IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v17y2008i3p412-424.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Vázquez, Jesús

Abstract

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Suggested Citation

  • Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 412-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:412-424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059-0560(07)00004-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vázquez Jesús, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates during U.S. Post-War: A Case for the Lucas Proof Equilibrium?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    2. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    5. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    6. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    7. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
    8. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    9. Hess Chung & Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 809-842, June.
    10. Carlo A. Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 234, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    12. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
    13. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    14. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
    15. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2008. "The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    2. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    4. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Escaping the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1030-1058, April.
    5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    6. Mari­a-Dolores, Ramón & Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The new Keynesian monetary model: Does it show the comovement between GDP and inflation in the U.S.?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1466-1488, May.
    7. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan-Miguel, 2013. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1852-1871.
    8. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2008. "Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 251-277, December.
    9. Ilabaca, Francisco & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia S., 2018. "International Great Inflation And Common Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1428-1461, September.
    11. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum, 2017. "U.S. monetary-fiscal regime changes in the presence of endogenous feedback in policy rules," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    14. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-1652, September.
    15. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    16. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:057 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    18. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
    19. Roger E.A. Farmer & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 1-22, September.
    20. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:412-424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.