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A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model

Author

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  • Seonghoon Cho

    () (Columbia University)

  • Antonio Moreno

    () (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

Abstract

We formulate and solve a Rational Expectations New Keynesian macro model that implies non-linear cross-equation restrictions on the dynamics of inflation, the output gap and the Federal funds rate. Our maximum likelihood estimation procedure fully imposes these restrictions and yields asymptotic and small sample distributions of the structural parameters. We show how the structural parameters shape the responses of the macro variables to the structural shocks. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed against inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2003. "A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model," Faculty Working Papers 14/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule: Past, Present and Future," Faculty Working Papers 02/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2014. "On testing for nonlinearity in multivariate time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-4.
    3. Ravenna, Federico, 2007. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2048-2064, October.
    4. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
    6. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    8. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    9. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2006. "A Small-Sample Study of the New-Keynesian Macro Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1461-1481, September.
    10. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Zbynek Stork, 2011. "A DSGE model of the Czech economy: a Ministry of Finance approach," EcoMod2011 3007, EcoMod.
    12. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2003. "Testing the Calvo model of sticky prices," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 40-53.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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