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Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. treasury futures market

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  • Dare, Wale

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Abstract

We argue empirically that the U.S. treasury futures market is informational inefficient. We show that an intraday strategy based on the assumption of cointegrated treasury futures prices earns statistically significant excess return over the equally weighted portfolio of treasury futures. We also provide empirical backing for the claim that the same strategy, financed by taking a short position in the 2-Year treasury futures contract, gives rise to a statistical arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Dare, Wale, 2017. "Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. treasury futures market," Economics Working Paper Series 1716, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2017:16
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1716.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedrich Hubalek & Irene Klein & Josef Teichmayn, 2002. "A General Proof Of The Dybvig-Ingersoll-Ross Theorem: Long Forward Rates Can Never Fall," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 447-451.
    2. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    3. Huberman, Gur, 1982. "A simple approach to arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 183-191, October.
    4. Hogan, Steve & Jarrow, Robert & Teo, Melvyn & Warachka, Mitch, 2004. "Testing market efficiency using statistical arbitrage with applications to momentum and value strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 525-565, September.
    5. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; U.S. treasury futures; statistical arbitrage; joint-hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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