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An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method

Author

Listed:
  • Murphy, Alan P

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper estimates a coincident indicator of economic activity for Ireland using a dynamic single-factor model. The composite index is used to identify the peaks and troughs in Irish economic activity, and is capable of being updated on a timelier basis than estimates of GDP or GNP. The contribution of this paper is to provide an easily understood coincident index reflecting current economic activity in the Irish economy. This could be useful in helping policy makers and private agents to identify the peaks and troughs in Irish economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Murphy, Alan P, 2005. "An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/05
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    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/4rt05---an-economic-activity-index-for-ireland-the-dynamic-single-factor-method-(murphy).pdf?sfvrsn=4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Schneider & Martin Spitzer, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian GDP using the generalized dynamic factor model," Working Papers 89, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    3. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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