And Firm-Specific Factors On Cash Flows: An Empirical Analysis Of Public Firms Listed On The Pakistan Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(3), pages 16-26.
    112. Maurizio La Rocca & Raffaele Staglianò & Tiziana La Rocca & Alfio Cariola, 2015. "Investment cash flow sensitivity and financial constraint: a cluster analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4442-4457, September.
    113. Tamara Vovchak, 2017. "Bank Credit, Liquidity Shocks and Firm Performance: Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp584, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    114. Fan,Yuting & Nguyen,Ha Minh & Qian,Rong & Nguyen,Ha Minh & Qian,Rong, 2012. "Collateralized Borrowing : Insights from The World Bank Enterprise Surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6001, The World Bank.
    115. Sharon Belenzon & Tomer Berkovitz & Luis A. Rios, 2013. "Capital Markets and Firm Organization: How Financial Development Shapes European Corporate Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1326-1343, June.
    116. Hanousek, Jan & Shamshur, Anastasiya, 2011. "A stubborn persistence: Is the stability of leverage ratios determined by the stability of the economy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1360-1376.
    117. Tut, Daniel, 2021. "Financial Crisis, Corporate Governance and the Value of Cash Holdings," MPRA Paper 108593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    118. Álvarez, Roberto & Bertin, Mauricio Jara, 2016. "Banking competition and firm-level financial constraints in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 89-104.
    119. Rajeev Dhawan, 1997. "Asymmetric Information and Debt Financing: Hie Empirical Importance of Size and Balance Sheet Factors," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 189-202.
    120. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuation, and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 75-138.

  98. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  99. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Shorter recessions and longer expansions," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 13-20.

    Cited by:

    1. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).

  100. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  101. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  102. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  103. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  104. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "An Empirical Disequilibrium Model of Labor, Consumption, and Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 633-654, August.

    Cited by:

    1. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875.
    2. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    3. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.

  105. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1988. "Are productivity fluctuations due to real supply shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 327-331.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  106. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1986. "Testing for Labor Market Equilibrium with an Exact Excess Demand Disequilibrium Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 468-476, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Lino P. Briguglio & Melchior Vella, 2015. "Labour demand in the EU and returns to scale: A production function approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 1103-1116, December.
    2. Ms. Mitali Das & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2013. "Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?," IMF Working Papers 2013/026, International Monetary Fund.

Chapters

  1. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2022. "On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 9-28, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 75-125, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2008. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 247-289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 255-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

Books

  1. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9895, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Machava, Agostinho & Brännäs, Kurt, 2015. "Mozambican Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve of Treasury Bills - An Empirical Study," Umeå Economic Studies 918, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    3. Zhang, Liangliang & Tian, Ruyan & Zhang, Weiping & Yang, Qing & Ye, Tingting, 2026. "Treasury bond pricing via no arbitrage arguments and machine learning: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Eyden Samunderu & Yvonne T. Murahwa, 2021. "Return Based Risk Measures for Non-Normally Distributed Returns: An Alternative Modelling Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-48, November.
    6. Chang, Yoosoon & Gómez-Rodríguez, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2026. "The influence of fiscal and monetary policies on the shape of the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Anh Le & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Tractable Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8411-8429, November.
    8. Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015. "Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
    9. Jiawei Du & Yi Hong, 2025. "Ultimate Forward Rate Prediction and its Application to Bond Yield Forecasting: A Machine Learning Perspective," Papers 2601.00011, arXiv.org.
    10. Constantino Hevia & Martin Sola, 2018. "Bond Risk Premia and Restrictions on Risk Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Shin, Minchul & Zhong, Molin, 2017. "Does realized volatility help bond yield density prediction?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 373-389.

  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 6636, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Bao, Te & Ma, Mengzhong & Wen, Yonggang, 2023. "Herding in the non-fungible token (NFT) market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    2. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mr. Thomas Helbling & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2003/046, International Monetary Fund.
    4. John B. Guerard, 2024. "Sir David Hendry: An Appreciation from Wall Street and What Macroeconomics Got Right," Working Papers 2024-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
    7. Victor Olkhov, 2020. "Business Cycles as Collective Risk Fluctuations," Papers 2012.04506, arXiv.org.
    8. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2007. "Is the trend in post-WW II US real GDP uncertain or non-linear?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 348-355, March.
    9. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
    10. Panchanan Das, 2015. "Entrepreneurial Impulse, Investment Behavior, and Economic Fluctuations–A VAR Analysis with Indian Data," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(2), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    12. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory III. Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 94053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    14. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    15. Viv B Hall & C. John McDermott, 2005. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?," Urban/Regional 0509013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Staff Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada.
    18. Cortez, Willy Walter & Islas C., Alejandro, 2018. "Can the informal sector affect the relationship between unemployment and output? An analysis of the Mexican case," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    19. Meriam BouAli & Adnen Ben Nasr & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2016. "A Nonlinear Approach for Modeling and Forecasting US Business Cycles," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 39-74, March.
    20. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Working Papers hal-03458584, HAL.
    21. du Plessis, S.A., 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-774, September.
    22. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    23. Minakshy Iyer, 2006. "An Index of Uncertainty for Business Cycle Leading Indicators," Working Papers id:751, eSocialSciences.
    24. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.
    25. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace état et au filtre de Kalman," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01019094, HAL.
    26. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2018. "Immigrants’ employment and the business cycle in Spain: taking account of gender and origin," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 463-490, August.
    27. Süssmuth Bernd & Woitek Ulrich, 2005. "Some New Results on Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, September.
    28. Gordon W. Crawford & Michael C. Fratantoni, 2003. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime‐Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 223-243, June.
    29. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    31. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    32. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "Econophysics Beyond General Equilibrium: the Business Cycle Model," Papers 1804.04721, arXiv.org.
    33. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen & Chih-Chiang Hsu, 2004. "Structural Break or Asymmetry? An Empirical Study of the Stock Wealth Effect on Consumption," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 690, Econometric Society.
    34. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 88531, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    35. Mehdi Pedram, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy in the monetary union: effects on business cycles," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(1), pages 90-117, March.
    36. Gustavo Cabrera González & Adrián de León Arias, 2021. "Dinámica anticipada del PIB trimestral en México ante shocks negativos derivados de factores debidos a la crisis sanitaria del covid-19," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, Enero - M.
    37. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    38. Zihao Wang & Kun Li & Steve Q. Xia & Hongfu Liu, 2021. "Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network," Papers 2107.10980, arXiv.org.
    39. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    40. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Herman J. Bierens, 2000. "Complex Unit Roots and Business Cycles: Are They Real?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0197, Econometric Society.
    42. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "Short‐ and long‐run price level uncertainty under different monetary policy regimes: an international comparison," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 183-212, July.
    43. Chian, Abraham C.-L. & Rempel, Erico L. & Rogers, Colin, 2006. "Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1194-1218.
    44. Gustavo Cabrera González, 2019. "Modeling and Projection of the Mexican Exchange Rate (Peso/Dollar): a Bayesian Approach for Model Selection," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 203-219, Abril-Jun.
    45. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "The Business Cycle Model Beyond General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 87204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic and Financial Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 93269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 425, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    48. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2001. "Unité et pluralité du cycle européen," Post-Print hal-03458556, HAL.
    49. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    50. Isaic Radu & Smirna Tudor & Paun Cristian, 2019. "A critical view on the mainstream theory of economic cycles," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 48-58, March.
    51. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Will the economic recovery die of old age?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    52. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
    53. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista, 2017. "Analysis of the efficiency–integration nexus of Japanese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 296-308.

IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.