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An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

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  • Josué Fernando Cortés Espada
  • Alberto Torres García
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

Abstract

We study the dynamics of the term-structure of interest rates in Mexico. Specifically, we investigate time variation in bond risk premia and the common factors that have influenced the behavior of the yield curve. We find that term-premia in government bonds appear to be time-varying. We then estimate a principal components model. We find that over 95% of the total variation in the yield curve can be explained by two factors. The first factor captures movements in the level of the yield curve, while the second one captures movements in the slope. Moreover, we find that the level factor is positively correlated with measures of long-term inflation expectations and that the slope factor is negatively correlated with the overnight interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Josué Fernando Cortés Espada & Alberto Torres García & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008-07, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2008-07
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    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BBF0DEA92-F647-4350-1100-942D520EC76D%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    3. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "An Affine Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-09, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term-Structure; Time-Varying Risk Premia; Principal Components;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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