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Modelling public debt strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Manna

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Emmanuela Bernardini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Mauro Bufano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Davide Dottori

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper puts forward a comprehensive framework to model medium-to-long term public debt refinancing strategies. Essentially the framework has two main building blocks. First, a large number of strategies are generated so as to determine a wide range of potential financing plans, regardless of whether they look conventional (close to current actual choices) or odd, provided they meet the Treasury�s financing needs and legal constraints. Second, the performance of these viable strategies is measured in terms of current and future costs as well as various types of risk. As an add-on, through a panel model the framework accounts for the premium over current market rates that investors may demand in order to subscribe unusually large issues by the Treasury. All in all, this framework yields a frontier of efficient cost-risk outcomes. Moreover, it assesses how strategies perform when the interest rate forecasts relied on turn out to be wrong. Finally, it encompasses both a long-term perspective in debt management and a more tactical approach, allowing for time variant choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Manna & Emmanuela Bernardini & Mauro Bufano & Davide Dottori, 2013. "Modelling public debt strategies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_199_13
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2013-0199/QEF_199.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    refinancing strategy; public debt; government auctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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