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Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response

  • John H. Huston
  • Roger W. Spencer
Registered author(s):

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a single variable indicative of the state of market speculation; to determine whether the Federal Reserve has attempted to quell speculation when it has been most rampant and whether such attempts were successful. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examine the literature on market “bubbles” and the Federal Reserve's treatment of them; to determine a single variable reflective of market speculation via principle components integration; to examine the Federal Reserve's interaction with market speculation by estimating a vector autoregression version of the Taylor rule. Findings – It is possible to construct a single variable representative of market speculation, termed the index of speculative excess that correlates well with standard views of market excess; the Federal Reserve did attempt to retard market speculation during the three major bull markets of the past century; monetary policy did little to inhibit market speculation. Originality/value – Highly original in the construction of a single variable reflective of market speculation; joins the ongoing debate as to the extent of Federal Reserve concern with speculative activity and the Fed's poor record of accomplishment in this area.

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    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 46-61

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:46-61
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    1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
    17. Kumar, Raman & Ferris, Stephen P & Chance, Don M, 1991. "The Differential Impact of Federal Reserve Margin Requirements on Stock Return Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 343-66, August.
    18. Christian Weller, 2002. "Policy on the margin: Evaluating the impact of margin debt requirements on stock valuations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, March.
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    20. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. " Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
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