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An Encompassing Test of Real Interest Rate Equalization

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  • Aaron Smallwood
  • Stefan C. Norrbin

Abstract

Much confusion about the real interest rate connection amongst different countries may result from a narrow approach to analyzing the data. Using an encompassing methodology that accommodates many different types of times‐series processes, we find that real interest rates are mean‐reverting long‐memory variables. We show that cointegration methodology can often fail in this environment. Using a more general approach, we detect a limited connection between real interest rates across countries. In particular, Germany is connected with several European countries, but the US is connected only with Canada and possibly the United Kingdom.

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  • Aaron Smallwood & Stefan C. Norrbin, 2008. "An Encompassing Test of Real Interest Rate Equalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 114-126, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:16:y:2008:i:1:p:114-126
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00731.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.
    2. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2007. "On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 119-125, February.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: a historical perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2331-2355, November.
    4. George R. Zodrow, 2019. "Capital Mobility and Capital Tax Competition," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: George R Zodrow (ed.), TAXATION IN THEORY AND PRACTICE Selected Essays of George R. Zodrow, chapter 18, pages 543-570, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Asai Manabu & Peiris Shelton & McAleer Michael & Allen David E., 2020. "Cointegrated Dynamics for a Generalized Long Memory Process: Application to Interest Rates," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Behavior of Real Interest Rates: New Evidence from a ``Suprasecular" Perspective," Working Papers 202093, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Stefan Norrbin & Aaron Smallwood, 2010. "Generalized long memory and mean reversion of the real exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1377-1386.
    8. Asai, M. & Peiris, S. & McAleer, M.J. & Allen, D.E., 2018. "Cointegrated Dynamics for A Generalized Long Memory Process," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2018-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Onsurang Norrbin & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2011. "Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate and the Effects of Calculating Expected Inflation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 107-130, July.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.

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