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The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The Case of Ireland

  • Bredin, Don

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Cuthbertson, Keith

    (Imperial College, London)

Using Irish money market rates (spot rates) with a term to maturity of 1, 3, and 6 months and monthly data, 1984-1997, we provide a number of tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure. The paper draws on co-integration techniques and the methodological approach of Campbell and Shiller (1987, 1991). On balance our results lend support to the EH and are broadly consistent with the recent findings for the UK, but are in sharp contrast to those for the US. It is encouraging that our results are consistent with those of recent studies at the short end of the maturity spectrum for the UK, (e.g. Cuthbertson, 1996).

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 1/RT/00.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/00
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  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  3. repec:bla:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:3:p:495-514 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
  5. Angelo Melino, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 1828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:101:y:1986:i:2:p:211-28 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The predictive power of the money market term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 289-295, June.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
  11. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Peter Kugler, 1988. "An Empirical Note on the Term Structure and Interest Rate Stabilization Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 789-792.
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
  15. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 253-269, September.
  16. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
  17. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
  18. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-37, May.
  19. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-36, July.
  20. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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