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A Structural Estimation and Interpretation of the New Keynesian Macro Model

  • Seonghoon Cho

    ()

    (Columbia University)

  • Antonio Moreno

    ()

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

We formulate and solve a Rational Expectations New Keynesian macro model that implies non-linear cross-equation restrictions on the dynamics of inflation, the output gap and the Federal funds rate. Our maximum likelihood estimation procedure fully imposes these restrictions and yields asymptotic and small sample distributions of the structural parameters. We show how the structural parameters shape the responses of the macro variables to the structural shocks. While the point estimates imply that the Fed has been stabilizing inflation fluctuations since 1980, our econometric analysis suggests considerable uncertainty regarding the stance of the Fed against inflation.

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File URL: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom/files/workingpapersmodule/@random437a048e3df62/1132241496_wp1403.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 14/03.

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Length: 50 pages pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1403
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
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  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," NBER Working Papers 8226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  7. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of operational policy rules in an estimated semi-classical structural model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
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  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:877-88 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999. "Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  20. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  21. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Binder, M. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models: Characterisation of the Nature of the Solutions and Their Fully Recursive Computation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9619, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  23. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1997. "Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 877-888, December.
  24. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-58.
  25. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  26. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  27. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  29. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  30. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
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