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A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model

Listed author(s):
  • Seonghoon Cho

    ()

    (Columbia University)

  • Antonio Moreno

    ()

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

We formulate and solve a Rational Expectations New Keynesian macro model that implies non-linear cross-equation restrictions on the dynamics of inflation, the output gap and the Federal funds rate. Our maximum likelihood estimation procedure fully imposes these restrictions and yields asymptotic and small sample distributions of the structural parameters. We show how the structural parameters shape the responses of the macro variables to the structural shocks. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed against inflation.

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File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1132241496_wp1403.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 14/03.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2003
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1403
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.unav.edu/web/facultad-de-ciencias-economicas-y-empresariales

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  1. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-58.
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  8. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
  9. Jeffery Amato, Thomas Laubach, 2000. "Monetary Policy In An Estimated Optimization-Based Model With Sticky Prices And Wages," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 303, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  15. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  17. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
  18. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 877-888, December.
  20. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  21. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  22. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  23. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
  24. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
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  27. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:877-88 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
  29. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  30. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  31. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar, pages -.
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