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A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble

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  • J. Bradford DeLong
  • Konstantin Magin

Abstract

A surprisingly large amount of commentary today marks the beginning of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s from either the Netscape Communications initial public offering of 1995 or Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech of 1996. We believe that this is wrong: we see little sign that the aggregate U.S. stock market was in any way in a significant bubble until 1998 or so.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Bradford DeLong & Konstantin Magin, 2006. "A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble," NBER Working Papers 12011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. William Quinn & John D. Turner, 2023. "Bubbles in history," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(4), pages 636-655, May.
    2. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    3. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    4. Vivek Singh, 2013. "Did institutions herd during the internet bubble?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 513-534, October.
    5. Kshitija Joshi & Deepak Chandrashekar & Krishna Satyanarayana & Apoorva Srinivas, 2022. "VC Funded Start-Ups in India: Innovation, Social Impact, and the Way Forward," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 104-113, June.
    6. Allen, Thomas & Boullot, Mathieu & Dées, Stéphane & de Gaye, Annabelle & Lisack, Noëmie & Thubin, Camille & Wegner, Oriane, 2025. "Using short-term scenarios to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Herz, Christian & Neunert, Daniela & Will, Sebastian & Wolf, Niko J. & Zwick, Tobias, 2012. "Portfolioallokation: Einbezug verschiedener Assetklassen," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-01, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    8. John H. Huston & Roger W. Spencer, 2009. "Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    9. Daniel Aobdia & Luminita Enache & Anup Srivastava, 2021. "Changes in Big N auditors’ client selection and retention strategies over time," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 715-754, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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