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An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method

  • Murphy, Alan P

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

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    This paper estimates a coincident indicator of economic activity for Ireland using a dynamic single-factor model. The composite index is used to identify the peaks and troughs in Irish economic activity, and is capable of being updated on a timelier basis than estimates of GDP or GNP. The contribution of this paper is to provide an easily understood coincident index reflecting current economic activity in the Irish economy. This could be useful in helping policy makers and private agents to identify the peaks and troughs in Irish economic activity.

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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 4/RT/05.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/05
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    1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    2. Martin Schneider & Martin Spitzer, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian GDP using the generalized dynamic factor model," Working Papers 89, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
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