IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_199_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling public debt strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Manna

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Emmanuela Bernardini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Mauro Bufano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Davide Dottori

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework to model medium-to-long term public debt refinancing strategies. Essentially the framework has two main building blocks. First, a large number of strategies are generated so as to determine a wide range of potential financing plans, regardless of whether they look conventional (close to current actual choices) or odd, provided they meet the Treasury�s financing needs and legal constraints. Second, the performance of these viable strategies is measured in terms of current and future costs as well as various types of risk. As an add-on, through a panel model the framework accounts for the premium over current market rates that investors may demand in order to subscribe unusually large issues by the Treasury. All in all, this framework yields a frontier of efficient cost-risk outcomes. Moreover, it assesses how strategies perform when the interest rate forecasts relied on turn out to be wrong. Finally, it encompasses both a long-term perspective in debt management and a more tactical approach, allowing for time variant choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Manna & Emmanuela Bernardini & Mauro Bufano & Davide Dottori, 2013. "Modelling public debt strategies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_199_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0199/QEF_199.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Bolder, 2003. "A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy," Staff Working Papers 03-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    3. Buera, Francisco & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2004. "Optimal maturity of government debt without state contingent bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 531-554, April.
    4. David Bolder & Simon Deeley, 2011. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements," Discussion Papers 11-3, Bank of Canada.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Notes on Optimal Debt Management," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 281-289, November.
    6. Alessandro Missale, "undated". "Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 166, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    9. Peter Exterkate & Dick Van Dijk & Christiaan Heij & Patrick J. F. Groenen, 2013. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data‐Rich Environment Using the Factor‐Augmented Nelson–Siegel Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 193-214, April.
    10. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    11. David Bolder, 2008. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 5-18.
    12. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Alessandro Missale, 2005. "Managing Debt Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 1388, CESifo.
    13. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
    14. David Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada.
    15. Massimo Bernaschi & Maya Briani & Marco Papi & Davide Vergni, 2007. "Scenario-generation methods for an optimal public debt strategy," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 217-229.
    16. Berardi, Andrea, 1995. "Estimating the Cox, ingersoll and Ross model of the term structure: a multivariate approach," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 51-74, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    2. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.
    3. Jean-Paul Renne, 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    4. Hans J. Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "A Critical Analysis of the Technical Assumptions of the Standard Micro Portfolio Approach to Sovereign Debt Management," OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management 4, OECD Publishing.
    5. Hans J Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "Is the standard micro portfolio approach to sovereign debt management still appropriate?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 141-155, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Targeting under Alternative Fiscal Regimes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 3, pages 037-075, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," Working Papers No 01/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    9. Eidam, Frederik, 2018. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. David Andolfatto & Fernando Martin, 2023. "Welfare-enhancing inflation and liquidity premia," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1036-1047, December.
    11. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
    12. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gomez-Rodriguez & Christian Matthes, 2023. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Basil Guggenheim & Mario Meichle & Thomas Nellen, 2019. "Confederation debt management since 1970," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-23, December.
    15. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Malley, James, 2015. "Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 420-444.
    16. Massimo BERNASCHI & Alessandro MISSALE & Davide VERGNI, 2009. "Should governments minimize debt service cost and risk? A closer look at the debt strategy. Simulation approach," Departmental Working Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    17. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
    18. Thomas Sargent & Mikhail Golosov & David Evans & anmol bhandari, 2014. "Optimal Taxation with Incomplete Markets," 2014 Meeting Papers 1276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    20. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 363-386, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    refinancing strategy; public debt; government auctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_199_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.