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From Various Degrees of Trade to Various Degrees of Financial Integration: What do Interest Rates Have to Say?

Author

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  • Adeline Bachellerie
  • Jérôme Héricourt
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper proposes a systematic study of the degree of financial integration following the degree of trade integration according to Balassa’s (1961) classification, from preferential trading area to complete economic integration. To this end, we exploit all the information contained in interest rates and rely on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates and real interest rate parity. These two conditions are empirically investigated on various regional trade agreements, using cointegration techniques by paying a special attention to potential breaks. Our results show that customs unions, corresponding to step 3 of the Balassa’s classification, seem to be a decisive threshold after which financial integration robustly takes place.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Bachellerie & Jérôme Héricourt & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "From Various Degrees of Trade to Various Degrees of Financial Integration: What do Interest Rates Have to Say?," Working Papers 2009-01, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "How has regionalism in the 1990s affected trade?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2156, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FINANCIAL INTEGRATION; TRADE INTEGRATION; REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT; TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES; REAL INTEREST RATE PARITY;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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