IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wai/econwp/05-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models

Author

Listed:
  • Leo Krippner

    () (AMP Capital Investors)

Abstract

This article derives a generic, intertemporally-consistent, and arbitrage-free version of the popular class of yield curve models originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). The derived model has a theoretical foundation (conferred via the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework) that allows it to be used in applications that involve an implicit or explicit time-series context. As an example of the potentialapplication of the model, the intertemporal consistency is exploited to derive a theoretical time-series process that may be used to forecast the yield curve. The empirical application of the forecasting framework to United States data results in out-of-sample forecasts that outperform the random walk over a sample period of almost 50 years, for forecast horizons ranging from six months to three years.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://wms-webprod1.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0501.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    2. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    4. Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Zin, Stanley, 1998. "Arbitrage Opportunities in Arbitrage-Free Models of Bond Pricing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 13-26, January.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    7. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonormalised Laguerre Polynomials: A Consistent Cross-Sectional and Inter-Temporal Approach," Working Papers in Economics 03/02, University of Waikato.
    8. Ben Hunt, 1995. "Fitting Parsimonious Yield Curve Models to Australian Coupon Bond Data," Working Paper Series 51, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Soto, Gloria M., 2001. "Immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the Spanish bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1037-1057, June.
    11. Jordan, James V. & Mansi, Sattar A., 2003. "Term structure estimation from on-the-run Treasuries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1487-1509, August.
    12. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
    13. James Steeley, 2004. "Estimating time-varying risk premia in UK long-term government bonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 367-373.
    14. Seppälä, Juha & Viertiö, Petri, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates : Estimation and interpretation," Research Discussion Papers 19/1996, Bank of Finland.
    15. Fang, Victor & Muljono, Ronny, 2003. "An empirical analysis of the Australian dollar swap spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 153-173, April.
    16. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    17. Mansi, Sattar A & Phillips, Jeffrey H, 2001. "Modeling the Term Structure from the On-the-Run Treasury Yield Curve," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 545-564, Winter.
    18. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis," Working Paper Series 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-183, June.
    21. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Theoretically Consistent Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-59.
    2. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Attributing Returns and Optimising United States Swaps Portfolios Using an Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Model of the Yield Curve," Working Papers in Economics 05/03, University of Waikato.
    3. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
    4. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    yield curve; term structure of interest rates; Nelson and Siegel model; Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaknz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.