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Capital and Contagion in Financial Networks

Author

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  • di Iasio, Giovanni
  • Battiston, Stefano
  • Infante, Luigi
  • Pierobon, Federico

Abstract

We implement a novel method to detect systemically important financial institutions in a network. The method consists in a simple model of distress and losses redistribution derived from the interaction of banks' balance-sheets through bilateral exposures. The algorithm goes beyond the traditional default-cascade mechanism, according to which contagion propagates only through banks that actually default. We argue that even in the absence of other defaults, distressed-but-non-defaulting institutions transmit the contagion through channels other than solvency: weakness in their balance sheet reduces the value of their liabilities, thereby negatively affecting their interbank lenders even before a credit event occurs. In this paper, we apply the methodology to a unique dataset covering bilateral exposures among all Italian banks in the period 2008-2012. We find that the systemic impact of individual banks has decreased over time since 2008. The result can be traced back to decreasing volumes in the interbank market and to an intense recapitalization process. We show that the marginal effect of a bank's capital on its contribution to systemic risk in the network is considerably larger when interconnectedness is high (good times): this finding supports the regulatory work on counter-cyclical (macroprudential) capital buffers.

Suggested Citation

  • di Iasio, Giovanni & Battiston, Stefano & Infante, Luigi & Pierobon, Federico, 2013. "Capital and Contagion in Financial Networks," MPRA Paper 52141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52141
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52141/1/MPRA_paper_52141.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • S Battiston & G di Iasio & L Infante & F Pierobon, 2015. "Capital and contagion in financial networks," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39 Bank for International Settlements.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    2. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
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    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2013. "Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2549-2587, December.
    10. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:90-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Affinito, Massimiliano & Franco Pozzolo, Alberto, 2017. "The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-107.
    3. Giuseppe Cappelletti & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2017. "Multiple lending, credit lines, and financial contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1123, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2017. "Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 592-606.
    5. FUJIWARA Yoshi & TERAI Masaaki & FUJITA Yuji & SOUMA Wataru, 2016. "DebtRank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan," Discussion papers 16046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Thiago Christiano Silva & Michel Alexandre da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2016. "Modeling Financial Networks: a feedback approach," Working Papers Series 438, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Stefano Battiston & Marco D'Errico & Stefano Gurciullo & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "Leveraging the network: a stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Papers 1503.00621, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    8. Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2016. "Discovering SIFIs in interbank communities," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def037, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2017. "Multiple lending, credit lines and financial contagion," Working Paper Series 2089, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; interbank market; contagion; network; feedback centrality.;

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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