IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/mfplwp/0002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Solving forward-looking models of cross-country adjustment within the euro area

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper generalizes the standard methods of solving rational expectations models to the case of time-varying nonstochastic parameters, recurring in a finite cycle. Such a specification occurs in a simple stylized New Keynesian model of the euro area when we combine the rotation in the ECB Governing Council (as constituted by the Treaty of Nice) and home bias in the interest rate decisions taken by its members. In small and mid-size economies, this combination slightly increases output and inflation volatility, as compared to a monetary policy setup without rotation. The method of Christiano (2002) has also been applied to solve the model when we assume a lagged perception of foreign macroeconomic shocks by domestic agents. When the cross-country synchronization of shocks is low or moderate and when these shocks are relatively persistent, the exclusion of contemporaneous foreign shocks from domestic agents' information sets may raise the volatility of output. There is also some tentative evidence that this effect could particularly affect mid-size economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Torój, Andrzej, 2009. "Solving forward-looking models of cross-country adjustment within the euro area," MF Working Papers 2, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 04 Sep 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gov.pl/documents/1079560/1080340/MF_WP_No_1-2009.pdf/3454ec5a-8a6b-40d2-127b-ffa5bf605547
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
    2. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    3. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March.
    4. Séverine Menguy, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 121-141.
    5. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October.
    7. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Discussion Papers 2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Volker Clausen & Bernd Hayo, 2006. "Asymmetric monetary policy effects in EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1134.
    9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    10. Andrzej Toroj, 2009. "Macroeconomic adjustment and heterogeneity in the euro area," NBP Working Papers 54, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Edouard Turkisch, 2005. "ECB Governance in an Enlarged Eurozone," Working Papers 2005-20, CEPII research center.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Barbara Styczynska, 2006. "The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council: An Assessment of the ECB Rotation Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 865-897, December.
    13. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Discussion Papers 2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 8604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2007. "Introduction to Structural Macroeconometrics," Introductory Chapters, in: Structural Macroeconometrics, Princeton University Press.
    16. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
    17. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    18. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
    19. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Barbara Styczynska, 2006. "The Allocation of Power in the Enlarged ECB Governing Council: An Assessment of the ECB Rotation Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 865-897, December.
    21. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
    22. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
    23. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
    24. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    25. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    26. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    27. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
    28. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    29. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
    30. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Monetary policy committees and interest rate setting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 487-507, February.
    31. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    32. LarsCalmfors & GiancarloCorsetti & Michael P.Devereux & SeppoHonkapohja & GillesSaint-Paul & Hans-WernerSinn & Jan-EgbertSturm & XavierVives, 2007. "EEAG Report on the European Economy 2007," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 1-156, February.
    33. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    34. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    35. Gebhard Flaig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1937, CESifo.
    36. Ansgar Belke, 2003. "The rotation model is not sustainable," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 38(3), pages 119-124, May.
    37. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    38. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; monetary policy; solving rational expectations models; generalized Schur decomposition; heterogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ministry of Finance in Poland). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/mfigvpl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.