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New Keynesian optimal-policy models: an empirical assessment

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  • Richard Dennis

Abstract

This paper estimates two optimization-based sticky-price New Keynesian models and assesses how well they describe U.S. output, inflation, and interest rate dynamics. We consider models in which either internal habit formation influence consumption behavior, and in which Calvo-pricing and inflation indexation generate price and inflation inertia. Subject to constraints dictated by household and firm behavior, monetary policy is set under discretion and the model's time-consistent equilibrium is employed to estimate key behavioral parameters. We find that specifications estimated on consumption data perform better than specifications estimated on output data and that models with external habit formation out-perform models with internal habit formation. Nevertheless, even the best fitting specification displays characteristics that are inconsistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dennis, 2003. "New Keynesian optimal-policy models: an empirical assessment," Working Paper Series 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2003-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation," Working Papers 00-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Matheron, Julien & Poilly, Céline, 2009. "How well does a small structural model with sticky prices and wages fit postwar U.S. data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 266-284, January.
    2. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    3. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    4. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Comment on "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 449-458 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carl Walsh, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Real Objectives," Research and Policy Notes 2007/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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