A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble
A surprisingly large amount of commentary today marks the beginning of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s from either the Netscape Communications initial public offering of 1995 or Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech of 1996. We believe that this is wrong: we see little sign that the aggregate U.S. stock market was in any way in a significant bubble until 1998 or so.
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- Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 2003.
"The Equity Premium in Retrospect,"
NBER Working Papers
9525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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