Inflation expectation and implicit inflation: does market research provide accurate measures?
In recent years bonds indexed to inflation rates have experienced a tremendous growth in trading volumes. These securities have become an important tool for the diversification of investors' portfolios, to liability management and especially to gauge the expectations of monetary authorities. In this environment, this study contributes as it presents an amended methodology to estimate the inflation risk premium and in applying different methodologies in the Brazilian market. The results indicate that implicit inflation measures with or without adjustment of the inflation risk premium return the smallest forecast errors in relation to the IPCA of measurement period.
Volume (Year): 8 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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- Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009.
"Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
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- Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve With no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 1210, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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