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The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model


  • Anatoliy Belaygorod
  • Michael J. Dueker


We extend Lubik and Schorfheide's (2004) likelihood-based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models under indeterminacy to encompass a sample period including both determinacy and indeterminacy by implementing the change-point methodology (Chib, 1998). The most striking finding about the indeterminacy regime, which is estimated to coincide with the Great Inflation of the 1970s, is that it exhibits the price puzzle, in that the inflation rate rises immediately and in a sustained manner following a positive interest rate shock. Thus, the price puzzle might have been a genuine phenomenon under indeterminacy, rather than a false finding to be excised through specification search and parameter restrictions. ; Earlier title: Timing transitions between determinate and indeterminate equilibria in an empirical DSGE model: benefits and implications

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  • Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-025

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    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
    2. Strid, Ingvar, 2008. "Metropolis-Hastings prefetching algorithms," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 706, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Dec 2009.
    3. Strid, Ingvar, 2010. "Efficient parallelisation of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms using a prefetching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2814-2835, November.

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