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An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Cortés Espada Josué Fernando
  • Ramos Francia Manuel
  • Torres García Alberto

Abstract

We study the dynamics of the term-structure of interest rates in Mexico. Specifically, we investigate time variation in bond risk premia and the common factors that have influenced the behavior of the yield curve. We find that term-premia in government bonds appear to be time-varying. We then estimate a principal components model. We find that over 95% of the total variation in the yield curve can be explained by two factors. The first factor captures movements in the level of the yield curve, while the second one captures movements in the slope. Moreover, we find that the level factor is positively correlated with measures of long-term inflation expectations and that the slope factor is negatively correlated with the overnight interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008-07, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2008-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
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    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cortés Espada Josué Fernando & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "An Affine Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-09, Banco de México.
    2. Santiago García-Verdú & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Manuel Sánchez-Martínez, 2019. "TIIE-28 Swaps as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy in Mexico," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Working Paper Series 2021-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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