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Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure

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  • Lu, Biao
  • Wu, Liuren

Abstract

We extract two systematic economic factors from a wide array of noisy and sparsely observed macroeconomic releases, and link the dynamics and market prices of the two factors to the interest rate term structure. The two factors predict 77.9-82.1% of the daily variation in LIBOR and swap rates from one month to 10 years. Shocks on inflation-related releases have large, positive impacts on interest rates of all maturities, leading to parallel shifts of the yield curve, but shocks on output-related releases have larger impacts on the short rate than on the long rate, thus generating a slope effect.

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  • Lu, Biao & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 872-884, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:6:p:872-884
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    3. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & M. Hasan Yilmaz, 2021. "Do local and global factors impact the emerging markets' sovereign yield curves? Evidence from a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1214-1229, November.
    5. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna, 2018. "Yield curve interactions with the macroeconomic factors during global financial crisis among Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-192.
    6. Rodríguez-López, Araceli & Fernández-Abascal, Hermenegildo & Maté-García, Jorge-Julio & Rodríguez-Fernández, José-Miguel & Rojo-García, José-Luis & Sanz-Gómez, José-Antonio, 2021. "Evaluating Euribor Manipulation: Effects on Mortgage Borrowers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    7. Boffelli, Simona & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Macroannouncements, bond auctions and rating actions in the European government bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 148-173.
    8. Haitao Li & Tao Li & Cindy Yu, 2013. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules with Switching Regimes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(10), pages 2278-2294, October.
    9. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.

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