Modelling public debt strategies
This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework to model medium-to-long term public debt refinancing strategies. Essentially the framework has two main building blocks. First, a large number of strategies are generated so as to determine a wide range of potential financing plans, regardless of whether they look conventional (close to current actual choices) or odd, provided they meet the Treasuryï¿½s financing needs and legal constraints. Second, the performance of these viable strategies is measured in terms of current and future costs as well as various types of risk. As an add-on, through a panel model the framework accounts for the premium over current market rates that investors may demand in order to subscribe unusually large issues by the Treasury. All in all, this framework yields a frontier of efficient cost-risk outcomes. Moreover, it assesses how strategies perform when the interest rate forecasts relied on turn out to be wrong. Finally, it encompasses both a long-term perspective in debt management and a more tactical approach, allowing for time variant choices.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma|
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J, 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Peter Exterkate & Dick Van Dijk & Christiaan Heij & Patrick J. F. Groenen, 2013. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data‐Rich Environment Using the Factor‐Augmented Nelson–Siegel Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 193-214, 04.
- Exterkate, P. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- David Jamieson Bolder, 2003. "A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy," Staff Working Papers 03-10, Bank of Canada.
- David Jamieson Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada.
- David Jamieson Bolder & Simon Deeley, 2011. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements," Discussion Papers 11-3, Bank of Canada.
- Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Notes on Optimal Debt Management," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 281-289, November.
- George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
- David Jamieson Bolder, 2008. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 5-18.
- Alessandro Missale, "undated". "Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 166, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Alessandro MISSALE & Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2005. "Managing debt stability," Departmental Working Papers 2005-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
- Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Alessandro Missale, 2005. "Managing Debt Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 1388, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Massimo Bernaschi & Maya Briani & Marco Papi & Davide Vergni, 2007. "Scenario-generation methods for an optimal public debt strategy," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 217-229.
- Berardi, Andrea, 1995. "Estimating the Cox, ingersoll and Ross model of the term structure: a multivariate approach," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 51-74, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)