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Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics

  • Gianluca, MORETTI
  • Giulio, NICOLETTI
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    Recent literature clams that key variables such as aggregate productivity and inflation display long memory dynamics. We study the impllications of this high degree of persistence on the estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DGSE) models. We show that long memory data produce substantial bias in the deep parameter estimates when a standard Kalman Filter-MLE procedure is used. We propose a modification of the Kalman Filter procedure, we mainly augment the state space, which deals with this problem. By the means of the augmented state space we can consistently estimate the model parameters as well as produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts compared to the standard Kalman filter.

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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2008-37.pdf
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    Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2008037.

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    Length: 37
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2008037
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    1. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Cahiers de recherche 2003-23, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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    12. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
    13. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain & Giovanni Caggiano, 2008. "Nelson-Plosser revisited: the ACF approach," Working Paper Series 18-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
    14. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    16. Carlos Carvalho, 2005. "Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," Macroeconomics 0509017, EconWPA, revised 12 Sep 2005.
    17. Altissimo, Filippo & Mojon, Benoit & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 231-241, March.
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