IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eip/journl/y2021i4p102-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization Of Macroeconomic Policy And Stabilization Of Cyclical Economic Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Oleksandr BANDURA

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that, despite the current mandate of monetary policy, its final goal (at least for central banks of developed countries) is the control of three main macroeconomic variables — economic growth, employment and inflation, — regardless on actual mandate for this policy. However, the priorities of realization of the final goal may face the imperfection of macroeconomic models and rules of monetary policy, which will make it impossible to control all three macroeconomic variables at the same time. The article proposes a new instrument for monetary policy ¬— aggregate cumulative market imperfection — to optimize macroeconomic variables and stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. The author demonstrates the main competitive advantages of this instrument of monetary policy as compared with typical models of macroeconomic dynamics and simple rules of monetary policy (Simons, Friedman, and Taylor rules). In particular, this instrument is valid for any combination of market conditions, for any economy and for any moment of real time. It can be used simultaneously as: 1) a target of monetary policy; 2) a simple rule of monetary policy correction in the short-run; 3) a reaction function to evaluate a backward connection between the regulator’s actions and the effect of these actions on current economic situation; and 4) an instrument to stabilize cyclical economic dynamics; 5) an instrument to forecast starting (ending) point of recessions and shift in macroeconomic trends. If we can hold the aggregate cumulative market imperfection within a given optimal interval with the help of government regulations (i.e. to target this indicator only) using all possible instruments both of monetary, and (if necessary) of other kinds of regulation policy, we will be able to optimize all three main macroeconomic variables. Optimality of these variables means providing maximum economic growth and employment under comfortable inflation for any combination of market conditions and for any moment of calendar time, which will at the same time stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. In doing so, we will not target each of these three variables separately, that is, it is practically impossible to determine quantitatively their optimal values as they change permanently over time together with the constant change of current combination of market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandr BANDURA, 2021. "Optimization Of Macroeconomic Policy And Stabilization Of Cyclical Economic Dynamics," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 102-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2021:i:4:p:102-124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_21_4_102_uk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George S. Tavlas, 2015. "In Old Chicago: Simons, Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 99-121, February.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 972, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226791258 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pier Francesco Asso & George A. Kahn & Robert Leeson, 2007. "The Taylor rule and the transformation of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Tobias Rühl, 2015. "Taylor rules revisited: ECB and Bundesbank in comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 951-967, May.
    3. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    4. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    5. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0286 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    8. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    9. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 73-98, February.
    10. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    11. Giammarioli, Nicola & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    13. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0343 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jens Klose, 2011. "Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function," Ruhr Economic Papers 0286, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    18. Jens Klose, 2012. "Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-295, September.
    19. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 63-79, October.
    20. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    21. Klose, Jens, 2014. "Determining structural breaks in central bank reaction functions of the financial crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 78-90.
    22. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2021:i:4:p:102-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iryna Bazhal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://eip.org.ua/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.