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Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model

  • Exterkate, P.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.
  • Heij, C.
  • Groenen, P.J.F.

Various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment are compared with the objective of forecasting yield curves using the Nelson-Siegel model. Five issues in factor extraction are addressed, namely, selection of a subset of the available information, incorporation of the forecast objective in constructing factors, specification of a multivariate forecast objective, data grouping before constructing factors, and selection of the number of factors in a data-driven way. Our empirical results show that each of these features helps to improve forecast accuracy, especially for the shortest and longest maturities. The data-driven methods perform well in relatively volatile periods, when simpler models do not suffice.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/18254/EI2010-06.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2010-06.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:18254
Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam
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Web page: http://www.eur.nl/ese

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  1. Koopman, Siem Jan & Mallee, Max I. P. & Van der Wel, Michel, 2010. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 329-343.
  2. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
  3. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  5. repec:dgr:uvatin:20070028 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2003. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0304, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  8. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  9. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
  11. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  12. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
  13. repec:dgr:uvatin:2007028 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  17. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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