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Publishing central bank interest rate forecasts

Author

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  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the Federal Reserve has made significant strides toward greater transparency in the conduct of monetary policy. Most recently, last November, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants?that is, the Federal Reserve Presidents and Governors?started to release their projections for output growth, unemployment, and inflation to the public more frequently and with greater detail than before (Rudebusch 2008). Such transparency can illuminate the FOMC's policy strategies and goals and help inform the public's expectations about future economic developments. Of course, the release of other forward-looking indicators could also be informative. For example, a few central banks release short-term interest rate forecasts along with their economic projections to help guide expectations of future policy. However, the FOMC participants decided against taking this step and will not release the expected policy rate paths that underlie their economic projections (Kohn 2008). This Economic Letter, which draws on Rudebusch and Williams (2006), describes some of the pros and cons of revealing future policy inclinations, including the publication of central bank interest rate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008. "Publishing central bank interest rate forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan25.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2008:i:jan25:n:2008-02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "Central bank forecasting: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
    2. John C. Williams, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 367-375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Ozer Karagedikli & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Quantitative or Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does it Matter?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 491-503, December.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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