The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?
In February 2005, former Chairman Alan Greenspan referred to the decline in long-term rates in the wake of the Fed increasing the target for the federal funds rate by 150 basis points as a “conundrum.” Greenspan’s remarks generated considerable interest and research. I show that the relationship between the 10 year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate changed dramatically in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan’s observation. I argue that the marked change in the relationship between the federal funds rate and long-term yields is a natural consequence of Goodhart’s Law.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Poole, 2007. "Milton and money stock control," Speech 118, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Troy A. Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005.
"Generalizing the Taylor principle,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
- Edward Nelson, 2004.
"The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?,"
2004-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Don H. Kim, 2005.
"Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
474, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
- Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2005. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 183-194.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006.
"The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996.
"Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Celia Chen, 1993. "Testing structural stability with endogenous break point: a size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Working Papers 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995.
"Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, 03.
- Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2007-039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.